This weekend, the BBQ & Craft Beer Festival returns to Monmouth Park on Saturday and Sunday.  Having worked the past few years worth of festivals, I am prepared to share – let’s be honest – some of the most valuable information one could ever pass along.

Four words: Ben’s BBQ & Catering – ok, that’s technically one word (possessive), an abbreviation, a punctuation mark, and another word.

A look through the menu for BBQ Fest 2012 offers a delicious assortment of juicy goodness.  But I have a feeling I’m just going to channel the 8-year-old Brian on the bumper-cars at Knoebels Amusement Park – wait on line, go on the ride, get back on the end of the line.  The 27-year-old Brian will just substitute “go on the ride” for “eat pulled pork”.

Yeah, this weekend could get ugly from a food consumption standpoint.

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Another fantastic tradition that is occurring this weekend and bringing back equally juicy memories is Saturday’s Grade 3 Cliff Hanger Stakes.

It’s a little ironic that this year’s favorite Get Serious needs super, super firm turf.  Ironic – at least to me – because the Cliff Hanger brings back memories of Hotstufanthensome splashing home a 14 ½-length winner on October 22, 2005 on one of the boggiest turf courses I have ever seen.

I’m very biased but it’s always nice to have something that reminds me of the old guy.  (Other than the picture I have taped to my computer monitor of me with Hotstuf at his new home in New York.)

That’ll be a story for another time.

My extended weekend began on Friday afternoon when I drove to Connecticut for my best friend’s wedding rehearsal and dinner.  The 2 ½-hour drive took nearly five because of that good ‘ol NYC traffic.  (That wasn’t the best).  But the rest of the night went well and a Saturday which combined Frisbee and beanbag games in the AM, a wedding ceremony in early PM, and wedding reception in late PM was tons of fun. 

From Connecticut it was on to Boston where I celebrated my birthday at my first-ever Boston Red Sox game at Fenway Park.  While the game was exciting (cool moment for Kevin Youkilis’ return) and the stadium was very nice (I enjoyed my first-ever ‘Sweet Caroline’), the pre-game meal absolutely stole the show.  If you’re ever in Boston, you need to check out Island Creek Oyster Bar.  I don’t do raw, but I sure do seafood and this place totally rocked.  To be honest, I didn’t expect anything less from a high-class seafood joint in Boston, but the clam chowder and lobster roll…let’s just say I’ve craved them ever since.

Following my two days in Beantown, it was time to return home – but not before a stop at Akindale Farm in New York to visit the one-and-only Hotstufanthensome.  For me, spending 45 minutes with Hotstuf was like hanging out with Lebron James or Derek Jeter.  As I was sure to tell him, Hotstufanthensome is probably the reason I’m working at a racetrack today.  (And I was sure to thank him for now having to work weekends and holidays!!)  For a horse that the farm has nicknamed “The Beast” – I was told Hotstuf does what he wants, when he wants, no questions asked – he sure seemed calm and relaxed around me.  I like to think he remembers me from the good ‘ol days and/or maybe could sense the gratitude I had towards him.  Either way, it was a pretty cool day and a nice conclusion to one of the better weekends I’ve had in a while.

Although the 111 emails I had waiting for me when I got back in the office weren’t the most fun I’ve ever had, my 4 ½ days away were definitely worth it. 

And now...Haskell approaches!!

Really, isn’t that pretty much the only question we have to address this week?

We’ve had that exact poll question up on www.monmouthpark.com for about a week now and it seems pretty even – 53% yes, 47% no.

A week ago, I was in the current majority.  But with only two days until the big event, I’ve switched over to Team No.

I DO NOT think I’ll Have Another will win the Belmont Stakes.

I also don’t, however, know who WILL win the Belmont.  But I think it comes down to Union Rags or Dullahan.  Anyone other than one of those three winning would be a colossal upset.

Originally, I had thought I’ll Have Another would do it solely based on my psychic abilities.  You see, I’ll be in Montreal this weekend and therefore (based on the laws of fate) I predicted long ago that a horse would be alive for the Triple Crown and that personal favorite Get Stormy would be run in the Monmouth Stakes on Sunday. 

As it turns out, both are scheduled to come true. 

In my prophecy, however, I never said that a horse WOULD win the Triple Crown.  That recollection had me second-guessing my earlier believes about I’ll Have Another.  Additionally, my original feelings were that Union Rags would be the horse on the verge of immortality.  As it stands now, that feeling (and the laws of fate) lead me to believe that Union Rags may win the Belmont.

In a strict handicapping sense, I would select Dullahan over Union Rags solely because, due to traffic issues, Union Rags hasn’t run a real, full race since February – and that was his first start of the year.  Will he be fit enough and battle-tested enough to go a mile and a half?

While I probably won’t be able to watch the races (at least the undercard) until I get back from Montreal, I hope I am alive into the fourth and final leg on the $1 million guaranteed Pick 4 with Union Rags, Dullahan and I’ll Have Another.  

And while I haven’t looked at the PPs for the Monmouth Stakes yet, just the fact that Get Stormy, Presious Passion and Get Serious are in the field will most likely have me leaving money with my brother to bet on Data Link.

I watched a lot of race replays, spent time analyzing expected pace scenarios, and plotted out a plan to play 4-5 separate tickets while being sure to maximize my returns should my top picks come in.

I put in a good amount of work and was pretty confident in what I had come up with:

• Because there was no pace in the race, I didn’t like the eventual 4-5 favorite at all in leg 1 because she was a deep closer. 
• In Leg 2, I couldn’t get past the two logical contenders and simply used them on all tickets.
• In Leg 3, I didn’t see how the runners on the rail and far outside could avoid a speed duel with each other.
• In Leg 4, I thought it came down to any one of three with a preference towards Caleb’s Posse.

About 45 minutes before the Pick 4 sequence started, I thought of something that I hadn’t spent any time on – but something that could play a major impact.  How was the track playing?  I put in a call to someone whose opinion I trust very much, but he unfortunately had not been watching Belmont on Monday.  

So I went ahead with my Pick 4 plays as if the track was playing fair to everyone.  Boy, was that a mistake. 

The horse who won the first leg at 8-1 was on every single one of my tickets.  I was on my way.  It’s Tricky – who was also on all tickets – thankfully got up to win Leg 2.  However, despite the win, I knew I was in trouble moving forward.  Speed looked really dangerous (pacesetter almost hung on while odds-on favorite spun her wheels off the pace).

Looking ahead at the final two legs of the sequence, while I had both of the speed horses covered on one ticket in Leg 3, I didn’t use Shackleford at all.  With the track playing how it was, I wasn’t very excited about my chances.  

About 100 yards out of the gate in the Acorn, I knew I was doomed.  Baffert’s filly was all alone in front – where in the world was the speedy filly on the outside to press her!!! – and the two horses I used on all tickets were stuck off the pace.  The race was over before the first quarter mile was even run.

After watching the Acorn, not having the speedy Shackleford on my ticket was not very comforting.  And despite a gallant try by Caleb’s Posse, the gorgeous Preakness winner just wouldn’t be denied. 

I predicted the winner of all four races before they ran, but I cashed no tickets.  Unfortunately, when you play the Pick 4 you have to make all your selections before the first leg.  (What kind of a rule is that!?!?)

While I spent a couple hours handicapping the races on paper, I never took the time to take in some action from Belmont to see the conditions.  If you would have told me before sequence that the track was super speed favoring I would have constructed my tickets much differently.

And I would have been cashing at the end of the day instead of throwing my tickets in the garbage.

Lesson learned.

I’m only 26 years old.  I missed out on a lot of the historically significant horse races and race calls that happened before my time.  But I have to believe that the call of the 2012 Preakness by the voice of the Triple Crown, Monmouth Park track announcer, and my friend Larry Collmus will go down in history as one of the best race calls of all time.  

Informative as always, but what passion in the stretch.  If you don’t get goosebumps listening to that, don’t even bother watching the Belmont.  First the energy picked up around the far turn, then the voice started to go nearing the wire…finish it off with a dramatic “And the Triple Crown will be on the line at Belmont Park.”  It was the most dramatic I’ve ever heard.

Before the Preakness, the race call I always went to when I was in that “goosebumps kind of mood” was Dan Hicks calling the 4x100 Freestyle Relay in the 2008 Olympics – when the U.S. men came from behind in the last…um, stride…to win.  The last 30 seconds of that call was the most dramatic call I’ve ever heard.

Maybe I’m biased, but this call was better.  It’s a stretch call that will go down in history.

As for early impressions of the Belmont, I’ve been on Union Rags for a LONG time.  I LOVE the jockey switch to John Velazquez.  But I just have a feeling that I’ll Have Another is going to do it.  Maybe it has something to due with the fact that I’ll be out of the country on Saturday, June 9.

How about some early impressions from my initial looks through the PPs?  By no means do I guarantee I won’t change my mind, but here’s where my head’s at now.  (If I’m being really honest, I’m not quite sure the location of my head right now, so maybe take the following with a grain of salt!)

…There certainly is some speed on paper on the Skipat on Friday (Race 6).  These ladies are sure to be smoking early.  Maybe Bold Affair can sit the trip right in behind.

…I’m usually not a big fan of jumping on the bandwagon of horses that other people are talking about, but I admit I did just that for Millionreasonswhy (Miss Preakness – Friday, Race 8) in her last race at Aqueduct.  This girl can run.  I definitely liked what I saw when I went back and watched her previous races.  Not sure if there’s anyone to soften up Agave Kiss though.  Say a Novena can get a piece at a big price.

…Definitely giving Ben’s Cat a mulligan in the Turf Sprint (Friday, Race 10).  He was one of the best at this game last year and had traffic in his last.  If he runs here, Fiddlers Patriot has shown he can run well off a layoff.

…Wouldn’t be surprised for a second is big favorite Mamma Kimbo goes wire-to-wire in the Black Eyed Susan (Friday, Race 10), but may try to upset with Welcome Guest.  That was a good second last time going from a maiden race to a G3 behind the eventual KY Oaks runner-up.

…In the Pimlico Special (Friday, Race 12), is it me or does Alternation look like a monster at Oaklawn and just okay everywhere else?  Mission Impazible isn’t a win machine.  Hymn Book has never won on fast dirt.  Maybe this is the race to try a longshot.  Endorsement’s Beyers are going in the right direction.  Maybe even Yawanna Twist, who very rarely runs a bad one and had some weird traffic arrangements before his most recent start at Oaklawn.

…I said it on KY Oaks day when she was scratched, but in the Hilltop (Friday, Race 13), Anna Sophia is the hunch bet of all time.  I’m still just leaving it at that.

With hopefully some money left in our pockets, let’s look ahead to Saturday’s card.

…No real standouts in the Maryland Sprint (Race 8), but I don’t like the morning-line favorite Hamazing Destiny.  I know Immortal Eyes very well and if he’s the same horse this year as he was last year he’ll give a good account of himself.  The rail’s not the best draw for him, but there’s not a ton of pace in here for a graded six-furlong race.  Wildcat Brief didn’t have a chance to run more than a couple furlongs last week and it’s interesting to see him show up here…with Ramon Dominguez.

…Have no brain-shattering insight into the James W. Murphy (Race 9), but it is the start of a $1,000,000 guaranteed Pick 4.  I like that!

…No real standouts in the Allaire Dupont Distaff (Race 10), but I don’t like morning-line favorite Absinthe Minded.  (Wait a minute, that sounds familiar).  Maybe the Baffert-trained Awesomemundo from just off of it.

…The Dixie (Race 11) is always one of my favorite races of the year to bet.  Hudson Steele has my respect if he runs here but I also have eyes on Straight Story and Trend.  (That isn’t implying I have three eyes is it?)  I miss not seeing Einstein’s name among the Dixie entrants.

…In the Preakness (Race 12), can Bodemeister run the same race he did two weeks ago?  If he can, then he’ll win and that makes everything a lot easier.  If not, then we may have a mess on our hands.  Maybe it’s just me, but I think I would be pretty close to stunned if a horse that did not run in the KY Derby wins the Preakness.

I guess that’ll do it.  Best of luck. 

Event-wise, the May 27 Food Trucks Wars is new.  Close to 30 trucks serving out various types of good food – that sounds good to me.  And of course we have the Crab Cake and BBQ festivals coming back. 

On the track, the Opening Day feature is a good one.  A nine-horse field going six furlongs – and all nine horses are stakes winners.  Can Zero Rate Policy bounce back?  He was ready to blow the roof off the place after his first two races of the winter.  His last two…not so much.  Can Congressional Page bounce back to his 2010 form?  He’s a perfect 3-for-3 at Monmouth Park.  Can Wildcat Brief run them all down in his first start of the year?  What happened to Soaring Stocks last time?  The questions go on and on.  It’s a nice race.

Lastly, you’ll likely notice the length of the blogs will be way down this year.  That’s just a result of circumstance as a lot has changed since we signed off last year.  The two-day-a-week blog is no more.  I’m going to try to post something every Thursday, but I’m also not going to make any promises.  It’s going to be a very busy summer, but I’ll try my best to keep the blog as lively as possible.

Let’s talk Preakness next week.

The Monmouth Park Blog is back, baby!  And what perfect timing – just in time for the Kentucky Derby and Oaks. 

There’s 25 races at Churchill Downs over the next two days – 12 stakes – and both cards begin at 10:30 am.  I know I used the same line last year, but is there anything better than an amazing racing card that begins at 10:30 am?!  That’s 7:30 am for all you MP Blog readers on the west coast.  “Um, yes, I’ll take a large coffee, a scone and a $5 double!!”

Anyway, I’m going to keep it relatively short as my opinions, while strong, are not overly-abundant:

We’ll get right to it and start with Saturday’s Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs, Race 11).  I start and end with #4 Union Rags.  (I actually contemplated just doing a two-word blog, but thought better of it at the last second.)  The bottom line is I think Union Rags is the best horse in the race.  I liked him a lot going into last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  I liked him even more coming out of that race.  I really liked him going into this year’s Florida Derby.  And while that didn’t go according to plan, I am absolutely all-in in the Kentucky Derby.  I might not even look for horses to use underneath, but Gemologist and Daddy Nose Best would be my next two in either order.

On another note, handicapping and gambling aside, I am rooting for Union Rags.  I am rooting that Julien Leparoux is able to redeem himself and quiet his critics after a tough trip in the Florida Derby.  And I am rooting for trainer Michael Matz and wheelchair-bound owner Phyllis Wyeth.

In Friday’s Oaks, I like morning line favorite #2 Grace Hall.  Like with Union Rags, I just think she is the best horse in the field.  Being able to physically see both Grace Hall and Union while down at Gulfstream this winter, they’re just physically bigger than at least their Florida competition.  I think an Oaks/Derby daily double might be in order – using the same two horses I used in the Gulfstream Oaks/Florida Derby double five weeks ago.

A few Oaks/Derby Day quickies:

In the Edgewood Stakes (Race 8) on Friday’s card, #11 Anna Sophia is the hunch bet of all time.  I’ll leave it at that.  (She actually ran a good race two back at Gulfstream with some traffic issues.)

In Saturday’s Grade 2 Churchill Downs Handicap (Race 7), I have the utmost respect for morning line favorite #4 Shackleford.  He dances every dance, never backs down from a fight, and always gives his absolute all.  The only problem – almost never wins.  #6 Amazombie has won before at 7 ½ furlongs.  I don’t see why seven should be a problem here.

In the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile (Race 8), I’m interested to see if people are going to give up on #7 Aruna – after all, she was last in her 2012 debut.  If so, I’m in.  #10 Hungry Island is also interesting upon first glance.

In the Grade 1 Humana Distaff, (Race 9), why is Joel Rosario not riding #7 Switch?  Hmm.

What a great race the Grade 1 Turf Classic (Race 10) seems to be on paper.  I’ve been a big fan of #4 Get Stormy for years now, but there’s a lot of speed in there.  I’ll be looking for a horse from off the pace.  #7 Data Link is a horse I’ve been following for the last two years.  If he’s not already, he’ll be a top turf horse very soon.  #10 Brilliant Speed, #6 Doubles Partner and #2 Turallure also seem to fit the race flow.

…U-N-I-O-N R-A-G-S…that’s all I’m saying.

Best of luck on Derby Day!! 

We sure went out with a bang yesterday at the Breeders’ Cup.  Turns out there was a reason I couldn’t separate Amazombie and Force Freeze on paper.  There wasn’t much between them on the track.

It’s on to Gulfstream Park for me this week.  Looking forward to getting down to that warmer weather – not after one last fishing trip on Monday though. 

Thanks to all of you to check out the blog every week.  We truly do appreciate your support.  Have a great winter and let’s plan on meeting back here in the spring.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings  

Breeders’ Cup

The best ride of the weekend was delivered by rapidly-improving, Calder-based jockey Juan Leyva in the Filly and Mare Sprint.  The filly broke left and bumped a rival, but quickly was straightened by her rider.  They pressed a slow pace early, but Leyva eased his mount back on the turn when the tempo quickened and others (especially favored Turbulent Descent and jockey David Flores) unleashed premature bids.  Leyva and Musical Romance came out in the stretch to begin their rally, but congestion blocked their path.  Undeterred, Leyva quickly, decisively, and adroitly altered his course to a clear inside rail and charged to a 20-1 victory.  It was a stellar performance by a rising star.  (Incidentally, I wonder how much more stretch kick and grit faltering, 5^th-finishing Turbulent Descent would have had if she actually competed in a real race at least once in the last about three months rather than coming into this championship contest on a new-age regimen of morning workouts alone?)

It was fantastic to see a natural marathon horse like 41-1 Marathon upsetter Afleet Again run to his potential.  The long-striding grey is by Afleet Alex, a Belmont Stakes winner who is proving to be a welcome source of true stamina for the overly-speedy modern gene pool.  Afleet Alex’s sire, Northern Afleet, is by top sprinter/miler Afleet, himself a son of profound speed and precocious influence Mr. Prospector – it’s interesting how things can change through the generations!  (My friend and long-time colleague Thomas Cassidy, in his first Breeders’ Cup at TVG, picked Afleet Again on air!)

Wrote’s dominance and powerful stride in the Juvenile Turf indicate that he actually could prove a European-based winner of that race capable of being a major 3-year-old factor on that continent next season.

The performance of the day was turned in by 3-year-old Shackleford who dueled top sprinter The Factor into defeat through fast fractions and only yielded late to perfect-trip closer Caleb’s Posse, another sophomore, in the Dirt Mile.  Shackleford, on his year-long, dance-every-dance and ultra-consistent, top-notch performances is my clear choice for champion 3-year-old.

Brilliant Speed, who should have won the 2011 Belmont Stakes, proved his distance prowess with an outstanding third-place finish – behind two top-notch Euros – in the Turf.

Favored Union Rags was exposed as just another nice juvenile in the Juvenile.  A true Triple Crown horse would have gone by front-running Hansen, who himself, based on pedigree and style, might have a short shelf-life at the top of the division.  Next year’s marquee races are wide, wide open.

Goldikova wasn’t good enough in the Mile despite a perfect trip, but was more gallant in defeat than she ever had to be in victory.  Kudos to her connections, who are just as classy as their mare, for racing her though her sixth year, and taking on every challenge while magnanimously sharing her repeatedly with North Americans.

The most positive thing about the whole weekend for me was the comeback of the Belmont Stakes as a major classic race.  The Classic was won by 2010 Belmont winner Drosselmeyer and 2011 Belmont victor Ruler On Ice was a strong third.  The Classic field this year was weaker than usual while the group as a whole – as usual – was distance-challenged even by 10 furlongs.  The 12-panel specialists simply outstayed their competition.  Hopefully breeders – and the people who buy from the breeders – will gain some much needed insight and wisdom from this event and use it to properly value stamina in producing and purchasing Thoroughbreds.

Horse of the Year?  I haven’t a clue.  There’s still more racing in 2011 to watch and observe.  But my blogging for the year is done.  Thanks for reading!  Good luck and see you next year!

I’m not 100% set with my selections for Saturday yet, but let’s through all 15 races for some quick thoughts:

The championship action begins Friday with the inaugural Juvenile Sprint.  Expected heavy favorite Secret Circle sure looks tough.  In trying to fill the underneath spots, I’m not thrilled with anything I’ve seen from the three horses coming out of Belmont’s Grade 2 Nashua.

In the Juvenile Fillies Turf, my play is very much AGAINST likely huge favorite Elusive Kate.  I might actually play this race just to try to beat her.  The replay of her last win in France was not inspiring at all and she reportedly has not looked good in training this week at Churchill.  Another play against for the win spot is second-choice on the morning line Somali Lemonade who will be coming from the clouds and might have some traffic issues in a field of 14.  I like Dayatthespa (worked in company with Filly & Mare Turf ML favorite Stacelita), My Gi Gi at a huge price, and Stopshoppingmaria.  It doesn’t look like there’s much pace in this race.

In the Filly & Mare Sprint, Switch is my best bet of the day.  The distance is right, the surface is right, she got a good prep last out, and she was second in this race last year.

In the Juvenile Fillies, I’m just going on a gut feeling with Northern Passion.  She’s never run on dirt, but I liked what I saw when watching the replays of her three career starts.  There actually DOES appear to be a lot of speed in this race and I want someone coming from out of it.  If Candrea can settle a little more off the pace here, I think she’ll be dangerous.

It’s just a matter of which of the Euros in the Filly & Mare Turf.  I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Stacelita, Nahrain, Announce and Misty For Me swept the superfecta, but I put Announce on top.  The thought process here was if Juddmonte Farms is running Midday in the BC Turf, they must have a good one for the F&M Turf.  Hopefully Announce is that filly.

To cap of the day in the Ladies Classic, I very much like Royal Delta.  There are two confirmed front-runners in here with Ask the Moon and Plum Pretty and that should set things up well for the Bill Mott trainee.  According to DRF’s Mike Welsch, there is no horse training better at Churchill Downs than Royal Delta.

In Saturday’s Marathon, I think defending champ Eldaafer has a solid shot at back-to-back, but will likely end up on the favorite A.U. Miner.  He’ll have to thread his way through traffic though.

In the Juvenile Turf, I really liked the effort from Animal Spirits (almost typed Kingdom) last time at Keeneland.  I think people are making too much of an excuse for the others in there because of the mid-stretch spill.  He put in a powerful stretch run either way.  Finale and State of Play are others I have my eyes on.

Perhaps my best opinion comes in the Sprint.  I really like Amazombie and Force Freeze.  The former is tough as nails and will at no point be afraid to bull his way through a tight spot.  The latter should get a really, really nice stalking trip.  I’m against Big Drama and I don’t like Jackson Bend at six furlongs.  I do think there’s a chance Euroears just guns and takes them all the way, and I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see Apriority finish ahead of his stablemate.

The Turf Sprint is just impossible.  Regally Ready seems logical on every level.  Two wins over the track and at the distance and a running style that will keep him close and hopefully out of traffic.  If it’s not him, however, it can be any of them.  I don’t like ML second-choice Caracortado AT ALL.

In preliminary handicapping, I find it odd that of the nine entrants in the Dirt Mile, only two of them have…um, actually won at a mile.  Five of the horses haven’t even run a race at a mile.  With that said, I think I’m going to take a shot with last year’s Cigar Mile winner Jersey Town.  There could be a decent amount of speed on paper, but I could also envision the scenario where The Factor goes wire to wire.

Back to the Euros for the Turf.  I haven’t watched the replays of all those big European races yet, but it has to come down to the five Euros for the exacta and maybe even the trifecta and super.  Dean’s Kitten is our best shot?  Come on now.

I wonder who will be out on the lead in the Juvenile?  I’m gonna go with Hansen.  At the wire, I’m going with Union Rags.  He’ll likely be my best bet for the Saturday card.

As far as I’m concerned it’s going to be four in a row for Goldikova in the Mile.  I don’t see anyone that can beat her.  Case closed.  I’ll use Gio Ponti, Courageous Cat and Get Stormy underneath.

I have no idea who will win the Classic.  I’m just trying to figure out how fancy I want to get and how much I really want to “gamble”.  No guts, no glory after all.  Depending on how the race turns out, this could one of the dumbest things I’ve ever said, but I actually am leaning towards picking the European So You Think, who at this time last year was running in the Melbourne Cup – yeah, that’s Australia.  I’m just not blown away by any of the Americans.

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The absolute best of luck this weekend with the Breeders’ Cup.  Hopefully some of the things we’ve discussed throughout the year will lead to huge BC scores.  Brad and I will be back on Sunday for the final Monmouth Park Blog of 2011.

Good luck everyone!

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Friday, October 28

Race 1 – Great job by both winning jockey Felix Ortiz on Hero’s Destiny and the Monmouth Park stewards.  Ortiz and the gelding were cruising along on the lead in mid-stretch when his mount, a known drifter, suddenly attempted to bolt to the outside fence.  The rider, who already had been applying a right-handed whip, quickly and coolly grabbed hold of his mount, straightened him, and hand rode his way to victory.  During the incident, Hero’s Destiny had crossed over in front of Peanutbutterbrown.  The stewards looked at what happened, as they should have, and correctly ruled that the outcome of the race, or anybody’s finish, was in no way affected.  There’s great pressure on stewards these days to take action just for the sake of doing something.  The true professionals resist it and alter the results on the playing field sparingly and only when evidence is overwhelming. 

Race 4 – Want some insight about what jockeys really are thinking?  Watch the replay of this race and check out late on the backstretch when Angel Serpa on Merlot Dreams looks back twice over his left shoulder to see exactly where Elvis Trujillo on 5/2 second choice Curious Luck is located.  I’m willing to bet that Serpa thought he could take 3/2 favorite Soulful and Shamir Maragh anytime he desired.  If that indeed was the case, Serpa was right.  He went to the front into the lane, but, as it turned out, Curious Luck waa a prime cause for concern.  That filly drew away in deep stretch and a relatively hard-used Merlot Dreams lost the place late to Shot Gun Donna.

Saturday, October 29

Race 1 – Low profile jockey Marland Suckie doesn’t get many opportunities, but always performs professionally when given a chance.  He did everything right here with 7-1 Summer In City patiently pressing odds-on Over the Bridge, waiting as long as possible before attacking and passing that rival, keeping his wandering mount as straight as possible in deep stretch, and even getting her finally to switch leads in the last sixteenth.  Still, it all was for naught as Mrs. Don made the final run and nailed Summer in the City in the last strides.

Race 4 – Odds-on Successful Score might be fast enough to battle for the lead sprinting, but his pedigree made him vulnerable here stretching out to two turns.  Credit jockey Elvis Trujillo for utilizing the gelding’s turn of foot in a creative way.  The rider allowed his mount to drop back early and keep dropping back on the backstretch.  The two then sprinted the last half-mile to run down the embattled leaders on a sloppy, sealed surface distinctly tilted towards an outside, closing flow.  There’s more than one way to ride a speedy horse and Trujillo knows them all.

Race 8 – No, this wasn’t the equine version of Gulliver’s Travels.  It really was the Jersey Juvenile Stakes.  But easy, romping winner Deliburnsky did look like a Clydesdale running against Shetland ponies.  The strapping, New Jersey-bred gelding is more than good enough – much less big enough – to hold his own against quality open competition.

Sunday, October 30

Race 2 – Zosogood, staying with his revamped, slightly off-the-pace style, scored here for the second time in a week.  Winning trainer Tony Wilson clearly is one to watch as the season winds down – he now has four victories and two second-place finishes in the last two weeks.  Other especially live conditioners are: Ben Perkins, Jr. (two wins and a runner-up finish this week), Scott Volk (two triumphs and two place finishes in the last two weeks), and Gregg Sacco (four scores and two seconds this week).

Race 4 – Two quality, first-time-starting juvenile fillies finished one-two in this late season maiden special weight contest.  Victor Personally Yours has easy, high-octane speed and the ability to sustain it in stakes company for at least six furlongs.  Runner-up Nuffsaid Nuffsaid ate a lot of dirt early racing behind horses, didn’t like it, dropped back, angled out, took dirt again, altered course back inside to avoid it, finished well on the duller part of the strip once she had no one directly to her front and no longer faced kickback, and then pulled up strongly past the wire.  A long one turn or a short two turns both could be her friends. 

Not much from me today, I actually forgot to post the blog at work.  Just a little busy planning the Breeders' Cup Party.  Thanks to those of you attending the party who also read the blog - we are now SOLD OUT!!  Very cool.  We'll see everyone Saturday.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings  

Saturday, October 22

Race 5 - Thisonesforruthie, a gelding with relatively recent live speed figures and overall form at fitting class levels, scored here at an incredible 8-1 in a 5-horse field.  Jockey Pedro Cotto had a plan right out of the gate and rated his usually early-attacking charge behind an expected pace duel.  While Thisonesforruthie stepped up considerably in claiming price here, Smooth Sailing, his early rival when the former scored previously in a non-winners-of-three- lifetime $7,5000 claimer, can drop a notch to the basement off his needed last (October 10, Race 4) and be  factor at a big price. 

Race 6 - Blameshifter had two sprint races of foundation and that got him to the winner’s circle, but hard-used runner-up firster White Hill has the pedigree and upside to move forwardly into stakes company by the late winter of 2012. 

            Game 4^th finisher Tenth Waver (35-1) battled under intense backstretch pressure and stayed on late like a colt sufficiently battle-hardened to outlast high-priced maiden claimers or even less toney maiden specials.

Race 7 - Real good job by winning jockey Felix Ortiz on board the ultra-tactical Secret Getaway.  The two got into the early game and perched themselves in a perfect pace pressing passion.  Then they relaxed.  And played chicken with Awesome Encore and Livin Large, to fellow pressers to their inside.  Awesome Encore cracked first and then Liven Large- both moved aggressively but prematurely to attack stamina- challenged front-runner Big D.  Ortiz and Secret Getaway then made the last move and, though it wasn’t pretty, wore down Awesome Encore in deep stretch.  The victorious six-year- old was dropping down third race off the trainer Juan Serey claim- while still competing for twice his $5,000 purchase price.

Race 8 - There used to be a time when inside post positions put a damper on Back Pocket Money’s early foot. But in 2011, he’s won from the rail twice, the two 2-post once, and here he scored from the 3-hole.  And there used to be an era when the gelding was a one-dimensional front-runner. But in this contest he rated perfectly just off second-choice Unwritten before going by in upper stretch.  And, there also used to be a period when Back Pocket Money was a basement claimer, but in the last two weeks he’s triumphed against, basically, first and second level New Jersey-bred allowance company.  What’s his secret? Fully maturing both mentally and physically as a five-year-old, new 2011- trainer Juan Serey AND weak, late-season competition!

Race 9 - Good-finishing 7-1 victor Introvert has proven an astute $25,000 claim (on August 5) for J. Willard Thompson.  The mare can go long or short, on turf or dirt, and when it’s wet or dry. 

            Third-finishing Shipwreck Cove had to rush up on a dull rail following a troubled start and earned an excellent pace figure before faltering in deep stretch.  She can get six panels with a better set up. 

Race 10 - Conditioner Gregory Sacco slipped one by here when he dropped second-time starting returnee Tuff Tri into a state-bred, $50,000 maiden claimer.  The juvenile filly, showing strong physical development since her mid-July debut, dominated in a way suggesting she more than matches up with most of her restricted division contemporaries unveiled so far.

Sunday, October 23

Race 1 – Maiden breaker (by about six inches) Goose Bay wouldn’t change to his proper right lead during a long stretch drive while runner-up Don’s Peach (absurdly overbet at ½ while taking on males) lugged in to a rail that played dully on Saturday.  The mistakes of the two leaders likely neutralized each other.  The victor was stepping up last out superficially in class (after finishing a length in front last out of improving After the Fire, who’ll be tough himself next time) and being ridden for the first time by jockey Angel Serpa.

Race 2 – Sadler Power (favored at 4/5) has been best lately coming from off-the-pace, has stamina limitations beyond one mile (this race was an additional 70 yards), and was competing on a surface that has not been kind recently to speed at two-turn distances.  The gelding broke well, but rather than take back a bit was nudged to the lead and was empty by late on the second turn.  Meanwhile, Zosogood, who had been hard-used in his last three, fell into a perfect, with-the-flow trip from just off the pace and bounced back (his speed figures reflect a consistent, in-and-out pattern) into the winner’s circle.

Race 3 – With blinkers off, a change of tactics to a come-from-behind style, and a switch to jockey Felix Ortiz, Monkey Chunky was able to make the last run on a track appearing to play relatively strongly to outside closers.  Ortiz is riding better than I’ve ever seen him – especially from off the pace.

            Runner-up Sinatra’srazedbrow was stepping up from state-bred $16,000 maiden claimers to this NJ-bred $100,000 maiden claimer (realistically speaking a maiden special weight).  Race 1state-bred $20,000 maiden claiming victor Goose Bay was moving up from a basement, NJ-bred $7,500 maiden claimer.  Sense a pattern here? Late in the year, class distinctions between state-bred maiden classifications utterly have disintegrated.  Look for the lightly-raced horses with room to improve to continue to have the edge over more heavily-raced rivals– regardless of any super-superficial hikes in virtually non-existent class. 

Race 4 - In recent years, trainer Manuel Berrios primarily has conditioned homebreds, but Weak Dollar Policy here was his second victory in the last two days with a horse 2^nd-race-off-a-claim.  Berrios also has placed this meeting first and third-time off a purchase.

Race 5 - Winning trainer Kathleen DeMasi has seven victories this meeting and now five of them have come with horses racing off respites of between 35 and 50 days.  Strawberry Blush here was the second straight sprint score on the card for an immediate pace presser, but both she and Weak Dollar Policy in Race 4 were well of the rail every step of the way.

Race 7 - Only three of the seven entrants in this non-winners-of-one-allowance never had run for a claiming tag.  Seaside Magic was a homebred, Peggy Joyce cost $27,000 as a yearling, and Quick Flip brought $225,000 at a juvenile in training sale in February.  Who do you think proved to be the greatest combination of precocity and upside?  Hot-riding Pedro Cotto handled Quick Flip perfectly.  He was forced to make the lead when the three fillies inside him broke poorly, but quickly navigated his charge to the best footing well of the rail. 

            Erstwhile speed-horse Seaside Magic caused her own woes by bearing out leaving the gate and slamming rivals.  She dropped back to last and appeared hopelessly beaten turning for home, but finished genuinely explosively.  If she can abide her newly-discovered rating style when breaking well, Seaside Magic’s strong distance pedigree on both sides could make her lethal around two turns.

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Only a few seats remain for our first-ever Breeders’ Cup Party & Handicapping Seminar.  I would say if you have any interest in coming, you better get your reservations in by the end of the week or we’re going to be sold out.

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A big Breeders’ Cup workout comes to us from Churchill Downs this weekend.  The Graham Motion-trained Aruna will work over the main track to see how she handles it.  Seemingly a turf/synthetic horse, Aruna will try to follow in the footsteps of a little horse named Animal Kingdom who pulled off the same feat earlier this year beneath the Twin Spires.

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For those of you looking for in-depth handicapping info related to the Breeders’ Cup, be sure to check out Mike Welsch’s daily videos on www.drf.com.  He’s the best in the business in deciphering who looks good and who doesn’t.  He raved about Animal Kingdom’s pre-Derby work earlier this year and I can’t wait to hear what he thinks of Aruna.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

As the 2011 Breeders’ Cup approaches, there’s still plenty of discussion and debate about the situation involving Life At Ten when that mare performed so abysmally in the 2010 BC distaff feature.  And that’s good for the health of the industry.  But one thing has disturbed me all along and that’s the insinuations from insiders that the real problem was the public knowing things it customarily would not be privy to rather than the fact that a heavily-bet horse had issues that nobody had the courage to address.  Decades ago, another generation of those insiders was against publicizing which horses were using lasix.  The ridiculous mantra was that horseplayers were not intelligent and/or informed enough to understand how to use the information.  Or that those who did comprehend would have an unfair advantage over those who didn’t.  I’ve heard similar rumblings about pre-race candor concerning horse’s physical condition in this current dialogue.  Well, I got news for some folks.  The people who use one type of past performances might have an edge over those who use another kind.  And those who listen to themselves might have an advantage on those who listen to a public handicapper.  That’s the game!  It’s all about finding the edges!  Put all the information out there and let the players figure it out.  Some will (Great!) and some won’t (It’s a tough game!).  That’s the nature of betting on horse racing and it’s what makes it the greatest gambling game around.  And as for the intelligence of horseplayers – I’ve got some even bigger news: the best brains in this game aren’t in the management, official, or employee suites.  They’re in the Clubhouse and Grandstand, or in their homes watching on a TV or computer screen. 

I’ve always said that horse racing was about making money.  Whether you’re a track, a bettor, a trainer, an owner, a breeder, or anything else in the industry.  And there’s no shame in believing that and acting on it.  But still, if I owned the magnificent filly Blind Luck, there’s absolutely no way I would put her up for sale.  Especially right after she’d run the first and only bad race of her life following an intense, years-long schedule that made me plenty of cash.  Sure, I’d sell her foals – some of them – but not her.  Call me sentimental – or maybe just loyal.

There’s at least one good thing about the national horse shortage and it’s that the pressure to fill races has emboldened some owners and trainers into running their athletes more often.  And you know what?  The humans are discovering that the animals actually can do it!  Now, maybe it’s about tracks sufficiently “incentivizing” more active campaigns in less lean times for horses competing at all levels.

Friday, October 21

Race 2 – Grand Reality ran a career best speed figure on dirt last out when he speed-popped the field on a loose lead.  However, there were a lot of other horses with early foot in this contest and the gelding drew a post position outside all of them.  Potential problem?  Not in reality.  The Elizabeth Gray-trainee is versatile enough to adapt to today’s difficult work environment for Thoroughbreds.  Jockey Victor Santiago astutely took back Grand Reality to last right out of the gate, attacked on the second turn, split horses adroitly twice, and drew away late like a horse who might be able to stand yet another step up in class.

Race 3 – Favored (7/5) El Hombre Grande was cutting back from seven furlongs to 5 ½ panels and the new distance seemed to be a good fit for a 2-year-old who had finished decently twice when competing at five furlongs.  Conversely, co-second choice (5/2) Mambo Bay was stretching out from five to 5 ½ panels for the first time in his life after having lost ground late in each of his previous four starts.  Yet, counter to what might be the knee-jerk intuition of some, Mambo Bay proved to be a decisive winner.  Why?

            Well, one of the beauties of this game is that something seldom is exactly as it seems.  Yes, Mambo Bay was faltering going shorter, but in each of his last three races he was under intense pace pressure dueling through the extra-fast splits (relatively speaking for a colt at his level) commonly associated with contests of abbreviated distances.  Sometimes, an extra half-furlong makes all the difference in the world, but not in the way it might seem at first glance.  At 5 ½ furlongs, under softer-paced conditions going slightly longer, Mambo Bay was able to clear easily, relax on the lead, and stroll home.  On the cut-back though, under faster-paced conditions than he had encountered at seven-eighths, El Hombre Grande found himself unable to keep up even with the second tier horses on the turn and did decently to rally, eventually, for the place.

