Looking back on recent runnings, I've actually been on a little bit of a role in the Haskell.  In addition to heavy favorites Big Brown and Rachel Alexandra, I've been on Bob Baffert's winners the last two years, and I even remember calling Any Given Saturday the Haskell champ months before he was even entered in the our biggest race.

But this year, I'm a little puzzled. 

Paynter seems logical as Baffert's best shot and the speed of the race.  But with today's news that Gemologist is Haskell bound I now have to give him plenty of consideration.  He was undefeated, after all, when he ran in the Kentucky Derby a few months back.  Oh, and he's trained by Todd Pletcher...that doesn't hurt.

I will admit though that both Nonios and Stealcase have me a little interested.

Hmm.

It's not an easy question as there are so many possible answers:

- The Energy.  From the minute the gates open, there's just a buzz around the track that indicates something special is about to happen.  From the National Anthem to the morning handicapping seminar, there's a definite big-day energy.

- The Undercard Races.  What can you say?  Six supporting stakes races, including three graded events.  That's what I call a good card of racing!

- The Guaranteed Wagering Pools.  Haskell Day features a $100,000 guaranteed 50-cent Pick 5 on Races 6-10 and a $250,000 guaranteed All-Stakes 50-cent Pick 4 on Races 10-13.

- Picnicking With Friends.  Let's be honest.  There could be worse ways to spend a day than in the Monmouth Park picnic area with some burgers and dogs.

- The Haskell Hat.  It's always a must-have. 

A promotion for those of you on-site Haskell Day: the Breeders’ Cup Classic Ownership Challenge.  Simply come to Haskell Day, fill out an entry form (it’s all free, no gimmicks), and drop it off at the Breeders’ Cup tent (located next to the Haskell hat redemption area north of the Grandstand).  By doing so, you will become a “virtual owner” of the horse that wins this year’s Haskell – a Win & You’re In race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  Should the Haskell winner go on to capture the BC Classic, you and whoever else signed up Haskell Day will share $250,000.  That’s pretty cool!!

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Lots of good races from around the country this weekend and already this week.  It may, however, be hard-pressing for a horse to be more impressive than Winter Memories was in Wednesday’s Grade 2 Lake George.  She was under a hammerlock all the way around, checked off heels on the far turn (while still super-restrained), then looped the field and won as easy as possible under a hand ride.  Can you say beast?

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A look ahead to Saturday’s card at Saratoga reveals the Grade 1 Diana on the turf for older fillies and mares.  Maybe it’s just me, but doesn’t every horse’s PP’s in this race look very similar?  Some of the horse’s names even sound/look alike – Zagora, Aruna, Aviate.  Ok, maybe it’s just my brain acting up after a long week.  Anyway, not that I play superfectas, but a horse that would be a must-use for me in such bets would be #2 Justaroundmidnight.  L-O-V-E LOVE the fact that Joe Bravo goes up to ride.  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that all three of Ms. Midnight’s wins – including a G3 score at 26-1 – have come with Bravo in the irons.

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One of my favorite parts of Haskell Day is always seeing the nation’s best 3-year-olds in the paddock.  Seeing Rachel Alexandra was great.  Seeing Rock Hard Ten nearly bump his head on the roof of the saddling area was awesome.  This year, I’m really looking forward to it.  Preakness winner Shackleford could pass for a Roman warhorse.  At today’s press conference, Astrology was described as “regal-looking.”  And trainer Bob Baffert says Coil is a looker as well.  Should be an attractive walking ring.  (PS – I’ll make sure I place myself prominently to even things out a little.)

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We’re three days out, and I’m giving it my first glance now, but don’t we have to do a little Haskell Day handicapping?  Here goes:

In Race 4, #3 Kippers n’ Eggs gets back on turf and gets a big rider switch to Jose Valdivia, Jr.  Watch out!

In Race 5, the Regret Stakes, #8 Bronx City Girl gets the service of Luis Saez, who ships up from Calder to ride for trainer Marty Wolfson.  If memory serves, he had significant trouble coming out of the gate last time.  #3 Hour Glass has the best company lines in the field.

In Race 6, the Jersey Derby, really, really, really like #2 Breathless Storm.  He was a complete powerhouse last out and who was that horse that finished second in his race three back?  Animal who?  In a race that appears to have a lot of early speed, he – along with #7 Rustler Hustler and #8 Beachcombing – seems likely to benefit.

In Race 7, the Majestic Light, #5 Motovato is back and I’m back on him.  He had some traffic trouble of his own last out in the Salvator Mile and will be ridden by Luis Saez – aboard for his most-recent stakes win.

In Race 8, the Lady’s Secret, #10 Quiet Giant finished behind who last time?  Blind who?

The pace looks like it will be a fast one in Race 9, the Oceanport.  #11 Straight Story is posted perfectly to sit and pounce on the expected front runners.  #7 Violon Sacre may be the most talented horse in the race – he hasn’t run in eight months, however.

Race 10, the Teddy Drone, appears to be a blazer as well.  #8 Roaring Lion and #10 Partyallnightlong may be position to get the desired stalking journey.

In Race 11, the Taylor Made Matchmaker, #3 Unbridled Essence is the defending champion and is re-united with Paco Lopez.  Cha-ching!  #11 Christine Daae tries the turf and keeps Joe Bravo.  Interesting…very interesting.

In Race 12, the Resorts Casino Hotel Haskell, #1 Coil – if he can work out a trip from the rail – appears ready to burst onto the 3-year-old picture.  #7 J J’s Lucky Train has the look of a live longshot (the horse he finished second to on Feb. 5 at Aqueduct came back to win the Wood Memorial).  Either of the Kelly Breen entry is a big root for.  How about a cold trifecta of Coil, Shackleford, Pants On Fire…with J J’s Lucky Train in the fourth spot for supers?

In Race 14, the finale, #4 Mata Keranjang has run against some good ones in his two U.S. starts.  He moves way, way up if Breathless Storm wins the Jersey Derby.  #8 Hariolus has very solid company lines.

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And lastly, we mentioned it last week, but a special final shout-out and good luck to Sophia Mangalee who heads to Mongolia this weekend for the world’s longest horse race (630 miles).  We all wish her a safe journey and hope she has the time of her life.  She probably won’t know who wins the Haskell until sometime in late August so nobody spoil it for her.

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Here’s hoping all of you have a fun and profitable Resorts Casino Hotel Haskell Day.  Be sure to leave us a comment and tell us about it. 

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Sunday

Race 2 – Check out jockey Carlos Marquez’s adroit extrication of rail-posted first-timer Zulbaby from untenable position inside pacesetter Crafty Kisses early on the backstretch.  He gave the filly every chance on a strip favoring outside paths, but Zulbaby simply lacked the foundation to hold off Just Do It Please (10 lifetime starts; four of them in 2011) late.

            3^rd-finishing firster Strategic Command was a bit slow to settle, green, altered course to the dullish inside while rallying near mid-stretch, and pulled up very well after the wire.  Trainer Russell Cash’s recent second-timers have been improving big time.

Race 3 – Todd Pletcher-trained firster Space Traveler was honed to a super-fit edge with numerous five-furlong Churchill drills while facing a field made up entirely of firsters who had worked many furlongs fewer than he.  It will be interesting to see how much more room for improvement the son of Malibu Moon possesses.

            3^rd-finsiher Tripendicular did not seem to relish being rushed early to maintain striking position in this abbreviated sprint, managed several subtle runs, and held position gamely through the stretch despite not changing leads.  He’s all about slower, rhythmic paces and steady, sustained runs.  Tripendicular can leap forward with a stretch to two turns.

            4^th-finishing True Awakening lost ground, but rode the outside flow while making his good middle move, finished decently, and pulled up well.  Like all of trainer Gregg Sacco’s newcomers, he’ll advance with continued experience.

            Last-of-eight Montbrooksoregal rushed up on the dull rail following a slow start from his inside draw and disputed the average pace for almost a half-mile.  Maiden claimers could prove an interesting fit.

Race 4 – 6^th-finishing I Did It His Way took the appropriate drop to the basement, but drew into a field full of speed.  The gelding rated and made a decent move when employing that strategy for the first time in his life.  Still, I suspect his true calling is to be alone and in control.