Race 4 – Sometimes it pays - $10,800 in purse money and at 4-1 odds – to be patient.  Trainer Dianne Jeannont entered Forensic Edge in a conditioned, $5,000 claimer on October 15 in which the whole world, evidently, wanted to run.  Twelve horses drew into the body and Forensic Edge, who got the extreme outside post, was scratched by her conditioner.  Was it a mistake?  Would it take weeks for another race to go that would fit a mare sitting on ready?  Not this late in the racing season.  A mere six days later, Jeannont entered Forensic Edge here for about the same condition, but at a superficially higher ($7,500) claiming price.  The fact of the matter, though, was that this smaller (seven-horse) field was significantly weaker than the fuller contest at a lower claiming price that was avoided last Saturday.  Jockey Victor Santiago contributed his second, superb closing ride of the day by saving ground virtually every step of the way.

Race 5 – When favored (9/5) Todd Got Even stepped out for the post parade with front bandages on, there no doubt were many sharp players both on and off-track who made note of the equipment change.  Then the really sharp ones completely disregarded it.  That’s because bandage moves by super-shrewd trainers like Scott Volk are so indecipherable as to be meaningless.  Which reminds me:

A friend of mine once owned a cheap horse who always wore front bandages.  One day he came out late to the track when his gelding was running and saw him warming up by the gate wearing no bandages at all.  Elated, my friend went running up to his trainer in the box seats.

            “Bill! He looks tremendous! He doesn’t need the bandages anymore!  I’m going to bet!  He’s going to win for fun!”

            “Bobby!  Bobby! No!  Stop!  Come back!  Don’t bet!  The barn dog ate the bandages!”

Saturday, October 22

Race 1 – Jockey Francisco Maysonett’s greatest strength is his never-stop-trying, vigorously-urging style.  His mount here, first-time starter Bernardine’s Gift, broke slowly going an abbreviated sprint distance of 5 ½ furlongs.  Maysonett energetically hustled her to a couple lengths off loose leader Torchwood, who appeared to be running well within herself on the turn.  The leader stopped on a dime, however, and Maysonett, still whipping and driving, found himself drawing away into the stretch.  Meanwhile, jockey Chris DeCarlo was sitting chilly.  His ride, firster No Mandate, broke decently despite the rail post and fell into a comfortable third-position early without having been used.  DeCarlo and No Mandate settled into a steady, controlled rhythm, angled out into the stretch, and blew by Maysonett and an expended Bernardine’s Gift (who faded to third) in deep stretch.  Styles make boxing matches and horse races and in this instance DeCarlo had the right one.

Obviously – as I predicted to myself under my breath – two pitches later, Rafael Furcal got a hit.  Was there ever any doubt?  It’s all about the superstitions!

The situation made me remember when I was out to eat in Florida this past spring and the bottom line of ESPN scrolled with a breaking news update that so-and-so pitcher from the Florida Marlins had a no-hitter going into the bottom of the ninth.  We asked the bartender to put the game on TV, and literally the first pitch we saw was lined into the outfield for a base hit.  No-no go bye-bye.

While those are two pretty good tales, they pale in comparison to the story of the first game I pitched for the varsity team in high school:

Waaaaay back in high school, I was honored to be the only sophomore to make the varsity baseball team.  I battled with some tendonitis and arm soreness early in the year, and therefore didn’t make my varsity debut on the mound into a late-season game at Marlboro.  It was freezing cold – not good for my often-sore shoulder.

Now back in those days, the Middletown South Varsity Baseball team was pretty loaded.  With some help from my offense – and a pretty darn good two-seam fastball from yours truly – I took a 10-0 lead into the bottom of the fifth inning.  Due to high school mercy rules, three more outs and the game was over.

Oh yeah, I was yet to give up a hit.

For the first four innings, I was the typical superstitious pitcher.  Didn’t really talk to anyone.  Took the same number of sips of water.  Sat in the same spot.  That was until right before the fifth inning when my mom called me from the stands.  Earlier in the game, one of my teammates got his 100^th hit as a Middletown South Eagle and my mom wanted to make sure that I tell the umpire we needed to switch to the 100^th hit ball before the inning.  Thinking nothing of it, I of course obliged to the request.

Well, whether it be fatigue, coincidence or fate, I completely lost control of my two-seam fastball in inning number five.  I gave up my first base hit of the game and hit two other kids.  Now the bases were loaded and I was on the verge of getting kicked out of the game.  (By rule, if you hit three kids in one inning, you automatically get the heave-ho!)

Somewhere along the way, I managed to get two outs.  I was now one out away from my first varsity win and a somewhat-acceptable one-hit shutout.  That was until I drilled another kid.  Wow, that was embarrassing.  As the kid jogged to first base, the umpire stuck up his arm and called him back.

“Hold on,” he said.  “That hit the bottom of the bat.”

Of course, it didn’t.  (It was close though.)  He was just being nice.  He slowly walked out to the mound and said something to the affect of, “Come on kid.  Pull it together.  I think you need some different luck.  How about we switch balls?”

He tossed me a new, non-100^th hit ball and I proceeded to get the final out of the inning.  Game over.  That was a lot harder than it had to be.  Thanks a lot mom!!  (Kidding!!!)

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings  

Saturday, October 15

Race 5 – Yeah, yeah.  I’m aware of trainer Jim Ryerson’s tepid layoff numbers.  Still, I didn’t think my morning line on Black Market Money (3-1 co-2^nd choice) was that bad.  The colt had good figures (relatively), was dropping substantially, and had Elvis Trujllo on board.  So, I’ve got to think that Black Market Money’s off-price of 6-1 (He was the second longest shot in the race.) was a clear indication of being dead on the board.  He ran a dull fifth in the six-horse field, but did show some late interest when asked a bit in the stretch and actually pulled up fairly strongly past the wire.  Is a drop to the $5,000 conditioned claiming basement and a stretch out (His lone win came at one mile.) in his future?

Race 6 – Last finishing Jennifer’s Romeo has nothing to show for her three starts against winners and that’s really too bad because she’s a much improved filly.  Two-back she dueled hard for seven furlongs while hung very wide in her route debut, last time she was the best finishing close-to-the-pace horse in a contest with scorching fractions, and here she endured a torturous journey.  Jockey Chuckie Lopez apparently had major equipment problems early which prevented him from putting Jennifer’s Romeo on the front end – where she projected to be given the race’s lack of pace.  Once Lopez regained control, he asked the Jason Servis trainee to make a huge backstretch move and battle for the lead.  Expended from her efforts, Jennifer’s Romeo wound up well-beaten.  Two turns still could work for her – especially with a big drop in class.  If Lopez shows up back on board, I’d construe it as a big positive.  (Entered in a basement sprint switching to an apprentice in Race 4 on Sunday.)

Race 7 – If class is the ability to withstand pressure, then professionalism is the ability to come back from adversity.  Only one race after his problems on board Jennifer’s Romeo, Chuckie Lopez came back here on Wild Rainbow and made the front and cleared the field in 10 strides or less despite breaking from the difficult rail post.  Once the two clearly were on top, the race was over.

            Runner-up Emotional Lady ran well again here after winning a lower rung New Jersey-bred race last time.  In this optional event, she was eligible to run for the non-winners-of-two-other-than condition, but owner/trainer Mike Sedlacek instead opted to run his $5,000 July claim for the $15,000 claiming tag.  Owners Alma and Roy Lomas and trainer Trish Farro took the bait and Sedlacek cashed out.  Given the $46,000 purse of these second-rung, state-bred contests, both parties likely got a good deal. 

Race 8 – When favored Punchin’ Chudy and second choice Ormolu squandered each other’s reserves in a needless speed duel, apprentice Eddie Jurado and Crytocandiac were perfectly-placed to swoop down on first-run, stretch leader Tough Market in the final strides.  The winner was the sixth this season for trainer Tony Margotta with new acquisitions – and the first one that did NOT join his barn via the claim box.  The filly was inside in her last three races – all losses as a short-priced favorite – and likely appreciated her outside trip here.

Sunday, October 16

Race 1 – What a difference a furlong and a few thousand dollars in claiming price can make!  Wardelle had been uncompetitive early and barely competitive late in a series of local, five-furlong turf races at a slightly higher level.  However, on this circuit those contests have gotten stronger and stronger in recent years with a corresponding exponential increase in the intensity of their early paces.  Dropping slightly, stretching out and eighth of a mile, and returning to dirt, Wardelle here was on top of a vulnerable front-runner out of the gate and never was threatened once inheriting the lead on mid-turn.

Race 2 – More Veggies’ biggest problem on the quest to break his maiden had been coming from too far back off the early pace to give his late rally a realistic chance of succeeding.  New jockey Angel Serpa attempted to address that issue today and made an aggressive move leaving the first turn that put the gelding just off the embattled leaders soon after entering the backstretch.  But, especially for cheap horses, energy expended early often leads to an energy void late.  To their credit, More Veggies and Serpa kept grinding and trying when runner-up Peanutbutterbrown drew away in upper stretch and looked home free.  More Veggies got up right at the wire, but only due to the limitations of the game but even wearier front-runner.

Race 4 – Runner-up first-timer Hakama gamely pursued well-seasoned, versus good competition, Dangerous Trick, but couldn’t overcome that one’s profound tactical advantage as the lone speed.  Still, Hakama displayed sufficient early foot and a long enough stride to be a major candidate for significant improvement when he stretches out.

            Favored, third-finishing firster Junebugred raced greenly on the backstretch, finished okay, and galloped out decently.  He has scope for advancement – but I still would have liked to see more from a horse who was training well in New York and could have run in a plethora of spots at Belmont. 

Now, great can mean a lot of things.  It doesn’t specifically mean best physical performance.  It doesn’t specifically mean most dramatic victory.  It doesn’t specifically mean most exciting race.  It’s a combination of things. 

For the purposes of the following Top 10 list, great does mean that the replay has to be on YouTube – otherwise I wouldn’t be able to get a link.

The Top 10 Greatest Performances of 2011 (So Far) 

10) Dialed In winning the Holy Bull – Unfortunately, his 2011 season was cut short due to injury, but this race put Dialed In on the verge of superstardom.  There was A LOT of buzz about Dialed In before this race at Gulfstream – trust me, I was there.  After this effort, Dialed In could have run for political office.

9) Amazombie “winning” the Los Angeles H. – He ultimately got DQ’d for interference in the stretch, but his toughness, ruggedness and downright bullying of a way through made me a fan.  In the upcoming Breeders’ Cup Sprint, he may not be good enough, but you darn well know he’s not going to shy away from a tough spot.  He’ll be my top pick.

8) Coil winning the Haskell – Before the race, I thought Coil would sit close to the pace.  Before the race, I thought Coil was going to win.  During the race, I was stunned to see Coil in last.  During the race, I didn’t think there was a way Coil would win.  After the race, I was very, very impressed.

7) It’s Tricky winning the Coaching Club American Oaks – Nothing better than a head-to-head battle for the entire length of the stretch.

6) Tackleberry winning the Gulfstream Park H. – Gameness aside, take a look at who was in this race.  Rule is a very solid stakes horse.  Duke of Mischief won a $1 million race this year.  Tizway won the Met Mile and is a leading contender to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic and earn Horse of the Year honors.  Jackson Bend won the Grade 1 Forego this year and may be the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.  Tackleberry, a horse many people haven’t even heard of, held off all of them.

5) Animal Kingdom winning the Kentucky Derby – Anytime you beat 18 horses I think you deserve to make the top five.  I actually think the run he put in around the far turn of the Belmont after nearing fall on his face at the start was equally if not more impressive than this victory.  I can’t wait for him to be back.  I miss him.

4) Caleb’s Posse winning the King’s Bishop – This race had a little bit of everything – a  blistering early pace, a returning 2-year-old champion taking the lead in mid-stretch, and the pent-up power of your eventual winner.

3) Game On Dude winning the Hollywood Gold Cup – This one had a little bit of everything as well – a stubborn foe on the lead, the approaching daunting presence of the heavy favorite, and the even faster-approaching presence of the super-sized First Dude.

2) Winter Memories winning the Garden City – My thoughts during the stretch of this race:  “Come on find a way through.  Oh no, she’s completely blocked.  Oh, she found a way out, but it’s too late.  Holy &%^*.”  

1) Blind Luck winning the Delaware H. – Two great fillies absolutely throwing it down. 

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Friday, October 14 

Race – NJ Esq, more lightly raced and also better rested than all her rivals, was masterful in a “nolo contendere” case.  Don’t be surprised if the filly successfully rises back to the state-bred non-winners-of-two allowance level before the meeting concludes.

Race 2 – Winning trainer Juan Serey had seven exacta finishes between May 30 and June 12.  Then nothing – at least until July 3 when he had four exacta finishes between that date and July 15.  Big D’s triumph here gave the streaky Serey three victories in the last four racing days.

            4^th-finishing dropdown Sounds Appealing ran deceptively decently against the grain on a dirt surface (sealed and hovering between muddy and sloppy) wetter than he prefers.  He can make a bigger dent in the exotics on dry land.

Race 3 – Small fields can be more compelling tactically than large ones.  Just ask jockeys Paco Lopez and Victor Santiago.  The former was on maiden-breaker Harlan’s Point while the latter was astride 3^rd-finishing Key to the Empire.  Both rode each other close but fairly in an excellent example of sound race riding.  Lopez tried to swing out on the second turn to mount his rally and Santiago did all he could – within legitimate limits – to keep him behind horses from the quarter pole until mid-stretch.  When Harlan’s Point and Lopez simply were finishing too well to be contained, Santiago and Key to the Empire relented and focused on saving the show (unsuccessfully).

Race 5 – Winning conditioner Colin Maragh now has seven victories at the Monmouth meeting.  Three have come first race off a claim, one was second time off a claim, and New York dropdown Black Diablo here was first start for Maragh after being transferred privately from another barn.

            3^rd-finishing Caylee’s Song hates wet, sealed ground and got little in the way of pace help.  He was very game to get up for the show – all things considered.

Race 6 – Zero Rate Policy is a bit of a bully.  He dominated average competition earlier this year, but then had sand kicked in his face by genuine tough guys in his last three.  Still, he showed some fight through the stretch last time at Delaware and though his main pace rival here was a New Jersey-bred with fading form, Zero Rate Policy’s strikingly powerful lead change in upper stretch could be a genuine indication that the gelding is ready to challenge his equals.

Race 7 – Raging Six scored here first time back on dirt for a tag – the conditions when he last triumphed last December 6 at Calder.  He was 21-1 today.  His trainer, Mary Hartmann, now has seven winners this Monmouth meeting.  The other prices have been 8-1, 9-1, 12-1, 35-1, 50-1 and 56-1.  (She’s also been second at 14-1 and 60-1.)  A flat win bet on every Mary Hartmann starter this season currently would be yielding a rate of return of over 330%.  Who needs a plunging stock market when a horseplayer has Mary Hartmann?

Saturday, October 15 

Race 1 – Great job by Hardly A Saint, an erstwhile tepid-breaker and deep-closer, and jockey Deirdre Panas.  They broke decently despite the inside post and hustled up to steal the track from expected clear pacesetter and even-money favorite Black Tie Spirit.  Panas quickly steered the former away from the backstretch wet spots and never gave the less than stout-hearted latter any opportunity to close the gap to a manageable, courage-rousing margin.  With less than 50 mounts for the entire season, Panas remains the best kept secret in the Monmouth jockey’s room.  Wining trainer Michael Lerman continues to get the most out of his low-profile barn.  His horses round to form in a coherent manner and he’s proven adept at managing their campaigns at multiple venues.  He’s one of the best kept secrets on the local backstretch.

Race 2 – New blinkers did the trick for Great Big Bang, who was able to stay close enough early wearing the hood to make his grinding style effective on the cut back.

            Runner-up Black Bullet walked out of the gate, but finished decently and pulled up with relative vigor.  His pedigree, stride, and training pattern of 12 closely-spaced and uninterrupted works indicate that two turns should be ideal for the colt conditioned by stretch-out master Gregory Sacco.

Race 4 – A fine ride from the 11 post by jockey Mike Luzzi on victor D’Lucci Girl.  Luzzi hustled his mount early into a position that allowed him to go less wide on the second turn than did favored runner-up Tonigail, who broke from the rail and generally has more tactical foot.  The ground saved likely made a key difference in a contest decided by a mere 1 ¼ lengths.

On Saturday, Nov. 5, Monmouth Park will host the first-ever Breeders’ Cup Party & Handicapping Seminar.  The event is $40 and includes valet parking, Clubhouse admission, official track program, lunch buffet, and an exclusive handicapping seminar and tip sheet from Brad Thomas and me.

We’re still taking reservations and are currently up over 100 attendees.  Feel free to tell all your friends and if you or anyone you know has any questions, you/they can email me at bskirka@njsea.com.

Brad and I have high hopes for this event, so hopefully a few of you Monmouth Park blog loyalists can attend.

Don’t wait too long to make your reservation because space is limited.

This concludes the cheap plug.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings  

Sunday, October 9

Race 4 – 4^th-finishing Miami Music is a bit goofy and apparently marches only to the beat of his own drummer.  He does have ability, however, but is currently too mentally unreliable to run to his talent level.

            Poor 5^th-finishing Enoki Chief!  As if he doesn’t have enough gate issues of his own to deal with, 6^th-finishing Bear Tracks bore in at the start and almost slammed him into West Long Branch.  The newly-blinkered Enoki Chief showed an even better backstretch burst than usual to actually reach contention on the turn and then gamely kept trying in the lane even after he’d clearly expended himself.  Enoki Chief desperately needs an outside draw and likely lives in hope that a lower level New Jersey-bred maiden claimer for juveniles will be carded before the end of the meeting.

Race 6 – Normally rallying, even-money Vow to Honor shook things up tactically here when he dragged a not-all-that-reluctant jockey Elvis Trujillo through a gaping hole out of the first turn and opened up a clear lead on the backstretch.  The move probably helped runner-up Call Me Sweetheart because it relieved that one of the lead responsibilities and allowed him to revert to his more comfortable pressing role.  However, the greatest beneficiary likely was winner Andysun, who rallied up another open rail when Vow to Honor, who actually finished a fairly game third, tired on the second turn and drifted a bit off the fence.

Race 7 – Maiden breaker Demi Tasse had engaged in tough duels in each of her three previous races.  She had more starts than anybody else in here and had an additional foundation edge (especially on the two well-bet firsters) as she also was cutting back from two turns.

            Runner-up Suivez Moi was slightly late changing leads, but responded grittily once she did so approaching mid-stretch and made a second run.  With her pedigree, foot, honesty, and seasoning she is now an especially live candidate to stretch out.

            3^rd-finishing Adding Alpha was the 2-1 second choice off a series of very good drills.  She has a bit of turf in her pedigree and was sold at a 2-year-old in training sale where she worked on synthetic.  After her green, jammed-up-in-traffic debut here, don’t be surprised if more distance and a new surface is in Adding Alpha’s future.

Race 8 – Maybe victor Silent Appeal is a bit of an in-and-outer formwise.  Or maybe he just insists on being loose on the lead.  Perhaps it’s a combination of both.  Regardless, when the stars and style are aligned, the colt just might have the potential to be the top New Jersey-bred router on this circuit next year.

Race 9 – Hermosillo is fast, tough, capable of staying an extended two turns, and expertly managed.  When shipping, slight dropdown Bernie the Maestro (6^th of six) conceded him the lead early, he might as well simply written him a check for the winner’s share of the purse.

            3^rd-finishing At the Disco sat off the pace – again – and might, at this stage of his 53-race career, insist on being in the early mix.

            Second-choice Primary Witness (5^th) runs well off mini-layoffs, but perhaps not 84 days fresh with a worktab short in distance and soft in time when measured against his usual morning standards.

Monday, October 10

Race 1 – Battle of T Giants was trainer Yvon Belsoeur’s sixth win of the Monmouth season and fit the pattern of most of his victories.  Belsoeur’s horses often improve into their form cycles and workouts – whether in the period between starts or before a racing program develops – generally are indicative of ability.

            Runner-up, New York-based dropdown Deflate the Bubble was absurdly overbet at 1-2 while returning from yet another layoff.  She might have to plummet to the basement to justify – maybe – such short odds in the future.

Race 3 – Usually last early, Valentine Daisy was sharp enough here to be in front of two foes shortly after leaving the gate and that improved tactical dimension put her in position to run down a weaker group than the ones she had been facing recently.  Trainer Stephen L. DiMauro had two local wins before September 9, but now has five victories since then.

            Slamming – slammed to even money – was another way-overbet New York shipper.  The inflated figure that provoked such impetuosity was earned in an off-the-turf $25,000 maiden claimer contested over a sloppy, sealed track at an abbreviated, 5 1/2-furlong distance.  In short, it came under circumstances that bore no resemblance whatsoever to what the filly was being asked to do today in only her third lifetime start against rivals who all were going to post with at least five races of foundation themselves.

Race 4 – Thisonesforruthie just lasted to give trainer Tim Hills his third triumph since Sept. 18 (He also has two place finishes in that period.).  Four of the Hills exacta horses were coming off respites of 29, 53, 64 and 193 days.

Race 5 – Warming up on the track before this race, Who’s the Cowboy looked absolutely spectacular.  He strutted around like he owns the place.  Which, of course, he does.  The millionaire won for the 14^th time on the local dirt and, remarkably, at age nine has managed to reinvent himself as a middle-moving, two-turn horse after spending the first seven years of his career as a deep, deep closing sprinter.  All of Who’s the Cowboy’s many trainers should be commended for his ability to still compete at a meaningful class level in his 69^th career start, but the last two – Peter Walder and current conditioner Chuck Spina – deserve extra credit.

Race 7 – Farmer Jones isn’t the biggest.  The prettiest.  The quickest to move smoothly between horses.  Or the most willing to change leads through the stretch.  But give him a clear run and point him at a target, and you’ll get an honest run.  It was good enough here to get Farmer Jones past the pacesetter before holding off the cavalry in deep stretch.  Oh, and by the way, he isn’t the likeliest to last an inch past today’s one-mile distance, either.

By the time early summer rolled around, 2011 was shaping up to the “The Year of Napravnik.”  She won the riding title at the Fair Grounds.   In doing so, she won the $1 million Louisiana Derby.  And she rode Pants on Fire in the Kentucky Derby.  And just like fellow female superstar Zenyatta, Napravnik’s fame actually brought people to the track and attracted wagering dollars.  (After all, isn’t that the point?)

With all due respect to Pants on Fire who is a nice horse, would he have been second choice in the Kentucky Derby if Rosie Napravnik wasn’t aboard?  I don’t think so. 

When that same horse won Monmouth’s Pegasus Stakes, would there have been screaming people four and five deep around the winner’s circle if Rosie Napravnik wasn’t riding?  I don’t think so.

Napravnik is not only a great rider, she’s a tremendous ambassador for Thoroughbred racing and the sport is much better off with her back in the spotlight. 

Welcome back Rosie!!

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Fall turf racing is a beautiful thing.  But making money on fall turf racing is even better.  Let’s try to do just that in Saturday’s Hawthorne Derby.  #10 Breathless Storm showed a new and powerful dimension last out when winning the Jersey Derby on Haskell Day.  The son of Storm Cat sat much closer to the pace and closed strongly beneath an ultra-confident Paco Lopez.  Breathless Storm was originally targeting the Grade 3 Kent at Delaware a few weeks back before that race was rained off the turf.  (Paco Lopez was scheduled to ride that day.)  On Saturday, Senor Storm has post position No. 10 in Hawthorne’s 10^th race.  (Paco Lopez is again scheduled to ride.)  I’m in.

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Was there any more visually impressive performance this year than that of 3-year-old filly Winter Memories last out?  I mean, how dominant could a horse be?  On Saturday, Winter Memories tackles seven in the Grade 1 QEII at Keeneland.  All year, and I mean ALL year, this race was targeted by trainer Jimmy Toner as Winter Memories’ Breeders’ Cup.  You have to believe she is 100% cranked for this race.  She is almost guaranteed to be overbet, however, with all the buzz surrounding her last effort.  Depending on your inclination, this may be the time to try to pick a price and beat Winter Memories.  Or it might be the time to simply sit back and watch her role.  I’ll be taking Door No. 2.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Saturday, October 8

Race 1 – Winner Jungle Rain now is out of conditions.  One subsequent move for trainer Anthony Margotta could be to bring him back again versus older, but in an open, basement claimer.  Perhaps a better option, however, would be a fairly (two or three times) significant boost in possible purchase price against straight 3-year-olds.  The gelding’s easy speed even could make him a threat going an abbreviated distance (less than six furlongs) against a depleted, late-season, non-winners-of-one allowance field.

Race 2 – With Herculon’s triumph here, two next-out winners and two subsequent runner-ups now have emerged from Race 4 on Sept. 18.  I guess that means improving, second-finishing-out-of-that-contest Magic Dreamer and pace-setting, fourth-finisher Bubba Jones should be respected when they next compete.  The latter is entered in Race 9 on Saturday.

Race 3 – Winning conditioner Glenn Thompson doubled his win total for the meeting with consecutive scores with Herculon in Race 2 and Burning Calories here.  Runner-up returnee Forensic Edge is eligible for a non-winners-of-a-race-in-six-months combination claimer and would be very tough next out at that level.  (She’s entered in such a spot in Race 4 on Saturday, but it’s not that easy!)  The last time the latter mare finished first at Monmouth was on July 30, 2010 in her lone lifetime start for former trainer Glenn Thompson.

            3^rd-finishing Skip Away Belle (conditioned by Glenn Thompson’s father, J. Willard) improved, especially pace figurewise, and did so while racing on a dull rail.

Race 5 – 3^rd-finishing Straight Arrow was primed to run well when dropping down second off a layoff three starts back on August 20.  Unfortunately for him – maybe – the previously deep-closing gelding showed unusually strong early foot that day and faltered from the effort of keeping up with fast fractions.  After tepid performances reverting to his rallying ways in his last two, Straight Arrow went hard to the lead here and held well.  The dual-personality Trish Farro trainee might have found his true self for future runs.

Race 7 – Maiden-breaking, third timer Geeky Gorgeous, with a stout pedigree on both sides, surely appreciated the stretch here to six furlongs, but she likely enjoyed her new blinkers just as much.  The New Jersey-bred juvenile filly made start-stop runs in her first two races, but had one sustained burst here after recovering from a slow beginning.  Two turns at age three should only help her earnings potential.

            Runner-up Gracefully Mean, way over bet at 4/5 off a game debut, pressed an overmatched early foe through soft fractions while running comfortably and simply had no answer for the winner when challenged. 

Race 8 – Journey to Nowhere took a considerable step up in class off his easy score in the maiden basement last out and showed a new dimension here.  The gelding battled inside, responded positively and professionally when eased back off the pacesetter, angled out, rallied, and drew off dominantly.  Journey to Nowhere could have blown off early foe Knock Out Punch Kid any time he wanted to and that rival is a very fast horse if only for a half-mile.  Given the Jane Cibelli trainee’s deceptively very good grass pedigree on both sides, I wouldn’t be surprised if turf sprints prove to be Journey to Nowhere’s ultimate destination as he matures.

Sunday, October 9

Race 1 – Bombardo finally got the perfect set-up and trip he needs and broke his maiden in his 9^th career start.

            Faltering, fifth-finishing second-timer Frappe La Rue is fast, but flighty.  Blinkers on, a significant drop in class, and an outside post could make him focused and fearless.

Race 2 – Victor Beacon Beach moved to an inner-more post, yet still broke much better than he did when defeating similar rivals – in similarly game fashion – a few weeks ago.  Credit jockey Felix Ortiz with some excellent gate work for the second straight day – the rider successfully hustled out rail-drawn Back Pocket Money to a speed-popping score in Saturday’s Race 9.

            Runner-up PJ’s Back responded to more aggressive tactics switching to jockey Angel Serpa first off the claim for the Javier Gonzalez barn, but was simply outgamed by the winner after a very fast-paced duel.

            3^rd-finishing Max’s First apparently got fed up with getting dirt kicked in his face for the third race in a row.  The gelding dropped back farther than usual (even considering the pace) and only ran when he got clear and outside.  He actually finished decently late and pulled up well past the wire.

Race 3 – Trainer Steve Asmussen does superb work with pricey acquisitions and well-connected homebreds, but Sasueno here was his third victory this meeting with horses first race off the claim.  All were ridden by jockey Elvis Trujillo and all happened to rally from well back after being perfectly set up by vigorous pace duels.

            Runner-up returnee Harbor Breeze was super holding off all but the trip-advantaged winner after dueling through quick fractions.

Constant-professional and 2010 Breeders’ Cup Mile runner-up Gio Ponti has continued to retain his top form year after year.  He may settle for minor awards going longer against Europeans, but going a mile he’s one tough dude.  Look for the Breeders’ Cup Mile to turn out pretty similar to last year.  Gio Ponti strikes the lead at the 1/8^th pole, Goldikova mows him down late.

Leading 2-year-old Union Rags turned in a beauty in the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont yesterday.  The Michael Matz trainee really looked powerful coming home the final eighth of a mile and is clearly one of the more visually-impressive sophomores in the country heading to Churchill in less than a month.  After watching him cruise home yesterday, he’s got my vote.

Speaking of Grade 1 races for 2-year-olds, how impossible is it to handicap those types of events at Keeneland?  There are always 12 horses or more, there are always horses from all over the country, and there are always dirt, turf and synthetic horses.  I mean, with all due respect, how could you handicap the winner of yesterday’s Breeders’ Futurity?  A maiden coming off a pair of turf races at Saratoga.  I think the best handicapping strategy is to find singles elsewhere and use ALL in these types of races.

*          *            *            *

If you happened to see me around the track this weekend, the reason for that huge smile on my face was because I found an apartment in Florida for my return to Gulfstream Park.  It’s further away from the track than I was last year (I guess it’s hard to be closer than 1.2 miles) but it’s right across the street from the beach.  Pretty excited about it.

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Unfortunately, I didn’t get to witness the Yankees being extricated from the playoffs by the Tigers the other night.  With my gut feeling all night that the Bronx Bombers were going to come back and win, I just couldn’t bear to watch past the seventh inning.  However, I was thrilled to see the following morning that I was wrong – and that A-Rod struck out to end the game.  It’s amazing how the pressure of the playoffs can have such an effect on very good players.  How bad a series did Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and (of course) A-Rod have?  It’s not a coincidence that the Yankees no longer win the World Series on a consistent basis.  In their hey-day it was Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams and Paul O’Neill.  Now it’s A-Rod, Tex and Swish.  The numbers say the latter three are superior players.  The first three can play for me any day – especially in October.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings  

Sunday, October 2

Race 1 – Dropdown Mystical Rhythms might have had a class edge, but her other key advantage was her versatility.  The filly can lead or follow, grind or accelerate.  The race shape here dictated the latter alternatives were required and the Jason Servis trainee delivered.

            Third-finisher Soccittomebaby’s trainer, Bruce Levine, had no exacta finishers at Monmouth Park between August 20 and October 1.  But yesterday, he had two wins (one at 9-1) with horses coming off respites of 28 and 42 days.  Soccittomebaby’s game, hard-used, and scorching-paced effort here at 13-1 off a 41-day break bodes decently for her taking a shot in the depleted, late season New Jersey-bred allowance ranks.

Race 2 – Jockey Navin Mangalee saw an opportunity to slice to the rail and save some ground going into the turn before swinging out to better footing in the stretch on rallying Miss Bar A.  The rider’s nifty move probably wasn’t necessary as the race played out, but it’s still great to see thought and initiative blended with physical skill!  Winning trainer Pat McBurney continues to exceed his overall numbers with horses cutting back in distance.

            3^rd-finishing, second-off-a-layoff Celtic Blessing broke well, but then dropped back and settled into a steady grind.  The leggy filly likely would appreciate two turns, but could have trouble finding a viable spot going long.  Perhaps the addition of blinkers – and a possible drop – would keep her sufficiently in the game early sprinting to allow for a legitimate stretch shot.  Joan Milne, her low profile trainer, has two victories at the meet.  One has come stretching out, the other with blinkers on.

Race 3 – Sabercat improved on his hard-dueling maiden triumph over subsequent dominant graduate My Adonis by sitting a perfect trip just off battling leaders in the Garden State Stakes.  The Steve Asmussen trainee exhibited newly-discovered acceleration and sustained it like he has graded potential.  At the very least, the son of Haskell Invitational star Bluegrass Cat has the tactical versatility to create his own future racing experiences.

Race 4 – Dubai Gold, first race off the claim, gave conditioner Ed Coletti, Sr. his second victory in two days.

            The 12-1 runner-up Lockup was yet another horse to run well in conditioned claiming company after resting up and becoming recently eligible – in his case by 17 days.  The 8-year-old’s most recent win came at this level in March off a 97-day layoff and here he was returning with 51 days between starts.

Race 5 – Don Six’s Number is fast.  She’s very fast.  But she’s also coy because she doesn’t show everything she has and doles out her bursts in relatively small doses.  The New Jersey-bred has plenty of restricted-race purse money to make in the next year or so, but when the conditions run out has a pedigree that provides her with a follow-up plan.  That would be in turf sprints.

Race 6 – Tough Market had a condition (non-winners-of-three-lifetime) and a pedigree to improve with continued racing when she was claimed by trainer Jason Servis on September 5.  Servis now has won twice this Monmouth season with new acquisitions and three times with animals running under his name for the second time.

Race 7 – With a name like The Hunk, you had better be good.  Or at least good looking.  The 4-year-old is both.  The Jersey-bred beat open company as a 2-year-old in his debut, but then had his share of career-stunting issues and lost five races in a row.  His last two, however, have been improving, dominant romps over state-breds and The Hunk, with some strength-building rest, might be ready to return to open company – perhaps in November at Aqueduct.

Race 9 – Joe Hollywood is modest in stature, but explosive in talent.  He bottomed out this quick-paced group with a humungous second quarter – on the turn – and won with speed in reserve.  He has to prove he can withstand early pressure from a rival who has not recently competed for a claiming tag, but when he does (I think he will!) races of the highest grade will be within his limit.  Joe Hollywood acts on wet or dry dirt, turf, and probably synthetic, too, if you’re willing to cut him a break for his tough-trip Keeneland debut. 

Keeneland Race 6 – The Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America – #10 Switch looks like a very tough animal to beat at 9/5 on the morning line, but how about #9 Devil by Design at a more acceptable 12-1 on the ML.  The former has never been off the board on the various plastics and has finished in very close proximity to Havre de Grace, Blind Luck and Zazu in her three most-recent starts.  The latter is a perfect 2-for-2 over synthetic surfaces including a win at Keeneland.  There’s nothing wrong with that half-mile bullet breeze in :46 on October 1, either! 

Keeneland Race 7 – The Grade 1 First Lady – Boy, a lot of runners with talent in here.  (Yeah, I know, it’s a Grade 1, what do you expect.)  But there are also a lot of consistent runners.  #3 Daveron is on a three-race winning streak and has shown improvement in each and every one.  Euro-import Together is only 2-for-14 lifetime but has finished second in four Group 1 races.  #8 Wasted Tears is tough as nails with her A-game and is 8-2-0 from 11 career starts at a mile.  #9 Theyskens’ Theory – cross-entered in a race Sunday – finished second behind “Queen” Winter Memories last out.  #12 Never Retreat has been first or second in six graded stakes races this year.  Tough to separate those.  Good thing the Pick 4 is a 50-cent base wager.

Keeneland Race 8 – The Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity – Could next year’s Kentucky Derby winner be in this field?  It’s possible.  It was about this time a year ago that Animal Kingdom won a maiden race at Keeneland.  These Grade 1 2-year-old races at Keeneland are always impossible to handicap, though.  Huge fields, inexperienced runners – I mean I have a headache already.  I’ll key in on three of the more outward-drawn horses in the field.  #8 Lucky Chappy has tip-top connections for his first start in the good ol’ USA.  #11 Take Charge Indy has run a pair of solid races over the Arlington synthetic and gets blinkers on after “shifting in” last out.  And #12 Optimizer is a turf horse trying the synthetic for the first time.  He’s out of one of my favorite horses – and now sires – English Channel.

Keeneland Race 9 – The Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile – Well, this is certainly some kind of turf race!  Let’s take a look.  Oh, how about seven of the eight horses are graded stakes winners and the one that isn’t hails from Europe, missed by a neck in a Group 2 two-back, and lost by a length in the Woodbine Mile last out with a running line of “blocked.”  I mean, come on.  The race only includes the two best turf horses in America – #5 Gio Ponti and #8 Get Stormy – plus a horse from Europe [#4 Zoffany] that lost to Frankel by less than a length back in June.  Maybe not against the likes of these, but I actually have always liked #6 Society’s Chairman who was second in this race a year ago at 18-1 and prefers two turns.  This is Zoffany’s race to lose, and Gio Ponti is the defending champ, but I think Get Stormy could be able to hold them both off in what is most likely his Breeders’ Cup Mile.

*          *            *            *

I feel compelled to say a few words about my other passion – that being baseball, more specifically playoff baseball.  What a scene Monday night in Detroit – even though I was distracted by a bowling league and later the Bucs on Monday Night Football – with C.C. Sabathia against Justin Verlander.  And what a different kind of scene Tuesday as every Yankees fan feared for the worst with the impending appearance of A.J. Burnett. 

I’ve watched a lot of baseball in my 26 years of living.  I’ve lived a lot of baseball in that time, too.  And I felt pretty confident heading into Game 4 that Burnett – who has some of the nastiest stuff in all of Major League Baseball but has been just dreadfully inconsistent in the last few years – would come through with a big effort.  After all, it’s a lot easier to do something when everyone expects nothing from you.

However, after Burnett walked the bases loaded in the first inning, I was on the verge of admitting I was wrong.  As a Yankee hater, I was also on the verge of loving every second of it.  With the bases loaded and two outs, TBS analyst John Smoltz – who was an amazing pitcher in his time and is now a GREAT analyst – said Burnett needs an “at-him ball.”  Pretty much, Smoltz was saying that there was no way Burnett was going to do something good, so all he could do was hope to get lucky and have the ball hit right at someone. 

Could he have been more right on the money?

What ensued was not one of the BEST catches I have seen, but one of, if not the, BIGGEST catches I have ever witnessed.  It wasn’t one of the best because Yankees centerfield Curtis Granderson mis-played the ball and made it a much tougher play than it really was.  But in terms of the Yankees season and A.J. Burnett’s career, it was HUGE!!! 