            7^th-finishing Fly Straight is moving around class and distancewise in classic trainer Trish Farro fashion after breaking his maiden in June when aided by a race set-up devoid of serious early foot.  He dueled with, and finished in front of, two much more heavily-bet pace rivals (including the 7/5 favorite) on the stretch-out here despite battling on the dull inside.  Where he truly fits, I really don’t know and I bet Farro isn’t quite sure either – especially since Monmouth has no seven-furlong chute.

Race 6 – 4^th-finishing Our Friend Harvey (second race in about this class after a drop) ran deceptively decently while compromised by ground loss and a hidden (no fractional times available) soft pace.  (How close Matt’s A Giant and Beacon Beach were early is the dead giveaway, but don’t tell anyone!)  He loves the inside or inside-out Bravo trip-masterpieces that can be derived from better post position draws.

            Last of nine Beacon Beach scored twice in 2010 for $7,500 claiming tags (once vs. New Jersey-breds) when going six furlongs on dirt.  He should get seriously, really seriously, competitive when he races under those conditions – or even takes a conditioned claiming plunge to a nickel.

Race 7 – Compare and contrast via race replay the professionalism levels of winner, and 10^th-time starter, D’Cats Meow and 4^th-finishing, 4^th-timer My Place Anytime.  The former came off a fast-paced wire-to-wire score, broke on top, but instantaneously accepted jockey Paco Lopez’s command to take back, relax and rate in complete rhythmic comfort off the embattled leaders.  The latter broke slowly after stumbling, reacted with high and head-bobbing amazement to dirt being kicked in her face, and tired from the effort of rushing into fast fractions while running like a giraffe.

Race 8 – 4^th-finishing P J’s Back flushed such a brilliant turn of foot stretching out in his turf debut that its odds-on trainer Joe Orseno already is thumbing through a condition book looking for a conditioned claiming turf sprint.  Heck, Orseno could even be looking at an allowance race considering how gamely the son of underrated but superb grass influence Put It Back fought the perfect-trip closers when they came to him in the stretch.

Race 9 – 3^rd-finishing, 19-1 Believe In Dancing discovered the benefits of lasix in her 10^th-career start at age four.  Next time, hopefully for her, she’ll discover the benefits of a tactical-trip-enabling outside draw.

Race 12 – Does the ghost of Eddie Arcaro want a piece of him?  What about retired great Laffit Pincay?  I don’t think so.  Jockey Francisco Maysonett is one tough dude to beat when he’s on a game horse in a stretch fight.  Witness the performance of the grim, gritty duo of Maysonett and gelding Oh Oh Bama in holding off the cavalry here.

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Longing for the days when the Resorts Casino Hotel Haskell Invitational was a handicap that assigned real weights to the entrants?  Me, too.  Well, if the year was 1976, this is how I’d assign the packages:

Shackleford                  126

Pants On Fire               122

Ruler On Ice                 121

Coil                            119

Astrology                     118

Joe Vann                      117

Concealed Identity         116

J J’s Lucky Train            115

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Watch the replays of the Grade 1 Man O’ War (Belmont, July 9, Race 9) and the Grade 2 Royal Heroine (Hollywood, July 4, Race 8) – especially noting the stretch runs when respective winners Cape Blanco and Celtic Princess can be fully observed in all their physical glory.  The former is a product of generations of Irish and English breeding stock and the latter, while having a couple of grandparents from the United States, mostly descends from Brazilian antecedents.  Both horses clearly are built more sturdily than their North American-bred competition with thicker bone and more substantial skeletal frames.  Each animal simply overpowered – and out-stayed – its more physically-refined rivals.  Neither Cape Blanco or Celtic Princess would be competitive in a beauty contest for horses conducted in this country – indeed both likely would have been totally shunned by American designer trainers and their slick advisors if they had been offered up at a yearling sale.  Why would anyone want a horse built to improve with maturity, carry steady speed over a route of ground, and designed to thrive in major races for older animals?  What would anyone want with an athlete designed to be a race horse rather than a sales horse?  Even now, as accomplished as they are, the combined “paper” worth of Cape Blanco and Celtic Princess in the United States is likely substantially less than that of dozens of speed-figure-fast-in-one-or-two-sprints juveniles and 3-year-olds that will appear in carefully-managed, perfectly-timed spots between now and next year’s big sophomore events.  There are many problems in this game and one of the biggest is the destructively devolutionary focus, enabled by some end-users, of far too many commercial breeders.

Oh, please let that me the case!!

Imagining that I am swimming in money gets me excited…yeah I guess that would be an obvious statement.  But it’s not excited in the sense of owning a huge house, or being able to go fishing on my huge yacht everyday, or being able to make fun of all my less-wealthy friends. 

I’m more looking forward to owning horses and naming them whatever I want. 

Perhaps some of the following would make the cut:

Van Nostrand (from Seinfeld)

Monchomba (from Seinfeld)

Thispeachissubpar (from Seinfeld)

Baba Ganoush (this classic, pungent Middle Eastern spread is best when refrigerated for three hours prior to serving.)

Burma (from Seinfeld; officially the Republic of the Union of Myanmar is a country in Southeast Asia.)

Don’tyoumeanmyanmar (from Seinfeld; see above)

Hitbyablimp (from…Friends)

Everydayballoons (from Seinfeld)

Movealongbetty (from Seinfeld)

I don’t care who you are, that’s just funny (although I will admit that some prior knowledge of Seinfeld would help you appreciate the humor more)!

Big week coming up.  Let’s have some fun.  Back on Thursday to talk Resorts Casino & Hotel Haskell Invitational.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Sunday, July 17

Race 1 – Masterful, old-school foundation building by trainer John Tammaro, III here bore fruit when frequently tepid-finishing My Honey B went fast early and kept right on going through the wire.  The mare sprinted in her first two starts of the year, had more rest here for her third-off-the-layoff try than she had when second off the bench, and worked longer and sharper than normal before stretching out to the kind of two-turn route that produced her lone previous victory.  Traditional handicapping rules apply to Tammaro’s stock and they run well when common sense says they should.

Race 2 – Shannon Uske swept the daily double with 4-year-old firster Certifiable.  The powerfully-built colt ran like he can come right back to succeed in higher-priced conditioned claimers and has decent grass breeding on both sides.

            Uske is a hard worker who gives 100% on everything she rides.  Her clients tend to be skilled, veteran trainers who are high-quality professionals and people.  By association and accomplishment, the same clearly is true of Uske.

Race 5 – Second-timer Jamzdeanfnklsteen showed vast improvement at 5-1 dropping to maiden claimers and switching to jockey Paco Lopez for master trainer Scott Volk, who won two on the day and had four victories and three runner-up finishes for the three-day weekend.  In addition to Jamzdeanfnklsteen, Volk scored with two big dropdowns, on a second-off-a-layoff horse, and finished second by a nose off a 208-day break.  Simply put, he can do it all.

Race 6 – He was well set up, but Kentucky shipper Sea Gaze won with such easy, sustained acceleration that a big step up into a very aggressive spot could be warranted for the Steve Asmussen-owned and trained gelding.

            Third-off-a-layoff 4^th-finisher Biohazzard put another building block on his foundation and could be ready to drop into a non-winners-of-a-race-in-six-months spot.

Race 7 – When Holmedancer didn’t want to play early, Donya, second off the trainer Ed Coletti $20,000 claim from Christophe Clement, was free to wing clear at a quick but uncontested clip.  The filly has a scopey pedigree and room for additional improvement.  As for the pace scenario here, three speeds might equal a duel, but two expected front-runners often translates to someone changing their style.  6^th-finishing Holmedancer lost ground and raced against a strong inside grain.

Race 9 – Was Primary Witness just so darn good running down a loose, soft-fraction, and even-money pacesetter in Gunfighter or was the latter exposed as suspect going two turns against a quality foe?  I bet the correct answer is a little bit of both, but only the future endeavors of the two competitors will provide the definitive answer.  You want cut-and-dry answers?  Well play Russian roulette with a rubber-faced dart.  This is horse racing and it’s all about gray areas, tough calls, and risk assessment.

Race 12 – Runner-up Big Red Wonder dropped back in for a tag and was tons the best.  She was done in by a hard, three-wide duel that drained her with ground loss and from fighting an inside turf bias.  She can right the wrong stepping back up into a maiden special weight group lacking a killer.

            4^th-finishing Quincy Lee likely will prove best on the Monmouth turf when limited to the one-mile distance.  She was much too wide here to succeed at eight-and-one-half furlongs.

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It’s not just that Blind Luck is really good and seems to win all the photos.  Or that her come-from-behind style is Zenyatta-like.  What she’s really about is doing what a top-class race horse – in the traditional sense – is supposed to do.  She actually seeks out tough spots, runs all across the country, competed right through sore feet earlier in the year (when horses in other barns would have been put away for months or retired), and thrives at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter.  Indeed, the give and take concerning a Saratoga start for Blind Luck and rival Havre de Grace is more about the latter’s camp likely preferring more rest and a shorter distance than it is about general gamesmanship.  As for the two-pound weight difference between the two in the Deleware Handicap: Yes, it was unfair.  And no, it didn’t matter.  Blind Luck and part-owner and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer deserve a special Eclipse Award of Merit for reminding the racing world of how campaigning a top horse is supposed to be done – and for proving that the old ways truly still can work in the modern racing game.  Now, let’s start weighing regular Eclipse Awards towards horses who accept challenges rather than running away and hiding in their stalls.

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The upcoming lasix restrictions for Breeders’ Cup races and the recent proposal to limit its use at Frank Stronach-owned tracks are worthy goals worth aspiring to, in the long-term, by the entire racing industry.  However, lost in the momentum, as it all too often is in this business, is the best interests of customers who must live in the here-and-now before they can survive into the future.  Does it really work for them to play by one set of rules most of the time and then have to guess about what horses and humans will best deal with a great unknown at a series of elite races and at a relatively small group of tracks?  Yes, big change takes time and the ball must start to roll in isolated spots before it can go everywhere, but the great theorists need to come up with a more practical plan that embraces all the game’s interests – now and in the future – rather than just their current crusade.

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Kenny Peck is my friend and also my colleague in videos sponsored by Daily Racing Form and Monmouth Park.  Still, I wouldn’t lie for him.  So, when I say that he’s as good as any handicapper around, I really mean it.  And students of past performance know that I don’t throw such praise loosely.  Peck will be appearing on Friday evening, July 29 at McLoone’s Woodbridge Grille at the Favorites off-track wagering facility in Fords, NJ.  He’ll be talking Resorts Casino Hotel Haskell Invitational, undercard contests, and racing in general.  He’ll also be eating the garden salad.

There is a buffet dinner and a cover charge – call 732-512-5025 for details.

1)Lookin at Lucky – Bob Baffert was definitely the most animated trainer we talked to during Thursday’s press conference – and it wasn’t exactly a good animated.  Perhaps it’s his name, but Lookin at Lucky seems like he just can’t catch a break – and that continued today as he drew the IZOD Haskell rail.  Whether it’s drawing post 1 or mid-race traffic issues, the reigning 2-year-old champ does seem a little snake bit.  HANDICAPPING:  He may have the worst luck, but I think Lookin at Lucky is the best horse in the IZOD Haskell.  Assuming no traffic issues – which isn’t a given from the one hole – I make LAL strictly the one to beat and he’ll be atop my tickets.

2)Afleet Again – Trainer “Butch” Reid downplayed it, jockey Joe Bravo did not, but it has to be at least a moderately big deal that this guy is the only horse stabled at Monmouth Park.  Bravo made the point at the press conference Thursday – if you were running on Sunday, would you rather wake up at 3 am, and ride south from Saratoga (including a trip on the NJ Turnpike), or would you rather roll out of your own bed in the morning and go through a normal pre-race routine?  HANDICAPPING: Afleet Again is taking a big step up in class, but has Monmouth Park’s leading rider Joe Bravo and the home-field advantage.  Will that be enough to win?  I don’t think so.  But it could be enough to hit the board at a big price.

3)Ice Box – According to trainer Nick Zito, the tough-luck Derby runner-up looks absolutely phenomenal.  Zito said in the days following the Belmont Stakes that Ice Box’s bad showing could be chalked up to the heat.  In his final workout on Monday, Ice Box finished ahead of workmate Cool Coal Man, who is a multiple stakes winner and is entered on the Haskell undercard.  HANDICAPPING:  You don’t see many horses win from last in the Haskell, and with that in mind, I hadn’t given Ice Box too much consideration under earlier this week when I read he out-worked “The Coal Man.”  Zito sounded extremely pleased with how the horse looks (which has to be a positive sign), and he was probably the best horse in the Derby, so who knows.  Probably won’t be on the ticket, but definitely wouldn’t be surprised if he won.

4)First Dude – I talked to trainer Dale Romans earlier this week and the quote was, “He was doing great going into the Belmont, and he’s doing just as well heading into this race.”  The Preakness runner-up had a little bit of bad luck Thursday as he drew just inside Our Dark Knight – the other likely speed horse – but Romans does seem confident.  “To be the best, you have to beat the best,” he said.  HANDICAPPING:  Of all the horses in this year’s IZOD Haskell, he is the one I most want to see.  Why?  Supposedly, he is enormous!  I think First Dude has a great chance of winning the Haskell with his gutsy, front-running style.  If he goes down, he’ll go down fighting.

5)Our Dark Knight – Trainer Nick Zito also spoke highly of this recent allowance winner, saying he’s definitely an up-and-coming 3-year-old.  He’s never been worse than second in his career, but also has never run against Grade 1-caliber animals.  HANDICAPPING: What a tough race!  Our Dark Knight is 15-1 on the morning line and he actually has a decent shot in this race.  You have to respect anything Nick Zito sends to the gate, especially in big races, but he won’t be a use for me.

6)Super Saver – One thing I’ve learned over the years is to believe Todd Pletcher when he says something in the media.  According to Pletcher, the Kentucky Derby winner has put on weight since the Triple Crown and has been training very well.  In fact, his work two Sunday’s ago, was the best Pletcher has ever seen from this horse.  Those are the types of comments I like to hear coming into a big race.  HANDICAPPING:  All that being said, I’m not going to be using Super Saver in this race.  Unfortunately, you can’t use every horse, and for better or worse, I’m leaving him off my tickets.  If my recent results are any indications, everyone reading this should run to the windows and bet Super Saver.

7)Uptowncharlybrown – Despite being 15-1 on the morning line, there is one person who is extremely confident in Uptowncharlybrown and that is owner Bob Hutt of Fantasy Lane Stable.  Before being sent to McLaughlin’s barn, Uptowncharlybrown did train at Monmouth Park so it won’t be his first taste of the Shore oval.  HANDICAPPING: Can I just pick all eight of them?  I haven’t been around long enough to know all of racing’s history, but other than the Breeders’ Cup, this might be the toughest handicapping race I’ve ever seen.  I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see Uptowncharlybrown hit the board.

8)   Trappe Shot – Over the past couple weeks, I don’t think I’ve heard a more confident trainer than Kiaran McLaughlin talking about Trappe Shot.  He was confident going into the Long Branch, confident during the race, and very confident after the race and leading upto the IZOD Haskell.  HANDICAPPING: For me, listening to your gut instinct is a big part of handicapping.  During and after the Long Branch, I think sensed an enormous confidence from trainer Kiaran McLaughlin toward Trappe Shot.  He’s never faced this deep of a field, but he’ll be my second choice behind Mr. [Un]Lucky.    

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories

This season’s 3-year-old Thoroughbred crop feels disrespected.  Nobody gets great press exaltation or currently is regarded as a serious Breeders’ Cup Classic candidate.  Maybe the IZOD Haskell will change all of that.  So, let’s play What’s My Whine? 

The panelists are: 

A)Afleet Again 

B)First Dude 

C)Ice Box 

D)Lookin at Lucky 

E)Our Dark Knight 

F)Super Saver 

G)Trappe Shot 

H)Uptowncharlybrown 

The whines are: 

1 – I’m game and versatile and getting better with every race.  I live in Saratoga Springs, but I really like Monmouth.  I’m not afraid of the bigshots.  But something tells me I’m the one who’s going to be mixing it up with them early when they’re fresh and strong.  Then my buddy is going to be charging hard in support when things slow down.  Support.  Yeah.  Support. 