If that balls lands on earth and rolls to the wall, three runs score, the building goes nuts and Burnett is out of the game.  If that ball lands on earth instead of leather, A.J. Burnett very well be out of a job.  Imagine New York talk radio the day after Burnett lasts two-thirds of an inning in the biggest game of the year?  It wouldn’t be pretty.

With his catch, Granderson saved the game, saved the series, and saved A.J. Burnett from a lot of very bad things.

Man, I hate that guy!!

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

I heard someone waxing tributes to Goldikova before that great mare’s narrow defeat last week at Longchamp.  They intimated that many folks who were betting against her actually would wind up rooting for Goldikova if she and their play were dueling through the stretch.  Well, I guess I’m just cynical and greedy.  Because if I wagered on a horse owned by the worst human being in the world and Forego, my favorite horse of all time and the Goldikova standard to me, was rallying under 140 pounds trying to beat me, I would be straining for the former rather than the latter.  And, with apologies to the overly sentimental amongst us, I think the vast majority of people in the racing game would, if faced with the same situation, do what I would in their heart of hearts.  And none of us should be ashamed!  Money makes the mare – and the game – go!

And speaking of Goldikova, her third loss of the season is being excused far too readily by some people.  The most recent horse to beat her cost $11,000 as a yearling, had never shown top-tier ability beyond six furlongs (the Longchamp race was at seven panels), and was virtually retired – as a 3-year-old with an average pedigree – within moments of the upset.  Yes, Goldikova likely will be stepping down significantly in class when matched against North American turf horses in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but if any Euros of quality choose to take her on, I’ll have no problem swinging hard with them.

And as for last week’s 10 United States Breeders’ Cup Preview Day races run at Belmont and Santa Anita, they contained an average of 7.5 runners per race.  Actually, by 2011 standards, I think that’s pretty good.  But the reality is, that number will pale by comparison to what the average will be on the two days of the Breeders’ Cup.  The key point is the disconnect in qualitative quantity between Breeders’ Cup festivals and all other days of the racing year.  The BC contests are exponentially rougher, tougher and more competitive.  They require a different mindset on the part of the players – horses, jockeys, trainers, owners and bettors.

Saturday, October 1

Race 1 – Winning trainer Mike Sedlacek scored at 9-1 last Sunday with cutting back Emotional Lady and repeated that pattern here with Elite Class.  The filly rested up for five weeks waiting to be eligible for the non-winners-of-a-race-in-six-months side of this combination claimer and made the cut by two weeks.  (She last triumphed at Aqueduct on March 17.) 

Race 2 – Victor Electrick Kitty put her very good – on both sides – sealed, wet strip pedigree to good use.

            4^th-finishing firster Betorregret raced very greenly, but still showed a tactical dimension and perseverance.  Given the way she strides, it wouldn’t be surprising if turf or synthetics prove to be her most productive surfaces.

            5^th-finishing debuter Rebel Ways finished decently late and can improve in subsequent starts going longer and/or trying New Jersey-bred company.

Race 3 – Early in the meeting, combination conditioned claiming ranks were stronger than low-level state-bred claimers.  Now, it seems, the reverse is true if the dominant performance of Billy Mar N Mr. S on the move to New Jersey-bred company is any indication.  The filly dueled on a dull rail last time, but speed-popped this bunch with the switch from a seven-pound apprentice to Chuckie Lopez.

            Freshened up third-finisher My Honey B made two moves on a dullish rail and could be poised to stretch back out to her preferred, two-turn game.

Race 4 – Good job by jockey Pedro Cotto on Devilofanargument.  Cotto learned about the filly’s headstrong ways in his first ride aboard her last time and successfully applied those lessons here with a well-rated journey.  There’s a fine line between perfect rating and too much rating, and the underrated rider walked it to perfection.

            Not every offspring of one-time top New Jersey-bred sprinter Capture the Gold relishes wet, sealed surfaces, but his 4^th-finishing daughter, Gold Bargain, clearly does.  She fought hard here going a two-turn mile, but actually might be best suited cutting back to six furlongs.

Race 6 – One horse in here had run five times in 2011.  Everyone else only had competed once or twice this season or was a first-time starter.  That is except for Flower Patch.  That filly was running in her 11^th race of the season and proved yet another example of the fitness edge often enjoyed by heavily-raced animals late in a meeting.  Note, too, how trainer Russell Cash gave her 27 days between starts – her second longest respite of the current form cycle – in preparation for the highly superficial step up from state-bred $25,000 maiden claimers to this inflated $100,000 level.  One thing that wasn’t superficial was the $9,000 greater winner’s share of the higher-priced event.  Terrific job by Cash recognizing the way the NJ-bred maiden game is played and freshening up Flower Patch for an aggressive swing at a lucrative purse.

            Runner-up Mama Grizzly was all over the track and made several stop-and-start runs.  She burst nicely on the dullish rail into the stretch and continued gamely on the fence through the stretch.  She should improve next out, but since the state-bred maiden ranks currently are so depleted, could go off at an underlayed price.

Race 8 – Perhaps 1 1/16 miles is at the far end of Innisfree’s distance horizon, but the wet, sealed surface (He’s bred to the gills for it.), a perfectly-timed Chuckie Lopez middle-moving ride, and stretch foe Steady Gentleman being forced to fight it out on a dull inside all conspired to get him the victory.

            Third-finishing 6/5 favorite Cryin Out Loud, front bandages on and an uncoupled stablemate of runner-up Steady Gentleman, ran decently following a long break.  Still, I have a feeling he’s vulnerable next time off a likely relatively-quick return.  (Restricted money for New Jersey-breds in 2011 is on a short clock!)

Race 9 – It’s a bird!  It’s a plane!  No, it’s veteran war gelding Tastefully Smart swooping down on rivals while droping to a straight claiming level at which he’s a veritable superman.  The 7-year-old can do it on the lead or – as he showed here – from off the pace.

            Runner-up Open Outcry (11-1) was very game in defeat to stay for the place after battling relentless pressure from stretching out Just Playin Around.  The former is trained by Ed Coletti, Sr., who also sent out 7-1 Race 3 victor Billy Mar N Mr. S.  Both live Coletti horses took considerable early and middle-wagering dollars before drifting up to their off odds.

Race 10 – A huge day for jockey Pedro Cotto culminated with his fifth score of the afternoon on dropdown After Words.  All of Cotto’s victories were accomplished for a different trainer.

            Third-finishing Spell Run improved on the wet, sealed surface despite changing her style (sitting off the pace) and racing much of the time on a dullish rail.

Yeah, I was out of the Pick 4 after Leg #1.  Could anything in the world be more frustrating?  With all due respect to Vosburgh winner Giant Ryan, I wouldn’t have picked that horse to win if you gave me five tries.  And of course it didn’t help that Euroears was wiped out at the beginning of the race.  Well, it was fun while it lasted.  (Not really!!!)

So after that sequence of events put me in a sour mood, I got to drive home and watch the races from Santa Anita.  I actually missed the live running of the Lady’s Secret, but saw on ESPN that Zazu had won.  As the gigantic Blind Luck fan that I am – heading into the day she was my lock to win this year’s Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic and would be my pick should she run in the BC Classic – I figured it was ok.  She hadn’t run in a while – she probably ran second.  I went upstairs and watched the replay on my computer.  Ugh!  That wasn’t pretty.  Whatever the issue was, I hope it can all be figured out by Breeders’ Cup time.

So, that was strike two.  What else could possibly go wrong?

A few hours later the Yankees beat the Tigers.  Strike Three!!!

Below are Brad's thoughts on Saturday's races on they pertained to the Breeders' Cup.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings  

A week ago today was Monmouth Park steward Harvey Wardell’s last afternoon adjudicating New Jersey Thoroughbred racing.  Wardell has worked in the industry for 37 years and been a steward for 26 of them.  His great knowledge matches his vast experience, but his strongest trait is his determined inclination to protect the interests of racing’s invaluable, horseplaying customers.  Being a good steward requires performing a delicate balancing act while giving fair weight to all of the industry’s numerous interest groups.  Wardell has proven to be a tightrope walker supreme and any racing state in the country would do itself – and its lifeblood supplying patrons – a great service by snatching up his services.

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It’s been good to see that the price of yearlings has gone up at recent boutique sales.  Now, it’ll be great to watch reinvigorated commercial breeders do the right thing for the rest of an industry that is starved by a horse shortage.  It’s time to breed more – and more durable – desperately needed Thoroughbreds.

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Sunday, September 25

Race 1 – Two turns might have been too far last time for Shisha, but the five-furlongs of his first two starts clearly was too short.  Today’s six-furlongs hit him right between the fetlocks.  Conditioner Keith Dickey consistently does fine work with young horses.

            4^th-finishing firster Rockstar Cowboy has a frame, stride and pedigree that is all about distance.  He leveled off very late here in a useful experience.  Trainer Kathy Mongeon has done quiet good work for years with horses going two turns.

Race 2 – You see it all the time.  Whether it’s a Grade 1 stakes race or a mere $5,000 claimer like this.  Two seemingly committed front-runners in a race automatically insures a speed duel, right?  Wrong!  Invariably, one or more of the human elements involved outsmarts itself and decides some rating is in order.

            4^th-finishing – at 4/5 – My Boy And I’s recent improvement likely had as much to do with a hard-sending style as with a stretch out in distance.  The colt enjoys a fight and just keeps coming back for more – his intense, battling maiden win in August was an absolute thing of beauty.  Here, however, he was taken in hand right out of the gate and then – from a distant second – rankly, uncomfortably, and futilely pursued Call The Ball, who inherited a now easy lead in the capable hands of new jockey Chuck C. Lopez.  (At least with Lopez on board – especially off a switch – a handicapper can reasonably assume a speed’s a speed!)  The winner had significantly more time between starts for this race than he had in recent contests and conditioner Rudy Rodriguez outperforms his overall percentages by 50% (18% versus 27%) off mini layoffs.

            Two maxims can be taken from this lesson: 1) Two speeds don’t always equal a duel, but three or more exponentially increase the chances that the expected scenario will ensue.  2) My Boy And I will be sent for all he has in his next effort!

Race 3 – Wildcat Creek has a half-sister named D’Cats Meow who, a couple weeks ago, finished second at Monmouth in the Mongo Queen stakes.  He has another half-sibling named Pomeroy’s Pistol, who broke her maiden locally and yesterday won the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom at Belmont.  The colt disappointed in his first two starts at juvenile-rich Calder, but credit trainer Ed Plesa with a shrewd move by shipping him to New Jersey.  With an outer-more post position than he had been drawing in Florida, Wildcat Creek showed easy early speed, a sharp burst into the stretch, and the ability to hold off a quality rival late in runner-up Well Spelled despite greenly and unfocusedly switching back to his incorrect, left lead in the final sixteenth.

            Last-of-six-finishing firster Dementor’s Kiss has sneaky speed and precocity in his pedigree.  He was in a bad spot for the first half of this race and was extremely uncomfortable running between, behind and amongst horses.  Once the colt got outside, his nerves and energy were shot and his large margin of defeat is an unlikely measure of his ability.  Dementor’s Kiss only cost $5,000 in a 2-year-old sale and has plenty of leverage for a drop from the special weight ranks to a maiden claimer.  He’s offering a smooch to a racing office clerk or helper who might draw him an outside post for his next start!

Race 4 – Low-profile trainers regularly are discussed in this space – mostly because they frequently provide bettors with opportunities for value.  No such conditioner is more capable than Paul Kopaj, who scored here with 13-1 Northward Bully.  Kopaj is excellent with firsters and experienced maidens (like Northward Bully), returnees and regularly-raced horses, and low-end claimers as well as stakes animals.  In short, he really can do it all.

Race 6 – Dropdown 3^rd-finishing Bearly Enough battled relentless tag-team pressure through blazing splits before yielding in upper stretch, but gamely kept trying to the wire to hold the show.

            5^th-finishing dropper-off-a-brief-layoff Rhyme N Rhythm was knocked out of her comfort zone by the very quick pace, but ran in spots and finished evenly.  She’s very dangerous with another dip and in a race she can control early.  Her underrated barn continues to do good work.

Race 7 – Who said a couple of days ago that apprentice Eddie Jurado needed to work on his rallying rides?  The light-handed bug delivered from-last-to-first perfection here with Miss Tallahassee.

Race 8 – 4^th-finishing firster (65-1) G’s Little Girl has an old – very old – school middle distance pedigree on both sides.  She made a decent middle move here behind three quality rivals and could be a nice fit on a drop, possibly with a stretch, and maybe in a start or two as well.

Grade 1 Vosburgh – Belmont Park, Race 7 – This is by far the race of the weekend and maybe the race of the year to this point.  As we look towards the Breeders’ Cup, it appears the sprint division is the deepest and in this race we get a little glimpse of that.  Last year’s reigning Champion Sprinter hasn’t lost since winning the 2010 BC Sprint (including a 120 Beyer Speed Figure effort this winter) and is NOT the morning-line favorite.  Force Freeze, who ran six furlongs in 1:07 3/5 at Monmouth on Haskell Day, is the longest shot on the board at 20-1.  That’s all you need to know about this race.  I’ve always liked #8 Trappe Shot and think he should get a good set-up here on a surface in which he’s never lost.  #4 Euroears in brilliantly fast.  Um, he WORKED six furlongs in 1:09 2/5 on Sept. 19!!  #6 Big Drama is the champ but this isn’t the ultimate goal.  #3 Apriority is another horse I’ve had my eye on this year, but my gut tells me he’s not going to be 100% cranked for this race.  #2 Force Freeze, at previously-mentioned odds of 20-1, has to be on my tickets somewhere. 

Grade 2 Kelso – Belmont Park, Race 8 – Another handicapping puzzle involving #3 Uncle Mo.  I thought he ran a spectacular race last time in the King’s Bishop when I didn’t know what to do with him.  Saturday will be no different.  It looks like if he and jockey John Velazquez choose, they could be lone speed.  But trainer Todd Pletcher has already come out and stated that the Breeders’ Cup Classic is the ultimate goal.  Wouldn’t it seem to reason, therefore, that Uncle Mo won’t be cranked to the gills?  I think I’m sticking with #1 Jersey Town.

Grade 1 Beldame – Belmont Park, Race 9 – #5 Havre Grace will be tough beat.  You’re welcome for that insightful handicapping – it took me a long time to come up with that analysis.  I’ll be interested to see what we get this time from #1 Life At Ten.  She’s obviously not the same mare as last year, but reports have her training as well as ever in her new blinkers.  I, for one, would love to see her return to her 2010 form.  Such a beautiful physical specimen deserves better than losing by 18 lengths as she did last out in the Del Cap.

Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup – Belmont Park, Race 10 – You unfortunately won’t find me searching for a price in this race either.  It’s just a matter of #1 Flat Out or #4 Stay Thirsty.  The top two choices on the morning line are just far and away the best in here.  #6 A.U. Miner is an interesting late runner, but – according to my brother – he’s more likely to win the Breeders’ Cup Marathon.

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Have to mention a few things about the drama that was last night’s finale to the Major League Baseball regular season.  Despite having no rooting interest and being completely exhausted from back-to-back days of fishing plus a day of golf on Wednesday, I just couldn’t turn off the action.

Within four channels (55-58 at my house), you had Yankees/Rays, Red Sox/Orioles and Braves/Phillies.  All three games had immense playoff implications and all ended in ultra-dramatic fashion. 

Every once in a while in the world of sports, you get a sequence of events that seems too good to be true.  Not even Hollywood would accept last night’s script:

First off, the Braves – once up 10.5 games on St. Louis in the Wild Card standings – completed an epic collapse with a blown save in the ninth.  But that was nothing.

Only one channel away, the Red Sox – who at the start of the month had an 8.5 game Wild Card lead – seemingly refused to break their game against the Orioles open and clung to a 3-2 lead heading into the bottom of the ninth.  The first two outs came easily.  The third and final out never came as the Orioles rallied for two runs and the win.

Only two channels away from that – and a mere five minutes later – the Tampa Bay Rays, who spotted the Yankees seven runs, scored six in the eighth and tied the game with a two-out, two-strike home run in the bottom of the ninth, clinched a spot in the playoffs with a walk-off homer. 

Simply unbelievable!!  Switching channels back and forth was like watching the MLB version of the first round of the NCAA tournament or the final round of the Masters.  I wanted to go to sleep – trust me – but I just couldn’t.  And boy am I glad I didn’t.  Nights such as last night are the reason that – no matter how much I love horse racing – I’ll always be a baseball guy at heart!!

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In other baseball news, Jose Reyes won the batting title via getting a hit in his first at bat of the season finale and then taking himself out of the game.  I’m still not sure how I feel about this one.  Reportedly, the batting title was extremely important to Reyes and will obviously be valuable to his negotiations as a free agent this winter.  I also thought sports was about competing, however.  Instead of taking himself out of the game, couldn’t Reyes have just gone out and gotten three more hits?  Like I said, I can see both sides of the argument on this one.  I do know one thing, though.  Batting title on the line or not, millions dollars at stake or not, closing day or not, you would have to break my legs for me to come out of a game.

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And lastly, as was evidenced by all the spelling and grammatical mistakes in the Brian Skirka portion of Sunday’s blog, I was a little preoccupied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game against the rival Atlanta Falcons.  It was a must-win for the Bucs if they have any dreams of becoming an elite team sooner rather than later.  Despite their best effort to throw the game away, the end result was a good one for Tampa Bay, but I’m still not sold.  A few breaks and bounces the other way and the Falcons could have easily won.  I don’t think they are mature enough for it to be this year, but in the next five years, the Bucs will be back in the NFC title game.  And in the next three years, Josh Freeman will become just an absolutely freakish beast.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Saturday, September 24

Race 1 – Low-profile conditioner Frances McNeely won her second race of the meet with 9-1 My Pal Val.  Both McNeely victors were improving (My Pal Val’s race two back at an unsuitable route and at a level too high is a complete toss in evaluating his form.) into their form cycles and scored third and fourth-time into their patterns respectively.

            Runner-up Quarry of Gold was super in defeat first time for trainer Juan Serey.  The gelding, despite being on a dull rail, scorched odds-on, .70-1, New York-based dropdown Cockeyed Rooster in a smoking duel, but faltered late when the winner loomed.

Race 2 – 18-1 runner-up Soulful showed much improved tactical acumen and finishing kick.  Note how conditioner Glenn Thompson gave her some additional time between starts as well as a much sharper morning drill than usual.  As the ranks grow thinner late in the season, horses with plenty of conditioning races under their belts will be matched up with each other.  Under such circumstances, the fit athlete who also has an extra week or two of rest could have the advantage.

Race 3 – When morning line favorite Katshill Bay scratched, speedy Boy G. broke poorly, and railed-posted Propellor Jones chose to play it cute and rate, Ishikawa was able to control this small group of stylistically-limited foes.  Winning apprentice Eddie Jurado continues to get major quicks out of his mounts.  Getting him and seven pounds off on a speed horse right now is a virtual steal, but Jurado does need to work on strength and coming from off the pace.

            The dirt opened the day muddy and harrowed, but – despite no additional rain falling – was sealed from Race 3 till the card’s conclusion.

Race 4 – Last week, trainer Stephen DiMauro did a super job with rested, sharp working Hermosillo on New Jersey-bred Festival Day.  Today, he proved that he knows the meaning of developmental form cycles.  Third-timer Halls of Ivy was second-time lasix, blinkers and in the same class after a drop following a progressive pace and final figure effort on a dull rail.  The colt exploded forward here like a 2-year-old with such a profile should in the hands of a sharp horseman.  Observe Hall of Ivy’s quick return to the worktab on Sept. 12, 10 days after his last race, followed by a quicker drill a mere six days later.  DiMauro knew what he had.

Race 5 – Every serious contender in the filly division of the NATC Futurity was stretching out and making only their second career start.  That is everybody except victor My Due Process.  The Dale Romans trainee already had competed five times and was cutting back from a 1 1/16-mile turf effort.  She changed leads smoothly and perfectly and was drawing away late.  Neither the second nor third-place finishers switched leads through the entire stretch run.  Foundation and experience do count.

            3^rd-finishing Fiftyfour Forever, who broke from the 10-post in her debut, drew the rail here and was green out of the box and inside rivals on the backstretch.  She moved into a live pace after her slow beginning, dropped back substantially into the turn, angled out very wide, made an excellent middle move on the bend, and continued very gamely through the lane while on the wrong lead.  She has upside.

Race 6 – Marquet Cat needed to rate off stretching out sprinter Caffe d’Oro to win this race.  The erstwhile, one-dimensional front-runner could and did.

            3^rd-finishing Street Haven was tempted by a big, inside hole when the winner drifted out into the stretch.  He took the bait, but his late charge was muted by the dullness of his chosen path.

Race 7 – With a name like My Adonis, you had better be pretty good.  And the colt with a later-developing pedigree finally proved it here.  Don’t be surprised to see him run well in the nine-furlong Remson at Aqueduct in November after easily repulsing the stretch-challenge of expensive, well-bred, and promising Steve Asmussen trainee Tritap.

            6^th-finishing Gold Policy dueled with the winner on a dullish rail before weakening.  The stoutly-bred colt cost only $4,000 as a yearling and, with two races of route foundation, would be super dangerous dropping to maiden claimers.

Race 10 – 4^th-finishing One Wild Bell was dueling or very close to the early pace in her last two sprints, yet rated here off the stretch out.  Maybe she’ll send next time with an outer-more draw and in a less pacey field.

Race 11 – Underrated conditioner Kevin Fields scored here with Toots at 11-1 in the gelding’s second start following an almost 3 ½-month respite.  Fields also won at 8-1 early in the meet with a horse off an almost six-month layoff.  Toots seemed to be stepping up in class to an open claimer after competing in combination conditioned company in his return, but the reality was that the race two-back was especially strong for the level as it featured a couple of classy, big dropdowns.

The last two Sundays I decided to don a little bit of a different wardrobe.  I recently was the recipient of a few very nice dress shirts and figured what better place to show them off then at work.  The only problem was they were all patterned shirts and I have always been a solid shirt kind of guy.  It was ok though – I have a good sense of style. 

So I showed up last Sunday in a very nice white and blue checkered shirt.  When I was given by patterned-shirt gift, I was told that – with very few exceptions – solid ties go with patterned shirts.  But I don’t have any solid ties.  I figure my nice beige, striped (not too striped) tie would work.  Before I could even open my mouth to ask a female co-worker what she thought, I was shot down.  Could my shirt/tie opinions be that off?  I’ll be honest, I was devastated.

So this past Tuesday I headed out to by some solid ties.  Decided to go with three – one blue, one red and one orange.  I like orange and planned to pair it with my new white and blue striped shirt.  I walked into the office and like a slap in the face my orange tie was shot down.  I was told orange and blue just were too different.  I guess the women in the office have never seen a Mets or Knicks jersey!  Before I could even sit at my desk, my confidence was shattered.  This was the second week in a row I had to borrow a tie from my boss!!

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Earlier this week, I was pretty confident that I knew who would win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  It was Blind Luck.  There are no male superstars this year as evidenced by Havre de Grace’s recent Grade 1 win in the Woodward at Saratoga, and Blind Luck seems to always finish ahead of the her. 

But this week’s announcement by trainer Jerry Hollendorfer that he has no intentions of running his powerhouse filly against the boys in the Classic just brought my whole world down.  Now what?  First they take Animal Kingdom away from me and now Blind Luck!  I have to host a handicapping seminar this Breeders’ Cup.  It would be nice for me to be able to speak intelligently on the year’s biggest race.

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Speaking of the Breeders’ Cup Seminar, reservations have started to come in for our new event on November 5 in the Turf Club.  It’s a $40 ticket and all in attendance receive Clubhouse admission, valet parking, official track program, lunch buffet, raffle prizes, and an exclusive Breeders’ Cup seminar and tip sheet from Brad Thomas.  I will also have some input on the seminar and tip sheet – isn’t that worth $40 right there?  Ok, don’t answer that.  For those interested, you can go to www.monmouthpark.com for more info or just email me at bskirka@njsea.com.

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Have to get the blog done a little early today so I can fully focus on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers home game against the Atlanta Falcons today.  This might be the most-anticipated Bucs game for me since the 2003 Super Bowl.  The Bucs have a brilliantly-bright future under the guidance of young coach Raheem Morris and 2^nd-year starting quarterback Josh Freeman.  In order to become an elite team, however, they need to start winning these types of games.

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I mentioned it in last week’s blog and on the in-house seminar this morning, but I feel it deserves another mention here.  Today is Tom Cassidy’s final day at Monmouth Park before moving out west to work for TVG.  I’ve had the pleasure of sitting next to Tom for two years and have gotten to see first hand what a talent he is.

The greatest quality someone can have in my opinion is the ability to turn the switch from fun-loving to hard-working in an instant.  Very few have this quality.  Some people are too fun-loving and therefore aren’t hard enough workers.  Other people are only hard-workers and go through life without having any fun.  Tom knows how and when to flip the switch.  He has his share of fun, but knows when to get serious and do some work.  And very few people work harder than he does.  Whether it’s watching replays or looking up pedigrees, Tommy loves what he does and is very good at it.  We’ll be watching Mr. Cassidy on TV for a very long time!

Best of luck buddy!

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings  

Sunday, September 18

Race 1 – Winning trainer Ed Plesa’s stock usually improves with experience, but jockey Elvis Trujillo rode that conditioner’s first-time starter, Dixie Doodle, with supreme confidence in this abbreviated, 5 ½-furlong, dash.  The filly settled off the pace, but was running smoothly and well within herself.  Trujillo didn’t panic when fellow debuter First Rounder cleared off into the turn and allowed his mount to creep up on her own before turning her loose for a strong stretch run.  There’s no reason why the open $10,000 basement maiden claiming victress can’t now compete in New Jersey-bred, late-season, first-level allowance contests.

Race 3 – Life can be so unfair!  Much-improved Nicky Red did all the dirty work here dueling with and putting away odds-on Crafty Concorde only to set things up for rallying Vision of Noah.  Nicky Red held for third, but even though he scored going a two-turn mile at Penn National last season, might currently be best suited going even shorter than this contest’s six panels.

Race 4 – 4^th-finishing Bubba Jones continued his improvement despite being hard-used in the first quarter for the third straight time.  His early tormentor was the even more improved (second off the bench and second time for trainer Collin Maragh) Our Nino, who did his dueling on a dullish inside path.

Race 6 – Runner-up, 70-1 firster, Who’dathunk is by Wised Up, a very underrated turf influence.  The filly prompted a slow pace in a tractable, professional manner, put away a more-seasoned foe, held off most – but not all – of the cavalry through the stretch, and still kept trying to the wire.  Such a performance in a debut going nine furlongs augurs well for Who’dathunk’s future success at higher levels – don’tcha’thunk?

Race 8 – Super try by 3^rd-finishing Octomon making two moves and dueling through blazing sprints.  She put away a very sharp speed rival and battled the perfect-trip closers till mid-stretch.  Capable of rating, Octomon only needs more patient reinsmanship to win at this level.

            Little Often Anni, the well set-up winner, made a perfectly-timed move (and an early one by her usual late, late closing standards) in her first start under jockey Paco Lopez.

Race 9 – New York shipper Rothko was too good for this field, but the facts that two of his three previous starts (both as a 3-year-old) came at 5 ½ furlongs and that he failed to change leads here combine to make him a potentially vulnerable underlay stepping up against winners going six panels or father.

Race 10 – Perfect trip victor Stormy Dixie seemed like she might be looking to hang while staying on the wrong lead near mid-stretch, but finally switched and kicked by the faltering leader.  Anybody who doubts jockey Chuck C. Lopez’s ability to sit still and wait on an off-the-pace runner need only consult the replay of this edition of the Politely Stakes and observe Lopez coolly keeping his filly relaxed and on idle till late on the second turn.

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In the 1790’s, a yellow fever epidemic hit Philadelphia where the government of the fledging United States was sitting.  Congressmen and Cabinet ministers conversed in the streets holding handkerchiefs to their faces as they mourned friends and relatives who had passed away.  The prevailing view was that bad air or “vapors” caused the disease.  In reality – as was discovered decades later – the actual culprit was the mosquito.

Fast forward to 2011.  There’s a deliberation in the stewards’ booth at a racetrack somewhere in simulcast land and the result is a questionable disqualification.  The common wisdom might place the blame solely on the judges, but there just might be an additional, and greater, root cause for the plague.  That culprit is the announcer.

I first realized this about 25 years ago when the era of commentating race callers was in its infancy.  One day, when things got tight in deep stretch, the announcer’s voice rose in pitch, volume and histrionics as he described something that could not have been fully deciphered from a side angle even if watched two dozen times – much less in a single viewing taking place in the heat of battle.

The whole world heard the call – and that was the problem.  Lights blinked with uncommon immediacy and a group of stewards who had been on a consistent, long-term pattern of only disqualifying for flagrant violations, subsequently took down a faux offender for an incident that, with truly level-headed and head-on review, turned out to be a mere phantom.

Being a racing judge was super tough in the old days when race callers only did names, positions and margins.  But now added pressure has been placed on them by announcers who blare out a possible scenario before the horses even cross the wire.

Amazingly, most of the commentators get things basically correct a high percentage of the time.  But sometimes they don’t.  And that’s not their fault.  They have a difficult job, too, and all they can do is call it as they see it in a bang-bang situation.  It’s up to the stewards to methodically, calmly, and coolly deliberate without being subject to preconceived notions or fears about public opinion being molded by a bold race call.  But they are human.  And after witnessing Announcer Induced Disqualifications (AID) for decades now, I have a solution.  Mandate that stewards watch races in a cone of silence with the sound off!

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Thomas Cassidy, my friend and colleague, will be leaving Monmouth Park after today for California and a job at TVG.  Tom has done outstanding work in recent years balancing program comments (an incredibly grinding and thankless task), selections, publicity department duties, and TV tasks – and he even managed to fit in graduating from college along the way!  Tom not only carried a heavy work load, but also accomplished his many jobs in outstanding fashion – and with class and grace under frequently great pressure.  Racing often does poorly at providing young talent with viable opportunities to develop and earn a reasonable living.  It’s fantastic to see such a high-quality person and high-potential rising superstar in the industry like Tom get a chance he deserves.  Good luck Tom!!

What makes handicapping so fascinating to some and so incomprehensibly confusing to others is that there are so many different paths you can take to arrive at the correct “destination.”

Take these examples…for example:

HANDICAPPING BY SIGHT: Because I was host of the daily race replay show down at Gulfstream this past winter, I had to try to at least keep an eye on the races as they went off each and every day.  One race in particular that caught my eye was a maiden special weight event on Feb. 12.  The winner, a 3-year-old named Rattlesnake Bridge, closed late to win by 1 ¼ lengths despite being extremely green throughout.  My immediate thoughts?  If this horse could win being that immature, how good will he be when he figures things out?  Well, next time out Rattlesnake Bridge finished second to Uncle Mo.  This summer, he won the Long Branch Stakes here at Monmouth.  And last out, he finished second in the Travers.  On Saturday, Rattlesnake Bridge is 5-1 on the morning line for the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby – and notice how Johnny Velazquez opts to ride him over likely favorite To Honor and Serve.

HANDICAPPING BY RUNNING LINES: Earlier this summer, I was handicapping Monmouth Park’s June 10 card when I noticed a horse running that day was exiting a race in which he finished 2 ½ lengths behind Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom.  Breathless Storm finished second on June 10 but has subsequently won back-to-back races including the Jersey Derby last out.  On Saturday, Breathless Storm is listed at 5-1 on the morning line for the Kent Stakes at Delaware Park.  Notice how Paco Lopez remains on board.

HANDICAPPING BY NAME: There’s a horse running in Race 1 at Monmouth on Sunday named Brian.  My name is Brian.  How could he lose?

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Saturday, September 17

Race 1 – New Jersey-bred Festival Day began with an old-school masterpiece of a job by trainer Ron Gibson and owner Let It Ride Racing Stable with victor Beacon Beach.  The gelding’s two 2010 wins came for claiming tags of $7,500, but his four previous 2011 starts all took place for prices of $15,000 or more.  Dropping here to the state-bred $5,000 ranks (he also scored on Festival Day last year), Beacon Beach was honed to a fine edge after knocking heads all season against far stronger and fired his best shot on the right afternoon.  Also credit jockey Felix Ortiz with a hustling ride after his mount broke much more tepidly than indicated in the official chart and needed some quick urging to gain his preferred, front-running position.  And what about erstwhile front-runner PJ’s Back who might have been able to battle Beacon Beach?  He broke well and on top, but, instead of pushing on with it and enhancing his advantage, was rated back in a claustrophobic, inside spot and gave up the chase on the turn at .90-1.

Race 2 – 41-1 runner-up Party Halo improved pace and final figurewise last out as a second-time starter, but leaped even farther forward here with the addition of lasix.

            4^th-finishing Miami Music, also progressing on the figs, has been the converse of Party Halo stylistically.  The sneakily distance-bred gelding has dropped farther off the pace with each of his career starts and here finished genuinely well.

            5^th-finishing firster Rockstar Life hesitated slightly at the start, hustled up, made multiple moves in traffic, gamely kept trying to the wire despite greenly not changing leads, and pulled up well.

            7^th-finishing Enoke Chiet broke slowly once again and again had some spotty run.  He can be competitive with a big drop and a move to a smoother-start facilitating outside draw.

Race 3 – Runner-up Artic Air’s chronic habit of not changing leads caught up with him here.  He looked home free for a moment near mid-stretch, but, depriving himself of a reinvigorating change of stride-thrust, had no late answers for a rapidly-developing Voodoo Charm.  The latter was superbly prepared for this state-bred stakes score by conditioner Gregg Sacco – note the quick turnaround for a foundation-building, second-off-a-layoff allowance score and the additional rest here for the third-time-form-cycle stakes try.

Race 4 – 5^th-finishing Maggiesothersister has gate and overall greenness issues, but she can run.  An outer-more post position, a little more distance, and stronger handling are all she needs to be a big-time price factor at this level.

Race 7 – The prime season for New Jersey-breds at Monmouth Park is relatively short and as a result the impetus is for connections to run their horses as frequently as possible to maximize restricted opportunities.  But sometimes it pays to wait.  Just ask Kenwood Racing LLC and trainer Stephen DiMauro, who rested Hermosillo after July 31 and then primed him with four sharp and improved five or six-furlong drills in preparation for this Charles Hesse, III score.

Race 8 – 5^th-finishing No Fret couldn’t keep up early in this very fast-paced match-up, but could be a front-end factor stretching out in a depleted, late-season field at this level.  The gelding finished well here and pulled up past the wire looking for more.  Still, it would have been nice if he had changed leads.

            7^th-finishing maiden claiming graduate Knockout Punch Kid dueled hard with a battle-hardened, super-sharp pace foe in favored Jersey Storm Cat (4^th) and actually held decently.  He can get lucky late in the year at this level in a less pacey situation.

Race 9 – The handy athleticism of Themanmythnlegend and corner-cutting mentality of jockey Angel Serpa served that duo well as they gained inside, ground-saving position before the first turn on key off-the-pace foe Courage To Be despite drawing outside that rival.  The paths less traveled were decisive in the 1 ¼-length margin between the first two finishers.

Race 10 – The trainer Doug Nunn Festival…erh, the NJ-Bred Festival Day continued with that conditioner taking two in a row, this one the Jersey Girl Handicap with the normally sprint-meant Karmageddon.  The underrated Nunn was his usual, down-to-earth, honest self in a post race interview.  He insightfully stated that his filly’s previous two-turn start came early in her form cycle last year when she lacked full foundation and was fresh and reluctant to relax.  Here, however, Karmageddon, was making her sixth start of the season.  The open stakes winner settled professionally and simply out-classed her competition through the lane.  Karmageddon’s dam, Kismet, is also the dam of Race 1 victor Beacon Beach.

Race 11 – A masterful job by trainer Lloyd Kromann with rested cut-back Y To Kat (12-1).  The filly broke her maiden sprinting in 2010, but, essentially out of non-claiming NJ-Bred conditions, found herself in a series of tough allowance and stakes spots this year.  Kromann had her sharp here dropping significantly while competing for the $15,000 claiming side of this optional race.  Y To Kat was racing for a tag for the first time in her life after having won the allowance side of this race type in October, 2010.  Her dam, Sweet Cali Cat, also produced Race 9 victor Themanmythnlegend.

I’ve been honored to be a part of the Winter Memories bandwagon for a long time now.  But what she did on Saturday was just completely insane. 

About two minutes after Winter Memories crossed the finish line, I sent a text message to my brother that included the word “beastly” on at least one occasion.

A lot of times you see a horse boxed in down the backstretch only to find a seem around the far turn and cruise to victory.  On Saturday, Winter Memories was boxed in on the backside, boxed in on the far turn, behind a wall of horses in the stretch and went from trailing to winning – against Grade 1 competition – in a couple hundreds yards.  Oh, and she was IN HAND at the end!!

Trying to be as professional as I possibly can, I would describe Winter Memories’ Garden City triumph as a “Holy &#%$” performance.  Definitely check out the replay on Youtube.

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Today was a fashion first for me.  It was the first time I had ever worn a patterned dress shirt.  And coincidentally, it was the first time I had ever worn an un-patterned tie.  I’m still not really sure how I feel about it. 

The shirt is a white and light-blue checkered Joseph Abboud and was a gift from one of my bosses this week.  The tie is a solid navy blue and was borrowed from my other boss.  As far as how the two became matched, it’s a long story.

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Last night, team Monmouth Park publicity and a member of team Monmouth Park Group Sales ventured north to Spotswood, NJ to celebrate the impending departure of Tom Cassidy to his new California TVG gig.

In just a couple of weeks, the young man whose race comments you’ve read for the most recent couple of years, will graduate to La-La Land (Los Angeles) and the TVG studios.  All of us at Monmouth obviously couldn’t be prouder of Tommy and for me it was an honor and privilege to sit next to him for a few in-house handicapping seminars.  Anyone who listens to Tom talk about a race can immediately tell that he’s a student of the game and I can tell you for sure that he’s one of the hardest working people I’ve seen when it comes to race replay watching, pedigrees, etc. 

Tom Cassidy will be a big-time name within the racing industry for a long, long time.

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It’s time for this week’s NFL update from, well, me.

Maybe not this year, maybe not even next year, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (my favorite football team) are a club to look out for.  They are the youngest team in the league, have a superb, second-year quarterback, and have a knack for fourth-quarter comebacks.  Today they came back from 17-0 at halftime to win on the road against Minnesota.  A few years of maturity and a few big-name acquisitions, and the Bucs will be back in the playoffs in a big way.

The team that made the Bucs look absolutely horrendous in Week 1, the Detroit Lions, continued their good-looking early season run today by putting up 48 against the Chiefs.  As it’s been said a million times on every TV and radio station, as long as Matthew Stafford stays healthy, the Lions are a team to be reckoned with…and then some.