2 – Sure, some of my rivals might have more raw talent, scope for improvement, and sexier veneers.  But my mind and personality are in leagues of their own.  I do the little things right and have the mental toughness of a commando.  And hey, it’s not like I need plastic surgery either.  I know I’m not unbeatable, but anyone who does take me will have to run a true, Grade 1 race – something very few of my peers so far have been able to do. 

3 – I just love to run.  That song they’ll play before the race is really about me.  Wish the thing was two miles.  But it ain’t.  At one mile and an eighth, I’ll have to behave at the gate and try – even though it’s against my nature – to save some ground and stay straight in the lane.  Yeah, I’ll admit it.  Bad behavior has cost me races.  But I’m better than people think I am and I will be passing some expended hotshots in the homestretch money run. 

4 – I’ve been treated like I’m special for my entire racing life and as a result some folks think I’m a little soft.  But I’ve put on a super show every time this year – just not in the big time.  The locals tried ganging up on me last race.  Pinned me to a dull rail.  Ha!  How dare they challenge me with their inferior skills!  I showed ‘em.  Won for fun and could have opened up even more.  Now’s my time.  The naysayers will have eggs dripping down their face on Sunday! 

5 – I’m bigger and better-looking than my namesake, but maybe not as versatile.  I don’t turn well or focus when dirt is getting kicked in my face – like you would!? – but put me on the lead or pressing the pace on the outside and I’m as tough and tenacious as a Bostonian in Mohawk garb.  Question is, can I get over the top in this party? 

6 – I mean, I just don’t know what happened last time.  I was galloping smoothly along and – whoosh!  Lucky no one got hit.  Anyway, now I’m refreshed and looking to develop a consistent running style.  Mid-pack grinder sounds about right and the pace scenario could play to my strength.  And remember, I’ve played with Trappe Shot on many a morning.  I know I can run with him! 

7 – I’m really not sure why I’m coming to Jersey.  But I just follow orders.  I love roomier tracks and longer stretches.  But I also adore pace meltdowns and maybe they’ll be more speed here than in the Jim Dandy.  Now don’t get me wrong, I want my bud to run well at Saratoga, but this is a competition for the 3-year-old championship.  I gotta trust my people.  They tell me the Shore’s been kinder than usual to my style.  Sure hope so – keep the tractors in the barn! 

8 – I like my rest.  Easy trips are great.  Shiny, sealed surfaces are my rose garden.  So what!  I’m athletic, adaptable, and pretty darn good on just about any day.  And nine furlongs, I’ll let you in on a little secret, truly is my best game on a clear afternoon.  And, even better, I’m really, really suited by the tight contours of Monmouth Park.  Just hope I’m not so fresh that I pull and tug instead of relaxing and rating! 

Match up the panelists with their whines and win valuable prizes of handicapping information and insight.  And, by Sunday evening, respect for someone will materialize in the form of a big check and a leg up on a championship.  

Ex-Monmouth Park employee and current TVG talent Matt Carothers made the trip from California this week for Rachel Alexandra’s return and it was great to meet him and see him in action.  Matt is one of the few people I’ve ever met who makes everything he says entertaining.  He could be selling jewelry on QVC and I would watch because of his personality.  Not to mention, he is an extremely good handicapper.  Those of you who saw Brad Thomas’ “Shades Off” videos on Saturday and Sunday morning could probably imagine, but not laughing out loud (for the most part) while holding the camera for those segments was one of the hardest things I’ve ever had to do.  Here’s hoping Mr. Carothers is back at Monmouth Park very soon.

As for Rachel Alexandra, her Lady’s Secret win was a “TCB” kind of effort – “takin’ care of business.”  Did I honestly think she would win by more?  Yes.  But it wasn’t like she was tooth and nail to get her nose down on the wire.  Not that I expected them to say anything different, but the connections after the race were very happy with Rachel’s effort.  I talked to jockey Calvin Borel, who said “Rachel is back.”  I don’t think it’s fair to say that Rachel is back to her dominant 2009 form, but it was nice to see her in the winner’s circle again – and judging from the ovation, the crowd surely enjoyed her return.    

This upcoming week should also be a doozy as we’re getting close to a little race we here at Monmouth Park like to call the IZOD Haskell.  With a field likely to include Kentucky Derby 1-2 finishers Super Saver and Ice Box AND Preakness 1-2 finishers Lookin at Lucky and First Dude AND the up-and-coming Trappe Shot, this is setting up to be one heck of a race.  By the time Haskell Day roles around, I will have worked 12 straight days, but I have a feeling it’s going to be worth it!!

Brad and I will return on Thursday with more Haskell happenings.  We should have some pretty good info as Thursday is the Haskell Press Conference.  As always, please feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts on Rachel’s performance and anything related to the upcoming IZOD Haskell.  

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Rachel Alexandra was professional in her Lady’s Secret victory, but hardly spectacular.  Giving only five pounds to a runner-up she would have been conceding at least 15 pounds to if the race was an old-school handicap, the camp lacked her A+ Game turn-of-foot.  Frankly, I was expecting just a bit more.  She reminded me of Spectacular Bid’s win in the Iselin at the tail of his career.  Runner-up Queen Martha obviously is a filly of graded quality with future options on both dirt and turf.  Third-finishing Ask The Moon wan her heart out while out-classed, but showed she truly can rate and also is back in peak form.

The Haskell Invitational originated as a handicap and many years was the first race ever contested by top members of a 3-year-old crop under such conditions.  Here are my theoretical weights for 2010’s edition:

Lookin at Lucky       123
Super Saver           121
Ice Box                  120
Trappe Shot           120 
First Dude               119
Afleet Again            116
Our Dark Knight       115
Uptowncharlybrown  114

Scale weight is 126, so top-weight Lookin at Lucky’s substantially below par assignment, and the tight-spread among the top five, is indicative of the 2010 3-year-old crop’s present standing against past generations.

Trip Notes

July 23

Race 8 – Beautiful Life finally improved 4th time out in 2010 despite backstretch traffic and racing on a dull rail.  She finished decently, too, despite being a better fit going a shorter, one-mile distance.

Race 10 – Beyondallboundrys took the Dearly Precious Stakes with a sharp display of light-footedness, high cruising speed, and multiple runs.  Her pedigree says two turns and she likely has graded ability going a middle distance.

July 24

Race 9 – Quepos made a couple moves despite post and traffic issues.  Could be best stretching back out at this stage of his career.

Race 9 – Ready to Dazzle was run off his feet early while stepping way up in class and would be well-suited by a drop to combination conditioned claiming company.  Even overmatched here, he managed to finish with an honest late run. 

Race 10 – Led Advantage was rank, unruly, and on the worst part of the track off the stretch-out, yet still held amazingly well in the stretch.  She needs to get off the rail.
 

Ask those athletes what it’s like to perform in front of a packed house of adoring fans – what it’s like to look into the stands and see hundreds of signs with their names on them.

It’s a rare athlete who can make an impact on an audience – a rare athlete who can elicit such emotion from a group of people.

Derek Jeter does it every night in the Bronx. Mark Messier did it for 10 years in front of the Rangers faithful. And Rachel Alexandra overcame an afternoon thunderstorm and the eventual 3-year-old champion to do it last year on Haskell Day.

If you had to label a “home track” for superstar filly and Reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, it would probably be Churchill Downs – the site of her 20 ¼-length Kentucky Oaks triumph last season.

But it’s hard to envision a bigger home track advantage or a more thunderous ovation than the one given to Rachel last year on Haskell Day.

Signs read, “I run like a girl…try to keep up.” T-shirts read, “Girls rule, guys drool. Go Rachel.”

The crowd that attended the 2009 Haskell came to cheer on royalty. Rachel Alexandra had won three consecutive Grade 1 races, including becoming the first filly in over 80 years to win the Preakness.

Maybe it was the fact that she beat the Kentucky Derby winner on national television. Maybe it was the filly versus the boys angle. Maybe it was charismatic jockey Calvin Borel.

Whatever it was, the Steve Asmussen-trained filly packed Monmouth Park with racing fans and Rachel fans alike.

There were lines for “Run Like a Girl” t-shirts. After every race, there were people asking Borel for autographs, which he graciously signed. And when Rachel won the Haskell – soundly defeating eventual Champion 3-Year-Old Summer Bird – the crowd reaction was simply electrifying.

The second Rachel crossed the wire, she became a Haskell legend. She joined Hall of Fame member Serena’s Song as the only fillies to win Monmouth’s biggest race. And the Monmouth Park fans were sure to convey their gratitude.

Spurred on by an exhilarated Borel, the loyal Monmouth Park fans – not at all hampered by earlier torrential downpours – serenaded Rachel Alexandra into the winner’s circle with a heroine’s welcome.

Saturday, Rachel Alexandra returns to Monmouth Park for the $400,000 Lady’s Secret Stakes. She returns a Haskell Champion and a Horse of the Year.

There will inevitably be catchy t-shirts and flashy signs. There will be autograph seekers and picture requesters. There might even be a celebrity or two.

Maybe it’s because Rachel’s a filly. Maybe it’s her personable jockey.

Or maybe Rachel Alexandra is one of those rare athletes who can impact an audience – an athlete who can entertain, energize and inspire all at the same time.

One thing Monmouth Park fans know for sure: she’s back.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

While the Haskell Invitational has been renowned for its importance in helping to define the 3-year-old crop since its first running in 1968, its history also provides hard examples of the evolution of handicapping theory.

In 1981, the notion of track bias was just beginning to creep into mainstream horseplaying. The Haskell had a 6-horse field, but the race really boiled down to a battle between 1980 Juvenile champion Lord Avie, a true stretch-runner, and up-and-coming speedster Five Star Flight, who figured to make a clear early lead and then pray for the wire.

After morning training had ended and the gates were opened that August day, the dirt surface was manicured with far greater intensity than for a normal racing card. The tractors just went around and around. Later in the day, the competitive action verified any speculation the course was super speed-favoring. If you believed in biases, Five Star Flight simply could not lose. He didn’t – as an 8/5 overlay in essentially a two-horse race.

In 1982, late-developing Midwesterner Wavering Monarch shipped in to challenge established East Coast stars Aloma’s Ruler and Linkage, who had finished first and second respectively in the Preakness. A few years earlier, his one-mile workout in something like 1:35 and change notwithstanding, Wavering Monarch would have been dismissed at 4-1 or 5-1 in the face of such name-brand recognition.

But the age of speed figures had arrived and enough people now used them to make the colt a close, 5-2 third choice on the basis of his big numbers versus average fields. Wavering Monarch was monstrous in overcoming a tepid pace and very wide trip to wear down Aloma’s Ruler and jockey Angel Cordero, Jr.

By 1985, historical trends were becoming popular tools for handicapping human sports, but not so much horse racing. That soon would change.

In 1974, Little Current ran in the Haskell off a 56-day layoff following his Belmont Stakes score. He lost (2nd) at even-money.

In 1983, Slew O’ Gold competed in the Haskell off a 49-day respite following his second-place finish in the Belmont. He finished 6th at even-money.

This was an era in which recency was a positive and top trainers honed their horses to a sharp point through intense racing action. Brief layoffs were something that had to be overcame, rather than being the building-up advantage they are to today’s super trainers.

In 1983, old-school conditioner Sonny Hine’s Bet Big raced at Bowie two weeks before the Haskell and finished second at 55-1, by a diminishing neck, to Preakness winner Deputed Testamony.

In 1985, Spend a Buck was the .70-1 Haskell favorite despite a 61-day layoff following his gut-wrenching Jersey Derby triumph. The second longest shot on the board at 35-1 was the Hine-trained Skip Trial, who had last competed two weeks previously at Bowie. The confluence of two trends yielded a $73 upset.

In 1982, trainer Woody Stephens took the Belmont Stakes with the physically brittle (By 1980’s standards – today he’d be called an iron horse!) Conquistador Cielo a mere five days after the colt romped against older horses in the Metropolitan Mile. Indeed, running back even top-level horses super quickly was a common practice back in the day. Many live Belmont Stakes contenders “prepped” in the Met, and the Derby Trial, once upon a time contested on the Monday before the Derby, was routinely used as a final sharpener by Calumet-owned stars.

In the early years of the Haskell, four victories had been running back on 10 days or less of rest. The last such Haskell champion was 11-1 Wise Times (eight days), who was conditioned by Phil Gleaves – then a young Woody Stephens protégé. After 1986, no other Haskell winner would ever be returning in 10 days or less. Ah, modern racing – less, apparently, isn’t always best.
 

Word around the press office is that Rachel Alexandra will arrive from Saratoga on Tuesday and school in the Monmouth Park paddock at an undetermined time on Friday.

I had the pleasure of talking to a pair of the nicest horsemen in the industry on Saturday.  In the morning, I asked Calvin Borel all about his upcoming mounts on Rachel Alexandra and Super Saver.  Borel is one of the nicest jockeys I’ve ever talked to – even though it’s a little weird to be called sir at such a young age.  Saturday afternoon I had trainer Patrick Biancone after he took the day’s second stakes race.  Maybe it’s the French accent that adds something to it, but Patrick was one of the nicest people I’ve ever talked to. 

A horse to watch in the future: Check the Label.  This filly won a Grade III stakes at Colonial Saturday in extremely impressive fashion and has a bright future in Grade II or Grade I events.  Keep an eye out. 

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

I was watching a re-broadcast of the British Open on ESPN at about 9:30 last night when one of the categories on the news crawl at the bottom of the screen flashed “Horse.”  My immediate thought was wondering what ESPN-worthy race was run on Saturday.  Nothing came to mind.  Then anxiety hit.  What happened to Rachel Alexandra?  Is Zenyatta okay?  Did someone big die?  Fortunately, all was well.  It had just slipped my mind that a Breeders’ Cup Win & You’re In race had taken place at Philadelphia Park.  The crawl reported that A.U. Miner (who was beaten 8 ¾ lengths at 83-1 five weeks ago in the Grade I Stephen Foster) had won the (ungraded) Greenwood Cup and thus now was Breeders’ Cup eligible (no mention of which Breeders’ Cup race of division. 

Nothing beats the modern media at grasping disinterested newsworthiness, a sense of proportion, and precise context.  There was no mention of a slew of better horses who captured stronger, more important races all across the country yesterday.

Check out jockey Garrett Gomez winning Saturday’s 7^th race with Soda Pop Kid.  The easy control he had slipping the gelding outside and back inside in upper to mid-stretch, and then his wide array of holds, rein crosses, and whipping styles – all delivered in rapid-fire and ultra-smooth fashion – reeked of world class talent and skill.

Trainer Paul Kopaj is low-profile, but highly skilled with all kinds of horses.  His three victories this meet have been with a built-up claimer off a five-week respite, an aggressive (basement) spotted first timer, and a raced-into-peak-form maiden stretch-out.

Trip Notes 

July 16 

3^rd Race – Souma battled tag-team pressure on a dull rail and held better than she had been recently.  An outside draw would help.

6^th Race – Concorde’s Pastry was compromised by impossible outside draws in recent routes and while she appreciated the drop here, the six-furlongs was too short.  A two-turn claimer with a decent post gives her a speed-popping chance.

12^th Race – Masqued Tsaar raced against biases in his last two and here he also sharpened up with an improved pace figure.  He needs a weak field, but he could be ready to stretch back out.

July 17 

6^th Race – First-timer Pishogue was green and in need of schooling, but was able to finish decently after making a couple of bursts.  Overmatched Arise Sir Knight raced gamely, likely moved well forward, and should be toughened up nicely for a return to Colonial.

12^th Race – Hard-used routing (again) Wild Doone gamely passed his pace-involved rivals while well-beaten by the closers.  He’s dangerous with a real class drop.

Famous birthdays on July 16 include comedian Will Ferrell, Michael Flatley (Lord of the Dance), and popcorn-hero Orville Redenbacher.