I have to pick one team a week in my football pool.  My year-long strategy is not to pick good teams, but to pick against bad teams.  And I had to pick all my teams before the season started.  This year, my strategy was to pick against the Panthers a lot – thinking they would be not so good.  Therefore, I’ve had my eye on the Carolina franchise the first couple of weeks.  In terms of hoping they would be very bad, I do not like what I see.  Cam Newton is still – understandably – inexperienced, but he’s clearly got a load of talent.  And good news for Panther fans – bad news for me – his teammates believe in him.  The Panthers will not be that bad this year.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings  

Sunday, September 11

Race 1 – Say It With A Kiss was super in victory when dropped to the $5,000 level last time, but was well set up by race dynamics.  Her continued good drills and ample rest, however, indicated she was capable of repeating and the pace flow here cooperated.

Race 2 – Secret Getaway and Dubai Gold both were big dropdowns.  The former, a $572,000 career earner, was plunging from $25,000 claiming to $5,000 combination conditioned company, and the latter, a $484,000 winner, was descending from $15,000.  Who do you think won?  Well after all, size really can matter!

Race 3 – Well-bred and somewhat promising Call First battled on the lead in his two previous route tries, but was tested early here when three others rushed up and squeezed him out of the picture entering the backstretch.  The colt was forced to rate and attempt a rally.  He failed the test and finished last.  An outer-more post position (Call First scratched onto the rail here) and a softer pace scenario please!

Race 4 – Dominant Curious Luck was in early traffic and on a dull rail last time out versus similar, but bounced back here on the switch to jockey Elvis Trujillo.  Trainer Anthony Margotta is now six for his last eight when using that rider.

Race 5 – First-time starter Banded has a lot of leg and she put it to good use with a well set-up, rallying triumph.  The filly has some grass in her pedigree, but her powerful striding action suggests that dirt will be her best game.  Banded’s sustained run and strong pull up past the wire also indicate that two turns will be her ultimate future.

            Runner-up Suivez Moi is fast and game.  She’s also unlucky after engaging in cut-throat duels in both her starts that allowed off-the-pace horses to run her down late.

Race 6 – 4^th-finishing returnee, first-time for conditioner Michael Mullin Sinatra’srazedbrow had spotty but good run throughout and continued nicely past the finish.  Bred for two turns, he has considerable upside in New Jersey-bred company.  Watch for improved works and an eventual drop in class – unless route races for state-breds start to be run at the higher maiden levels. 

Race 7 – Victor Jamzdeanfnklsteen’s versatility and tactical foot allowed him to overcome his outside post position.  Conversely, Dax, Extraextraordinary, and Marshall were all compromised by their one-dimensionality.  The first two both endured traffic problems from off the pace – the former had subtle issues, the latter overt ones.  Marshall was rank in his new blinkers and squandered his steady run with unnecessary fits and bursts.  All three could use a drop and Marshall likely must – and I repeat must – get an even, slow-paced, prompting or setting the pace trip, preferably outside horses, to get his best result.  Watch for the blinkers to come off, but if they stay on, expect the gelding to be sent for everything he has.

Race 9 – 4^th-finishing Roman Tiger continued his cycle forward despite being hindered by pace and bias.

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    Strike me down with a wet, rolled-up simulcast program loaded with organic paddock sweepings if I ever call horse racing a sport, describe a Thoroughbred’s performance merely as “impressive”, or refer to a trainer of jockey by their first name.

Sports derive their revenue from ticket sales, television fees , and merchandise purchases.  Racing, however, is funded by betting dollars.  Ergo, in the 2011 context, it is not a sport, but a gambling game.  Well-meaning, sentimental, and/or politically correct thinking people who insist, still, on referring to racing as a sport do the industry a disservice by attempting to fit a square peg into a round hole.  They weaken any good thoughts they might have on the subject when they distort the thinking process with the original sin of mislabeling the topic.  And it’s even worse when they throw “sport” around in conversation with both complacent insiders and neophyte outsiders.

    That’s because words matter.  They set the tone for both public perception and internal policy thrusts.  Through the decades, countless dollars and great effort have been squandered trying to entice illusory fans to a phantom sport.  It’s time to call it and push it like it actually is and promote racing as a unique form of gambling to a subset of intelligent gamblers.

Impressive is a remarkably unimpressive word.  It provides no depth or context.  So-and-so is an “impressive” fellow.  Why?  Is he handsome?  Is he charismatic?  Is he smart?  Is he all, none, or one or two of those things?  The term is used as a crutch by folks too lame, lazy, stupid, and/or ineloquent to provide a fuller, deeper description.  Unfortunately, you read and hear it all too often in horse racing.  An “impressive” win.  But did the horse survive a speed duel, overcome traffic, or rally when hindered by a slow pace?  Was it all, none, or one or two of the above?  See what I mean?  Come on people, put some mind and effort into it!

    How many times do you read or hear in print or on TV a person refer to someone more famous than themselves by the first name?  Sometimes it’s an innocent display of inappropriate and unprofessional reference in forums that ideally should be strictly unbiased.  But on too many occasions, it’s a shameless, contrived, and totally affected device designed to make it seem like the writer or speaker is much closer to the prominent individual than he or she likely actually is.  I can’t stand it and whenever subjected to it instinctively question the reliability and bias of anything else that’s being communicated.  Such boot-licking is creeping its way more and more into racing media and hindering properly even-handed coverage.  Enough already.  True credibility is derived not from superficial, fleeting, and half-baked associations with celebrity, but from consistent, long-term, and high-quality performance.   

Grade 1 Garden City – Saturday, Belmont – I’ve been under the impression for a long time that #4 Winter Memories is one of the best turf fillies in the country.  I actually think – in a year with no superstars – she is one of the best horses in the country.  Therefore, she’s getting an absolute pass for her last-race debacle.  Because of race dynamics and course condition, she was never able to get into the race.  Basically, the race was run as if she wasn’t even in it.  I look for her to bounce back in a big way Saturday.  For a filly who’s been less than even money in her last four starts, 2-1 might be value if enough people jumped off the bandwagon after that disaster last time.

PTHA President’s Cup – Saturday, Parx – A few different ways you can go here.  Based on resume and running lines, #3 Smart Bid is the best horse in the race.  The problem is, he doesn’t win very often.  But is that because he’s been in against too tough?  #2 Citrus Kid is an intriguing one going back to this winter at Gulfstream.  I remember finding it interesting that following his allowance win on January 11, jockey Javier Castellano chose to ride Citrus Kid in the G2 Mac Diarmida taking off of eventual-winner Prince Will I Am.  Maybe I was, and still am, reading too much into it, but I remember being intrigued by that move.  #5 Violon Sacre is the defending champion and would be the top pick except we don’t know if he’s back to his 2010 form.  You’d just be going on faith with him.  #9 Bim Bam might be the now horse in terms of recency and on the cutback.  He did finish ahead of Gio Ponti three back.  A very tough race, but I’m leaning towards Citrus Kid at this very early stage.

Grade 2 Canadian – Sunday, Woodbine – The morning line isn’t out yet, so I very well may be about to gush over a 4-5 favorite (I doubt it though in a 14-horse field), but I really like #13 Zagora.  She has European experience, which should help over the Woodbine course, she defeated one of the year’s tougher filly and mare turf fields last out, and I just don’t think she is facing much in here.  There are no Euro imports and the others are either off form or take time beating each other.

Grade 1 Northern Dancer – Sunday, Woodbine – So he’s run six times in 2011 which makes this the seventh time I will give #8 Al Khali ONE MORE CHANCE.  He needs firm and he needs a big, sweeping turf course.  Well, on Sunday he’ll definitely get the latter.  I’ll have to check the weather.  Maybe he’s just off form this year (I think he’s been getting one bad set-up after the other), but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that arguably his best race and not-arguably his best Beyer Speed figure came at Woodbine last year.  Just give him some room to run in the stretch, please!

Grade 1 Woodbine Mile – Sunday, Woodbine – Like with Winter Memories earlier, I’m also on the record saying that #4 Courageous Cat is one of the best horses we have running in this country right now.  But will he win the Woodbine Mile?  No, really, does anybody know?  Will he?  I think he surely has a puncher’s chance at odds TBD.  If it’s not him, it looks like it might have to be one of the Euros.  But which one?  #9 Side Glance and #11 Dance and Dance (that rhymes, kind of) just finished a neck apart in Great Britian.  #2 Forte Dei Marmi (according to Google, Forte Dei Marmi is a sea-town in Italy for those of you wondering) cuts back to a mile from much, much longer distances.  That’s an interesting move for the potent combo of Roger Attfield and John Velazquez. 

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories  

Saturday, September 10

Race 1 – Winning trainer Ed Broome, in addition to being a top-flight, hands-on horseman, also is a master with a condition book.  Otomai last triumphed on March 3, 2011.  Broome brought her back off a layoff for an open $5,000 claimer on August 6, then waited 35 days to run her back here on September 10 – in the first available conditioned (weaker) $5,000 plater after she was eligible (by seven days) to run for the non-winners-of-a-race-in-six-months stipulation.

Race 3 – First-time dirt and two-turns second-timer Glinda the Good was a 6.80-1 overlay victor for conditioner Steve Asmussen.  Sired by the hugely-talented, first-year stallion Hard Spun, the filly showed athleticism to match her blend of foot and stamina.  I like what I’ve seen so far out of the Hard Spuns.  They’re both precocious and capable of going a distance – much like Dad.

Race 5 – 5^th-finishing, fourth-off-a-layoff, 30-1 fourth-time trainer Michael Mullin Nicky Red continued to show vastly-improved early foot (perhaps as a result of his consistently sharp works) despite breaking from the rail and stepping up two levels in class.  He also made two additional moves that were necessitated by some traffic issues.  This gelding subtly has been honed to a super-fine edge by a trainer who scored with a previously-overmatched dropdown at 44-1 in June.  Nicky Red will be extremely live dipping to the combination, conditioned $5,000 basement – and don’t be surprised if an apprentice shows up on board.

Race 7 – Trainer Mike Lerman might be a patient man, but his filly, Heroic Pursuit, likes to go-go-go.  She scored as a first-time starter and enjoys being on the lead.  Here, at 46-1, she was ready off a 175-day layoff and even got some useful experience sitting off a rival when last-finishing Bearly Enough charged off early on a pace-setting mission.  A framey, now fully mature 5-year-old, Heroic Pursuit still is lightly raced.  She has significant upside for a conditioner whose stock normally has more in the tank as a form cycle progresses.

Race 9 – Mongo Queen Stakes winner Golden Mystery had very good speed figures.  Her 34% trainer, Juan Carlos Guerrero, is 46% (from a large sample) with new acquisitions like this mare.  She was ridden by hot-riding, potential superstar Angel Serpa.  So how was she 5.60-1 in a six-horse field?

            3^rd-finishing, next-out-to-be-third-off-a-layoff Winning Image was unlucky to draw into a race containing one with as sharp a first gear as she.  Watch out when the filly finds a field she can clear!

Race 10 – Maiden victress Green Creek here proved that six sprints in less than three months can supply plenty of foundation for a successful stretch out.  Congrats to owner/breeder Mrs. Arthur J. Toman, who, along with her family, has been a major contributor, on many levels, to New Jersey racing for decades.  In my job, you’re not supposed to root for anybody.  But victories by nice and classy people still make you feel good. 

Obviously, we all have our different things we think about when we recall September 11.  For me – even though I was a junior in high school, I think I was a little young to truly take in what was happening – I like to think about some of the moments in the days, weeks and months following the attacks that made the hair stand up on your arms.

For me, there are two:

The first, I unfortunately didn’t find out about until well after it happened.  I was 16 years old on September 11, 2001 and was still a few years away from becoming a full-fledged racing fan.  Therefore I was not watching when Belmont Park held the Breeders’ Cup World Championships just months after the Twin Towers collapsed.  To this day, Tom Durkin’s stretch-call of that year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic remains a goosebump-producer.  Check out the call:

I’m really glad that I was watching the second memory live.  It was the first Mets game following 9-11 – a game in which Mike Piazza hit the most-dramatic home run I have ever seen.  In front of a full-house of New Yorkers, in front of Mary Giuliani, and in front of a nation watching the first major sporting event from the most famous city in the world after it had been attacked by terrorists, Mike Piazza delivered a go-ahead home run that literally shook Shea Stadium to the core.  It was so beyond-dramatic that you thought you were watching a movie.  It was just awesome. Take a look:

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings  

    The other day a very average, maybe, jockey was looming up on the outside into the stretch looking very much like he was the nuts.  Then he theatrically unfurled his whip and twirled it in elaborate ritual like an actor playing a Samurai swordsman flailing his way through a movie so bad it was in English, barely, and had no need for subtitles.  The horse, yes the rider was astride a horse, lost a touch of momentum due to the histrionics and lost the race by just a touch – a mere nose.

    I’ve absolutely hated stick twirling ever since that day at Belmont at least 25 years ago when a no-name, lucky-if-he-wins-five-times-a-year jockey working for trainer Allen Jerkens (known for his willingness to give opportunities to lesser lights) was on my lock of the 1980’s – at 6-1 or so.  Horse and rider were moving to the lead turning for home, with nothing behind them, when the tomato can chose to play with his whip to such self-indulgent excess that his mount, suddenly deprived of steering for one second too many, bolted to the outside fence.  The frazzled jockey lost his toy and the horse lost 10 lengths.  The latter gamely come on again – despite receiving little help from his now basket-case of a partner who was so empty of poise that it took him half the stretch to pull off a pair of goggles with which to eventually, lamely and weakly (hold the twirl!), flay away with half a heart and a fully vacant mind.  Somehow, the horse only lost by half a length.  I hadn’t played to place.

            As bad as the above jockeys performed, flip things around 180 degrees and that’s as good as Javier Castellano was on Stay Thirsty in the Travers.  He didn’t panic when his colt was in tight and in a tough spot early – neither pushing on too far nor checking out, waited for things to shake out (as they inevitably almost always do), was ready on the second turn when his one-paced steed, as usual, was out-quicked by the last-gasp spurts of the distance-limited and required what a less astute reinsman would have regarded as premature urging, and in mid-stretch allowed the colt to drift to the nearly golden rail as a helpful aid in fending off a final closer.  Castellano’s performance was a masterpiece of poise, brains, and horsemanship.

Monday, September 5

Race 2 – Trainer Joe Orseno’s robust turf-to-dirt numbers (20% winning ratio and $2.46 R.O.I.) so far exceed his overall dirt stats (13% and $1.36) that grass-to-sand runner-up PJ’s Back was super live despite the severe drop to the state-bred $5,000 basement and 43 days between starts following a seemingly promising turf debut at a five-times higher claiming price.

Race 3 – 5^th-finishing Bringbackthemagic sat in the comfortable turf cocoon known as the “pocket” when he broke his maiden in his debut last out.  Here, against much higher-quality winners, he saw daylight early and was slow to relax and settle behind a slow pace.  Still, the gelding finished gamely through the stretch while late switching to his proper right lead and otherwise racing greenly.  He could be ready to explode next time with any kind of pace and/or trip assistance.

Race 4 – A $2,050,000 2010 yearling purchase, Forward March was training with conditioner Shug McGaughey’s second string at Belmont during the course of the top-notch Saratoga meeting.  Was it because he just wasn’t ready to run or simply not that good?  Well, he was ready for his Monmouth debut, at least, as he broke slowly, rushed up boldly to the lead, and rode a live rail to a workmanlike victory.  I’m not putting him on my Triple Crown futures list.

            3^rd-finishing firster Standfire showed promise and Tim Hills, his conditioner, is live second-time out and knows what to do with a horse possessing plenty of grass on both sides of his pedigree.

Race 6 – Already this weekend, turf races had been won by a Penn National shipper, two horses who last raced at Presque Isle, and a Colonial interloper – the latter at 23-1.  Here, Penn National struck again – at 14-1 – as the Norman Pointer trainee Sweet Energy leapt forward with more than six weeks of rest following her victorious turf debut.  Pointer, a top all-around horsemen, used to compete on this circuit (He, in fact, won the 2000 Iselin with Rize) and always was underrated on the grass.  

Something new at Monmouth Park for 2011 – and still currently in the planning process – is the first-ever MP Breeders’ Cup Party & Handicapping Seminar.

Held in the luxurious, private Turf Club, this $40 event will feature a luncheon buffet, raffle prizes and a Breeders’ Cup seminar/Q&A (hosted by yours truly) with our own Brad Thomas. 

(Read that last sentence back and tell me if it couldn’t pass for one of those grand prize trip descriptions on Wheel of Fortune.)

Now, come on, that’s not a bad deal.  For $40 you get Clubhouse admission, official track program, an exclusive Breeders’ Cup seminar with one of the best in the business (Brad, not me), a Breeders’ Cup tip sheet, buffet lunch, raffle prizes, and more.  Plus you can watch and wager on the Breeders’ Cup from the comfort of Monmouth Park’s most-luxurious (there’s that word again) area. 

Let’s be honest.  A day in the Turf Club with food and prizes is worth $40 right there.  Not to mention the expert selections and analysis from Brad and…well, hey, you get to look at my pretty face.

We’re still ironing out some of the details for this event, but those of you who are interested should check back at www.monmouthpark.com in the next week our so for a form to reserve your spot.  Also, we haven’t finalized the menu yet for the lunch buffet, so any suggestions will be considered.  (I already requested the buffalo chicken salad.  Trust me, you’ll thank me later!)

Hopefully, I’ll see a bunch of Monmouth Park blog readers there!!  (Caution: No matter how bad you think my jokes are, there is no excuse for bringing a bag of rotten tomatoes and using them as projectiles during the seminar!)

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories  

Saturday, September 3

Race 8 – Being tactical from the one-post and then getting ultra-patient pocket handling were the genesis of Basic Trick’s 19-1 upset here.  Check out the replay and watch how jockey Carlos Marquez steals a quick glance to his right in mid-stretch, apparently checking for outside pressure and possible closing competition, before diving to daylight and the open space created by the end of the temporary rails.  The ride was a masterpiece of nerve-numbing patience and intricate understanding of unique local turf course dynamics.  And winning trainer Pat McBurney’s regimen for the grass-preferring mare wasn’t too shabby, either.  She was plenty fit for her 6^th start of 2011 – all in routes – and actually ran deceptively well in her last two on dirt.  After having her early-season races closely clustered, Basic Trick dropped back to claimers – at the approximate level of her last victory in September 2010 – and rested for 35 days in preparation for the score in the perfect placement on her favorite surface.

Race 9 – She Digs Me’s rating gear blended with his outside post to allow him to take advantage of an ideal pace set-up and trip.  He’s very vulnerable in the future to later developing rivals – especially going a furlong longer.

            4^th-finishing Managed Account broke awkwardly and then settled back under ultra-patient handling.  He finished well once asked in the stretch and pulled up strongly.  He has big upside with more rest and distance.

            Jersey-bred Deliburnsky was a super second-to-last-finisher out of 10 (Remember that stuff about nuance and subtlety?) as he battled with the even-money favorite tooth and nail through blazing fractions for more than five furlongs, faltered, but also took that rival down along with him, and only finished one-length behind his pace foe while remaining competitive to the wire with everybody other than the winner.  Deliburnsky can win an un-graded open stakes with the right set up.

Sunday, September 4

Race 1 – The rail began to play better late in the day on Saturday, and by this afternoon was quite lively.  Improving Te Atatu and new jockey Paco Lopez took full advantage with surprising, given the filly’s past running lines, alacrity from the starting gate.

Race 2 – 4^th-finishing Caylee’s Song might not be a natural two-turn horse, but surely he can do better in the future with a better post, less wide trip, and more advantageous pace scenario.

Race 4 – Once again, nobody – anywhere – plays the claiming game better than trainer Scott Volk.  Kingda Ka was his sixth winner of this meeting with a horse dropping more than 50% in selling price.  Once of the keys to such a level of success is knowing exactly when to plunge – it can be too counter-intuitive for many to accept such severe, immediate depreciation in perceived value and that’s why some squander whatever might be left by gradually lowering to each level and ultimately having nothing left for what should be the money run.  Most of Volk’s big droppers were short prices, but one was 4-1 and Kingda Ka here, with Paco Lopez, went off an amazing 7.40-1 as the fifth choice.

Race 5 – Perfect Footprint is simply a machine on the turf.  He is highly versatile, truly has multiple gears, and even after making a few small runs still can accelerate like a listed stakes horse.  Awesome job by Penn National-based conditioner David Geist.

            Watch for the blinkers to come off on deceptively-good fifth-finisher Audacity Of Hope.

Race 7 – Explosive Gilded Time winner Deputy Fling might be a little flighty (he’s a gelding), but his sustained burst of speed makes him a very likely candidate to become a national-level turf sprinter.

            4^th-finishing Dr. Disco is all about control and the softer-paced life in New York turf sprints.  His limitations west of the Hudson were exposed here, but returning to Belmont he’s a huge danger stretching back out to six furlongs and getting clear early.

Race 9 – 3^rd-finishing firster Tizfirst won’t win any acceleration contests, but her steady run and stout pedigree indicate that longer distances will be her friend.

            5^th-finisher Long Face, another debuter, ran superbly following her slow start.  She sustained a race-long run while losing serious ground and will improve big-time with the experience – whether she next performs on turf or dirt.

Race 11 – Runner-up Cherokee Lord, 4^th in the Grade 1 Secretariat last season, battled Grade 2 winning sprinter Sayif early, put that rival away, drifted out on the far turn, yielded in upper stretch to two perfect-trip closers, and then gamely continued on to pass one of the rallyers late and get back up for the place.  This distance of one mile might be Cherokee Lord’s ultimate best game, but he now has plenty of 2011 foundation and after two routes this season might be relaxed enough in the future to steal a stakes or two going longer – especially on a larger turf course with more forgiving bends.

A few months ago, I struggled mightily to come up with the best horse based in North America for one of the blogs.  But after watching the Woodward yesterday, I no longer have any doubts.

Blind Luck is the best horse in the country.  Barn none.  Hands down.  Period.

When Havre de Grace crossed the line in front of a Grade 1 field of boys yesterday, she just solidified – that going a mile and a quarter – the two best horses in the country are females.  And if history is any indication, Blind Luck is slightly ahead of Havre de Grace.

The only problem is that trainer Jerry Hollendorfer – who recently captured the 6,000^th race of his career – has previously indicated that he has no plans to run Blind Luck against the boys.

Please, Jerry.  PLEASE!!

If Blind Luck runs in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, she’ll be a single for me.  If she doesn’t take on the boys – in favor of winning the Ladies Classic in hand – that will leave me in complete shambles in terms of who to pick in the Classic.

On the other hand, if Blind Luck doesn’t run in the Classic, this may present an opportunity to hit 50-1 pay dirt.  There’s no getting around the fact that the 3-year-old and handicap divisions are wide open.  No wonder a different horse wins every Grade 1 race.

But I’ll stand by my opinion that the best horse should win our richest race come year’s end and that horse is Blind Luck.

Hopefully seeing Havre De Grace’s effort yesterday (and then looking at Blind Luck’s favorable record against that rival) trainer Hollendorfer takes a shot at the big bucks and the probable Horse of the Year honors that would result.

Please, Jerry.  PLEASE!!

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings  

Friday, August 26

Race 2 – So what if 9-1 winner Burning Calories saved ground much of the way in her last start?  She raced near the rail on a day when the outside was the place to be and her trip actually was much harder than those of rival animals who were three and four wide.  Perched in the preferred well-off-the-rail footing here, Burning Calories wore down a couple of harder-used rivals at an overlayed price.

Race 4 – Speaking of dull rails – one of the most underrated handicapping angles in a game that increasingly has become dominated by percentages and absolutes at the expense of nuance and subtley – 2-1 favorite Devilofanargument made a premature and much too aggressive middle move along one here.  She held surprisingly decently for third and could be dangerous in the future utilizing her newly-discovered versatility.

Race 6 – Subtley (Am I repeating myself here?) improved effort by first-time-against-winners, 5^th-finishing So We’re Friends, who put away two pace rivals while battling against the grain before succumbing to more seasoned closers.  He went off at 17-1 here and likely still would be a juicy price dropping to the basement.

Race 7 – Dropdown, 5^th-finishing returnee Strict Access ran huge against pace, bias and trip.  If she doesn’t run locally next out, she’ll probably appear at Laurel when that track opens in the fall.

Race 8 – Shrewd claim and spot by owner/trainer Guadalupe Preciado with winner Antenna – the only horse to score while inside-all-the-way in eight dirt races.  Preciado claimed him for $7,500 while coming off the bench last time in a sprint, recognized his potential for stretching out, and realized the gelding fit here jumping up three notches in class.

Race 9 – 5^th-finishing second choice Hollywood Left ran better here than his literal, hanging running line might indicate.  Off slowly, he rushed into a blazing pace (No fractions? No problem!  Just look at the past performances of the two dueling leaders for some indication of how fast they were going.), pushed ahead of the front-runners in mid-stretch, and only faltered in the last half furlong of the 5 ½-furlong race.  Hollywood Left is much better going an exact five turf panels and might also prefer a touch less time between starts than 55 days.

Saturday, September 3

Race 1 – This contest fell apart late and perhaps the stretch moves of 4^th-finishing More Veggies and 5^th-finishing Northwood Bully were not as good as they looked.  Still, the former woke up some first-time basement and has two turns in his pedigree (He just needs to find a route spot at this level!) and the latter responded to aggressive rating tactics applied by his new jockey.  Both geldings, especially Northward Bully, pulled up strongly – relatively speaking – after the wire.

            Lightly-raced, second-off-a-layoff, 3^rd-finishing Bubba Jones put away pace pressure from two decent quality rivals for the level before faltering late behind two closers with more foundation.

Race 3 – Versatile New Jersey-bred Bombast, a $12,500 claim on June 3, showed once more that he can win with just about any kind of trip.  Here, he and jockey Elvis Trujillo had to maneuver inside-out, but once they got wide position on the preferred footing they were able to wear down a game, hard-used, and bias-hindered King Henry.  Bombast was winning his fifth race in a row – this time against open NW1 company.

Race 5 – Winner My Dreamy Mimi deserves great credit for dueling hard with a stretching out sprinter who possessed good pace figures, dispatching that one with ease, and then drawing off to a dominant victory.  Still, her 7 ½-length win margin – given the crawl home after the three-quarters mark – is more a reflection on the rest of the field then it is on My Dreamy Mimi.

Race 6 – 6^th-finishing Livin Large moved wide and prematurely for the second consecutive start – this time going a sixteenth of a mile beyond his best distance – so the late fade is plenty acceptable.  He’s very dangerous at this level going one mile, drawing a better post, and getting nurturing – and hopefully pocket – handling.

Race 7 – Green, 6^th-finishing NJ-bred firster Black Ana Splash got the hang of things late.  She has sneaky turf on both sides of her pedigree.  

How did those folks who lived in the pre-electricity days have any confidence whatsoever that there were no bugs in their food?  I mean, the few nights I ate dinner in candlelight, I couldn’t see a thing.  I’m just hoping those crunchy things in my salad were actually croutons!!

While there were a lot of negatives during the Irene-caused outage, there may have been a very large positive that came out of this.  While trying to get rid of some spoiling food items on Tuesday, I may have just stumbled upon my moneymaker in life.  Twenty years from now, when I’m living in Key West, I could look back on Hurricane Irene as the storm that changed my life.  For dinner of Tuesday, we wanted to get rid of some vegetables along with a couple pieces of salmon.  Without a working oven, I couldn’t bake up my normal tater-tot accompaniment.  Instead, I went with another partially-defrosted starch that could be cooked in a pan.  WAFFLES!!  You heard it here first…salmon & waffles.  And yes, I put maple syrup on it!

*          *            *            *

This Sunday at Monmouth Park we run the Grade 3 Cliffhanger Stakes on the turf.  Originally this race was run at the Meadowlands and in 2005 was the setting of one of my favorite racing memories to date.

I was a sophomore in college and headed to the Big M that night to watch my favorite horse Hotstufanthensome.  The weather was HORRIBLE.  There was a major concern that the race would be taken off the turf due to all-day rain.  As it turned out, all races except the Cliff Hanger were moved to the main track. 

I spent the entire night inside and out of the rain, but ventured outside to see Hotstuf in the paddock.  As always, he looked fine.

I walked back inside to bet then decided to watch the race amongst the elements.  It was pouring, but there was enough room beneath the overhang to stay dry.  Before the horses headed onto the turf course, there was a delay.  The starting gate tractor was stuck in the mud/turf course.  The best visual I could give was that it was 2007 Breeders’ Cup-like conditions.

It took them about 10 minutes to rectify the situation.  Once the gates finally opened, the race was simply awesome.  Hotstuf sat mid-pack and began passing horses around the far turn.  He poked his head in front, he opened up two, then four, then eight.  At the wire, he was 14 ½ lengths in front.  I’m a little biased, but to this day that remains one of the most-impressive performances I have ever seen.

And it’s safe to say that the buffalo chicken sandwiches were on me that night!!

*          *            *            *

In addition to the great memories the Cliff Hanger brings back, this weekend is also special to my stomach.  The two-day BBQ festival is back.  That means the return of words like “pulled pork,” “brisket,” and “ribs”.  Me so hungry!!

I had much experience with Ben’s BBQ & Catering Company last year.  Yeah, they rock!!  No surprise they won People’s Choice Award.  Definitely stop by their set-up.  (Now, come on, that plug is worth at least a free pulled pork sandwich!!)

*          *            *            *

Back on the handicapping side of things, it’s another big Saturday of action up at Saratoga.  The card brings to mind these thoughts:

In Race 9, the Grade 1 Forego, how about #7 Aikenite?  He’s a horse I’ve never really cared for, but he got really good this spring.  It looks/sounds like he’s been pointed to this race all along, while #2 Sidney’s Candy, the expected shorter-priced Pletcher, was kind of a last-second addition to the field. 

In Race 10, the Grade 1 Woodward, I’ll take #7 Flat Out to beat the filly Havre de Grace.  Two back Flat Out ran a monstrous 113 Beyer and then backed it up with a very solid 106 in a race where he was a serious bounce candidate.  But hey, the last time a filly ran in the Woodward, we all know what happened!

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories  

Sunday, August 21

Race 1 – 3^rd-finishing firster Suivez Moi was inexplicably (given the way the dirt played Saturday and would prove to perform this afternoon as well) angled to the rail after out-breaking the rest of the field.  The filly, with an interesting blend of stamina and speed in her pedigree, showed fine foot on the dull inside and even spurted away from her well-bet, more-seasoned pace rival into the stretch before faltering late.  Suivez Moi has talent, heart, two moves, and likely multiple distance options.

            4^th-finishing Leonarda, a 2^nd-timer, was able to stay closer early off the drop and finished with a steady run.  She continues to look all about two turns.

Race 2 – A hugely-improved effort by 59-1, 5^th-off-a-layoff One Wild Bell.  She disputed quick fractions with the 9/5 second choice, put her away, and only yielded to the favorite and third choice.  Historically, this mare has been ready to win when she’s gotten her early speed back.

            5^th-finishing, 48-1 Gaelic Image, an uncoupled stablemate of One Wild Bell, also moved forward from well off the pace in her third start of 2011.  The latter is a route winner eligible for non-winners-of-a-race-in-six-months basement claimers.

Race 3 – Given the way the dirt was playing on Saturday and Sunday, it was especially hard to fathom why jockey Pablo Fragoso and never-before-in-his-life-near-the-lead-at-the-first-call Call Me Sweatheart were so intent on running a 22 3/5 first quarter (in a route), clearing the field, and then angling to the rail.  All things considered, the colt actually did well to hold third.

            4^th-finishing returnee Chicken Fried earned improved pace and final figures returning to dirt and first time for trainer Diane Alvarado.

Race 4 – Winning firster Colormesaichi rode the bias and flow to an 18-1 score.  How does a first-timer trained by Terri Pompay who has won with a handful of them in recent weeks between here and Saratoga, go off at 18-1?

            Runner-up debutante I Know You Know actually was best as the race was run rallying to the lead in deep stretch only to be nailed late after racing on or near the dull inside throughout.

            Or maybe not.  What about the performance of 22-1 firster Bronxgirl?  She disputed blistering fractions under intense pressure all the way while also competing against the double bias, put away two challenges, failed to change leads, and only faded to third while beaten a dirty length.  Now that’s a tale to be told!

Race 7 – 4^th-finishing Charmingmegan battled against a closers’ bias routing last time and here attempted to rally while racing inside against a powerful outside grain.

            6^th-finishing Sitora continued her improvement in her third start of 2011.  She stepped up in class, fought with and put away a quality rival for the level, and still was most competitive past the eighth pole.  She’s very dangerous dropping a notch or two below the combination $12,500 claiming tag she raced at two back.  

On Tuesday afternoon, I was playing golf at Fort Monmouth.  I played really, really well except I missed a ton of putts.  It wasn’t until I got home that I realized the reason – there was an earthquake!!  How was I supposed to roll a ball into a tiny hole with the ground shaking?  I’m putting a line through that poor putting effort.

In other natural disaster news, there’s a hurricane coming.  That ought to pretty much put a stop to fishing for a month or two.  Not to sound like Sam Champion – or my personal favorite Jim Cantore – now would be a good time to start getting prepared.  I know those of us in the Northeast get to experience a hurricane only once a lifetime, but this is nothing to take lightly – especially if you live right along the coast.  Water is a VERY powerful thing.  If you’re in a danger area, just pack up and leave – you don’t want to be one of those people seen on TV getting evacuated from a canoe into a Coast Guard helicopter.

And finally, this Saturday is Travers Day up at Saratoga.  How about a few thoughts:

In Race 8, the Grade 2 Ballston Spa, #4 Desert Sage will appreciate the quicker pace this event will likely have as compared to the :25, :50 fractions of her last event.  While there is no speedball, the combination of #2 Romacaca, #6 Trix in the City and #9 Tapitsfly should keep things at least semi-honest up front.  Desert Sage showed huge potential this winter at Gulfstream (probably the most impressive “unknown” horse of the meet for me) and has been training recently with last-out Grade 1 winner Stacelita.  She’ll be a beast to hold off in the stretch if the race flow suits her.

In Race 9, the Grade 3 Victory Ride (and the start of the $1 million guaranteed Pick 4), #5 Funny Sunny and #6 Hot Summer seem like the two most likely runners to take advantage of what appears on paper to be a race filled with speed.  The former prepped on turf last time following a freakish race back in February at Gulfstream, and the latter cuts back from route races and returns to her seemingly-preferred one-turn game.

In Race 10, the Grade 1 Ballerina, there are a number of ways to go, but I might try to take a stand with #3 Hilda’s Passion.  She’ll be a short price and is exiting just a dreadful effort, but I have grown to trust trainer Todd Pletcher in these situations.  It seems from past experiences that when a high-class Pletcher runner throws in a clunker but then returns in a similarly-high level (in this case Hilda’s Passion ran sixth in a G2 last out and returns in a G1), that the animal has sufficiently-rebounded from whatever caused the poor effort.  #6 Tar Heel Mom would love some moisture in the track, while I guess #7 Sassy Image is the most “in-form” animal – even though I’ve never been such a huge fan.

In Race 11, the Grade 1 King’s Bishop, #1 Flashpoint will likely have to…oh wait, Uncle Mo is in this race.  I kind of forgot about him all summer after he came down with that liver or intestinal or stomach whatever.  I know he was an absolute beast last year and there really aren’t any superstars anymore, but can Uncle Mo really win a Grade 1 race off a four-month layoff?  I guess he has to be used on Pick 4 tickets, but let’s try to find a winner elsewhere shall we?  As I was saying about Flashpoint, he’ll likely have to be quarter-horsed out of there to get to the lead from the rail, but he is a formidable pace foe to say the least.  He’s a sprinter all the way and has been pointing for this race for a long time.  There may not be anyone who can stay with this guy early, and he is absolutely the one to beat.  #2 Caleb’s Posse seems the most likely winner if the victor comes from off the pace, but isn’t he also a candidate to regress?  If Julien Leparoux could get #4 Dominus to relax early, he may be interesting.

In Race 12, the Grade 1 Travers (if you have any room left on your Pick 4 ticket), #10 Shackleford looks like a horse that should be able to control the pace with seemingly no other confirmed front-runners on paper.  The distance is a question with him though.  #7 Coil’s Haskell effort was extremely impressive.  Reportedly trainer Bob Baffert was “looking for reasons not to run” but Tuesday’s work impressed him enough to put Coil’s name in the entry box.  Two horses on the fringe of the morning line that I am interested in are #2 Rattlesnake Bridge and #4 Ruler on Ice.  The former has run nothing but good races given fast conditions, but has never run against these types and needs to step up big time.  The latter was coming on well in the Haskell, and will almost assuredly appreciate the added distance of the Travers. 

This is one extremely tough Pick 4 sequence.  I might as well start handicapping now to be ready by Saturday.  Good luck and stay safe in the hurricane.  Don’t forget to buy batteries. 

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories  

Saturday, August 20

Race 1 – Great work by jockey Elvis Trujillo getting stretching-out For Real Too to take back farther off the pace than she ever had been before going two turns.  The early conservation of energy was key to their victory over a surface playing favorably to outside closers.

            Third-finishing Moonlit River was hard-used making the lead and likely would have been best on a strip kinder to speed – or maybe even if she hadn’t drifted to a dull rail entering the stretch.

            Fourth-finishing (dh) Missterial was the best-finishing early pace horse by far and was near a very dull rail for the latter part of her journey.  She’s improved with age, blinkers, and for the rounding-into-form Francis McNeely barn.

Race 2 – Stretching-out, 6^th-finishing King Henry had super sprint pace figures coming into this race.  He was bumped at the start, but he still had good early position before Trujillo eased him off the early leaders.  The gelding has had difficulty passing horses in sprints, however, and his best shot here was using his speed to get a clear lead.  Deprived of that chance, King Henry ran deceptively decently, while near the rail, for the first 7 ½ furlongs.  Even a mile ultimately could prove too far for him, but he might deserve another chance going long with a commitment to an aggressive strategy.

Race 3 – Runner-up first-timer Mine Own ran far too good to lose.  She was green, on a dull rail most of the way, and lost almost two lengths steadying off traffic going into the second turn.  Mine Own has a pedigree geared to dramatic improvement with experience and maturity.

            4^th-finishing firster Southern Decadence was green pre-race and during the contest, made several moves, was late changing leads, and finished decently.

Race 6 – Trainer Russell Cash continued his sharp meet with blossoming third-time starting Jersey Blue Giant.  The gelding has a versatile pedigree from a distance and surface standpoint.

            6^th-finishing Gaelic Schemer, normally a front-runner, had a change of plan here and rated off the pace.  The scheme failed and it might be time to drop and send – a la victorious Knockout Punch Kid (one of his recent dueling rivals) on Friday.

Race 7 – For a second straight race going two turns on turf, a front-runner sent hard, went extremely fast early even by the standards of this freakishly quick grass course, and held on.

Race 9 – Speaking of freakish, Continental Mile victor Finale might just be the best 2-year-old turf horse I’ve ever seen.  Jockey Joe Bravo did a fine job getting the colt to sit behind horses early – if only for a short while.  Finale is very physically mature for his age, yet isn’t an especially big horse.  But when he’s in full stride, the length of his step and the chiseled nature of his physique make him seem huge.  If the lawn is firm at Churchill for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, the Euros will be running for second money!

Race 10 – Excellent training job by Nick Canani having developing talent Where’s Sterling ready to run a legit Grade 3 race going nine furlongs off an 82-day break.  The Philip H. Iselin winner is a true distance horse and potentially an even higher level competitor stretching out to 10 panels.

            Runner-up Southern Ridge finally ran to his potential – of course he finally got an outside, pace-pressing trip, too – but leaned in to the deep rail when looking to open up into the stretch.  Wonder if jockey Carlos Marquez regrets that first, and only, right-handed whip whack in upper lane?  It put the colt right on the wood and try as he might with his stick switched to his left hand, Marquez’s efforts to get back out to the better outside footing were futile.

Race 11 – 5^th-finishing Hello Handsome ran much better than it looks as the best finishing speed horse here by far.  He won a fast-paced, against-the-bias duel with three rivals while cutting back from two turns.

            Next time will be third off a 42-day layoff for 7^th-finishing Beacon Beach.  He cleared early in a blazing opening quarter before succumbing to much classier rivals.  The gelding has been overmatched in each of his four 2011 starts.  If he’s not ready now for a drop to state-bred or conditioned claimers under $10,000, he’ll never be.

Tizway’s triumph in the Grade 1 Whitney was powerful, but it was accomplished under ideal conditions.  His trip was perfect stalking soft fractions while sitting comfortably in the three-path groove that nearly was golden all Whitney week (until the surface got wet on August 7).  Before he’s awarded the Breeders’ Cup Classic by Acclamation (no, the latter has no shot in any Breeders’ Cup race), however, let’s consider that Tizway will have to successfully negotiate yet another furlong while dealing with much more substantial pace pressure and likely a more taxing overall trip.

Coil was tremendous winning the Resorts Casino Hotel Haskell Invitational (though he, too, was superbly set up), but he’s improved a lot in a short period of time and if he runs in the Travers, will be asked to continue to sustain a very closely-packed (by modern Thoroughbred standards) schedule.  While the ambition of the connections is admirable (and will be rewarded by me when evaluating year-end championships), the betting side of the issue – for me, at least – is a sure wager against him.

Stay Thirsty was much improved kicking on again in the stretch after being unable to keep up with the pacesetter momentarily on the second turn in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy.  Performance and pedigree-wise, the extra furlong of the Travers will help him and it also bears noting that his best form as both a juvenile and as a 3-year-old has come at Saratoga.

Friday, August 19

Race 1 – Elipidio is a half-brother of stakes-winning Dixie Two Thousand, one of the gamest horses I’ve seen on this circuit in recent years.  While not nearly as talented as his sibling, Elipidio showed comparable heart here by digging in and running down seemingly home-free pacesetter Wild Rover.  He has speed, but off this race it seems that Elipidio prefers a target.  The gelding has the upside to win another time or two before the year ends.

Race 2 – Brimstone And Fire drew a post well to the outside of Minute, but still managed to save every inch of ground on a suddenly live rail (track maintenance techniques less than two hours to first post and the running of the first race itself provided sufficient clues) while the latter was well wide on both turns.  How do you explain it?  Well firstly, Brimstone And Fire broke well and Minute left tepidly.  Gate skills count in any race regardless of distance and a good start tends to give a rider options.  Secondly, Brimstone And Fire was ridden by Paco Lopez, a jockey able AND willing to take any and every edge.

Race 3 – 3^rd-finishing firster Last Minute Rose showed good early foot and a willingness to keep grinding.  She’ll appreciate the steady beat of two-turn racing.

Race 6 – Jockey choices often provide stylistic clues for horseplayers looking to scope out pace scenarios.  Both Knockout Punch Kid and Chipped Tooth had been involved in all-out duels in their last few starts and both were listed with rider changes for this race.  The former originally had hyper-aggressive Chuckie Lopez named to ride (Lopez was out for the day and the almost as gate-busting Jeremy Rose wound up with the mount instead.), while the latter got the ultra-patient Carlos Marquez.  The intent behind the game of musical jockeys proved to be a legitimate tell as Knockout Punch Kid was sent on a clear-the-field-early-or-stop-trying mission while Chipped Tooth, despite breaking on top, was all the way back in 5^th-place at the quarter-mile call.  Speed duel?  What speed duel?

Race 8 – 5^th-finishing Roman Maiden was hung too wide while chasing too-fast fractions and competing at too high a level on the cutback and going turf to dirt.  She can be the controlling speed with a drop.

Race 9 – Sneakily turf-bred Pasta Lover relished the new surface, the soft pace scenario, and switch to jockey Paco Lopez.  This was a fairly tough field for its size and level, however, and that – combined with the gelding’s newly-discovered versatility – bodes well for Pasta Lover’s future potential on the lawn.

            3^rd-finishing Go Joe Go wants no farther than one mile.

Race 10 – 3^rd-finishing Come Sunday held decently late despite trying to middle move on monster winner D’Cats Meow.  She’ll be tough versus pure claimers (this was an optional race) next out when third start off a layoff.

Brian Skirka’s Sunday Somethings 

Don’t worry, I’m still around, I’m just a little busy with the crab cake fest.  I’ll be back next week. 

Race 3 – Slammin’ Slew only cost $12,500 as a yearling, so his starting here for $60,000 maiden claiming was a huge positive.  The long-striding colt was no gazelle from the gate, but he was well set-up by the aggressively sent Montbrooksoregal and a surface playing unkind to speed and favorably to outside sweepers.  Still, Slammin’ Slew’s rally (and its ease) was impressive.  He fits on the rise, but could need a race to adjust to markedly stronger competition and might find his true calling around two turns.  Slammin’ Slew was the fourth first-time-out score for trainer Pat McBurney this meeting – three of them in maiden claimers.

Race 5 – Last time out, Fagedaboudit Sal and jockey Joe Bravo didn’t want the early lead.  But no one else did, either.  So the two of them rushed up wide, cleared with a too-fast third quarter, and were vulnerable late to the rallies of two others.  Today, switching to Carlos Marquez (who is superb on the lead on the relatively few occasions that he sends his mounts), the veteran gelding went right to the top and galloped along in even fractions.  The fact that Fagedaboudit Sal was all out to last might mean that he should forgedaboud trying to stay nine furlongs in a race with serious pace.

Race 6 – 4^th-finishing, newly blinkered Shade of Alley was hugely improved over his debut.  He finished well, and like he had more to give, before pulling up as if he’s a colt who will thrive going longer – especially around two bends.

Race 8 – Firster Managed Account was sharp and strong in victory, but did benefit from perfect pace, trip and bias set ups.

            4^th-finishing firster Gold Policy brought only a $4,000 bid at a toney yearling action, but has a pedigree that’s an interesting combination of precocity, stamina, and surprising speed.  The colt was extremely green, but showed a couple of good bursts in spots.  And speaking of spots, he might have to work a bit to find the right one, but Gold Policy is an upsetter waiting to happen sometime down the road when he becomes more professional and the distances grow longer.

Race 10 – With so many of the speedy fillies in the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks throttled down here after their connections over-analyzed the expected aggressive pace scenario, Savvy Supreme was the only serious contender allowed to use even a modicum of the pacey style she knows best.  The Todd Pletcher trainee sat a perfect trip just off two hopeless longshots, inherited the lead into the lane and lasted late.

            4^th-finishing Strike The Moon was pace-stung and then middle-moved on a dull rail.

            5^th-finishing Canadian Mistress looked lost when rated behind horses early, but got the hang of it late and passed some tired rivals in a slow finishing split.

            7^th-finishing Marvel Gaye desires a return to a long single turn.

But while the sky is cloudy, we at least have a little brightness on the horizon in the shape of next weekend’s Shore Chef Crab Cake Cook-Off.  Here’s a little sampling (this is not everything, there is more) of the menu:

From A-maize-ing Roast  

Portobello Burger

Roasted Corn

Corn Dog

From American Hotel 

Crab-in-a-Bag – steamed ½ Alaskan Opilio Snow Crab with ½ corn on the cob, Andouille Sausage and Drawn Butter

Rock Shrimp Gazpacho Martini

From Bahr’s Landing 

Lobster Roll

Calamari

Crab & Seafood Chili

Soft Shell Crab Sandwich

From Carmine in the Kitchen 

Shrimp & Bacon Fritters

Fish & Chips

Brownie & Chocolate Chip Fritters

From Festival Island Noodles 

Wok-Fired Soba Noodles with 21 seasonal vegetables

From Fresh Fruit Cup 

Fruit Cup (I guess that makes sense)

From Greenlight Food Service 

Zeppole

Sausage & Peppers

From Ike’s Famous Crab Cakes 

Tuna Bites

Grouper

From Kona Ice 

Shaved Ice

From Lizzmonade 

Gourmet Fresh Lemonade

From Mud City Crab Cake Co. 

Crab Cake sandwich with bacon and avocado

From Southern Smoke Cajun & Caribbean BBQ 

Crab and salmon ceviche with chilies, cilantro and tomatillo w/chips

Creamy smoked clam dip w/chips

From The Happy Clam 

Po’ Boy

Coconut Shrimp

Ok, I’m hungry.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings  

Sunday, August 7 

Race 1 – Terrific job by trainer Pat McBurney having cutting back Holy Above sharp enough to make the lead going only 5 ½ furlongs.  McBurney, a 13% trainer from all starters, now is at almost 20%, from a good-sized sample, going two turns to one bend.  Note Holy Above’s August 1 half-mile workout.  It wasn’t super fast, but it was substantially quicker than any of her previous other drills at that distance.  McBurney hones the edges in subtle ways.

Race 4 – 5^th-finishing-firster Misspartypants has a lot of turf in her pedigree on both sides, but it’s distance-meant.  She finished well in this five-panel sprint and will be much more effective stretching out.  And you can bet on jockey Paco Lopez staying along for the ride.

Race 6 – Eden’s Exchange was 2^nd-time trainer Jason Servis, off a layoff, and on turf.  She went fast early to put away multiple pace challenges, accomplished that task readily with her ears pricked and her eyes searching out more competition, drew off in the stretch, and held sway like her next stop is a step up from the maiden claiming ranks into a NW1 allowance.

            5^th-finishing dropdown-to-maiden-claimers-for-the-first-time Exchanging Smiles moved into the quick fractions while wide at ground loss and also against a strong inside grain.  She held much better than all of the winner’s other early competition.

Race 8 – 5^th-finishing (113-1) Whiteside was outrun last time in a $40,000 maiden claimer (she did have some trouble and was in at the bottom level for 30k), but improved markedly here stepping back up to maiden specials and despite being compromised by pace, double bias and trip.  Her grinding finish suggests that Whiteside might want more distance and, being Pennsylvania-bred, watch out for her at Parx or Penn National.

Friday, August 12 

Race 1 – Beware!  Trainer Manuel Berrios’ stock traditionally improves into the Monmouth race meeting.  He won at 40-1 on July 30, placed at 24-1 on August 5, and scored here at 12-1 with Native Saint.

Race 2 – Trainer Juan Serey got Rehoboth to run his usual race last start when first time off the claim.  Unfortunately, $12,500 route claimers are extremely tough right now on this circuit.  However, the rich $20,000 purse for basement, $5,000 platers gave the shrewd Serey the leverage to take the plunge.  Rehoboth was a standout on the drop and can come right back for the same tag and barn.

            3^rd-finishing See U At The Top progressed nicely second off the bench while racing against the early, off-the-pace grain. 

Race 6 – If the $12,500 route local claimers are a strong, deep group for the level in New Jersey, then the $25,000 animals are in a major league of their own.  That said, 4^th-finishing, fourth-off-a-layoff Biohazzard ran deceptively well.  All he needs is a little drop.

Race 9 – For the second race in a row, 5^th-finishing Marshall wanted to go early in a contest in which no one else really desired the lead.  And once again, he wasn’t pushed on when things finally heated up on the backstretch.  A long-striding, rhythmic horse, Marshall has trouble re-accelerating when sent stop-and-start signals.  Claimed out of this event by trainer Tony Wilson, who’s not afraid to send his charges, it’ll be interesting to see if Marshall will stay the distance when truly asked early.

It’s Arlington Million Day this Saturday at, well, Arlington – a card that attracted a number of international contenders for the track’s trio of Grade 1 races.  For those playing the 50-cent all-stakes Pick 4 or the all-Grade 1 Pick 3, I would recommend using just about all of ones from overseas. 

Let’s start in the Secretariat.  #3 Treasure Beach is already a Group 1 winner and has the name Frankel in his running lines.  With all due respect, would any 3-year-old American turf horse win the Irish Derby and finish third behind Frankel?  Let’s all say it together now…

Moving on to the Beverly D.  #1 Stacelita was the favorite last out in her U.S. debut…in the United Nations…against the boys.  All she’s run against in the past is Dar Re Mi, Sea The Stars, Goldikova and Midday.  I’ve only barely heard of some of those.  #6 River Jetez has ONLY won a Group 2 in Dubai (against the boys), finished second in the $5 million Dubai Duty Free (against the boys), and finish second in the Group 1 Singapore Cup (you guessed it, against the boys).  No such testosterone in this race.

In the Arlington Million, #4 Zack Hall missed by 2 ½ lengths in a French Group 1 last out, #7 Cape Blanco is a multiple Group 1 winner overseas and dusted our best turf horse Gio Ponti last time, and #9 Wigmore Hall is a Group 2 winner across the pond.  I guess you can use America’s previously-mentioned one and only hope based on consistency, but has he ever beaten one of these Euro shippers in the past?

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Have you ever felt a certain way about something only to have something happen that makes you realize that how you actually feel is how you thought you felt times 20?  Confused?  Good.  I’ll just leave it at that then.

*          *            *            *

Another good turf race, the Grade 1 Sword Dancer will be held Saturday at Saratoga.  It’s an interesting event with a number of different ways to go as I look at it for the first time. 

#2 Grassy seems to have picked up his game this year and might be better-suited by a firm course and a return to an American-style lawn.

#3 Rahy’s Attorney can get brave if left alone on the lead.

#5 Boisterous continues to get better and finished behind two good ones last out.

Will the planets ever align to get #6 Al Khali back to the winner’s circle?  Does he deserve one last shot here?

#7 Teaks North will look to make it three weekends in a row that a Monmouth Park-based runner captures a Saratoga Grade 1.  (Hmm, I thought I read about that in this morning’s barn notes.  Man, those were well written.)

#8 Winchester makes a lot of sense too. 

What are the odds of a six-way dead heat? 

*          *            *            *

To celebrate some sort of bump in my financial statement discussed last week on the blog, I treated my grandparents to a lovely dinner at Pete’s Fishery in Matawan/Aberdeen on Sunday.

What resulted was literally one of the top three greatest things I’ve ever eaten.  It was chorizo and shrimp mixed with rice, beans and some veggies, served with homemade tortilla strips.  While exiting the restaurant, I literally could have done a five-minute segment for that show “The Best Thing I Ever Ate” on the Food Network.  It rocked.

The dish was on the specials page, so I don’t know if it was a once a month kind of thing or it’s available every night.  If the latter is the case, I would suggest everyone reading this go there…yeah, tonight!!  Just make sure you get there after I do so I can get a table!

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Continuing on the food theme, I’ve long searched for the right buffalo wing sauce.  I’m not confident enough to make my own and each time I try to buy one it never works out.  This weekend, however, I was waiting for a sandwich in the Monmouth Park Sports Bar when the chef pulled out a tub of wing sauce to make a buffalo chicken salad.  (By the way, this salad would probably be #8 on the list of best things I’ve ever eaten.)  While “watching” the second race on a TV, I may have glanced over to check out the tub’s label.  Frank’s Hot Wing Sauce.  Cha-ching.

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367 miles down, another 250+ to go.  That’s the tally for Monmouth Park marketing manager Sophia Mangalee in the Mongol Derby.  I’m sure her caboose is just a little sore right about now.  Yeah, that’s inappropriate.  On a more positive note, I can now type www.mongolderby.com with my eyes closed!

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories  

Friday, August 5

Race 1 – Trainer Joe Pierce’s barn clearly is rounding to form.  Gentle Journey finished first on July 29 at 33-1, only to be disqualified, and Say It With A Kiss scored here at 7-1.  Both horses had worked especially sharply for low-level claimers and were coming off respites of 40 days.  The latter was dropping to a career low and stretching out – a classic, old-school move employed by the 80-something Pierce.

Race 2 – 6^th-finishing Miss Bar A resented rating in her second turf start following a very promising lawn debut.  Respect her when she finds a field devoid of both speed and an alpha dropdown like 3/5 victor Holmedancer.

Race 5 – 4^th-finishing Atlantic Venture ran better than it looks hustling into fast fractions while sticking to a very dull rail for virtually every step.  He still has another claiming-class card to drop.

Race 6 – Second-timer Jersey Blue Giant improved big-time with a better break disputing rapid fractions and winning that duel before succumbing to three closers.  He can beat any rival he faced here next time with even a slightly better pace set-up and/or dirt bias.  Incidentally, I don’t know if this horse’s name is based on this historical nugget, but the Jersey Blues were this state’s first military unit.  They served in the French and Indian War during colonial times (the 1750’s) and were among the troops captured and brutalized at Fort William Henry (in upstate-NY) in the battle featured in James Fenimore Cooper’s classic novel (and two 20^th century films based on it) Last of the Mohicans.

Race 8 – Returnee, 2^nd-time starter, 3^rd-finishing Dreaming of Les showed much-improved speed and fine heart battling on a deep rail against a primed winner who possessed more recency.

Race 9 – 3^rd-finishing Outstanding Hope rated a bit and managed a second run after hitting some turn traffic.  He could be ready for a leap forward when coming off a longer turnaround.

Race 11 – 3^rd finishing Introvert sent too hard, went too fast, and eased too close to the rail on a day when off-the-pace and wide were the sole routes to victory in two turn contests.  The only two to beat her were allowance drop downs in what was an especially strong combination conditioned claimer.  Watch for the also rans on the drop!

Saturday, August 6

Race 2 – Returnee Otomai (6^th) possibly needed this race dropping to a likely career low, but did she really have to attack so prematurely into such a fast pace?  And yes, she was done in upper stretch, but it would have been nice to see a bit more vigorous and urgent handling from there until deep lane in what was a superfecta contest.

Race 3 – Strongly grass-bred firster Bringbackthemagic handled himself professionally early and like a dervishly-finishing, turf-meant fiend in the final yards.  And speaking of magic, program handicapper Thomas Cassidy certainly had it this day.  Cassidy picked the first three grass winners on the card – here at 7-1 and later on at 8-1 and 9-1!

Race 7 – Jockey Channing Hill waited, and waited, and then waited some more when he and Outstanding Henny were bottled up in the stretch traffic.  Lucky for them, dueler Go Go Pink was unable to stay with pace rival Dream With Us in deep stretch and a hole opened up for Hill and Henny.

Race 8 – 3^rd finishing Le Mi Geaux was stretching out off a 56-day break while exiting a stakes race out of which the four other entrants all subsequently finished in the exacta in their next starts – three of them in stakes.  The Steve Asmussen trainee was wide-trip and pace-compromised here, but is a seven furlong filly at a track that can’t run that distance.  What do you do?  I’d take a shot that a cut back to six panels would provide more race flow.

Race 10 – Joe Hollywood here beat stablemate Chipshot (winner of the Race 5 Select Stakes) on the clock every which way possible – pace call, final time, and finishing furlong.  He put away some decent quality speed and drew off with something apparently in reserve.  The only horse ever to beat Joe Hollywood on dirt was the since injured Archarcharch, the Arkansas Derby victor who might have been at least as good as any other 3-year-old in the country.  The Breeders’ Cup Sprint is in California in 2012, isn’t it?

            New Jersey-bred returnee Cadence King held his own with everybody else here for crafty conditioner Tony Margotta.  The gelding has a first-level state-bred condition and distance versatility with which to work.

Race 11 – Second-time blinkers Ju Jitsu Jax was a huge beneficiary of the program scratch of potential dominant speed Caffe D’oro.  The Howard Wolfendale trainee moved forward last time despite being unusually far back early in a race featuring an intense pace scenario.  Today, however, he was the one loose, free, and in control.

            Runner-up Wicked Tune again demonstrated his wicked turn of foot, but was competing against a much tougher group – one filled with veteran turf-sprint stakes horses possessing almost comparable brushes.  In addition, his late darting to the rail put the colt in an uncomfortable and unfamiliar position inside a line of rivals.  Next time, Wicked Tune will be more seasoned and ready to take the term explosion to a new level – especially if he gets even the slightest bit of pace help.

But isn’t that what makes horse racing so great? 

You can take an absolutely horrible beat one race, and 25 minutes later have the chance to make it all back and then some.  You can pick 12 losers one day – and have cool ranch Doritos for dinner at a gas station – and 24 hours later pick 12 winners – and spend the night at a fancy restaurant.

Case and point my gambling experiences of Friday and Saturday…

I try to place at least one wager on Monmouth Park’s Friday races since I handicap them all in preparation for the in-house seminar.  I figure if I do the work I might as well try to make some money off of it.

So on Friday, I made the decision to play the late Pick 4.  I wasn’t looking for anything too crazy – maybe just a $5-$8 play to keep myself interested.

Race 9 was a single – I didn’t think Christiesborntorun could lose.

Race 12 was a single – I didn’t think Jersey Jazz could lose.

The question became the middle to legs.  With my singles expected to be very short prices, I didn’t want to spread in both interior legs due to the possibility of losing money on a winning ticket.  I made the decision to single one of my picks and use ALL in the other leg.

My top picks were Trini Dubai in Race 10 and Banner Elk Lady in Race 11. 

I decided to single the former and use all in the latter race.

Of course, a 20-1 shot won Race 10 and Banner Elk Lady won Race 11.  Coinciding with a pair of winning singles, I wrong-decisioned myself out of $360.

Moving onto Saturday, I was yet again eyeing the late Pick 4 – this time at Saratoga.

I put together three tickets, all singling short-priced winner Turbulent Descent in the Test and using Tizway in the Whitney. 

In the first leg, I used the 5/10 on two tickets and five horses on another.  When Trix in the City won Race 8 at 24-1, two of my three tickets went in the garbage, but the remaining ticket was alive for big bucks.

The single won.  Tizway won.  I was alive to two horses in the last.

My top pick in the last scratched in the paddock.  Awesome.  I got the betting favorite instead.  That was no help, as he did very little running.

My other horse, #6 Bound by Humor raced on the lead, was passed by a 50-1 shot on the far turn, fought back to regain the lead and get his nose on the wire despite some apparent bumping.

The inquiry sign went up immediately.

The head-on was not flattering to my chances.  To add to the hardships, the horse who unofficially finished second was given me to earlier in the day by my boss as a horse that was a “must-use.”

So I waited.  And waited.  And waited.  They showed the head-on again – and again I thought I was coming down.  Then they stopped showing the head-on and I just had to wait.

After about eight minutes, the results were amazingly declared official. 

Phew.  What a game!

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings  

Friday, July 29

This card featured one of the dullest rails of the 2011 season.  Horses who ran decently while compromised by their position include:

Race 2 – Zoran

Race 3 – Idle Dice

Race 5 – Triple A. Rating

Race 9 – Sweet N Nutty

Race 11 – Ling Ling Qi

Race 12 – Green Creek

Among those who get extra credit for being pace-involved while inside are:

Race 1 – Forest Goddess

Race 5 – Mo Slow

Race 7 – Private Rules

Race 9 – Silent Spin

Race 12 – Deluna

Conversely, on the turf course, with the temporary rails at 36 feet, wide-movers seemed to be hindered beyond the obvious effects of ground loss.  Those horses include:

Race 4 – Peaches; Shiloh’s Vine

Race 6 – Cherry Wildcat

Race 8 – Lucky Zip; Dreamy Moment

Race 10 – Knockinelder; Forever Grateful

Saturday, July 30

Race 2 – 5^th-finishing Wild Doone worked sharply before his drop to the basement here, but had traffic issues early and in mid-race.  Still, he gained good conditioning in his second start of the year and can improve with an outside draw.

Race 3 – Tappintovictory acted up before the start and then dueled tag-team pressure against the profound, two-turn grain and finished a deceptively good fourth.

Race 4 – Great job by jockey Felix Ortiz on 10-1 Back Pocket Money, who has a long-held dislike of the rail and was an inside-drawn speedster on a day when the outside paths were much preferred.  Ortiz broke as well as is equinely possible from his innermost position and immediately seized a leading perch, before others could exert outside pressure, well off the fence.

Race 5 – Her pedigree, sale at a 2-year-old auction based on synthetic going, and framey size indicate that slow-breaking, tough-trip, 5^th-finishing firster Signal Ready might find her future is on turf.

Race 6 – 8-1 overlay Tiger Cat Lilly demonstrated how dangerous lightly-raced, well-bred horses can be in the hands of nurturing trainers like Mike Pino.  The filly had much more room to improve than her more heavily-bet, key rivals.

Race 8 – Last-of-four Why Tonto stayed around as long as he could on a dull rail and a surface he dislikes. Note how he regressed last time he ran as well as he did two-back when he returned too quickly from that good effort.  Trainer Terri Pompay gave him much more rest for this, only to be rewarded by the race coming off the grass.  Watch out on turf next time!

Race 9 – 4^th-finishing Thedamageisdone made her usual game run stretching out second off the bench and 5^th-finishing Billsingssinatra continued her subtle improvement being hard-used, pace-stung and on a dull rail virtually thoughout.

Race 12 – Yeah, I know the outside was the best place to be, but 4^th-finishing Whynotmoo took it a couple degrees – make that paths – too far into the stretch and actually continued well considering his race was lost by the time he straightened out.

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Who in the modern horse racing game is better than Bob Baffert?  Don’t even try to come up with an answer other than: “Nobody”.

He gets good stock, but there are a few other trainers who get more expensive and/or better bred animals with which to work.  Baffert’s horses are good early in their careers and then they get better.  They race and train most of the year on synthetic, but when they try dirt, usually for big money, they invariably fire sharply.  And they last longer than most of the other guys’ best horses, too.  Baffert plays the California surfer dude for the media, but the reality is he’s a cool, calculating genius.

Resorts Casino Hotel Haskell Invitational winner Coil deserves great credit for beating such high-class competition in his dirt debut while also experimenting with a brand-new closing style.  The colt surely has the mental and physical scope to continue to improve, but he was well set-up by pace scenario and outside bias on the day.

Runner-up Shackleford stretched his speed an extra half-furlong on Preakness Day, but nine panels is his limit on most afternoons.  Getting no help from the Monmouth surface, he was vulnerable late off a 50-day break.  Still, if I was voting today for 3-year-old champion, my choice would be Shackleford.  Not only has he won a classic, but he’s raced hard and held his form in top-class company all season long.  The racing industry desperately needs to reward horses able and willing to compete often and must begin to consciously downgrade those who, for whatever the reasons, keep sparse schedules.  Durability, after all, tends to breed durability.  Let’s encourage that!

Besides Coil, my choices for top players on Resorts Casino Hotel Haskell Invitational Day are colleagues Brian Skirka and Mike Curci.

Skirka donned his t-shirt and shorts for early morning activity coordinating a multitude of things for a marketing department a person short.  Later, dressed to the nines, he hustled hard to complete a full slate of publicity office duties.  He does at least two full jobs every single day of the season and accomplishes them with an understated intelligence and class that belies his modest years.  In terms of bang for the buck, I’ll bet on Skirka as the top racetrack employee in the country.

Curci was his usual adroit and polished self as he shifted seamlessly between his various television and seminar tasks.  He set the scene at the top of the day with efficient yet elegant profiles of all the Haskell entrants, schmoozed informally with enthusiastic horseplayers at Curci’s Corner, flawlessly interviewed a broad spectrum of people – some of whom were not the most willing or proficient subjects, and suavely disseminated live handicapping information throughout the day culminating in a $35 winner and cold $250 exacta.  Mike Curci can do it all, he can do it incredibly well, and he does it, seemingly, without breaking a sweat.

Anyway, leading up to the Haskell this year, all the talk was about who will break through as the leader of the 3-year-old division.  With Animal Kingdom out, it was Preakness winner Shackleford against Belmont winner Ruler On Ice. 

But with the Haskell now in the books, I think it’s safe to say a new contender has emerged. 

The night before the Haskell, I made the decision that Coil was going to be my selection.  While watching replays of some of the contenders on the Haskell undercard, I figured I might as well watch Coil’s lifetime races.  I liked what I saw.  He was always right up on the pace and would likely sit a nice trip right off Shackleford.

As someone who picked Coil and had his eyes on him from the bell, my heart pretty much sunk 100 yards out of the gate.  After he broke last, I literally thought something was wrong and he was going to trail the field all the way around.  Maybe it was taking the blinkers off.  Maybe it was the conventional dirt.  Maybe it was the cross-country trip.

There was no way he was winning from there.

Turns out I was wrong and right at the same time.  There WAS a way he was winning from there.  I knew all along.  I picked him, remember?

And now it’s on to the Travers – the next race to determine the leader of the 3-year-old division.  It’s lining up to be Haskell winner Coil vs. Preakness winner Shackleford vs. Belmont winner Ruler on Ice vs. Jim Dandy winner Stay Thirsty.  The way this year is going, none of them will win (can you say Rattlesnake Bridge?), but I have to think with an effort akin to his Haskell triumph, Coil is strictly the one to beat.

*          *            *            *

Up to this point, the race of the year for older horses was probably the $1 million Charles Town Classic back in April.  That may change, however, this Saturday when the gates open for the Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga.

Everything is relatively speaking this year with no Blame, Quality Road or Zenyatta, but what a field we have signed on for this one!

There are a number of ways you can go in this one but how about an exacta box of #3 Morning Line and #5 Tizway.  The former has been pointed to this race for months and should really move forward coming out of the Salvator Mile.  And we might be able to get a decent price on the latter (considering he won the Met Mile last out) since he’s unproven at the distance.  Reportedly, his trainer says he’s doing better than ever and he’s not concerned about 1 1/8 miles.

Should be a fun race!

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories  

Monday, July 25

Race 1 – The 3^rd race on June 11 featured what might have been the fastest early pace – adjusted to track condition and quality of horse – for the entire season in Monmouth dirt sprints.  The winner of the duel (and 3^rd-finisher) Mystical Rhythms dropped $5,000 in price and won a $35,000 maiden claimer at Belmont on July 17.  The horse who sat closest to the embattled duelists, Hurricane Barb, came back to score decisively here for a $20,000 maiden claiming tag.  I guess all this means Shipwreck Cove, who fought with Mystical Rhythms and was beaten three lengths by that one while finishing 12 ½ lengths in front of tough trip Hurricane Barb, should fit nicely for a maiden claiming price of around $25,000 to $30,000.

Race 2 – No one but no one understands the claiming game like trainer Scott Volk.  When a horse no longer is in peak form, he knows EXACTLY where to spot that individual.  And there’s no draining, steady series of drops to get to the basement level, either.  When it’s time to plunge, Volk goes straight to the bottom for the easiest possible placement.  Witness his handling here of victor East To West.  The gelding bled and was distanced last time.  Volk gave him 33 days, an improved workout, and then sent him to the lowest local level here for his third race off a layoff try when, if East To West had a winning effort left in the tank, he’d be best timed form cycle-wise to deliver it.

Race 4 – Highly-regarded Japanese jockey Hiroki Goto won his first Monmouth Park race onboard Sammzilla and looked like the real deal.  He’s smooth, skilled, strong, controlled, energetic, and athletic.  The key to victory here was Goto getting his cutting back mount in play early in a fast-paced sprint.  That mission was accomplished impressively.

Race 7 – On Sunday, Deliguska, owned by Happy Tenth Stable and trained by Tony Wilson, upset an essentially non-winners of one New Jersey-bred allowance for fillies and mares at 31-1.  Monday, for the same connections, her half-brother, Deliburnsky, buried state-bred 2-year-old maidens at odds of 3-5.  Both horses were purchased, one year apart, at the same Florida 2-year-old in training sale with the filly costing $65,000 and the gelding $70,000.  Deliburnsky here was a man among boys towering over his badly-overmatched and overpowered rivals.  He’s so mature relative to other juveniles at this point in the season, he’d probably have a real shot in a small, open stakes race.  The $45.00 exacta was completed by 23-1 Noon Time Shots – the top two were the only two entrants dropping down from unrestricted maiden specials.

Race 8 – The low-profile Paul Matties barn scored here with My Man Marty off a 9 1/2 –month layoff.  Earlier this meet it finished second at 13-1 off a 72-day break.

Race 9 – A near-perfect ride by Paco Lopez on board winner Exclusive Strike.  He saved as much ground as possible, and waited as long as possible, before making his own room when things got tight in mid-stretch.  Lopez likes to straddle the tightrope and he stayed upright – this time.

            3^rd-finishing Fagedaboudit Sal moved aggressively on the backstretch when none of the other serious contenders wanted the lead.  He weakened a bit late, but might have reminded his connections about how many races he’s won on the front end during his career.

A promotion for those of you on-site Haskell Day: the Breeders’ Cup Classic Ownership Challenge.  Simply come to Haskell Day, fill out an entry form (it’s all free, no gimmicks), and drop it off at the Breeders’ Cup tent (located next to the Haskell hat redemption area north of the Grandstand).  By doing so, you will become a “virtual owner” of the horse that wins this year’s Haskell – a Win & You’re In race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  Should the Haskell winner go on to capture the BC Classic, you and whoever else signed up Haskell Day will share $250,000.  That’s pretty cool!!

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Lots of good races from around the country this weekend and already this week.  It may, however, be hard-pressing for a horse to be more impressive than Winter Memories was in Wednesday’s Grade 2 Lake George.  She was under a hammerlock all the way around, checked off heels on the far turn (while still super-restrained), then looped the field and won as easy as possible under a hand ride.  Can you say beast?

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A look ahead to Saturday’s card at Saratoga reveals the Grade 1 Diana on the turf for older fillies and mares.  Maybe it’s just me, but doesn’t every horse’s PP’s in this race look very similar?  Some of the horse’s names even sound/look alike – Zagora, Aruna, Aviate.  Ok, maybe it’s just my brain acting up after a long week.  Anyway, not that I play superfectas, but a horse that would be a must-use for me in such bets would be #2 Justaroundmidnight.  L-O-V-E LOVE the fact that Joe Bravo goes up to ride.  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that all three of Ms. Midnight’s wins – including a G3 score at 26-1 – have come with Bravo in the irons.

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One of my favorite parts of Haskell Day is always seeing the nation’s best 3-year-olds in the paddock.  Seeing Rachel Alexandra was great.  Seeing Rock Hard Ten nearly bump his head on the roof of the saddling area was awesome.  This year, I’m really looking forward to it.  Preakness winner Shackleford could pass for a Roman warhorse.  At today’s press conference, Astrology was described as “regal-looking.”  And trainer Bob Baffert says Coil is a looker as well.  Should be an attractive walking ring.  (PS – I’ll make sure I place myself prominently to even things out a little.)

*          *            *            *

We’re three days out, and I’m giving it my first glance now, but don’t we have to do a little Haskell Day handicapping?  Here goes:

In Race 4, #3 Kippers n’ Eggs gets back on turf and gets a big rider switch to Jose Valdivia, Jr.  Watch out!

In Race 5, the Regret Stakes, #8 Bronx City Girl gets the service of Luis Saez, who ships up from Calder to ride for trainer Marty Wolfson.  If memory serves, he had significant trouble coming out of the gate last time.  #3 Hour Glass has the best company lines in the field.

In Race 6, the Jersey Derby, really, really, really like #2 Breathless Storm.  He was a complete powerhouse last out and who was that horse that finished second in his race three back?  Animal who?  In a race that appears to have a lot of early speed, he – along with #7 Rustler Hustler and #8 Beachcombing – seems likely to benefit.

In Race 7, the Majestic Light, #5 Motovato is back and I’m back on him.  He had some traffic trouble of his own last out in the Salvator Mile and will be ridden by Luis Saez – aboard for his most-recent stakes win.

In Race 8, the Lady’s Secret, #10 Quiet Giant finished behind who last time?  Blind who?

The pace looks like it will be a fast one in Race 9, the Oceanport.  #11 Straight Story is posted perfectly to sit and pounce on the expected front runners.  #7 Violon Sacre may be the most talented horse in the race – he hasn’t run in eight months, however.

Race 10, the Teddy Drone, appears to be a blazer as well.  #8 Roaring Lion and #10 Partyallnightlong may be position to get the desired stalking journey.

In Race 11, the Taylor Made Matchmaker, #3 Unbridled Essence is the defending champion and is re-united with Paco Lopez.  Cha-ching!  #11 Christine Daae tries the turf and keeps Joe Bravo.  Interesting…very interesting.

In Race 12, the Resorts Casino Hotel Haskell, #1 Coil – if he can work out a trip from the rail – appears ready to burst onto the 3-year-old picture.  #7 J J’s Lucky Train has the look of a live longshot (the horse he finished second to on Feb. 5 at Aqueduct came back to win the Wood Memorial).  Either of the Kelly Breen entry is a big root for.  How about a cold trifecta of Coil, Shackleford, Pants On Fire…with J J’s Lucky Train in the fourth spot for supers?

In Race 14, the finale, #4 Mata Keranjang has run against some good ones in his two U.S. starts.  He moves way, way up if Breathless Storm wins the Jersey Derby.  #8 Hariolus has very solid company lines.

*          *            *            *

And lastly, we mentioned it last week, but a special final shout-out and good luck to Sophia Mangalee who heads to Mongolia this weekend for the world’s longest horse race (630 miles).  We all wish her a safe journey and hope she has the time of her life.  She probably won’t know who wins the Haskell until sometime in late August so nobody spoil it for her.

*          *            *            *

Here’s hoping all of you have a fun and profitable Resorts Casino Hotel Haskell Day.  Be sure to leave us a comment and tell us about it. 

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Sunday

Race 2 – Check out jockey Carlos Marquez’s adroit extrication of rail-posted first-timer Zulbaby from untenable position inside pacesetter Crafty Kisses early on the backstretch.  He gave the filly every chance on a strip favoring outside paths, but Zulbaby simply lacked the foundation to hold off Just Do It Please (10 lifetime starts; four of them in 2011) late.