Songs that reached #1 on July 16 include Bette Davis Eyes (1981), by Kim Carnes; Bye Bye Love (1957), by The Everly Brothers; and Bad, Bad Leroy Brown (1973), by Jim Croce.

With all of those brilliantly-researched nuggets of history notwithstanding, July 16, 2010 is a pretty special day in my life: It’s the 25^th anniversary of something that we’re not going to talk about.  And it’s the fifth anniversary of one of the biggest reasons why I’m at where I’m at today:

On Saturday, July 16, 2005, I turned 20 years old.  Being extremely superstitious, I was really looking forward to that year because the number 20 has always been good to me.  It was my baseball number from the time I was 10 until I graduated high school.  It continues to be my lucky number to this day.  And it was even the number of the plane that single-handedly destroyed the alien spaceship at the end of Independence Day – one of my favorite movies of all time.

I knew something good was going to happen that year.  I just didn’t know it would happen so quickly. 

First the first time ever on a non-Haskell Day, I had advanced plans to spend Saturday, July 16, 2005 at Monmouth Park.  The reason: Hotstufanthensome was running in the Elkwood Stakes.  I had bet on him (purely because of his name) when he won an allowance race on Haskell Day 2004.  I then made a spur-of-the-moment decision to go to the track on June 26, 2005 when I saw his name in the Monmouth Park entries in that morning’s Asbury Park Press.

Following his win on June 26, I tried to find out where Hotstufanthensome was running next – that was the first time I ever did any sort of racing research.  Through a combination of Monmouth Park barn notes and Daily Racing Form articles, I learned that the Elkwood was the expected next target.  Passing on a day of fishing – which is no small feat in the Skirka household – my dad and I decided to instead spend the day at Monmouth Park.  And what a day it turned out to be. 

I vividly remember standing by the paddock waiting for Hotstufanthensome to come into the saddling area.  At that point in time, I wasn’t the most knowledgeable person in the world about racing – in fact, far from it.  But what I saw next remains to this day one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen. 

Hotstufanthensome entered the walking ring with the swagger of Muhammad Ali before a big fight.  He wasn’t “on his toes,” he was dancing.  Just by looking at him and the way he was acting, I knew he was going to win.  What happened next, didn’t help to change my opinion.

Hotstufanthensome was saddled and return to parade around the walking ring while his trainer Norman Pointer gave directions to jockey Rajiv Maragh.  As the horses waited to be mounted, Pointer’s assistant walked to the rail of the walking ring – I’m assuming to one of his friends – pointed to Hotstufanthensome, and actually said the phrase, “Bet on this horse.”  It was like I was watching some sort of bad Disney movie.  Here I am, at the track for the first “real” time – all for one specific horse – and that horse comes in looking like synch winner with assistant trainers begging friends to go to the windows.  I was planning on betting anyway, but after witnessing those turn of events, I pulled an extra ten out of my wallet, and off we went to watch the race.

I didn’t know it when I went home that night and had a piece of ice cream cake, or even a month later, but July 16, 2005 was a pretty important date in my life.  I think it was the first time that I realized horse racing is more than just beautiful animals running in circles.  I realized that – just like baseball, football, etc. – horse racing is filled with athletes who I could follow closely and become a fan of.  Just like I cheered for Warrick Dunn, Grant Hill and Mike Mussina in their respective sports, I started cheering for Hotstufanthensome.

In the beginning, I cheered for Hotstuf because of his name.  But eventually I fell in love – not because he won me money, but because I saw in him some of the things that I liked most about myself.  Despite his name, Hotstufanthensome wasn’t the prettiest horse stabled at Monmouth Park.  He wasn’t bulging with muscles.  And he didn’t sell for $1 million at auction.  But he was blue-collar through and through.  He did give absolutely everything he had every single time.  And he hated to lose.  I remember a trainer once telling me that after a narrow loss, Hotstuf returned to his barn kicking and squealing because he didn’t get his picture taken after the race.  Let’s just say I can relate to that.       

As has been well-documented on this blog, my passion for Hotstufanthensome eventually transformed into a passion for the entire sport of horse racing.  Tomorrow, exactly five years after that historic day, I’ll be working at Monmouth Park Racetrack during a twilight Friday card of the $50 million Elite Summer Meet – who woulda thunk it?  As for Hotstufanthensome, he was retired earlier this year and is enjoying life on a farm somewhere.  He never even knew I existed, but I owe so much that I have to him.  

On Friday, July 16, 2010, I’ll celebrate a couple things, most important being Hotstufanthensome’s win in the 2005 Elkwood Stakes.  It was the second time I had ever been to Monmouth Park on a non-Haskell Day.  It was probably one of the biggest reasons why I am where I am today.  And it was one of the best birthday presents I’ve ever gotten.

Brad Thomas’ Why I Like Horse Racing Part III 

One of the beauties of horse racing is that things have a way of evening out.  You just have to hang around long enough to give the worm a chance to turn.

Years ago, I would take a back staircase up to the top floor of a racetrack after watching the horses in the paddock before each race.  Every once in a while, I would cross paths with the bugler as he was going out to or returning from playing the call to post.

He’d ask who I liked.  I would give him the winner.  EVERY SINGLE TIME!  At 50-1.  At 5-1.  At 20-1.  At 2-1.  Sometimes the double.  At other times the exacta.  It didn’t matter if I bet it myself or passed the race, whatever I told him was golden.

The guy never said thank you.  Never bought me a ticket.  Never sent me a fruit basket for Christmas.  Oh, but when he’d see me turning the corner, he would unconsciously genuflect.  But then, like any self-respecting racetracker, he’d catch himself and merely drool with anticipation and shake with greed.

I knew another track worker.  The nicest guy in the world.  We’d buy each other coffee and exchange small favors.  I really liked him.  But I couldn’t give him a winner if both our lives depended on it.  It was absolutely brutal.  Sometimes the horses managed to finish the race.  Sometimes they didn’t.  I apologized profusely and repeatedly.  I spent extra time handicapping and went out of my way to find him when I thought I had something good.  It just didn’t matter.  Any other horse first, my pick for him – nowhere!

The fellow bore the barren burden like a prince.  He never complained.  Never mocked me.  Never ran away when he saw me.  Indeed, he always was uncommonly pleasant.  What a great guy.

Then one day he told me he was leaving for a new job.  We reminisced a bit and I again apologized for my pitiful picks.  He chuckled a little, smiled sweetly, and gave me a slight wink.

“Ah, don’t sweat it,” he soothed.  “I’m best friends with the bugler.”

A lot has already been said – and I’m sure will continue to be said – about Saturday’s Long Branch Stakes winner Trappe Shot.  I figured I might as well add my two cents.  After watching the race live, seeing trainer Kiaran McLaughlin’s reactions both during and after the race, and watching the replay, I offer this analysis:

I think no matter the outcome of the Long Branch, Trappe Shot was going to run in the IZOD Haskell.  After being able to sit back and analyze Saturday’s happenings, I think McLaughlin has known all along that Trappe Shot is a serious animal.  I base this on his very scientific in-race body language and extremely confident post-race quotes.  I had half an eye on McLaughlin throughout the entire running of the Long Branch and he was the exact opposite of most trainers who win stakes races.  He wasn’t standing up banging his program; he was sitting close to the television watching every move Trappe Shot made.  And he was on his way to the winner’s circle before Trappe Shot even hit the wire.  After the race, McLaughlin said if it wasn’t for some early physical issues, Trappe Shot would have been a major Kentucky Derby contender.  When I watched the replay of the Long Branch, it seemed to me that jockey Alan Garcia gave Trappe Shot an absolutely perfect “schooling” ride.  Garcia kept Trappe Shot behind horses, held him inside of rivals instead of opening up, and left something in the tank in the stretch.  He’s likely to take a lot of money in the IZOD Haskell, but Trappe Shot has a serious chance to upset Super Saver, First Dude, Lookin at Lucky and the rest of the field come August 1.