            3^rd-finishing firster Strategic Command was a bit slow to settle, green, altered course to the dullish inside while rallying near mid-stretch, and pulled up very well after the wire.  Trainer Russell Cash’s recent second-timers have been improving big time.

Race 3 – Todd Pletcher-trained firster Space Traveler was honed to a super-fit edge with numerous five-furlong Churchill drills while facing a field made up entirely of firsters who had worked many furlongs fewer than he.  It will be interesting to see how much more room for improvement the son of Malibu Moon possesses.

            3^rd-finsiher Tripendicular did not seem to relish being rushed early to maintain striking position in this abbreviated sprint, managed several subtle runs, and held position gamely through the stretch despite not changing leads.  He’s all about slower, rhythmic paces and steady, sustained runs.  Tripendicular can leap forward with a stretch to two turns.

            4^th-finishing True Awakening lost ground, but rode the outside flow while making his good middle move, finished decently, and pulled up well.  Like all of trainer Gregg Sacco’s newcomers, he’ll advance with continued experience.

            Last-of-eight Montbrooksoregal rushed up on the dull rail following a slow start from his inside draw and disputed the average pace for almost a half-mile.  Maiden claimers could prove an interesting fit.

Race 4 – 6^th-finishing I Did It His Way took the appropriate drop to the basement, but drew into a field full of speed.  The gelding rated and made a decent move when employing that strategy for the first time in his life.  Still, I suspect his true calling is to be alone and in control.

            7^th-finishing Fly Straight is moving around class and distancewise in classic trainer Trish Farro fashion after breaking his maiden in June when aided by a race set-up devoid of serious early foot.  He dueled with, and finished in front of, two much more heavily-bet pace rivals (including the 7/5 favorite) on the stretch-out here despite battling on the dull inside.  Where he truly fits, I really don’t know and I bet Farro isn’t quite sure either – especially since Monmouth has no seven-furlong chute.

Race 6 – 4^th-finishing Our Friend Harvey (second race in about this class after a drop) ran deceptively decently while compromised by ground loss and a hidden (no fractional times available) soft pace.  (How close Matt’s A Giant and Beacon Beach were early is the dead giveaway, but don’t tell anyone!)  He loves the inside or inside-out Bravo trip-masterpieces that can be derived from better post position draws.

            Last of nine Beacon Beach scored twice in 2010 for $7,500 claiming tags (once vs. New Jersey-breds) when going six furlongs on dirt.  He should get seriously, really seriously, competitive when he races under those conditions – or even takes a conditioned claiming plunge to a nickel.

Race 7 – Compare and contrast via race replay the professionalism levels of winner, and 10^th-time starter, D’Cats Meow and 4^th-finishing, 4^th-timer My Place Anytime.  The former came off a fast-paced wire-to-wire score, broke on top, but instantaneously accepted jockey Paco Lopez’s command to take back, relax and rate in complete rhythmic comfort off the embattled leaders.  The latter broke slowly after stumbling, reacted with high and head-bobbing amazement to dirt being kicked in her face, and tired from the effort of rushing into fast fractions while running like a giraffe.

Race 8 – 4^th-finishing P J’s Back flushed such a brilliant turn of foot stretching out in his turf debut that its odds-on trainer Joe Orseno already is thumbing through a condition book looking for a conditioned claiming turf sprint.  Heck, Orseno could even be looking at an allowance race considering how gamely the son of underrated but superb grass influence Put It Back fought the perfect-trip closers when they came to him in the stretch.

Race 9 – 3^rd-finishing, 19-1 Believe In Dancing discovered the benefits of lasix in her 10^th-career start at age four.  Next time, hopefully for her, she’ll discover the benefits of a tactical-trip-enabling outside draw.

Race 12 – Does the ghost of Eddie Arcaro want a piece of him?  What about retired great Laffit Pincay?  I don’t think so.  Jockey Francisco Maysonett is one tough dude to beat when he’s on a game horse in a stretch fight.  Witness the performance of the grim, gritty duo of Maysonett and gelding Oh Oh Bama in holding off the cavalry here.

*          *            *            *

Longing for the days when the Resorts Casino Hotel Haskell Invitational was a handicap that assigned real weights to the entrants?  Me, too.  Well, if the year was 1976, this is how I’d assign the packages:

Shackleford                  126

Pants On Fire               122

Ruler On Ice                 121

Coil                              119

Astrology                     118

Joe Vann                      117

Concealed Identity         116

J J’s Lucky Train            115

*          *            *            *

Watch the replays of the Grade 1 Man O’ War (Belmont, July 9, Race 9) and the Grade 2 Royal Heroine (Hollywood, July 4, Race 8) – especially noting the stretch runs when respective winners Cape Blanco and Celtic Princess can be fully observed in all their physical glory.  The former is a product of generations of Irish and English breeding stock and the latter, while having a couple of grandparents from the United States, mostly descends from Brazilian antecedents.  Both horses clearly are built more sturdily than their North American-bred competition with thicker bone and more substantial skeletal frames.  Each animal simply overpowered – and out-stayed – its more physically-refined rivals.  Neither Cape Blanco or Celtic Princess would be competitive in a beauty contest for horses conducted in this country – indeed both likely would have been totally shunned by American designer trainers and their slick advisors if they had been offered up at a yearling sale.  Why would anyone want a horse built to improve with maturity, carry steady speed over a route of ground, and designed to thrive in major races for older animals?  What would anyone want with an athlete designed to be a race horse rather than a sales horse?  Even now, as accomplished as they are, the combined “paper” worth of Cape Blanco and Celtic Princess in the United States is likely substantially less than that of dozens of speed-figure-fast-in-one-or-two-sprints juveniles and 3-year-olds that will appear in carefully-managed, perfectly-timed spots between now and next year’s big sophomore events.  There are many problems in this game and one of the biggest is the destructively devolutionary focus, enabled by some end-users, of far too many commercial breeders.

Oh, please let that me the case!!

Imagining that I am swimming in money gets me excited…yeah I guess that would be an obvious statement.  But it’s not excited in the sense of owning a huge house, or being able to go fishing on my huge yacht everyday, or being able to make fun of all my less-wealthy friends. 

I’m more looking forward to owning horses and naming them whatever I want. 

Perhaps some of the following would make the cut:

Van Nostrand (from Seinfeld)

Monchomba (from Seinfeld)

Thispeachissubpar (from Seinfeld)

Baba Ganoush (this classic, pungent Middle Eastern spread is best when refrigerated for three hours prior to serving.)

Burma (from Seinfeld; officially the Republic of the Union of Myanmar is a country in Southeast Asia.)

Don’tyoumeanmyanmar (from Seinfeld; see above)

Hitbyablimp (from…Friends)

Everydayballoons (from Seinfeld)

Movealongbetty (from Seinfeld)

I don’t care who you are, that’s just funny (although I will admit that some prior knowledge of Seinfeld would help you appreciate the humor more)!

Big week coming up.  Let’s have some fun.  Back on Thursday to talk Resorts Casino & Hotel Haskell Invitational.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Sunday, July 17

Race 1 – Masterful, old-school foundation building by trainer John Tammaro, III here bore fruit when frequently tepid-finishing My Honey B went fast early and kept right on going through the wire.  The mare sprinted in her first two starts of the year, had more rest here for her third-off-the-layoff try than she had when second off the bench, and worked longer and sharper than normal before stretching out to the kind of two-turn route that produced her lone previous victory.  Traditional handicapping rules apply to Tammaro’s stock and they run well when common sense says they should.

Race 2 – Shannon Uske swept the daily double with 4-year-old firster Certifiable.  The powerfully-built colt ran like he can come right back to succeed in higher-priced conditioned claimers and has decent grass breeding on both sides.

            Uske is a hard worker who gives 100% on everything she rides.  Her clients tend to be skilled, veteran trainers who are high-quality professionals and people.  By association and accomplishment, the same clearly is true of Uske.

Race 5 – Second-timer Jamzdeanfnklsteen showed vast improvement at 5-1 dropping to maiden claimers and switching to jockey Paco Lopez for master trainer Scott Volk, who won two on the day and had four victories and three runner-up finishes for the three-day weekend.  In addition to Jamzdeanfnklsteen, Volk scored with two big dropdowns, on a second-off-a-layoff horse, and finished second by a nose off a 208-day break.  Simply put, he can do it all.

Race 6 – He was well set up, but Kentucky shipper Sea Gaze won with such easy, sustained acceleration that a big step up into a very aggressive spot could be warranted for the Steve Asmussen-owned and trained gelding.

            Third-off-a-layoff 4^th-finisher Biohazzard put another building block on his foundation and could be ready to drop into a non-winners-of-a-race-in-six-months spot.

Race 7 – When Holmedancer didn’t want to play early, Donya, second off the trainer Ed Coletti $20,000 claim from Christophe Clement, was free to wing clear at a quick but uncontested clip.  The filly has a scopey pedigree and room for additional improvement.  As for the pace scenario here, three speeds might equal a duel, but two expected front-runners often translates to someone changing their style.  6^th-finishing Holmedancer lost ground and raced against a strong inside grain.

Race 9 – Was Primary Witness just so darn good running down a loose, soft-fraction, and even-money pacesetter in Gunfighter or was the latter exposed as suspect going two turns against a quality foe?  I bet the correct answer is a little bit of both, but only the future endeavors of the two competitors will provide the definitive answer.  You want cut-and-dry answers?  Well play Russian roulette with a rubber-faced dart.  This is horse racing and it’s all about gray areas, tough calls, and risk assessment.

Race 12 – Runner-up Big Red Wonder dropped back in for a tag and was tons the best.  She was done in by a hard, three-wide duel that drained her with ground loss and from fighting an inside turf bias.  She can right the wrong stepping back up into a maiden special weight group lacking a killer.

            4^th-finishing Quincy Lee likely will prove best on the Monmouth turf when limited to the one-mile distance.  She was much too wide here to succeed at eight-and-one-half furlongs.

*          *            *            *

It’s not just that Blind Luck is really good and seems to win all the photos.  Or that her come-from-behind style is Zenyatta-like.  What she’s really about is doing what a top-class race horse – in the traditional sense – is supposed to do.  She actually seeks out tough spots, runs all across the country, competed right through sore feet earlier in the year (when horses in other barns would have been put away for months or retired), and thrives at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter.  Indeed, the give and take concerning a Saratoga start for Blind Luck and rival Havre de Grace is more about the latter’s camp likely preferring more rest and a shorter distance than it is about general gamesmanship.  As for the two-pound weight difference between the two in the Deleware Handicap: Yes, it was unfair.  And no, it didn’t matter.  Blind Luck and part-owner and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer deserve a special Eclipse Award of Merit for reminding the racing world of how campaigning a top horse is supposed to be done – and for proving that the old ways truly still can work in the modern racing game.  Now, let’s start weighing regular Eclipse Awards towards horses who accept challenges rather than running away and hiding in their stalls.

*          *            *            *

The upcoming lasix restrictions for Breeders’ Cup races and the recent proposal to limit its use at Frank Stronach-owned tracks are worthy goals worth aspiring to, in the long-term, by the entire racing industry.  However, lost in the momentum, as it all too often is in this business, is the best interests of customers who must live in the here-and-now before they can survive into the future.  Does it really work for them to play by one set of rules most of the time and then have to guess about what horses and humans will best deal with a great unknown at a series of elite races and at a relatively small group of tracks?  Yes, big change takes time and the ball must start to roll in isolated spots before it can go everywhere, but the great theorists need to come up with a more practical plan that embraces all the game’s interests – now and in the future – rather than just their current crusade.

*          *            *            *

Kenny Peck is my friend and also my colleague in videos sponsored by Daily Racing Form and Monmouth Park.  Still, I wouldn’t lie for him.  So, when I say that he’s as good as any handicapper around, I really mean it.  And students of past performance know that I don’t throw such praise loosely.  Peck will be appearing on Friday evening, July 29 at McLoone’s Woodbridge Grille at the Favorites off-track wagering facility in Fords, NJ.  He’ll be talking Resorts Haskell Invitational, undercard contests, and racing in general.  He’ll also be eating the garden salad.

There is a buffet dinner and a cover charge – call 732-512-5025 for details.

They were just petty dreams as I look back now.  But I was lucky enough to experience all three (even though the “huge crowd” at Shea consisted of a few hundred parents.)

When Sophia Mangalee was in third grade, she dreamt about riding horses in Mongolia – yeah, that’s right, the country between China and Russia.  She’s been out of third grade for a while now, but in a little over a week, Monmouth Park’s marketing manager leaves to embark on a 630-mile horse race – the longest in the world.

Over what could be a 10-day period, Sophia will say hello to, ride, and say goodbye to 35-40 different semi-wild horses while traveling the steppes of outer Mongolia.  The racecourse has no directional signs, no fans handing out cups of water, and no police cars diverting traffic – just 25 competitors and their GPS units.  You sleep under the stars in the middle of the wilderness, you eat…well, whatever it is, it’s probably not that good…and you shower…yeah, I’m guessing you don’t shower.  

Ha!  And I felt like a big shot warming up in the Mets’ bullpen.

Sometimes to describe something above and beyond the normal call of duty we use words like “courageous” and “brave” and “adventurous.”  But what’s the word that encompasses all of those things, plus “dream-fulfilling,” plus “dangerous,” plus “insanely awesome?”

I guess you can say Sophia is being “courageously-dangerously-fulfilling-of-her lifelong dream-in-an-insanely-awesome-fashion-while-riding-wild-horses-in-a-country-half-way-around-the-world.”

Yeah, I’d say that pretty much covers everything.

For the average person, waiting for your dreams to come true involves hoping you cross paths with Jennifer Aniston or Brad Pitt (depending on whether you wear shorts or a skirt, of course).  For Sophia, training to accomplish your dream means riding five hours a day, running at 5-10 mile intervals, going to the gym for a few hours before work, and accumulating a number of different shots and vaccinations.

Ha!  And I felt special when the coach took us all to Carvel to celebrate winning those tournaments. 

Think about it.  I mean seriously.  A 630-mile horse race in a country that the majority of people don’t even know exist – does the word “unfathomable” come to your mind?

I’ve worked with Sophia for five years now and I have absolutely no doubts that she will be able to go over there and accomplish whatever it is that she wants to accomplish.  I haven’t yet seen the PP’s for the race, but I would submit that a few competitors might be likelier winners.  (According to past Mongol Derby handicapping, I’ve discovered the South Africans are more suited to the Mongolian conditions than the Americans), but I would be really surprised if this race meant more to any of them than it does to Sophia. 

Mrs. Mangalee is about to embark on a 620-mile long dream.  It’ll be dangerous.  It’ll be grueling.  But it’ll be invigorating and rewarding. 

And around here at the Monmouth Park Blog, that’s the kind of stuff that gets celebrated.

So the million dollar question is…what do you say to someone who’s about to travel half-way around the world, get on over a dozen wild horses, ride for over a week straight, travel on horse-back the equivalent of the distance between here and central South Carolina, eat who knows what, encounter who knows what, see who knows what…and, in the process, pretty much live their lifelong dream since when they were eight years old?

On behalf of Brad, myself and all the Monmouth Park Blog readers, we wish Sophia the best of luck in her amazing journey.  We’d love to see you come back a winner, but, even more, we just want to see you come back. 

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Saturday

Race 1 – Three-and-up filly-and-mare-basement-maiden-claiming-winner Brownsteins apparently had been working in company – and holding his own – with fellow Mark Hennig trainee Baffle Me, a 2-year-old filly maiden special victress last Sunday.

Race 2 – Unwritten, at 8-1, was trainer Anthony Margotta’s second first-race-off-the-claim score of the Monmouth season.  Evidently, Margotta has a plan because both horses were claimed from a second-off-a-layoff race and thus were primed for improvement next out when third-time form cycle.

            4^th-finsihing Evenings End showed renewed interest on the drop to claimers and could be set for a stretch back out. 

Race 3 – If anyone doubts how hard a job it is being a jockey, check out how much Pablo Fragoso had to work on 12-1 upsetter Knight Tripp.  The filly was fractious at the gate and green throughout the race, requiring Fragoso to change holds and put pressure on the steering wheel repeatedly to keep her attentive.

            Great job in upper stretch by Joe Bravo getting Idle Dice to change leads, but his mount simply wasn’t as talented as the winner and visibly hung her head late when she realized the futility of the chase.

Race 4 – 7^th-finishing Roman Maiden was stung by the quick fractions and repeatedly shuffled trying to keep pace with rivals better than her, but proved that she does like turf.  Now she just needs to find a proper level and distance.

            9^th-finishing Angels Way threw two different jockeys before the start – original rider Alice Cartwright, who unfortunately was injured as a result, and replacement Marland Suckie.  Once the race started, the filly made multiple moves while disputing very quick fractions and held amazingly well all things considered.

Race 5 – Silent Appeal put his blinkers back on and was totally professional, and dominant, in triumphing.

            5^th-finishing Gaelic Schemer can flat out fly, but has trouble finishing – even when he throttles down his speed early as he did here.  He needs shorter than six furlongs when he can bottom out rivals with a hard-as-he-can send leaving the starting gate.

Race 6 – Magical Myth just loves the competition and the game.  His come-again-after-being-passed score here was the epitome of race horse class even at the middle claiming level.  And by the way, note jockey Francisco Maysonett’s hyper-energetic, never-say-die handling on the colt after losing the lead.  Not every rider in the world would have believed – or worked – so much in a seemingly lost cause.

Race 7 – Winner Artic Air still isn’t big on that changing leads thing, but his versatility – and athletic mobility – are very dangerous things in the hands of the skilled Pat McBurney/John Forbes team.  Note the quickening, half-mile drills the duo used to hone the 5-year-old’s hops for his second-off-the-bench try.

            Runner-up Hung Jury, off a long break, ran super despite freshness and traffic issues.  He improved into his form cycle – and especially with two turns – last season.

            4^th-finishing Red Vow, very aggressively spotted in a non-winners of one allowance off the claim, was wide, hard-used, and sharp.

Race 9 – Runner-up Quepos’ finish might have been even more explosive – and successful – if he hadn’t jumped a shadow or a hoofprint in deep stretch and switched back to the wrong lead.

Race 10 – Distance can be a great equalizer – especially in the modern racing world when so few horses truly are bred to get nine furlongs and beyond.  Maryland shipper Dream Louise has stoutness on both sides of her pedigree and got just enough pace help to upset at 21-1.

            6^th-finsihing Champagnelifestyle (1.30-1) was a beaten favorite waiting to happen despite dropping down when returning only 13 days after an all-out effort to earn a lifetime best in a stakes race.

Race 11 – Runner-up Withgreatpleasure was the victim of a rail post position that got her backed up behind a close cluster of fillies with similar tactical styles.  She managed to make a race of it nonetheless after losing valuable position, but I still don’t think she was going to beat Miss Valentine on the day.

            4^th-finishing Salary Drive doesn’t like the pocket – or any other position save the lead or the immediate pace-pressing placement.  She’s still in prime form and simply needs a better set up.

Race 12 – 4^th-finishing Sugar Love (68-1) is yet another Manuel Berrios trainee who likes the grass, but just needs to find a field she can beat.

            6^th-finishing Miss Bar A moved up in her turf debut making multiple small moves.  She could be a filly most effective when able to get to the lead.

            8^th-finishing Nen’s Chocolate ran deceptively well for a New Jersey-bred coming off a long layoff, debuting on turf vs. open company with only an average lawn pedigree, and going two turns for the first time.

How could I forget about Blind Luck?

Other than coming out on the winning end of one of the best horse races you will ever see, this filly is an absolute freak. 

In 21 career starts, how many times do you think Blind Luck has finished off the board?  We’ll put the over/under at .5.  The answer is under!!!  She has NEVER finished off the board.  What!?!?

In 21 career starts of never finishing off the board – 19 of which have come in graded-stakes company (18 Grade 1 or Grade 2 races and one Grade 3 race) – how many times do you think Blind Luck has come in third?  We’ll put the over/under at 2.5.  The answer is under!!  She’s only come in third twice.  Blind Luck has finished first or second in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 races 16 times.  What!?!?

She races every month seemingly.  She runs on synthetic and conventional dirt.  (I think she’s better on the latter.)  She ships all over the country.  She doesn’t duck anyone.  And she ALWAYS comes running.  Unlike a number of the “talented” flash-in-the-pans out there, you know Blind Luck is battle-tested and you know she will never back down from a fight. 

With an injured Kentucky Derby winner and a handicap division, let’s call it “in flux,” Blind Luck may be the only truly-top-class constant running around two turns on dirt in the country.  She started 2011 0-for-3 with three second-place finishes, but Blind Luck is back and she is back in a big way. 

Last year, the large majority of the racing world screamed their lungs out for a girl to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  All of our hopes and dreams fell a nose short.  While Blind Luck is not Zenyatta (I think it’s fair to mention them in the same sentence, though), it’s very possible Ms. Luck could do what the Queen could not – and that’s win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Sunday, July 10

Race 2 – Winner City Genius worked at Woodbine on May 22, raced at Fort Erie on May 29, drilled at Keeneland on June 23, exercised at Aqueduct on July 2, and competed here at Monmouth on July 10.  Trainer Wesley Ward does a brilliant job managing his stock both nationally and internationally, but it really does seem like there must be more than one of him!

            Hello Lover was a game second off a 22-month layoff for the sneaky-hot Kevin Sleeter barn.  Sleeter already has scored this meeting off breaks of five and six months.

Race 3 – Baffle Me, with her scopey frame and long stride, couldn’t maintain early position in tight quarters approaching the turn and dropped back.  Fortunately for her, the leaders not only were dueling, but also genuinely going fast as well.  Baffle Me neglected to change leads and was otherwise green through the lane, but she ran down her foes with speed to spare and only will improve with experience and two turns.

            3^rd-finishing firster Peggy Joyce showed sharp foot along a dullish rail and held quite well at 14-1.  She’s bred to be okay going another furlong or so, too.

            Firsters Caviar N Champagne (6^th) and Leonarda (5^th) both brought relatively modest prices at the same August, 2010 yearling sale, but demonstrated plenty of signs of being useful runners, perhaps while dropping a touch in class.  The former held her position acceptably on the difficult inside and should have some speed in a weaker spot, while the latter raced greenly and spottily, lugged in and drifted wide, and then pulled up well looking for a route.

Race 4 – A routinely masterful, inside-out turf ride by Joe Bravo on victress Revenue.

Race 5 – Versatile Maple Forest rode the outside flow, but still demonstrated that she’s probably best as a pace presser. 

Race 6 – Winner Slews Answer moved disdainfully very wide into contention when the fractions were still strong on the second turn and ground down a graded caliber Euro through the stretch with speed in reserve.  A bigger turf course and more distance will only help this up-and-comer.

            East of Danzig improved on the drop and with the return to firm ground with a fourth-place finish, but even more noteworthy was Bravo’s ride.  Breaking from the nine post, the jockey took a quick peak coming out of the first bend, saw some daylight, and sliced through to the rail in a flash.  And there was nothing the other riders could do about it.  The guy is just so good it’s scary sometimes.

Race 7 – Improving Carson Bandit has speed and the toughness to gut out a runner-up finish on a dullish inside.  Next start, he’ll be third off a layoff and perhaps will whisper to his handlers that he has plenty of turf on both sides of his pedigree.

            7^th-finishing firster Alke John got a nice education and finished steadily like a horse who’d enjoy a route, maybe on a drop to high, maiden claimers.

Race 9 – Winning conditioner Jane Cibelli how has nine victories for the Monmouth meeting and Bombast – on the freakout here – was her fourth score first race off the claim. 

            Runner-up The Hunk actually ran well, but simply was overpowered by the victor.

Race 12 – Runner-up Chipped Tooth returned relatively quickly for the second straight time and had no answers for well-prepped (by super, low-profile conditioner Paul Kopaj) winner Casino Brass in deep stretch.

Friday

Race 1 – Big dropdown Burning Calories was dominant at 1-2.  Winning conditioner Scott Volk is as good as it gets at understanding exactly when to take the big plunge with a horse before it’s too late.

Race 3 – He was aided by a contentious race flow that expended most of his competition by the eighth pole, but firster Yes He Did’s last-to-first rally still featured a fast finish for a juvenile.  Keep him in mind when seven furlongs and one-turn miles are offered to youngsters later in the year at Belmont, Aqueduct and Laurel.  Runner-up Shisha ran too good to lose making multiple runs on a dull rail and pulling clear late of all his pace rivals before succumbing to the winner’s late charge.  He trainer, Keith Dickey, always has been superb with babies.

Race 5 – I Love I So Pretty was too strong a combination of racing foundation and maiden-special-weight class, but runner-up firster My Dreamy Mimi was so valiant in defeat – clearing, dueling, clearing again, and fighting late – on a dull inside that she might merit a step up to the protected ranks.

Race 6 – The pace was quick, but 5^th-finishing stretch-out Becky B still ran deceptively decently for a filly who was so passively handled.

Race 7 – 5^th-finishing I Did It His Way cleared and then dueled through swift fractions while on a dull rail before fading late against a very tough and deep field for the level.  He’s dangerous at a price when he drops to the $5,000 conditioned basement.

Race 10 – Bob DiBona, another master of the claiming game, had Ms. Short Pockets spot-on for her return to the selling ranks.  Outstanding Henny was pace-stung and held well for third dropping down second off a layoff for heating up Mary Hartmann.

Caramelized onions.

It was the first time I had ever made caramelized onions for a sandwich.  It was the first time I had ever not gagged at the thought of putting caramelized onions on a sandwich.

It’s weird how things change throughout the course of one’s life.  For the first 25 and 99/100’s of my existence, I said I would NEVER have caramelized onions on a sandwich.  The idea disgusted me.

That’s weird though, because Tuesday’s sandwich was delicious.  I guess it’s just another bullet on the list of things I’ve said I would never do…but ended up doing.

*          *            *            *

Other than the last seven years, I can’t think back on my life and remember I time when I wasn’t playing baseball.  And the vast majority of those memories involve me pitching.

But the very first memory of me on the mound was not the greatest.

I don’t know how I still remember this, but it was a game at Bodman Park.  It was on the first Little League field on the left as you drive in.  I was pitching for the first time.

After a VERY long inning that included many hits and many runs scored, I stormed off the mound and began to throw a fit on the bench. 

“I’m NEVER pitching again,” I said.

I got completely rocked.  It seemed like every kid got a hit.  But what I didn’t realize at the time – being just a 5-year-old pipsqueak – was that the reason I got rocked was that every pitch I threw was right down the middle. 

And as it turned out, that’s why I was asked to pitch again in the next game, and the next, and the next – because I was one of the only 5-year-olds who could throw it over the plate.

Twenty years later, the game I pitched in Shea Shadium.  All the All-Star tournament games I pitched.  The rotator cuff surgery I had.  Not too shabby for a kid that said he would NEVER pitch again.

*          *            *            *

When I wasn’t pitching, I always played the infield.  When I was younger, I played shortstop and a little second base.  As I got to middle school and moved to the bigger diamond, I moved over to third base.  

One thing I always said though was that I would NEVER play the outfield.  I just always had trouble judging a fly ball.  Plus, it’s just too boring out there.

Thinking back on it, walking into my high school coach’s office and volunteering to play left field to help the team.  The diving catch I made against Toms River East to keep the game at 1-0 against one of the best team’s in the state.  The two diving catches I made in one inning against Neptune.  Not too shabby for a kid that said he would NEVER play the outfield.

*          *            *            *

I might not have said this one out loud, but when I was considering colleges and going on campus tours, I always said to myself, “I will NEVER go to Rutgers.”

It was nothing against the school or the campus.  My Dad went to Rutgers.  My uncle went to Rutgers.  My aunt went to Rutgers.  I just wanted to do something different.

Yeah, I think Florida Tech would be considered different.  But then there came a day when the dreams of a baseball career ended – along with the thoughts of majoring in marine biology.

Thinking back on it, working two years for the Daily Targum.  Playing three years of intramural softball – and scrutinizingly losing in the playoffs all three years.  Hoarding dozens of school newspapers and the included Cluck-U coupon so we always had reserves to feed our late-night hungers.  Not too shabby for a guy that said he would NEVER go to Rutgers.

*          *            *            *

I’ve worked at Monmouth Park since 2006.  In those six years, I’ve worn many different hats.  (Including a big green one with Goofy ears one St. Patrick’s Day in July.)  I’ve worked in the horsemen’s bookkeepers office.  I’ve done marketing.  I’ve done publicity.  I even hot-walked a horse once.

One thing I always said during my first few years at the track, however, was that I would NEVER do TV.  I wasn’t comfortable in front of a camera and I had absolutely no dreams of embarrassing myself.

Thinking back on it, the Friday handicapping seminars.  The daily replay show at Gulfstream Park.  The TVG segments.  Not too shabby for someone who said he would NEVER do TV.

*          *            *            *

So what’s next?  What are some of the other things that I’ve said I would never do that will inevitably come to fruition in the coming years?

Well…

- When I was younger and the family would be driving south to Washington, D.C., or to Florida, or to a baseball tournament, we would always get stuck in traffic in Virginia.  There was always construction, or an accident, or large potholes.  It took forever to drive through that darn state.

I’ve always said I will NEVER live in Virginia.

- Whether it was a blessing or not, I was always very good at school.  I didn’t have to over-exert myself to get my work done in above-average fashion and never had to pull all-nighters studying.  (In fact, I did probably the total opposite.)  I was the kid who was in all honors classes, had to miss a day of gym each week for Biology lab (ouch), and always gave out the answers to the math homework.

But the day my college diploma I arrived in mail I said I would NEVER set foot in a classroom ever again.

- I’m not going to use the word “never” here, but some recent events have really gotten me thinking how far away from being ready to get married I am.  In no way am I ready to have to pass on a day of fishing or golf to go visit the in-laws or go wallpaper shopping. 

At least in the relatively near future, it’s going to take some kind of filly to settle this guy down.

Let’s just see if in 18 months from now I’m engaged and taking some sort of night class near my home outside Richmond, VA.  I’m going to say that’s pretty doubtful, but hey, YOU CAN NEVER SAY NEVER.

*          *            *            * 

Ok, I’m not going an entire blog without some horse racing.

- I went to see Rattlesnake Bridge on Wednesday and was told he was back at Belmont.  This doesn’t affect his still undecided status for the Haskell, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin just wanted to take a look at him for a couple days.

- Big night at Colonial on Saturday including the Grade 3 Virginia Oaks and Grade 2 Virginia Derby.  How about two 50-cent Pick 3 tickets beginning in Race 6 ($50k Kitten’s Joy Stakes)?

Ticket 1 – 2/3/5/6 with 3/4 with 2/3/7/8

Ticket 2 – 2/3 with 4 with 2/3/5/7/8

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories

Friday

Race 1 – Runner-up firster Caroline’s Starlite has some size and frame to her.  Her pedigree is ultra-speedy, but her body says six or seven furlongs could be her best game – maybe even two turns.

            4^th-finishing Missredhead, no relation, acted up behind the gate, was shuffled coming out, was cautiously handled until the stretch, leveled off well late, and pulled up strongly.  There’s talent there – it just needs to be harnessed or, possibly, blinkered.

Race 4 – Jockey Angel Serpa chose to try and split horses near mid-stretch rather than angle all the way out and it cost him on 3^rd-finishing Financier when the tiny hole closed.  Serpa and his mount had to alter course and never really got full room to maneuver thereafter.

            4^th-finishing Forever Fudge showed turf talent, but an inability to get comfortable sitting what for most horses would be a perfect pocket trip.

            6^th-finishing Griffin Rock tried hard and remains in good form relative to his actual ability.  He handles dirt and would be very dangerous with a drop to the basement on that surface.

Race 6 – Fit had never broken first out of the gate in any of his turf sprint tries – at least until he had Chuckie Lopez seated on his back.  The new duo speed-popped what looked to be, on paper, a very quick bunch.

Race 9 – Winner Pleasant Prince is quite an impressive looking physical specimen and ran to his looks here showing striking late acceleration once he extricated himself from what appeared to be hopeless traffic past mid-stretch.  He seems to have improved at age four, is better going longer (nine furlongs), and could make a dent in a thin and weak Handicap division.

Saturday

Race 1 – I didn’t see Oflee Wicked’s Sunland races earlier this year, but the 3-year-old filly looked full-bodied and extremely mature physically first time for her new barn.  She held gamely to beat older here and has room to improve even more next out with ample rest.

Race 2 – Anything either one of the Serey brothers are sending out right now is running well.  Juan, who won here with fourth-off-a-layoff Custer, excels with horses relatively deep into their form cycles.  (He claimed veteran, 5^th-finishing Rehoboth out of this race.)  Mario, who claimed improving, 4^th-finishing Mister Dish, scored with one new acquisition and placed with three others in 2010.

Race 3 – 3^rd-finishing Big Sur had a perfect set-up and trip and simply wasn’t good enough.

            4^th-finishing firster Tenth Wave, who’s been working well, ran wide and in spots while acquiring much-needed racing experience.

            6^th-finishing, New Jersey-bred Candy Mine, off a super one-mile breeze on June 26 (compare it to the six, seven, and eight furlong drills on the same tab), improved while overmatched and showed steady run for his talent level throughout.

Race 5 – Talented, 3^rd-finishing Purely Awesome found his gears jammed first-time vs. winners when trying to attack quick closing splits set by higher-quality animals who weren’t stopping after running under control early.  He needs to show better tactical versatility to merit a stakes shot.

            4^th-finishing Audeamus, coming off a $20,000 maiden claiming win, tried to make his SECOND move into super-sharp winner All In No Outs and then dueled through the stretch with high-potential Purely Awesome, just missing second to the latter rival.  The vastly-improved Audeamus will be a squirmy handful against any non-winners of two lifetime claiming or starter group in the area.

Race 6 – Tastefully Smart let a couple rivals out-break him, shrugged his shoulders and shook his head (Watch the replay – he really did!) when they impetuously cut-over in front of him into the first turn, then rushed up, dueled one foe into submission, and then toyed with a perfect-trip closer who looked ready to win by five in upper stretch.  The gelding was winning his fifth in a row and for the eighth time in his last 11 races.  He rates and stalks and handles dirt or turf.  Anyone nominating him for claimer of the year?

Race 9 – Chuckie Lopez on stretching out sprinter Richiefromshoprite thought he was going to get away loose and easy on the lead, but 43-1 Mikes Bet and Jose Valdivia had other ideas.  Midway on the backstretch, Lopez turned his head right and looked at his tormentors.  Think he was saying anything?  The hard-used Richiefromshoprite was dead-game, but just failed to hold off perfect-trip, 35-1 Sinatra’s Dancer.

Race 10 – The performances of still-improving-as-a-7-year-old runner-up Yummy With Butter and hard-used, deceptively-good 4^th-finisher Lots of Love Mom in Race 12 signal that trainer Yvon Belsoeur’s stock is getting ready to win some races.

Race 11 – Winner Rattlesnake Bridge is no barrel-racer and was under pressure to hold his position on the tight second turn before gamely wearing down All of the Above in the final stride of the stretch straightaway.  He will have to move forward significantly to be competitive in the Haskell Invitational – and I’m not sold on the extra sixteenth of a mile suiting him at the Grade 1 level.  The New Jersey-bred runner-up nearly completed a state-bred sweep of the week’s two 3-year-old stakes after Freud’s Honour wired the Choice on Monday.

            3^rd-finishing Little Drama had repeated subtle traffic trouble stretching out for his second career route while also on a dull rail for much of the trip.  He might be a tactical grinder going long and likely needs better early position than he had here to get a fair shot routing.

Just about a little of everything to spice things up and make life just that much more enjoyable – at least that’s what I tell myself to stay sane.

Let’s just say I think I need one of those necklaces of garlic Kramer wears around in Seinfeld to ward off “The Kavorka.”

After handicapping the Friday card in preparation for the in-house seminar, I discovered that I absolutely loved Hockley in the day’s ninth race.  I decided I was going to wager on him and formualte a Pick 4 ticket all around him as a single. 

As it ends up, it started pouring about 20 minutes before the ninth began, Hockley took a ton of money, and then proceeded to finish last. 

And that was just the beginning.

*          *            *            *

I got home on Saturday after another very frustrating day of picking (at least trying) the ponies.  Speaking about the Hollywood Gold Cup, my brother said was on Game on Dude and I was taking a shot with defending champion Awesome Gem.

As I made my tuna fish sandwich with chopped apple on raisin English Muffin, I said something to the effect of – “Well, the way things are going, First Dude is the lock of all time.”

Now the story behind this is that First Dude has always been – between me and my brother – the horse that cannot win.  He can run his tail off to be second or third, but he very rarely wins.  The way I was going, though, he was the lock of the century.

And what do you know, he won. 

On another note, taking absolutely nothing away from the training ability of Hall of Fame conditioner Bob Baffert, it’s interesting how in less than one year, First Dude has gone from a secondary-tiered horse to one of the best in the country. 

Where have all the stars gone? 

*          *            *            *

On a happier note, I had another buffalo chicken salad from the teletheater on the first floor of the Clubhouse again today.  And again, it was phenomenal.

If you happen to find yourself in there one day, I would highly recommend it!

*          *            *            *         

Finally a word on “my boy” Rattlesnake Bridge.

It was great to see him find the winner’s circle in the Long Branch.  It was great to see him handle two turns, it was great to see him overcome a stumbling beginning, and it was great to hear his connections indicate the Haskell was a possible next landing spot.

With Rosie Napravnik on the injured list, Rattlesnake Bridge will more than likely be my “root for” in the Haskell should he run. 

My gut feeling though is he is going to need to step up his game a little to compete with the likes of Preakness winner Shackleford.

I’m planning on visiting “the Snake” many mornings between now and the Haskell Day – should he stay around – so I’ll be sure to update you loyal blog readers on his condition.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Monday

Race 1 - 7-1 winner Four Shore was bolstered by some classic, old-school preparation before dropping to the basement here when third-time form cycle.  Two-back he sprinted and was lucky enough to benefit condition-wise from the race’s exceptionally fast pace and last time he stretched out in a particularly tough optional contest that now has produced three next-out winners and two subsequent runner-ups. 

            4^th-finishing Irish Eddie K. set and then disputed fast fractions against a double bias while wearing new blinkers and held reasonably well.

Race 2 – First-time starting victor Old Soul showed why his last three works all were from the gate with his tepid break despite an extreme outside draw.  Route-bred on both sides and possessing a steady sprint-run, two-turn New Jersey-bred stakes doubtless are his long-term destination.

            4^th-finishing firster Crafty Kiss, surprisingly dead on the board at 14-1 for connections that usually take serious money, ran gamely despite fighting with more experienced rivals while competing against the grain.

Race 8 – Hard to understand why winner Breathless Storm wasn’t in the Choice Stakes two races later on this very same program.  Sure, literal comparisons are impossible due to radically different pace scenarios, but he did run nine furlongs more than two full seconds faster than did Freud’s Honour in the Choice. Breathless Storm was well set up by fast pacesetter and 4^th finishing Marvelous Chester, who continues to round into peak form.  Incidentally the turf course remains a marvel of modern drainage techniques.  On Monday morning, it had a bit of give to it for the first time this season by the afternoon, sun and lowering humidity had rendered it obviously firm.

Race 9 – Roaring Lion was a perfectly set up victor in the Mr. Prospector, but surely he was catching runner-up Sean Avery at the right time.  The latter was returning in a mere 30 days off a freakishly high lifetime-best speed figure to contest a modest $75, 000 purse.  Some of the signals coming from Sean Avery’s handling here make the timing and placement for his next start much anticipated – regardless of where you stand on him. 

Race 10 – Freud’s Honour, half-brother of Ms. Glory Be – one of my favorite local horses – has his sister’s stamina, but sire Freud’s quickness and love for turf. At 18-1 here- off the stretch-out, he was disrespected by his more heavily-backed rivals and allowed to lope along on the lend while setting absurdly soft fractions.  Winning trainer Gregg Sacco has done a masterful job all season of patiently developing horses over the course of a race meeting and has a strong record in local turf stakes at big prices. Sacco gives his charges serious foundation through rigorous, by modern standards, work (at distances like six, seven, and eight furlongs) and race schedules.  As a result, nobody is better than he at getting young animals to transition successfully from one turn to two.

            Don’t hold Kentucky Reign’s fourth-place finish against him.  He actually ran very well against a strong negative pace situation making the only serious wide run in a rule lacking any real flow.

Smile thinking about the days when my favorite horse of all-time, Hotstufanthensome, was throwing down in these events.

We’re two days away from the seven-year anniversary of Hotstufanthensome’s first win at Monmouth Park.

What a perfect time to reminisce.  The following video is my favorite race from the career of Hotstufanthensome.  It’s the Grade 3 Mac Diarmida from the year 2006.  Nobody thought he could win this race.  He was a stretching-out unknown in a field of proven, stakes-winning marathoners. 

That’s what made this race so sweet.  Apparently heart, desire and will don’t show up in PP’s. 

*          *            *            *

Some horrible news came across the wire yesterday when it was announced that Monmouth Park Blog favorite Rosie Napravnik would be out indefinitely with a broken arm.

Just terrible news.

As stated before in this space, Napravnik represents everything you could ever want in a jockey – or any professional athlete for that matter.

Her mindset, will to win, and work ethic are absolutely phenomenal. 

Here’s wishing Rosie and quick and safe recovery.

*          *            *            *

It’s amazing how superstitious one could be if you really tried.

This winter at Gulfstream we were eating dinner one night and saw on the ESPN bottom line that a pitcher from the Florida Marlins had a no-hitter in the 8^th inning.  We immediately asked the bartender to switch the game onto one of the TVs.  The FIRST pitch after the channel was switched was grounded up the middle for a base hit.  Bye bye, No-No.  What are the odds of that?

The other day, I was flipping through channels and stopped on the YES Network when I saw the Yankees hadn’t gotten a hit through the first five innings.  The FIRST at-bat that I saw live was a basehit from Mark Teixeira?  Bye bye, No-No.  What are the odds of that?

On Monday, I played a Pick 3 at Monmouth Park ending in the Choice Stakes.  Heading into the final leg I was alive to five of the eight horses.  The three horses I didn’t use finished last, second to last…and first!!  Bye Bye, dinero.  Of course, leading up to the race, I knew I had no shot of winning – despite having more than half of the field covered.

Why?

Because like an idiot I ran my mouth and told everyone that I was alive to five horses.  I was counting my money before I had it.  I guess I got what I deserved.

What are the odds?   

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Friday

Race 4 – The freshly-manicured turf course looked to have a lot less grass on it than it did last weekend and 31-1 Shahadaroba took full advantage of the close-shaved conditions with a front-end score.  Mistressia (3^rd) and Galofmydreams (4^th) rallied well considering the prevailing circumstances.

Race 6 – A beautifully patient ride by Chris DeCarlo on winner Saucy Jade.  The word “checked” might appear in the trouble line of her past performances, but don’t be deceived.  She had a virtually perfect trip.  DeCarlo is riding with great confidence and passion.  Runner-up High On Kitten is not a natural on this tight-turned, short-stretch turf course.

Race 7 – 3^rd-finishing Bells of Concerto earned a sharp and improved pace figure while still competing well above the price of the recent claim by underrated Charlie Harvatt.

            4^th-finishing Cat’s Got Legs disliked dirt in her face and/or running with horses to her outside.  She actually showed some interest when clear late and needs an outside draw.

Race 8 – Near millionaire Who’s the Cowboy, a 9-year-old who’s been a career-long stretch-running sprinter, must have been shocked and amazed when he drew clear in this route race with more than five furlongs yet to be run.  The old-timer kept his composure like the grizzled pro he is, but was worn down late by improving youngster Smoke the Devil, a 4-year-old with New Jersey-bred stakes in his future.

Race 9 – Loved the versatility shown, while stepping well up in class, by 3^rd-finishing Courage To Be.  He was the best-finishing pace-involved horse after charging effectively from way back last time.

            As for runner-up The Cognac Kid, his sharp brush could prove an interesting tool in the hands of new owner/trainer Peter Kazamias, who claimed him for $35,000.

Race 10 – Marion Ravenwood ran like a quintessential high-grade dirt filly here off a six-week layoff.  She blazed away early and kept right on going – winning even easier than the 4 ¾-length margin indicates.  Controlling her speed against better and maintaining focus are key hurdles, but her connections no doubt are counting down from 42 right now in search of the next available graded stakes.  Marion Ravenwood is a serious racehorse.

Saturday

Race 1 – Winner Duffy’s Tavern might be the hottest claimer in the country right now for $22,000 or less, but 4^th-finishing Celluloid Hero was allowed little chance to beat the beast with a woefully indecisive and unassertive ride that lacked urgency at critical times.

Race 2 – First-timer runner-up Technicality has a pedigree saying sprint, but a body, style and stride indicating route.  What does trainer Patrick Biancone think?  The spot he picks for the filly next out will be the answer.

Race 3 – Runner-up My Adonis, a firster, descends from a sire line of true stayers.  He finished well late here and trainer Kelly Breen, as good as it gets at stretching out juveniles to two-turns, no doubt is anxiously awaiting the first route maiden race for babies.

            4^th-finishing New Jersey-bred Deliburnsky battled fully-primed, Kentucky-born Scallion (the victor) for almost a half mile and still was second past mid-stretch.  Any state-bred that beats him next out will have to be awfully good.

            And speaking of NJ-breds, J. Willard Thompson debuter Exhibit A, out of highly-productive race and broodmare Jittery, raced greenly, but never gave up.  He has a shot to earn plenty against his own kind.

Race 4 – Check out the replay to see how superstar jockey Jose Lezcano uses a combination of soft hands and subtle strength to get the best out of Seventh Star, a difficult horse to ride.

            5^th-finishing Curragh plugged along in improved fashion for Holly Harris, a trainer adept with claiming types.  Harris still has another card to play and conditioned claiming rung to step down.

Race 9 – 7^th-finishing Lady Kafca, once again in-tough versus prime-season allowance company, rated and angled out very wide on the first turn despite breaking from the rail.  This came after sending too hard to the lead two back.  Perhaps the mare will get her style just right next out with a drop back to non-winners of three lifetimes claimers.

Race 12 – 6^th-finishing NJ-bred second-timer Chipped Tooth stepped well up in class here a mere six days after his debut when he broke slowly and rushed into a blazing pace while very wide.  The Dan Lopez trainee added blinkers and lasix, broke better, and was near quick fractions dominated by an open-quality winner.  The placement and rest-time for his third race will be interesting.

            7^th-finishing Gaelic Schemer broke better in his second try and again showed high-octane early foot while dueling with the sharp victor.  An outside draw would be a big help as he continues to build condition for a patient outfit.

Sunday

Race 2 – Yeah, 5^th-finishing Our Royal Affair blew the start and likely lost all chance right there, but did he really need to be so wide entering the stretch?  All things being considered, he actually ran rather well.  Question is, will he break better in the future even with an outer-more draw?

Race 5 – How does well-rested, good-figure Western Flyer go off the 5.30-1 fourth choice here for master trainer Ed Broome?  There’s always value in this game – you just have to let the tote board come to you. 

Race 6 – It was all about the races coming off the turf for owner/trainer Jimmy Frangella.  He finished second in Race 4 with classy Pampered Sir at 10-1 and scored here at the same price with third-off-a-layoff Ciro’s Clearance.  The latter improved into his form cycle in 2010 as well and both Frangella horses were ridden by seven-pound apprentice Ramon Moya, who might be starting to pick up some serious steam.  Moya’s strength always has been coming from off the pace – as he did with both 10-1 shots.

Race 7 – Returnee, 4^th-finishing Ride Out The Storm learned to rate in her maiden breaker last November, but took that lesson to an extreme here.  Still, she finished decently and pulled up well for a barn that’s live second off the bench.

            5^th-finishing PJ Hooker experienced fairly severe traffic into the turn while also running on a very dull rail.

Race 8 – 5^th-finishing Little Stitch seems to be coming around much more quickly than in 2010.  She disputed a very fast pace throughout (and had to hustle after a tepid start, too) while stuck on the deep rail, put away one challenge, had no answer for the well set up winner, but still held well until past the eighth pole.  Next time she’ll be third off a layoff.

Race 9 – Flashpoint just might have had his Ghostzapper moment.  The latter established himself as a true superstar a few years back when he stupendously won Monmouth’s Iselin on a wet track.  (The surface was sealed for that Iselin, but harrowed here for the Grade 3 Jersey Shore.)  On an extreme cut-back from the Preakness, Flashpoint was under some pressure early to keep up with very fast local Zero Rate Policy.  Meanwhile, the very sharp Chipshot was sitting off his flank in a perfect spot while under a long, relaxed hold.  Once in rhythm again with the six-furlong game, Flashpoint put away his speed rival, met the challenge of Chipshot, and sprinted away from that foe with sudden acceleration near mid-stretch.  Many sprinters can run a half in 44 2/5, but very few can THEN finish up in consecutive 12’s – specifically after being asked some early.  And Flashpoint seemed to get stronger the farther he went and surely could have gone another furlong nearly as quickly.  He’s a major, major talent.

Other than Animal Kingdom – who I dubbed as my Derby horse, but figured was unlikely to come to Monmouth – I tabbed two horses as potential Haskell horses this winter at Gulfstream.

One was Cal Nation, who was entered and scratched out of Sunday’s Jersey Shore Stakes, and the other was Rattlesnake Bridge.

The latter arrived at Monmouth Park this week for a scheduled start in Saturday’s Long Branch Stakes – the final prep before the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell.

Rattlesnake Bridge will enter the Long Branch in a very similar fashion to last year’s LB champ and Haskell runner-up Trappe Shot.  Both are owned by Mill House.  Both trained by McLaughlin.  The Long Branch is/was the first two-turn race for both of them.

It was the debut win by Rattlesnake Bridge that burst him onto my Haskell horse scene.  He won, but let’s just say it was not very pretty.  I just felt there had to be some talent there for him to beat a decent field while as green…I don’t know, something really green.

Next time out, all Rattlesnake Bridge did was run second behind reigning 2-year-old champion Uncle Mo – while making a pretty menacing move at the top of the stretch.  Both of the Snake’s races since Gulfstream have been decent efforts over off tracks so I’m looking forward to his return to a fast strip.

(INSIDE INFORMATION!!!)  Adding to the excitement had this morning was when McLaughlin’s assistant trainer (and Monmouth Park Blog reader!) Andrew St. Lawrence told me that Rattlesnake Bridge worked amazingly well on Friday and that the work was “about as professional as you could be.”

I like that!

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Sunday, June 26

Race 1 – 10-1 runner-up Leave It To Bern was switching to jockey Erick Lopez for trainer Luis Carvajal.  Hmmm…that sounds familiar.  On Friday, Carvajal-trainee I Did It His Way switched to apprentice David Lopez and scored at 55-1, giving the bug his first career victory.  Both Erick and David are sons of long-time Monmouth standout jockey Chuck C. Lopez, who’s one of the best in the business out of the gate and on the front end.  As for the youngsters’ grandfather and Chuckie’s father, that would be Carlos Lopez, who won the 1980 Haskell with Thanks to Tony and scored the biggest-odds upset in the history of the Meadowlands Cup with Great Normand.

Race 4 – Lighthouse Sound once again proved that he can adjust to any pace scenario.

            3^rd-finishing, quick-returning J Isle was very hard-used on the lead once more and can earn plenty of cash in races he controls.

            5^th-finishing Custer, despite being compromised by a poor post and a wide trip, ran a much-improved race.  A subsequent start in a $25,000 claimer or lower would represent a serious drop in class for him and anyone else who ran in this killer first edition of the Malouf starter series.

Race 5 – Winning juvenile filly firster Greatful Heir clearly can fly for five, but runner-up Terralba inherited the pedigree and demonstrated the perseverance to catch the heirs going a furlong or more farther.

            5^th-finishing Morethanvictorious debuted for a patient and often grass-oriented barn and competed more forwardly than anticipated by her 41-1 odds.  She has some turf in her pedigree – especially on the sire side.

Race 9 – Feel that Fire got the best of the pace set-up and bias, but runner-up D’ Wild Ride continued her steady improvement.  The latter needs a post position break to maximize her stylistic versatility.

Race 11 – Fleet Francis must have been licking her lips waiting to become eligible for this non-winners-of-a-race since December 26, 2010 condition after knocking heads with tougher in her first two starts of the meet.  Fortunately for her – and her chapping skin – the condition book cooperated on the very first possible day (June 26).

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While Belmont June 18 maiden winner Raison d’Etat is all the rage in the rush to anoint the next faux superstar, I’m looking forward to seeing runner-up Za Approval return to turf.  He’s a work in progress, but he has big-time, quality speed and the family tree to excel in grass Grade 1’s for many years.  And incidentally, while we’re on upwardly-mobile prospects, I much prefer Belmont June 19 maiden victress Kinda Spicy to colt Raison d’Etat.  The former is smoother, more efficient and natural, and has, to my eye, greater scope for long-term improvement.

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Apart and Crown of Thorns had troubled trips in the Grade 1 Foster a couple weeks ago at Churchill that caught many eyes.  However, their traffic issues can’t hide some of their own qualitative limitations.  The former lacked acceleration (before his stretch trouble) when he needed it at the 3/16ths pole and the latter discovered that the easy maneuverability so readily obtainable in small, barely-competitive California fields doesn’t exist in deep, evenly-matched contests.  Both Apart and Crown of Thorns need the right kind of trip.

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Ryan Goldberg’s terrific story about handicapping and betting pioneer George E. Smith, known as Pittsburgh Phil, in the June 25 Daily Racing Form Weekend section dug down to the roots of this great industry.  Smith was the most important early inventor of modern handicapping and as such is the evolutionary link in a DNA chain leading to the emergence of the fully-developed wagering game we have today.  And of course it’s that betting that has financed every person and every entity in the business during the pari-mutuel era.

For far two long, racing has pretended to be a sport rather than a gambling game with sports aspects.  (It also has dozens of other elements weaving through its rich tapestry, but it’s betting that ties all the threads together and makes the whole design feasible.)  This failure to properly classify itself has proven catastrophic through the years, adversely influencing the industry’s overall focus, vision, marketing, product development, use of television, governmental lobbying, relations with customers (bettors, not fans!), and over-pricing of it’s product (takeout!).

Only in recent years has racing begun to atone for its original sin.  Still, I was surprised (No, not really.  I was just trying to be polite.) to discover, after being inspired to check by Goldberg’s story, that there currently is no place to honor Smith in the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame.

While regular enshrinees are limited to horses, jockeys and trainers, there is a special category called Exemplars of Racing that has been used to pay tribute to influential owners, breeders and executives.  It’s long past time for their club to include the most important horseplayer in history.  The induction of George E. Smith, Pittsburgh Phil, as an Exemplar of Racing in the game’s Hall of Fame would be overflowing with both deserved practicality and long overdue symbolism.  I plan to submit Smith’s name to the Hall’s nominating committee through Communications Coordinator Brien Bouyea at nmrmedia@racingmuseum.net.  What about you?

Haskell aside, my favorite race of the Monmouth Park season is this Saturday.  That would be the Grade 1, $750,000 United Nations.  This year especially, the race is aptly named as participants are coming from absolutely everywhere. 

We have Bourbon Bay, a Californian who ran in Dubai earlier this year; Stacelita, a French-bred filly who has competed in Europe and Hong Kong; Belle Watling, aka the Chilean Zenyatta; and the Irish-bred, defending champion Chinchon, whose last four races have come in New Jersey, Canada, Dubai, and Singapore.  Add in your American-based animals and that’s a mixed bag if I’ve ever seen one.

Of the local contingent, Monmouth Stakes winner Teaks North appears best.  Of the rest, I like the filly Stacelita.  She was second behind Midday over good/fast ground last year, finished only four lengths behind Sea the Stars in the 2009 Arc, and gets Joe Bravo.  That reads like a winner combination to me.

Saturday’s Grade 3, $200,000 Salvator Mile didn’t come up too shabby either.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see just about any of the seven win, but how about Motovato in a slight upset?  Some of the others have a few questions marks while this guy ships up from Florida for his third start off the layoff.  Gets Bravo.

There’s a $100,000 guarantee in Saturday’s late 50-cent Pick 4.  Possibly we’re looking at a Monmouth Park blog ticket of: 7/11 with 2/3/5 with 2/3/6/8/10 with 1/8/11 ($45 play).

 *          *            *            *

At Belmont on Saturday, they have three stakes races and a $300,000 guaranteed Late Pick 4. 

In the Grade 2 Suburban, I’m sticking with Icabad Crane.  I liked him before he was scratched out of a stakes race at Churchill on Derby week.  I liked him last time on Preakness Day.  Sticking with.

How about a Monmouth Park blog Pick 4 ticket of: 1/2/6/8 with 2/7 with 1/4/6 with 3/4/7/11 ($48 play). 

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A few weeks back I produced my Top Ten Horses Currently Running in the United States for an edition of the blog.  Two of those animals are running in Grade 1’s at Hollywood on Saturday.  Courageous Cat drew the rail in the Shoemaker Mile and Amazombie will break from post 7 in the Triple Bend. 

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Hey, it’s Fourth of July Weekend.  Yeah, that’s right.  Other than four days of action-packed excitement at Monmouth Park, that means fireworks, traffic and barbeques.  Now an interesting question is what is the best barbeque food of all-time.  Hmm.  I’m thinking it’s got to be something basted in barbeque sauce.  I’m thinking it’s got to be some sort of meat.  I’m thinking it’s got to be tender enough to fall off of whatever bone it may or may not be attached to.  I’m thinking…it’s time for dinner.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories

Friday

Race 1 – The ambiguous 40-day break coupled with a substantial drop to the basement following a solid return turned out to be a positive, at least in the short term, for winner Sweet Trish.

            Runner-up Gold Bargain has been plagued by tough set-ups all meet and has more ability than indicated by her bottom line.  Her claim here for $7,500 could prove a most-productive bargain for trainer Collin Maragh and K C Star Stable.

            5^th-finishing Whathecatdrggedin again demonstrated that she’s substantially better on wet going.

Race 2 – When the dirt came up wet and sealed, improving 5^th-finishing Shesasuperfreak lost all chance on the cutback.  Still, the filly held her mid-pack position in acceptable fashion after chasing a dominant, loose-speed winner in her previous try around two turns.  Without long, one-turn races on this circuit, it’s likely back to routes for the Ed Coletti trainee.

Race 3 – Kudos to Daily Racing Form handicapper, red-hot Kenny Peck and Monmouth Park’s Brian Skirka for both selecting 11-1-in-a-six-horse-field Broken Trail.  The gelding got a good pace set-up, but still was the first and only horse to close any real ground in the first seven races.

Race 5 – Last of five, second-off-a-layoff Go Go Pink had little chance when the race was switched to dirt and she was hung along wide against the grain.

Race 6 – Locally-based, stepping-up-in-class Devilish Star ate up favored New York-based dropdown Storm Rubi in a pace fight and drew off through the stretch.  That’s not the first time such a scenario has played out in the history of Monmouth Park.

Race 7 – The game, steady finish of stretching-out second-timer Daily Catch (who finished 3^rd) was yet another indication that the stock of old-school master Lloyd Kromann is rounding into peak fitness.

Race 8 – Partyallnightlong is such putty in the nurturing hands of jockey Carlos Marquez that it’s really hard to tell how much gas that colt truly had left in the tank.  Is he a Grade 1, 2 or 3 sprinter?  I don’t know.  I do think, however, that an outside, close-pressing trip is really important to both horse and rider.

            3^rd-finishing Despite the Odds has ready and easy speed for 5 ½ furlongs.  Perhaps it’s worth giving him another try on turf – but this time in a sprint.

Race 9 – 4^th-finishing Maddie’s Odyssey raced spottily on a surface she disliked, but courageously made multiple runs.  She’s in fine form for a return to the lawn.

Race 10 – Ms. Glory Be is one of my favorite horses.  She’s all about the things I admire most about Thoroughbreds – heart, stamina and durability.  As usual, she just kept coming and at 9-1, as a Monmouth TV host Mike Curci selection, wore down the 3/2 favorite.  Just on character, reliability, and relentless perseverance, Ms Glory Be HAS to have a Jersey-bred stakes win in her future.

Race 11 – Tastefully Smart is bred to be a champion sprinter, yet his forte is going long on fast, wet or turf.  This was his fourth win in a row – all on the lead.  But don’t worry about the 7-year-old gelding, he has no qualms about sitting a trip when the situation beckons.

Race 12 – Trainer Russell Cash had three wins at Monmouth in 2010.  At the end of Day 17 of the 2011 season, he had three as well with the 7-1 score of dropdown, quick-returning second-timer Ingress.  Cash’s other wins have been at 5/2 and 35-1 and he has placed at 5/2, 7-1, 21-1, 25-1, 26-1 and 48-1.  First and second-time form cycle has been his hole card – at least so far.

Saturday

Race 1 – Runner-up first-timer Hotnslick showed good early foot for the usually patient Lloyd Kromann and only should improve with experience.

            Another firster, 5^th-finishing, rail-posted Mary Hartmann trainee Magical Flair raced greenly, inattentively at times, and disliked dirt in his face.  He comes from a talented but quirky family and might have blinkers in his future.

Race 2 – Ishikawa has wild early speed that is accentuated on the turns – note how he has increased his leading margins in his last two while others have struggled on the bend.  He might be able to win well above his current classification level at Charles Town or Timonium.

            4^th-finishing Crafty Concorde ran superbly rushing into the pace monster after a slow start and held together much more steadfastly than the others who were relatively close early.

Race 3 – Speedy, maiden-special-weight-dropdown-to-maiden-claimers My Italian Ex was the 3/10 favorite, but his debut speed figure and toney pedigree made his availability for a mere $30,000 extremely dubious.  Speedy maiden special weight dropdown (the only other one in the race) Raven Train beat up the public choice early and held off a closer late at 15-1.

Race 4 – Best Jazz endured one of the worst trips of the season in the 1^st Race on June 4.  He switched to a bug rider here, got into the game early, and kept on going at 17-1.

            Grass-meant Grand Reality had bias and trip issues (the latter of both a wide and subtle variety) and did well to finish 5^th.

Race 5 – Southern Ridge had rated, rated and rated some more in his last three starts, but finally convinced jockey Carlos Marquez to let him get involved early here.  The results were magic and decisive as the colt at last looked like the graded stakes caliber athlete he appeared to be in June and July of 2010.

Race 6 – I have issues with how strong this race was, so I’ll take well-bred Date to Remember’s two-turn improvement with two grains of salt.  Still, if no strangers of any apparent quality show up next time…

Race 7 – Cornerstone was hugely over-bet in both his 2010 Monmouth races, but ran well and continued his improvement in his final start of the year at Aqueduct.  Fresh here for a top-shelf New York trainer renowned for his high-percentage prowess off layoffs, he went off at 5-1 as a distant fourth choice.  Go figure.  The colt dropped back to last into the turn before looping the field into the stretch and continuing on for the win.  The $147.40 exacta payoff with runner-up Raging Six was picked ice-cold by Thomas Cassidy in the program.

            The harrowed, drying-out dirt seemed to favor speed early, but starting in Race 6 closers began to thrive – perhaps due to the combined effects of bright sunshine and steady wind on the surface.

Race 9 – If indeed the bias did turn, runner-up Debonair Darling’s big pace figure and systematic dispatch of every challenge but the last one comes up an even huger effort.

            Last-of-six Sweet Goodbye ran a sub-45-second half-mile in a six-furlong sprint at Parx last time, but for some strange reason was rated well off the lead here despite stretching out.  Upset that her greatest asset, her speed, was being throttled, the classy mare fought with her jockey and squandered any closing kick she might have launched.  The race for her is a toss.

Race 10 – Summer Soiree proved she can sit, at least a little bit, and now is a quality winner on dirt, synthetic and turf.  Pace-pressure might prove her only issue in the future.

            I’d love to know what was up early with 3^rd-finishing Hessonite when she hopped and steadied completely out of the slow-paced race before launching a sustained rally to almost get up for the place.  There’s real talent here once she gets focus and pace.

            7^th-finishing import Janicellaine’s effort is much better than it looks.  Off slowly, pulley, rushed up wide and prematurely, she held her own until deep stretch.  With only three starts, two this year, and the opportunity to get Lasix and more distance in the future, Janicellaine is a filly to watch for in Canada or New York.

This weekend will be the first time in a VERY long time – maybe five years – that I will spend a weekend away from the racetrack, around not a single person that works at the racetrack, and go without watching a single race.

Oh, the racetrack life. 

I can’t even remember the last time I did something other than work on “the weekend” (that would be Saturday-Sunday). 

Since I’ve worked at the track, I’ve taken days off, yes.  But those were to go to Del Mar, Saratoga, or the Breeders’ Cup. 

Never to go to an engagement party in Connecticut.

Needless to say there will be no new Monmouth Park Blog on Sunday.  I’ll try to make next Thursday’s edition extra special to make up for it! 

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Even though I won’t be watching it, or gambling on it, the $1,000,000 Queen’s Plate is this Sunday at Woodbine.  Since I won’t be around to be made fun of for picking the wrong horse, I might as well give out a selection.

#13 Check Your Soul was super impressive last time out winning the Plate Trial despite hopping at the start.  Even with the poor beginning, he easily handled #16 Bowman’s Causeway that day, but should the 17-horse field provide Check Your Soul with some traffic trouble, Mr. Causeway may be able to turn the tables.

I’ll also give the filly #9 Inglorious a chance based on her undefeated record at Woodbine and her comparable time in winning the Woodbine Oaks as compared to the Plate Trial.

Was that actually giving a selection?

*          *            *            *

I came across another one of my pet peeves this weekend (that would be Monday/Tuesday).  I was out fishing and the topic of spot selection came up.  My uncle was joking about how it was okay if I didn’t want to pick the next spot because I would then have to deal with the consequences and embarrassment of picking a dud.

I laughed as I took the wheel because in actuality, I was thinking the complete opposite.  While the possibility of failure existed, there was also the chance that I would discover the “mother load” and be a hero forever. 

As I’ve said on the blog before, could you imagine if Michael Jordan refused to take a potential game-winning shot because he was afraid of the ridicule he would get if he missed?

When I used to pitch, my favorite situation to get thrown into was bases loaded, no outs.  I absolutely loved it.  Why?  Because I had a chance to be a hero.  Nobody gets out of bases loaded no outs without giving up a run.  It’s impossible.  I was lucky enough to do it many times.  The biggest reason wasn’t because I threw hard but because I always believed I was going to get out of the situation without giving up a run – even the times the first batter I faced hit a bases-clearing double.

I can never understand the people who are afraid of making decisions because they are scared of the repercussions of being wrong.  I say, what about all the rewards you get for being right?

And just for the record, that spot I picked…loaded with fish.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Saturday 

Race 11 – Third-place finisher Champagnelifestyle was tons the best, but was hopelessly blocked in upper stretch.  She had to wait for the whole world to pass her by and alter course before finishing explosively.  The daughter of Arc winner Montjeu has great stamina on her dam’s side as well, should appreciate distances even longer than nine furlongs, loves and needs the pocket (If she didn’t, jockey Pablo Fragoso, who’s blameless for her problems, would have been able to extricate her earlier!), and relishes giving ground – the wetter the better.

            7^th-finishing Well Equipped led much of the way as she had in her previous grass starts and again finished well in front of her pace competition.  She’s bred sprinty on both sides and raced for as low as $16,000 claiming last year on dirt.  Don’t be surprised if her third race off a layoff try is cutting back to one mile and dropping into a claimer or restricted starter.

Sunday 

Race 1 – While new Bob DiBona claim Haitian Sensation parlayed a perfect trip and set-up into a hard-fought victory, it’s hard to imagine significant immediate upside for the 5-year-old.

            Second-off-the-bench Grandstander improved markedly off the dramatic drop to an approximately suitable level.  His very shrewd connections still have one more card to play and that’s a subtle drop to a combination, non-winners-of-a-race-in-six-months claimer.

Race 4 – Where to begin?  3^rd-finishing I’m Feelin’ Fine, who battled for the lead with blinkers on last time, rated today and closed decently against a bias despite not switching leads in the stretch.  Newly-versatile with a stout pedigree on both sides, he might like longer.

            4^th-finishing, second-off-a-layoff Dr. Kenney used the big brush inherited from the maternal side of his pedigree to make a wild and premature backstretch move to the lead.  He has plenty of room to improve next out for a trainer, Mary Hartmann, whose stock tends to move forward as the meeting progresses.

            6^th-finishing Dear John was hard to handle and pulling early, wasting valuable energy, and still made multiple runs, even finishing steadily, despite traffic issues that actually weren’t his own doing.  He pulled up improbably strongly.

            When these horses next hook up, victory or defeat again will be all about the trips.

Race 6 – Strapping, long-striding firster This Buds for Us had his good break aided by his extreme outside post, but did all the rest himself.  He has a high cruising speed that he can sustain and even though This Buds for Us’ pedigree might say he’s a one-turn miler, his build and style indicate two turns and longer might work even better.

            New York-bred returnee Carson Bandit, who finished 4^th, showed spotty run once more and clearly has ability.  He also possesses some sneaky turf breeding on both sides.

Race 7 – Previously 2-for-26 Empty Handed needed every bit of jockey Joe Bravo’s turf prowess to just get up and hang – with the accent on HANG – on while beating 14-1 Themanmythnlegend.  The former was underrated trainer Tony Margotta’s second score of the day.  The latter, showing more tactical foot than ever and beautifully rounded to form by conditioner Doug Nunn, switched from a seven-pound bug to strong-finishing Angel Serpa and ran far too well to lose.

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Fitting all the absolutely necessary information onto a simulcast screen, especially during a live race, always has been a challenge for the racing industry.  But with all the effort and emphasis now being placed on cool logos and marketing branding, things are starting to get completely out of control.  A live race is the product and needs to be shown in as pure, pristine and uncluttered a manner as possible.  Anything less disrespects the customer and only will decrease business in the long run.

A few times a year – Haskell, United Nations, whenever Joey P. is running – it gets pretty darn loud down there. 

Well, you can add Saturday’s Grade 3 Pegasus Stakes to the decibel list. 

Maybe it was the local angle of owners George and Lori Hall and trainer Kelly Breen.  Maybe it was jockey Rosie Napravnik.  Maybe people just like Pants on Fire.

Yeah, pretty sure it was all of those three. 

Due to the large majority of young girls surrounding the winner’s circle, I would say Napravnik probably had the biggest influence on the crowd noise, though.  Trust me, if the press/employees were allowed to root, I would have been yelling right along with everyone.

I’m very happy to say that I reserved my spot on the Rosie Napravnik bandwagon a long time ago – back when I worked the winter at Aqueduct and she used the phrase, “I’m here to win” in response to a question about why we rarely saw her socializing with the other riders outside the jock’s room. 

I was reminded of that conversation yesterday after the Pegasus when Rosie said she wasn’t worried after Pants on Fire stumbled out of the gate because “speed hadn’t been holding and the outside was best.”  It might sound like trivial information, but not every jockey that ships in from out of town pays attention like that.

On the brisk walk back from the winner’s circle after the Pegasus – she had to ride in the next race – Napravnik stopped to sign an autograph for a young girl leaning over the rail.  Not every jockey stops to sign autographs.

It has to be getting more and more obvious how great Rosie Napravnik is for the sport of Thoroughbred racing.  Did you see what odds Pants on Fire went off in the Kentucky Derby?  He was the second choice!!  The #1 reason for that was the young lady sitting on his back.  With her charm and charisma, Rosie captivated the national audience that only watches horse racing once a year. 

Leading up to the Kentucky Derby, I loved every interview Napravnik did.  She was informational, she was relatable, and she was incredibly confident.  Not every jockey is that accommodating.

Case in point was a pre-Derby interview where the first question was something like “are you a jockey or a girl that rides horses?”

Without hesitating, Napravnik gave the perfect answer:  “Well, I’m both.”

The response was brilliant.  It was obviously accurate, but it was also said with enough sarcasm to say “what kind of a question was that?!”

But my favorite Napravnik story/quote came from a post-Derby interview.  The writer was chronicling her Derby experience.  The story said that as a gift for riding in the Derby, Napravnik was given a rose. 

Apparently expecting her to say she immediately went home to build a “Rose Shrine”, the author seemed surprised when Napravnik said what she did with the flower. 

The rose, the symbol of Napravnik’s first mount in the Kentucky Derby, was thrown on the dashboard of her car and died soon after.

“Why,” the author asked.

“Because I came in ninth place,” Napravnik said.  “Who wants to celebrate that?”

I like Rosie because she’s one heck of a rider.  I like Rosie because she says what she means even if it isn’t politically correct.  And I like Rosie because she is good and she knows it – and you can tell that she knows it. 

After all, she’s here to win.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Friday

Race 1 – Yes, his huge May 22 workout was almost a month ago, but it likely signaled that Audeamus, despite taking blinkers off here, was a newly speed-conscious individual.  The gelding threw down serious fractions, repulsed the favorite into the stretch, and drew off.

Race 2 – Easy, 50-1 winner Prince Anasheed now has two career victories and both have come when he’s drawn the extreme outside post in a relatively large field.  That makes perfect sense judging by the careful way jockey Pablo Fragoso rode the gelding on the turns.  Of course it also should be noted that Prince Anasheed once finished last of 10, beaten 29 ¾ lengths, when he drew the extreme outside. There are no automatics in this game!

Race 7 – Three-year-old filly Beach Badge faced some especially tough older rivals in this combination/conditioned claimer, but continued her development.  As the ranks thin through the season and the youngsters mature, youth will begin to be served.

Race 8 – Wow!  What an improvement by second-race-off-a-layoff, good-workout, 27-1 Cee The Country.  She can win on or battling for the lead and from well off the pace.  The problem is guessing when the inconsistent mare is going to show up.  Third-finishing, 38-1 Valentine Daisy finished genuinely well but truly was helped by the wet-fast, sealed racing surface.

Race 9 – Check the replay.  Watch the acceleration.  Note the classic, super-efficient daisy-cutting action.  Wicked Tune is an absolute monster in turf sprints.  But you know what edge he has that really can allow him to go far – like even Breeders’ Cup far – one day in his specialty?  It’s handiness.  Wicked Tune breaks well, allows his jockey to pick the best possible spot, and responds instantaneously to command.  He’s a big talent made better by his professional skill set.

Saturday

Race 1 – There were no stars behind him, but Purely Awesome really was in his two-turn, dirt debut.  The colt showed three legitimate gears and won with ease.  His stride is all dirt, but he’s still green and curious.  Purely Awesome is a work in progress and will be even better, mentally at least, in six months.

Race 2 – 7^th-finishing No Fret, involved in brutal pace duels in both two-turn starts at this meeting, is in much better form than his raw running lines indicate.

Race 3 – He was riding a virtual motorcycle, but note the strength, the precision, the speed, and the smoothness of jockey Angel Serpa’s stretch urging of Team Six.  Serpa is on the cusp of national super-stardom and reminds one of Alan Garcia when he developed on this circuit a few years ago.

Race 5 – 4^th-finishing St. Galo’s recent form says he’s a sprinter, but his pedigree and his hard-used over-achievement here at 22-1 indicate that two-turns truly could be his best race.  Dropping a notch or two would be a big help as well for the veteran 7-yaer-old.

Race 6 – J Isle had been rationing hid ample speed in recent starts, but today he used it in impressive but minimally productive fashion.  The gelding dispatched the speedy Federal Exchange after a tough tangle, but had no answers for two others in the stretch.  A cut-back to one mile is best for J Isle, who’s capable of very good things with the right trip.

Race 8 – 5^th-finishing Saint Dynaformer has a less-than-ideal set-up and trip.  He ran deceptively decently against a strong field for the level.  7^th-finishing returnee Roadhog got what he needed and considerately drifted out of everybody’s way when weakening into the stretch.

Race 10 – Sharp Grade 3 Pegasus winner Pants on Fire flaunted his versatility and acceleration versus a thin group.  He again established himself as his barn’s top 3-year-old – at nine furlongs or less.  Runner-up Concealed Identity had traffic issues and made two good moves.  His advancement here right after being rushed into the Preakness bodes well for long-term, continued improvement.

*          *            *            *

Awesome Maria was an absolute machine once again in Saturday’s Grade 1 Ogden Phipps, but Blind Luck’s typical pace-oblivious rally in the same day’s Grade 1 Vanity indicated that she’s back at her best.  It’s hard to see anybody in the older Distaff division defeating the latter in a full field containing even an average amount of speed.  Incidentally, when Blind Luck’s feet were bothering her a bit earlier this year, she didn’t take six months off like most horses in the care of designer trainers would.  Instead, she raced through it and now is back in peak form.  Top-notch athletes in other areas routinely deal with discomfort while continuing to compete and once upon a time, high-end horses all across the country did so, too.  Kudos to trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.

And kudos as well to trainer Mark Casse and owner William Farish, Jr. for taking a big shot with upset winner Pool Play in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster.  Despite being essentially a synthetic marathon specialist, Pool Play’s connections recognized the weakness of the older turf and dirt divisions and repeatedly raced their horse in high grade spots on both surfaces.  The Foster was their reward – now let’s see breeders support Pool Play.  He’s a triple surface threat with huge on-track stamina but plenty of brilliance in his pedigree.  He also had the durability to win his first Grade 1 in his 28^th lifetime start.  If racing is a healthy, properly-focused industry, the line for his services should be out the door. 