It seemed like the whole world was on edge Thursday night as Lebron James kidnapped ESPN to make his worldly-important announcement about playing for the Miami Heat.  While there’s no arguing that James is one of the three most talented players in the NBA, I will argue that Saturday’s news from Miami could have more of an impact on them winning an NBA title: free agent Derek Fisher was in town to meet with Heat management.  Fisher is the prototypical blue-collar, winning player and his addition to Miami would guarantee an NBA title.  I honestly think the starting five of Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Derek Fisher and Brian Skirka could win a championship. 

Does anyone out there have any advice about how to get out of a handicapping slump?  It’s been a rough couple weeks for the Skirka selections, culminating with yesterday’s failed Pick 4 attempt at Calder, where I got knocked out by D’Funnybone losing at odds of 1-9.  You know it’s going bad when you can’t even rest assured singling a 1-9 shot in a four-horse field.  I’ve tried using different betting machines, I’ve tried watching the races on different TVs, and I’ve even tried a necklace made entirely of garlic.  I’m running out of ideas on how to actually cash a ticket!

After a recent Mets game, I left the SNY post-game show on in the background as I worked on the computer.  The question posed by the host was “which Mets pitcher do you have the most confidence in right now?”  Everyone who answered said either Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey or Jon Niese.  Excuse me, but when did the Mets get rid of Johan Santana?  The short sidedness of the media drives me absolutely insane.  I don’t care if Santana loses his next 20 starts – he is far and away the Mets ace and one of the top 5 pitchers in the National League. 

I missed the Grade I Man o’War yesterday when it was run live, but tuned in just in time to see Gio Ponti in the winner’s circle.  When I got home, I watched the replay and was extremely impressed with what I saw.  Last behind absolutely dawdling fractions, Gio Ponti eased out in the stretch and exploded past the Naipal Chatterpaul-trained frontrunner with minimal encouragement.  (I knew I would get Naipal Chatterpaul into a blog at some point!!)  Make no mistake, despite only one win in his last six starts, Gio Ponti is BY FAR the best American-based turf horse in training right now.

If you’re a regular reader of the Monmouth Park blog, you’ve noticed I’ve changed things up a little bit the last couple of weeks.  I personally enjoy the shorter, hodgepodge blogs where I can touch on some different material.  However, I want this blog to be what YOU want to read, so please let me know if you don’t like the new style and would prefer if I return to more hardcore handicapping.  Brad and I have noticed a drop in the amount of comments we’ve been receiving recently, too.  We’d love to hear from you guys about any and all topics!!  I think the back and forth makes it more fun for all involved.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

It’s not only the bountiful betting product that’s different at Monmouth Park this year, it’s the people wagering on it as well.  When you combine multiple viable options in a given race with simulcast and account bettors unfamiliar with the circuit, the number of potential overlays increases exponentially.  There’s no telling where or when they might appear, but a player should be prepared and aware.

Take, for example, the card of July 9.  In the 1^st race, the strong 2.30-1 second choice was a first-time starter trained by J. Willard Thompson, who wins with a debut horse about once every three years.  His Porchini Prince ran well, but was beaten a neck by Saratoga Louie, the 4.80-1 third choice.  The latter was the only experienced member of the 2-year-old New Jersey-bred field and was dropping from open company – which was the exact pattern of the 7-1 filly winner of this state-bred race’s counterpart on July 2.  Additionally, Saratoga Louie was working in sharply improved fashion, probably with his new blinkers, and clearly was listed in the short comments of the past performances as having raced on the rail at a time early in the meet when the inside was dull virtually every day.  Basic Handicapping 101 rules do apply even in baby races full of firsters!

In Race 3, Very Sweet deserved to be the heavy favorite, but Classofsixtythree should have been second choice and/or no more than 7-2.  Instead, she was the 6.60-1 third choice.  Debonair Darling, the 3.80-1 second choice, is a speed filly who would have had to duel and put away the .70-1 fave and also hold off the closers in order to win.  Conversely, Classofsixtythree is a closer who figured to benefit from two sharp rivals sharing a style that could lead to their mutual destruction.  Styles, and how they interact with each other, are key in determining what prices horses truly are worth!

In Race 5, A Unique Treasure, a three-time winner at the highly specialized conditions of five furlongs on turf, was the 5.30-1 fourth choice.  The 3.70-1 second choice was Pointing North, who never even had raced before at five furlongs on turf much less ever had won at it.  Experience competing in such a unique contest almost always trumps perceived class on this circuit!

Potential Stakes Horses to Watch 

Simmstown (Churchill, June 26, Race 5) showed boundless reserves of energy while fighting through repeated episodes of race traffic and personal inexperience.  Will really get a chance to shine going long later in the year.

Z Appeal (Churchill, July 2, Race 5) won’t be running for a claiming tag anytime soon after taking dirt, accelerating like a motorcycle, and running through the wire in his debut.  Moves like a turf horse and has much sneaky grass in his pedigree.

Wickedly Perfect (Hollywood, June 27, Race 2) has an unlikely pedigree for one who showed such speed going five furlongs in her debut.  She moves with uncommon fluidity for a horse so quick and is heads and shoulders the best synthetic filly prospect I’ve seen so far this year in California.

Trappe Shot (Monmouth Park, July 10, Race 11, the Long Branch Stakes) was able to continue his schooling, out-gear a very talented albeit inexperienced Southern Ridge, and still have a burst (or, more likely, two) left to pull away from well-seasoned Nacho Friend.  Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin’s ultra-patient handling was validated by a colt now possessing a huge chance in the Grade I IZOD Haskell Invitational!

First off, and obviously most importantly, why are “Lebron,” “James,” and “King” the three most spoken words in all of news this week?  When he finally makes a decision (I guess that would be Thursday at 9 pm) then it will be news.  Does ESPN really have to have a reporter in every possible landing place for the “King?”  (And by the way, Lebron is obviously a great player, but shouldn’t you have to win, I don’t know, at least a game in the NBA Finals to earn that nickname?  If Lebron is the King, what is two-time NBA Champion Adam Morrison?  Czar Morrison?)  How many “experts” can sports news shows put on to guess where Lebron will end up?  That’s really must-not watch television – people offering their opinions on what Lebron James is thinking!!  Really!?!?  I’d rather watch qualifying for the Nathan’s hot dog eating contest than those weenies.

On Tuesday, I went out fishing on my favorite party boat out of Point Pleasant for the first time this year.  It was at least 100 degrees and the combination of sweat, clam juice, and conger eel slime (that’s the real winner right there) made for a very slippery afternoon.  But one thing I didn’t mind was the heat.  I’ll admit it was very hot – but would you prefer it was 38 degrees, raining, and dark at 4:18 pm.  I’ll take the heat over the winter any day.

I was a little disappointed to look at the field for the Grade I Man o’War Stakes at Belmont on Saturday.  Gio Ponti is on the morning line at 1-2 – that .5 to 1.  It’s a shame that there aren’t enough solid turf horses around right now to spice up the division’s top races.  I miss the Einstein’s, English Channel’s and even Presious Passion’s of the world.  With all due respect to his seven competitors, but as soon as Gio Ponti breaks cleanly from the gate, that race is pretty much over.

Don’t blame the heat on Friday if you go online at 1:10 pm to check the results of Monmouth’s first race and you don’t see anything.  The twilight racing experiment begins tomorrow at Monmouth Park.  First race 2:10 pm.

Pretty close to every week, I find a new favorite song.  This week’s tune is “Misery” by Maroon 5.  One word: wow.

I was told I could make it official today.  The giveaway for Rachel Alexandra’s return to Monmouth Park will be a T-shirt. 

If you, or anyone you know, are from the Seattle area, have them turn on the Emerald Downs Fox Sports Radio show on Saturday morning around 11 am eastern.  A certain Monmouth Park Blogging “celebrity” may or may not be making an appearance (well, you won’t see me, but you’ll hear me) to talk about the day’s Pick 5 sequence and stakes action.  Should be fun. 

Pretty much a lock to be mentioned on the radio show is Battlefield morning line favorite Banrock.  He’s one of my favorite horses, and I’m looking forward to seeing him again this weekend.

Either before or after the Battlefield, I need to find Banrock’s trainer Tom Bush to see if he is wearing a cape and/or utility belt.  Last weekend, I said hello to Bush in the paddock before the Salvator Mile.  I then walked directly to the administration building where who other than Tom Bush was walking out the door.  How did that happen?  Tom Bush may in fact be Batman!!

Life lesson/cliché of the week:  you only live once.  Unless you’re a character from ABC’s Flashforward, none of us know how long we have left.  Make sure you live life to the fullest, do what you want to do, and don’t get sucked in to having other people waste your time.  Sometimes you have to cut certain things or certain people loose and focus on what makes your life more enjoyable.  Some things or people just aren’t worth wasting your time with.  Sometimes it takes a little while to realize you should pull the cord, but when you do, yank it like you’re starting a mower and spend more time with the things or people that make you happy.  All of our time is too precious to be wasted on minutia.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Trip Notes 

July 2 

Race 2 – Go Perfect was much improved, finished decently, and pulled up well.  He’ll be rounding to form as the conditioned claiming fields thin.

Race 3 – Bestcasescenario, a first-time starting juvenile, was slow to settle, but showed good acceleration when middle-moving.

Race 7 – Jersey-bred, 2-year-old firster Mo Sunny Day showed promise on a dull rail for a barn lethal when dropping to maiden claimers.

July 3 

Race 2 – Dahliatrickdecat was very green in her debut, but displayed real ability for her low-profile outfit.

Race 5 – Sandinershoes, surprisingly nimble for a mare of her size, can both accelerate mid-race and finish well.  She can develop into a top New Jersey-bred.

Race 8 – Fore Pals made multiple moves and still finished decently in his needed last when second off a long layoff.

Race 9 – Cactus Charlie prematurely middle-moved wide into the fastest part of the pace behind two stakes quality rivals.

Race 11 – Gone Astray pulverized the field at a mile distance well short of his best and should develop into a Grade I force at nine furlongs or more.

July 4 

Race 2 – New claim Backbackgone finished vigorously going too short and should fit well on the drop and/or stretch.

Race 6 – Somolia had no chance given her trip and the lack of pace.  An additional furlong would be a big help.

Race 6 – Firster Desert Witch had a lot of run and showed grit fighting through multiple adverse situations. 

Race 10 – Mystic Miracle had no room while full of run in deep stretch, but continued his improvement.

July 5 

Race 3 – National Kid might have had an easy trip, but he was playing around all race and moves super fluidly.  He has Grade II potential, or higher, on firm ground.

Race 6 – Vengeful Wildcat showed athleticism, quickness, stamina and a relatively-lengthy stride.  Dead on the board at 20-1 for a barn that normally is well-bet, he had tons of room to improve – especially if he learns to turn a tad better.  Legit futures factor for long, one-turn Belmont races.

Race 6 – Meistersinger was green, but good-finishing in his debut and wants two turns – like his dam. 

Race 10 – Erstwhile grinder Fantistico Roberto sure learned to quicken second-time blinkers and first-time stretching to nine furlongs!

Did You See of Hear That? 

In the 3^rd race on July 3, jockey Elvis Trujillo and 9-1 Destinedtobemine – despite breaking a bit slowly – beating Eibar Coa and 1.10-1 favorite Peace Talker to prime, pace-pressing position just off the flank of a 24-1 early leader?  The former has a perfect trip while the latter was hung wide to out-of-the-trifecta oblivion.

In the 4^th race on July 4, jockey John Velazquez – knowing he had a long run to the first turn – coolly allowing slow-breaking Austintatious to creep up into super striking position without hard use or excessive ground loss?  Velazquez also smoothly settled his fresh mount on the backstretch when the classy horse threatened to get rank.

In the 5^th race on July 4, jockey Roberto Alvarado using a strong combination of right-handed whipping, left-handed striking, reins crossing, and hand urging to cajole weakening Our Eponene into holding on for a dead-heat victory?  Alvarado always has been a hugely underrated finisher who wins much more than his fair share of photos.  (Jose Lezcano was on the co-winner.)

In the 11^th race on July 4, announcer Larry Collmus calling Machismo the winner just past the sixteenth pole?  Runner-up closer Love Cypress still appeared to have momentum and at least a 40% chance (seemingly!) of getting up at that point.  A mortal announcer would not have had the machismo to make that call.  No way!

In the 12^th race on July 4, Hunters Seacret completely blowing the first turn, being hung absurdly wide throughout, and only getting beaten 23 ½ lengths?  It would be fun to see how well she can route if able to stay near, just near, the rail!

Sunday’s BetFair/TVG United Nations featured one of the most impressive closing kicks I have seen since I’ve worked at Monmouth Park.  Having a rooting interest in Straight Story, I actually thought I had a chance in mid-stretch of the U.N., but eventual winner Chinchon absolutely Midnight Luted (that’s the verb for power housed – see the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Sprint) past the field in a matter of strides.  That was one impressive performance from a horse that should have a serious say in the Breeders’ Cup Turf if his connections choose that path.

We’re less than three weeks out from July 24, which means the return of last year’s Haskell winner and reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra is right around the corner.  It’s really been an unbelievable year so far at Monmouth Park with how well the Elite Summer Meet has gone – and Rachel’s approaching appearance just makes it that much better.  I can’t wait to see a packed house and people with signs saluting the [East Coast] “Queen of Racing.”  It’s really something to witness when a horse has the ability and appeal to bring fans to the track.

Last weekend, maiden winner Justaroundmight was my selection in the Grade III Boiling Springs Stakes.  She was bottled up in traffic pretty much from her opening stride and was never able to shake free.  This Sunday, Dover Crescent – second to Justaroundmidnight in her maiden score – came back to break her maiden at second asking.  Look for Ms. Midnight to be a major player in the Filly and Mare Turf Division in the future.

Lastly, I just wanted to say a word about one of my favorite horses Trust or Bust.  As someone who has been following the races at Charles Town for a little over a year now, Trust or Bust had grown to be my favorite horse at the little West Virginia establishment.  He was a 4 1/2-furlong specialist - kind of the Charles Town version of Joey P.  He always gave his all, never backed down from a fight, and if he went down, he went down fighting.  He'll always be my first "Charles Town" horse and I'm really going to miss him!!

Brad Thomas’ Why I Like Horse Racing – Part II 

Horse racing is a game in which nothing, and nobody, is what it or they seem.

The variables are vast and subject to interpretation and the human players come from every social strata and walk of life.  Regardless, however, and with a nod to Independence Day, sheer fortune and the relentlessness of the parimutuel system render equal those not necessarily created so.

At least half of modern day horse training seems to be public relations.  Years ago, I knew a career assistant, now deceased, whose name never was printed in any program, but who was as good a hands-on horseman as you’ll ever find.  He just didn’t have the personality to be the frontman.  He told the truth.  All the time.  Frankly, hilariously, and wonderfully profanely.

One of his first jobs was with a famous trainer who got jealous and defensive when a foresighted owner began to see through the rough veneer and recognized the talent, intuition and skill of the young assistant.  The position was terminated.

The spurned aide seethed and stewed for a decade as his former boss raked in the money and accolades while his own career plodded in place.  But then something happened.  The superstar trainer began to lose a number of horses through the claim box who suddenly went on to do phenomenally well for their new, no-name connections.  It was the talk of the track.  What was up with so-and-so?  Had he lost it?

“No,” my friend said.  (Sanitized version for family blogging.)  “He’s the same half-..… hack and turf club toff he’s always been.  But I did pay him a visit for a week about a month ago.  I already had a good tan, so I grew a mustache, let my hair get long, and pretended I couldn’t speak English.  Ya’ know, no hablo Ingles? 

“He barely looked at me.  Didn’t matter anyway.  He wouldn’t remember me even if his next shady bloodstock deal depended on it.  He hired me as a hot walker.  One day, he owed me $39, gave me two twenties, and held out his hand for the dollar change.  What a spit!

“But I did get to know his horses. Rrrrrreal well.  The shyster charges the top day rate on the backstretch, but still goes cheap on feed and never looks at the feet.  I put together a little scouting report.  Complete with recommendations for how to move’em up.  Made it all nice and neat and printed it up on the copier he has in his own office.  Sold it to ten guys for $500 a piece and made five times that much betting.  Pero, yo escribo Ingles!”