10) Giant Oak – He’s not a win machine (only five for 26 lifetime) but this guy is a multiple Grade 1 winner and has shown the ability to run effectively at 1 ¼ miles.  He doesn’t bring his A+ game to every racetrack, but the argument could be made that Churchill Downs – the home of this year’s Breeders’ Cup – is his favorite.

9) Amazombie – He’s never competed in a Grade 1 race, but is a Grade 2 winner and is proven over conventional dirt and synthetic.  Really liked the way he bulled his way through traffic last time out (even though it resulted in a DQ).  Not many sprinters out there have a final time of 1:07.28 on their resume – even in California.

8) Get Stormy – Has earned over a million dollars in his career and put together back-to-back Grade 1 scores this spring.  Seems to be best when on the lead setting his own fractions going eight or eight and a half furlongs.  Also LOVES Saratoga.  Should rack up a few more stakes wins before the year is up.

7) Blind Luck – Was as game as they come in 2010, but began this year with three consecutive second-place finishes.  Got back on track last time out with a gutsy win against Unrivaled Belle – avenging her loss to that one in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic.  Has now been first of second in 11 straight. 

6) Big Drama – Would be much higher on this list except he doesn’t show a listed workout since his race on January 15.  Should he show up later this year, he is clearly the best sprinter in the country.  But where is he?

5) Havre de Grace – Played second fiddle most of last year behind Blind Luck but has come back with a vengeance in 2011.  She’s undefeated in three starts this season, including a win over Ms. Luck and a Grade 1 score in the Apple Blossom.  According to the NTRA.com poll, she is the #1 horse in the country.  I won’t go that far, but she is very good.

4) Courageous Cat – Of all the horses in my top 10, I guess this one might be viewed as the biggest “stretch”, but he clearly is loaded with talent.  He’s only run four times since the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Mile – but that was a race where he finished second to the all-world Goldikova.  In his next start, all he did was run a mile at Gulfstream in 1:31.58!  Obviously, he’s hasn’t really been the type of horse that you see out there once a month, but if he can stay healthy, there’s no reason he can’t go on a stakes winning streak before the year is up. 

3) Trappe Shot – Um, yeah, he’s back.  Monmouth Park fans know this guy as last year’s Long Branch winner and Haskell runner-up, but he’s won twice sprinting in 2011.  He can go short, he can go long, he’s only run nine times and can most likely continue to improve.  I wouldn’t want to run against him this year. 

2) Animal Kingdom – He’s obviously only a 3-year-old, but he has already proven to be a gargantuan talent.  He’s clearly shown that he can handle all three surfaces, and the one that he is bred to be a freak on – turf – is the one he is yet to win on.  He’s had excuses in his last two races – I still can’t get over the move he put in on the far turn of the Belmont after nearing falling on his face just after the start – and he will only get better.  The sky is the limit.

1) Gio Ponti – There’s no other way around it, he NEVER runs a bad race.  This guy hasn’t lost a race by more than two lengths since November of 2008.  That includes 17 races (14 Grade 1’s) ranging from a mile to 1 ½ miles.  He’s a six-time Grade 1 winner, he’s earned over $5 million, he’s been second to Zenyatta and Goldikova.  He’s a flat out beast.  Right now, he is the best horse in America.

“Also eligibles”

Morning Line – If he doesn’t win, he sure goes down fighting.

Tizway – The vast majority of his best races have been one-turn miles at Belmont.

Apriority – Blisteringly fast but doesn’t win enough and has never won a stakes race.

Winter Memories – Only a 3-year-old filly, has only raced five times, but gets closer to the top 10 with every race.

California ‘Candy’ horses – Too inconsistent; both Twirling and Sidney’s.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories

You know, the struggle to fill races on a national level is getting so desperate, with more contorted conditions being written every day, it’s only a matter of time before someone comes up with the idea of an optional maiden race.  Not just with an optional claiming price, but with a low enough tag to put an option on the actual maiden condition as well.

And speaking of races, the starter allowances – the ones without conditions except for having raced for a certain claiming tag within a certain period – are really starting – no pun intended – to bug me.  The allowance weights do not sufficiently penalize the top horses in the fields.  These horses thus are continually able to take an advantage they would not have under legitimate handicap circumstances.  As a result, many starter allowances tend to be barely competitive and frequently unbettable affairs.  Make everything a starter handicap and put REAL weight on the top horses.  Please!

Heard yet another trainer complain about a horse of theirs not getting sufficient respect from bettors, handicappers, writers, broadcasters, etc.  Understood, these folks devote their lives to their charges and that commitment drives many to wear their hearts on their sleeves.  But people, this isn’t a popularity contest.  It’s a financial market.  When the stock of a major corporation goes way down, does the CEO cry that his company gets no respect?  Grow up and develop some understanding of how the game works and some RESPECT for the people who finance you and it!

Three Triple Crown races.  And three different tracks labeled their turf courses for undercard events at least one degree dryer than what times, kickback, and common sense clearly indicated they actually were.  Even trainers are talking about it.  Was it benign neglect and error or was it something else?  Frankly, it doesn’t really matter.  When things are so questionably represented in other financial markets there are major repercussions and corrective measures.  There have to be – otherwise business suffers.  Come to think about it, how has the national Thoroughbred racing handle been going in recent years?

Saturday

Race 3 – Huge improvement pace and final figure-wise by first-time lasix, second-time starter Shipwreck Cove.  A better post could assist her ability to sit some in the future.

Race 6 – Morningsideheights was much the best, but took the worst of it from bias, pace and trip standpoints.

Race 8 – Racyn With Gracyn was angled out very wide early, remained very wide throughout, and actually finished decently despite flow and bias being profoundly against her.  Where does she fit?

Congrats go out to Kelly Breen, the Halls and Jose Valdivia.  Get ‘em next time Animal Kingdom.  Maybe your stumble was actually a blessing in disguise.  Now maybe you will return to the turf where you are bred to be a beast (aka a king of the animals).

Here are some more pet peeves – along with a few likes and dislikes:

PET PEEVE: When a horse’s connections make excuses for their animal’s poor performance BEFORE a race due to the condition of the track.  Even if every grain of sand and dirt was removed and replaced with big chunks of asphalt – let your horse give it his or her best shot before coming up with excuses. 

PET PEEVE: People who complain that racetracks need to host more events and do more things to attract a younger audience…and then complain when those events “inconvenience” them.  You can’t have it both ways.

PET PEEVE: Public handicappers who get all defensive after they get called out for picking the wrong horse.  You have to take the bad with the good.  If you want all the credit for picking winners, you have to be able to take a little heat when you give out an absolute clunker.

FOLLOW-UP PET PEEVE: Public handicappers who select the correct horse and then showboat and brag as if they’re some sort of God.  Congratulations!  You just picked a winner.

LIKE: Track announcer Larry Collmus having the stamina, desire and ability to put out a tremendous call of the Belmont Stakes on Saturday and return less than 24 hours later to offer a just-as-tremendous call in the Monmouth Park Irish Festival’s Human Horse Race.

LIKE: The scene at Rogers Arena prior to the Stanley Cup Finals games between the Canucks and the Bruins.  How cool is the atmosphere during the Canadian National Anthem when the singer stops singing and the crowd takes over.  Very cool!

FOLLOW-UP LIKE: Doc Emrick’s use of the word “paraphernalia” during his calls of the Stanley Cup.  What a great word! 

DISLIKE: I’m sorry.  I’m finding myself just not liking the Miami Heat.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Friday

Race 1 – I like what jockey Elvis Trujillo did with the normally closing Willow Creek.  He sent her aggressively to deprive heavily-bet dropdown Full N Sassy the lead.  The latter looked on paper like she could get loose, but Trujillo’s tactics stressed her beyond what her current form level would allow.  Willow Creek put away Full N Sassy in upper stretch, but had no answers for two ralliers.  Still, give me an in-the-game ride any day of the week over a passive, no-chance journey behind short-priced favorites on a speed-biased track.

Race 2 – Some people tell me I look the same as I did 30 years ago.  Yeah, right.  But I’ll tell you someone who really does look just as he did 40 years ago and that’s trainer Frank Costa.  He also conditions his horses like he always has – old school all the way.  Shot Gun Marty joined Costa’s outfit for the season after shipping up from Calder and made her local debut against winners.  The maiden got her feet dirty becoming accustomed to the new surface, passed three tired horses late, and ran her normal A-Game speed figure.  When Costa returned her to maidens here, the now-acclimated and seasoned filly got up for second at 19-1.

Race 3 – First-timer Isaidi’dnever hustled up into a live pace after a tepid break sprinting and held decently despite being against a strong inside bias.  Her pedigree and preparation (two 5-furlong works and one 6-furlong drill) could lead to a future around two turns.

Race 6 – He doesn’t have a stellar turf pedigree, but Brady Baby ran quite decently in his first grass try while competing at a much too short five furlongs.  Not quick enough to get near the lead going this distance, he could be a clear front-runner stretching to two turns.  Race winner Wicked Tune can run short or long and on dirt or turf.  He’s yet another real and honest racehorse produced by the home-breeding operation of Patricia and Frank Generazio.  Their horses are speedy, durable, versatile, and always eligible to move forward on the turf.  For the actual productivity and benefit it provides to the entire Throughbred industry, the Generazio’s practical, breed-to-race program is worth many times that of any commercial, breed-for-a-beauty-contest operation in the country.

Race 7 – Shrewd and ultra-capable, low-profile trainer Paul Kopaj had runner-up Vision Of Noah all cranked up third off a layoff and in a perfect, conditioned-claiming spot.  What he didn’t count on was a 5-star speed bias that allowed pace horses to survive cut-throat duels and made winning rallies impossible.  The best laid plans….

Race 9 – Watch how closely Pedro Cotto on runner-up Primary Witness rides Paco Lopez on second choice Day of Destiny.  Cotto makes Lopez’s trip uncomfortable on the backstretch, the far turn, and in upper stretch.  It was a superb bit of race-riding by a very underrated jockey.  As for Lopez, he who gives no quarter…

Race 9 – Watch how Joe Bravo on ½ favorite and expected easy-lead pacesetter Running In Circles doesn’t panic when horses from inside posts make aggressive moves for the front into the first turn.  He kept his mount under control and within herself while wide on the sharpest point of the bend and only unleashed a small fraction of her superior quickness when things begin to straighten out into the backstretch.  It was a subtle but masterful display of poise, patience, and understanding the least stressful points for using energy.

Belmont Day

Monmouth-based trainer Kelly Breen’s Belmont Stakes victory with Ruler On Ice was richly deserved.  Year-in and year-out no conditioner gets more out of reasonably-priced sales purchases chosen for their athleticness rather than their toney pedigrees.  Breen trains and races his horses aggressively as juveniles and obviously continues to get results with them at ages three and four.  This is in stark contrast to other conditioners who baby and pamper their over-priced china dolls with slow breezes and six or more weeks between races in carefully crafted and limited non-campaigns.  Breen’s horses are tough and they prove it by repeatedly ripping the bridles off the overrated phonies trained by the so-called superstar, 40% trainers.  The “fragility” of the modern Thoroughbred is, to some degree, a self-fulfilling prophecy fueled by coddlesome conditioning methods that ill-prepare young horses for the stress of real competition.  Give Breen the stock “managed” by the game’s so-called elite and he’d TRAIN rings around them!

What in the blue heck was jockey Ramon Dominguez doing on world-class miler Gio Ponti in the 1 ¼-mile Manhattan?  He was so far back on a slow-paced race that all the horse’s gears and acceleration were taken completely out of the game.  Gio Ponti had no chance at all and it wasn’t the fault of a 6-year-old.  And big-time congrats to Naipaul Chatterpaul, the winning trainer of 21-1 Mission Approved off an 11-month layoff.  Chatterpaul is another good-for-the-game conditioner unafraid to run his horses frequently once they’re in form.

And what in the double blue heck was jockey Joel Rosario doing with Brilliant Speed in the Belmont?  Okay, the colt might not by the handiest horse in a shedrow, but being taken well back after breaking alertly and then being swung absurdly wide into the first turn – and kept there throughout – is no way to win a classic race on a sealed surface that clearly wasn’t supporting such a trip on the day. 

What do you do now with Animal Kingdom since he’s developed one-paced syndrome (otherwise known as Strikingthegolditis) on dirt?  Even accounting for the early stumble, was his flat Belmont performance, following a gearless Preakness, the result of being over the top or merely pining for his preferred turf or synthetic?  After the freshening, I’d point him for a long race on turf versus older to find out where he truly fits distancewise.

There’s a lot of great stuff on the Belmont Stakes undercard, so let’s take serious a look shall we:

Usually on huge days like this, I like to jump right to the stakes races.  Wo, ho, ho!  Not so fast on Saturday.  In Race 1, #5 Seal Cove gets back on turf after finishing just a head behind a very solid animal in Beachcombing last out over the Keeneland synthetic.  He gets Javier Castellano – the pilot during Seal Cove’s maiden win – back aboard.  #9 Batter Up had his two-race turf winning streak broken last out in an overnight stakes where he finished 1 ¾ lengths behind Longhunter, a Christophe Clement-trainee destined for stardom.  (And if those two horses run last and second to last, don’t worry, there are still 12 more races from Belmont – oh, and don’t forget 12 from MP.)

The first-level allowance race scheduled as Race 4 contains a future Grade 1 winner.  I know it.  I can smell it.  It smells like freshly printed Xerox paper with a hint of body odor.  I believe this equine to be #7 Rattlesnake Bridge.  The 3-year-old son of Tapit was as green as the day is long in his winning debut, then gave Uncle Mo a run for his money in the Timely Writer, then finished an ok fourth in the slop in a Grade 2 last out.  He’ll relish the drop in class and return to a fast track – and he’s likely maturing more and more each day.  Last year on Belmont Stakes Day, owner Mill House and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin sent out Trappe Shot to a 105 Beyer Speed Figure and that one went on to win Monmouth Park’s Long Branch and finish second in the Haskell.  I’m expecting the same kind of breakout performance from Rattlesnake Bridge on Saturday.  (And exhale.)

In Race 7, the Grade 2 True North Handicap, #2 Wildcat Brief is a horse I’ve always liked, but he’s got to be closer to the pace Saturday to make an impact.  In his two career races at Belmont he was 13 and 12 lengths respectively off the early pace.  There’s no way he can make up that kind of ground.  Maybe Paco Lopez can shake him up a little.  #3 Trappe Shot can turn into one of the best horses in the country this year if he stays healthy.  Watch out if he duplicates his last out.  Really watch out if he improves off that race.  Really, really watch out if somebody throws something at you while this race is going on.  I don’t know what #1a This Ones for Phil will do coming off a big race first time back after a year layoff.  I do know that jockey Joe Bravo was raving about him as he entered the winner’s circle following winning last month’s Decathlon.  (Yes, the same Joe Bravo who appears in a Flash Mob YouTube video singing along to Katy Perry’s “Firework” – in Paul Pompa’s silks!!)

To be a handicapper, you have to have strong opinions and you can’t be afraid to be wrong.  In Race 8, the Grade 2 Woody Stephens, #1 Travelin Man and #5 Arch Traveler are the best horses in the race.  The others just aren’t good enough.  (I think.)

In Race 9, the Grade 1 Just a Game, it sure looks like ALL the entrants have a shot at winning.  If you’re playing the Pick 4, it’s reALLy your cALL as to how many you want to use.  The bALL is in your court.  ALL I’m going to say is that this is one tough race.  There’s absolutely nothing I like about #3 Amen HALLelujah but every time I’ve had the pleasure of talking about her with her trainer he has said how he’s “ALLways looked forward to running her on turf.”  What that means for this race – who the heck knows.  #9 Justaroundmidnight will likely be the longest shot on the board, but I actuALLy like her for at least a piece.  Maybe she’s in too tough, but you can’t say she doesn’t run well off a layoff.  (You can also say I was supposed to learn not to use double negatives in college.)  I would like her even more if Joe Bravo were aboard, though.  I also like #7 Cherokee Queen.  Oh, just use them ALL and move on!

Running down the possible winners of Race 10, the Grade 1 Manhattan: #4 Gio Ponti has been the best turf horse in the country the last couple of years.  If he runs his A race, he likely wins.  If he runs his B- game, he might finish in a dead heat for third.  #5 Al Khali doesn’t run well on soft turf courses or around tight turns.  Rumor has it Belmont’s turns are rather loose (isn’t that the opposite of tight) and it’s 100 dry degrees.  This guy could be very dangerous.  #6 Viscount Nelson is a European turf horse.  That’s all that needs to be said.  He’s on the ticket.  #7 Prince Will I Am could be hurt by the dry 100 degrees as he prefers give in the green.  I’m a big fan of his either way.  #9 Straight Story will most likely strike the lead at the top of the stretch in this race.  He’ll have to hold off the closers to collect the money.  (If he fails to hold off the closers, but decides to steal the money after the race, he’ll need to grow hands.)  Castellano is very familiar with him and the far outside draw is perfect.

In Race 11, the Grade 1 Belmont, what can I say?  I’m going to single Animal Kingdom.  There’s no reason to leave the jungle (aka jump off this train) now.  The distance will be better for him, Johnny V. knows Big Sandy like the back of his hand, and AK’s last work was reportedly very “King of the Animals” like.  Animal Kingdom will win the Belmont – you can bet on it.  (No really, you actually can bet on it.  Just show up on Saturday – or even Friday for advanced wagering – and bet on him.  Just don’t bet too much because I don’t want to see 3-5!) 

Have a great Belmont Day.  Best of luck at the windows if you so choose to wager a dollar or two.  I’m going to drive east until I reach the beach – or run into a detour.  Seriously.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Sunday 

Race 1 – I can’t believe how stupid and lame I was not to have picked and played 13-1 winner Ishikawa.  I put way too much time into concocting my own super-secret pace figure formula to have ignored the clear speed of the party.  And to make matters even worse, I was fully aware of how big a drop the gelding really was taking from a Parx starter race that was won with a final figure substantially higher that the lifetime best of any rival he was facing here save for the counterfeit, New York-dropdown odds-on favorite.  And just look at trainer Derek Ryan’s huge ROI with horses off mini-layoffs.  I stink!

Race 2 – Winning trainer Gregg Sacco’s stretch-out of Innisfree following three races off the bench in an old-school 37 days was right out of the textbook of the late, all-time handicapping great author Tom Ainslie (aka: Dick Carter).  Go back and read the master – many of the tried-and-true theories still apply in the modern racing world.  Of course, if he still was around, the crusty pedagogue would no doubt pedantically and profanely paddle me paternally for failing to put Innisfree in my top three.

Race 3 – Ghost Black was the seventh horse to have raced – to some degree – against the extreme, inside speed bias on May 15 and already return to win.  Overmatched off a layoff in a very deep maiden special last out despite losing in a maiden claimer in his last start, the gelding was putting blinkers on here for the appropriate drop and switching to the barn’s go-to rider.  Note trainer Patrick Biancone’s percentages and ROI second off a layoff, blinkers on, and with Joe Bravo.  All I can say is that my pick was a vet scratch.

Race 4 – Whoever said you can’t teach a middle-aged trainer new tricks?  Juan Serey had no exacta finishes off a layoff of longer than 46 days in 2010 and indeed specialized in quick returns with five exacta fillers coming back in eight days or less.  Well Serey, after Back Pocket Money’s score here, now this meet has a 5-1 win off a 218-day break, an 11-1 score off a mini-respite of 52 days, and a second-place finish at 10-1 off a 191-day layoff.  What can Serey teach an old handicapper who didn’t select his horse?

Race 5 – I actually made a good pick here in 6-1 runner-up Mighty Score, who just happened to run smack into one of the sharpest $15,000 claimers in the country in 3/5 Duffy’s Tavern.  One thing I have done right today is avoid picking shipping New York sprinters without demonstrated, small-oval front-end speed.  Eagle Strike here was a 2-1 loser and 3/5 Baatesh in Race 1 and 3/2 Hokusai in Race 4 also went down to defeat.

Race 6 – Phew!  Finally picked a winner.  Now I can stop going back to the drawing board and actually begin adding color to the stick figures.

All in all, I thought all went pretty darn well. 

About five minutes after I left the set on Saturday, I got a text message.  In addition to compliments and congratulations, the message mentioned two words: poise and confidence.  They were offered as two of the more important qualities of on-air success. 

Though I was already feeling pretty good about myself coming off what I deemed a successful TVG debut, the message actually made me feel even better.  There are a lot of qualities that I either don’t have or feel I need to improve.  But poise and confidence…I got those!!

And that brings me to the thesis of this blog: To all the parents out there with young children, or soon to be parents with children coming in the future, make sure you enroll them is athletics.  Whether it be baseball, soccer, football – anything to put them on a team and in “pressurized” situations. 

People that I work with now ask me every now and again how I remain so even-keeled and un-flustered.  When I tell them the answer they always make fun of me but it’s the truth.

“When I was 10 years old, I was pitching in tournament-decided games against some of the best Little League team’s in the state of New Jersey.  Compared to that, talking into a microphone or running a handicapping contest is nothing.”

Maybe I’m just one of those people who don’t get nervous.  But I truly believe that my 10+ years of playing baseball – and some soccer – taught me the most important of qualities.  Things like leadership, a solid work ethic, and the will to be the best.

Best of all, I learned to have poise and confidence.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Friday

Race 1 – Royal Bern leveraged her inside post and soon cleared under aggressive handling by jockey Carlos Marquez.  The pair set live splits for the class level and on the day and never were threatened.  Marquez is renowned on this circuit for his signature late rallies, but also is excellent when he does choose to ride more energetically early in races.  Versatility makes a good jockey even better.

Race 2 – 3^rd-finishing, at 29-1, Irish Cove was yet another signal that veteran trainer Charlie Harvatt could be set for his strongest local meeting in years.

            5^th-finishing, at 99-1, Sconce ran another bias-hindered, better-than-it-looked race.  She just needs to find a weak enough race, somewhere, to exploit her hidden form.

Race 3 – The absurd four scratches from the original seven entrants were clear indication that no one thought they could beat 2/5 favorite Lord Chelsie.  But credit runner-up Hava Cigar and jockey Joe Bravo for at least trying.  Bravo’s mount was slow to find his stride and clearly green, but rather than just settling for a grinding place run, the jockey vigorously urged his mount on the turn.  Once in middle-move mode, Hava Cigar’s inner light bulb clicked on and the colt’s action became synchronized.  He was outkicked by the winner, but Hava Cigar will be a better horse from the experience and the Bravo-inspired education-by-strong-urging.

Race 4 – Her trip and pace set-up were near perfect, but winner Witch’s Orchard really can run on turf.  She has quickish, classic daisy-cutting action that allows her to combine handiness with acceleration.  Dam sire Real Courage, by Man O’ War descendent In Reality, was an explosive, seven-to-eight-furlong turf specialist. 

Race 8 – I don’t think that every jockey on the grounds would have won this race on Bombast, but Francisco Maysonett obviously was one who did.  The gelding looked beaten in traffic late on the turn, but Maysonett never gave up and worked hard until he finally got a response.  From the mid-claiming level on down, it’s often about will on the part of both horse and rider.

Race 9 – Winning jockey Elvis Trujillo, on Wild Bout Tiffany, showed why he and Bravo are neck-and-neck for being the best around at riding the one post in sprints with a horse who won’t be on the early lead.

Race 11 – I don’t think that every jockey on the grounds would have managed a dead heat for 3^rd on Pure Irish, but Maysonett, again, was one who did.  His mount was passed multiple times by lower-odds Garden Tour, but horse and rider never gave up and tied their tormenter at the wire.  Some jockeys can’t wait to stand up, Maysonett rides right through the finish line and is a great friend of exotics bettors and owners – to whom minor awards are critical.  (Note: International superstar jockey Frankie Dettori recently was suspended 10 days – at the peak of the European season – for failing to ride out his mount in the English Oaks and costing bettors and connections a third-place finish.  It’s time similar statements were made by stewards in the United States.)

Saturday

Race 1 – I have no idea what was going on with 4^th-finishing Best Jazz.  He probably ran the best race of his life last time when he battled speedy sprinter Bombast (who repeated at a higher level on Friday) and held for second at six furlongs.  On the stretch-out here, he was slow and then anchored out of the gate from the one post (he broke from the rail last out as well), rated under restraint back to last behind slow splits, and still managed to finish decently when finally unleashed.  And his pull up was vigorous as well.

Race 2 – Fly Straight’s win here clearly illustrated how underrated trainer Trish Farro’s horses usually improve into their form cycles and with less rest than those conditioned by other modern trainers.  The gelding was dropping slightly while third-time form cycle and off a race following a particularly sharp workout that was perhaps a tad too close to his May 14 effort.  And Farro knows her jockeys as well – all of her five local exacta finishers have been ridden by either Omar Figueroa and Angel Serpa, two of the more underrated reinsmen on the grounds. (Though the phenomenally-improved latter is on the cusp of stardom and won’t be a secret for much longer!)

Race 4 – Runner-up Team has talent, but must learn to maneuver and respond to her rider’s commands.  Conversely, her jockeys need to understand that she’s not a motorcycle, either.

Race 5 – Moonhanger spit out tag team pressure from a talented entry and drew off with strong and efficient strides.  This colt is a legitimate graded stakes talent and an under-the-media-glare 3-year-old up-and-comer.  4^th-finishing Southern Ridge has been rated into near submission in many of his recent starts.  It just doesn’t seem to be working for a colt with stakes ability.  Perhaps his multiple gears can be put to maximum use while rambling on the lead.

Race 6 – A superb duel, ease back, and perfectly-timed counter-attack ride by Serpa on winner Go Joe Go, who for previous jockeys needed to wing on the lead to be effective.

Race 8 – The rail post proved disastrous for Island Time and jockey Carlos Marquez.  They tried to hedge their bets by sitting mid-pack and staying inside in a closely-bunched, slow-paced field.  Then the turn came and they were pinched to oblivion.  She and he who hesitate get beat in these situations when they don’t pick their penchant right off the bat.  The elbow and the quick turn going 5 ½ furlongs on turf here dictate that the rail post make a decision about sending or taking back virtually immediately.   

When somebody plays a 2-horse exacta box and runs second and third behind a horse who wins by open lengths…and then proceeds to tell you how they were SOOOO close to winning.  Excuse me, it’s not like you boxed the winner with the horse nosed out for second.  You failed to include the winning horse.  That’s pretty far off in my book.

When somebody whines and complains about how hot it is, how the humidity is too much to take, and how gross it is to even walk outside…after crying all winter about how cold it is and how much they miss the summer.  You can’t have it both ways!  Either zip it or move to San Diego.

When somebody mentions how “I/we should have had that”…after a race.  What’s the point of seeing the superfecta payout and saying “oh, if the four of us would have boxed each of our top picks we would have hit that.”  Would you ever have made that bet in a million years?  I think not! [On a personal note, my family's top picks in the KY Derby were: Animal Kingdom (me), Nehro (dad), Mucho Macho Man (brother), Shackleford (mom).]  Hmmm.

When you buy a “seedless” watermelon, cut it open, and voila…SEEDS!!!  What is up with that?!?!?!?  Outrageous.  We stepped foot on the moon in 1969 – we can’t competently follow through on our promise to scientifically eradicate all seeds from a piece of fruit!

When it’s 95 degrees where you live and you decide to go to the beach…only to discover it’s windy, cold and miserable at the shore.  Oh, that on-shore breeze is annoying…and not good for fishing either.

And lastly, when somebody shies away from making decisions and leaves that responsibility up to others for the simple reason that he/she is afraid to be wrong.  In life – whether it’s handicapping, accounting, or bullfighting – you’re going to be wrong sometimes.  Some of us are going to be wrong a lot.  But that shouldn’t stop you – and certainly shouldn’t scare you – from making decisions.  Imagine if, with 5.3 seconds left in an NBA playoff game, Michael Jordan thought about what would happen if he missed his last-second shot, got scared, and told the coach to draw up a play for Luc Longley.  Imagine if, while walking up to the 18^th green at Augusta National, Tiger Woods thought about what would happen if he misses his 5-foot putt for birdie, gets scared and instead lets his caddy take a whack at it with the flat stick.  Imagine if, after reading the script, Val Kilmer thought about what would happen to his career if he “starred” in the movie Mission to Mars, gets scared, and …actually, in hindsight, he probably should have thought about that one!  The point is, all of us are going to be wrong at some point in our lives.  That’s not something that you should be afraid of.  Have some guts and make a decision.  After all, if you’re not wrong, you’re going to be right.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories  

On this past Sunday, someone pointed out that on a recent Shades Off I had misidentified the race number in which a certain horse was entered.  I must have had trouble seeing my notes that day, but I did manage to spot some other things on the Memorial Day weekend.  Did you see that…

In Sunday’s 5^th race, jockey Paco Lopez and 2^nd-finishing Il Divo got disqualified and placed 3^rd for drifting out in the stretch?  The immensely-talented Lopez might be excused for working hard with his left-handed stick in an all-out effort to win, but what was he thinking in the very next race when he tried to force his way through a too-tight hole on a raging-with-run Stand Proud?  The pair were stopped cold, had to back out and alter course, and come again.  Luckily, for them, they were good enough to get up for the win anyway.  But would the same decision been made if the disqualification in the previous race hadn’t happened?  I don’t know.

Artisanal, Sunday’s Little Silver winner, did a basketball-like jump-stop when shifting lanes and slicing between horses in deep stretch?  The nimble filly switched briefly to her left lead, but then – once clear of traffic – hopped deftly back to her right and exploded to the hoop…erh, the wire.  Check it out on replay (available free at monmouthpark.com), it’s a really subtle but cool example of brilliant equine athleticism.

Jockey Chuck C. Lopez was riding hard right through the finish line and just got up for 2^nd in Monday’s 3^rd race aboard Savannah Bay?  The photo finish image was striking with Lopez riding low on his mount’s withers and pumping strongly.

Chuck C. Lopez came right back with the race-riding masterpiece of the meet so far on board Thisonesforelmo in Monday’s 5^th race.  The jockey lovingly nurtured the gelding’s front-end speed by doling it only slowly in small doses and forcing the two immediate pace pressers to react like yo-yos.  When closer Vow To Honor rallied up the rail, Lopez used his underrated strength and expertly kept his partner on a tight, taut leash EXACTLY one path off the fence.  This forced his stretch rival to concede the game of “I Dare You To” and lose all chance.  Lopez rode three other horses besides his own!  Watch the replay (available free at monmouthpark.com) – he really did! 

A pair of strapping young gentlemen will be throwing out winners to all in attendance tomorrow at the in-house seminar.  The world-famous, TVG superstar Tom Cassidy will be joined by…well, me.  Should be fun.

I’ve fished two consecutive Mondays in sub-60 degree temperatures and rain/fog.  Thankfully that weather pattern is over – and let’s hope it’s for good.  It is summer after all (at least unofficially).

The Met Mile is tomorrow at Belmont Park.  I know there aren’t many true superstars left in racing this year, but it appears a handful of the more talented ones are signed on here.  (It is a Grade 1 race after all.)  I’m back off Tackleberry in the race, which makes him a total lock.  I played against him in his three wins at GP this winter and was on him for his loss last out at CT.  I’m against him again tomorrow – you can start running to the windows.  Maybe Tizway???

This weekend Monmouth Park hosted the two-day Munchmobile Hot Dog Showdown.  Today for lunch I had a turkey and provolone wrap with lettuce, tomato and a little mayo.  Eating barbeque for the fourth day in a row seemed like it would be a little much!

In the couple of weeks since the blog listing the horses that made my Equibase Virtual Stable this winter in Gulfstream, two of the horses – Desert Sage and Beachcombing – have run close seconds in stakes races.  The former had to deal with wet turf and a very slow pace in front of her, the latter was a little slow to start yesterday and was facing a rival once compared by his trainer to Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom. 

This Saturday, I took in about a half an hour of the morning works from beneath the TVG tent adjacent to the winner’s circle.  I have no way of knowing specific names, but trainer Gregg Sacco has some REALLY nice looking animals.  Look for his runners to start improving second and third times off the layoff.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Saturday

Race 1 – Expected pace presence Longlastinglove bobbled and broke awkwardly, was taken in hand, resented it, made the best middle move of the race, and flattened out through the stretch.  As a result of her woes, favored Boom Town Sally was able to clear and relax on an easy lead over a strongly speed-biased racing surface.  The winner, however, scored with her ears pricked and looked like she was ready for more.

Race 2 – Runner-up Handfulofdiamonds was yet another fresh horse to run well for trainer Russell Cash.

Race 3 – Classy-returnee Partyallnightlong deftly maneuvered off the rail and took up attack position on speedy Mississippi Man’s flank before putting that rival away at will and professionally holding sway.  The winner was sharp rather than brilliant, but trainer Ed Broome’s stock invariably improves into its form cycles.

Race 4 – Returnee Shoe Shine Man, off an especially strong final work, was the second layoff winner of the meeting for trainer Kevin Sleeter, who started slowly last year.  Sleeter is yet another New Jersey-based stalwart who apparently has used the reduced number of racing dates as an impetus to having his barn ready as early as possible.  Shoe Shine Man is a tall gelding who’s surprisingly nimble on his feet for such a long-legged individual.  On pedigree, frame, and style he has the look of a high-potential, New Jersey-bred router.

Race 5 – Ever Always retained all her blazing – and effortless – early foot despite coming off an almost two-year layoff.  What the now 5-year-old mare gained was physical development and maturity.  She’s an absolute Amazanian beast!  Now she has to hold together and learn to change leads consistently.  Even on the wrong lead through the stretch, however, I thought she was moving better than ever and her stride is plenty scopey-enough for a possible stretch out.

Race 6 – Fiddlers Patriot is the real deal at 5 1/2 furlongs through seven furlongs on the turf.  He kept up early with true New Jersey sprint speed and then powered home classily.  Cutting back to five panels for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Churchill, he might not be battling on the lead, but he proved here he can be plenty tactical at any distance.

Race 7 – Firster Addie’s Surprise disdainfully busted the bias with a steady, wide run from off the pace.  Grass-bred on both sides with a turf stride as well, it would be no surprise if she ultimately proved best on the lawn.

Race 8 – Returnee runner-up Tune Me In was taken back here and ran well, but I still believe his best game is winging on the lead.  Still, versatility is an invaluable life skill.

Race 9 – Repeater-on-the-raise Our Year continued her dramatic improvement – especially from a pace figure standpoint.  Yes, she was aided by a bias, but she did engage in an all-out, five-furlong duel with the second choice and still drew out through the stretch.  Is there a stakes race for her in six weeks?

Race 10 – Odds-on Crimson China got up, but he couldn’t have had a better pace set-up.  I wasn’t awed and still think his best game is going at least nine furlongs.  He once was mentioned in the same breath as stablemate Animal Kingdom.  I don’t see it.

Race 11 – Nothing could tell the tale of two tracks (the 2010 Monmouth dirt and the 2011 surface) better than Dabnabit’s scintillating speed-show here.  Last May, the horse ran a similarly superb race only to be nailed late by Love Who (who’s in for $20,000 claiming on Monday).  On Saturday, Dabnabit blew away monster state-breds Joey P. and Unwritten.  What a difference a year – and two starkly contrasting biases – can make!

Race 12 – Much improved also-rans Taperrific and Change for Gold can really run on the turf.  Just not against each other.  Their duel here ruined both, but each one has a live chance at Saturday’s level when the course favors speed and the pace rivals are less committed.

I guess we could talk about the American Idol and/or Dancing with the Stars finales.  We could talk about the Bruins/Lightning NHL playoff series.  We could even talk about how I lit up the Rutgers University Golf Course on Tuesday.

Let’s not go there.  Let’s instead discuss two VERY important issues.  The first is what you guys and gals think about the blog and anything new you would like to see introduced.  The other is food.

Although Brad and I do take a little bit of satisfaction being able to write freely about our thoughts and feelings on Thoroughbred racing, the bottom line is the Monmouth Park blog is for all of you.  Informative and entertaining – that’s our goal.  Brad and I always wonder, however, are we accomplishing that goal?  Today I ask you faithful Monmouth Park blog readers – are we accomplishing that goal? 

Please leave us a comment and let us know.  What do you think we’re doing right?  What do we do that you can’t stand?  What would you like us to talk about more?  (Which of my jokes do you not find funny?) 

Since the blog is for you, the only way we can tailor it more to your liking – or more importantly tailor it away from your disliking – is for you to tell us.  If you would rather email me directly about anything, feel free to do that at bskirka@njsea.com. 

Ok, now about food.  This weekend, Monmouth Park hosts its first food festival of 2011. 

It’s about time. 

The various menus for the Munchmobile Hot Dog include such mouth-watering items as pulled pork and brisket sandwiches from Chop Shop BBQ, sausage on a stick from A-maize-ing Roast, and Zeppoles from Greenlight Food Service.  There’s even a grilled peanut butter and bacon sandwich and bananas and strawberries on a stick (with chocolate drizzle) from Southern Smoke Cajun & Caribbean BBQ.

Oh, this is going to be a fun weekend!

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories  

One of the racing game’s most under-utilized angles is the close scrutinizing of entire race cards on big days – when the fields of all types of races invariably are deep and especially strong – for tidbits that might prove useful on talent-thinner regular afternoons.  Here’s a review of this Saturday’s Preakness day action at Pimlico:

Race 1 – 5^th-finishing Issues And Answers lacked the seasoning to overcome the one post in a competitive field, turn traffic, and racing on a dull rail for the first half of his journey.  With his pedigree and pace figures, he’ll be hard to wear down off a stretch out.

Race 2 – 3^rd-finishing Say Now, much improved over the winter, was aggressively spotted off the bench and ran super sharply despite having bias, race-flow, and multiple trip woes.  His late-developing pedigree has underrated grass influences on both sides and could prove useful at the upcoming Colonial Downs meeting.

Race 3 – 5^th-finishing Gresham Palace showed a subtle but sharp turn of foot before flattening a bit late when overmatched in his first route of the form cycle while trying to get traction on a turf course mislabeled as good but actually yielding.  Weaker competition and, possibly, slightly shorter distances could add up to a productive Colonial season.

Race 4 – Overmatched Lily Quatorze’s last place finish, beaten 23 ½ lengths, can be completely excused given her lack of recent activity, racing against a double bias, and disputing an insane pace with a graded stakes quality sprinter.  She’ll be very dangerous when realistically spotted.

Race 5 – 4^th-finishing Cagey Act needed this start, is better going a half-furlong farther, and is well suited stylistically for Colonial turf sprints.

Race 6 – Runner-up Chipshot ran far too good to lose repulsing all but the final challenge while pinned to a dull rail throughout and coming back on relatively short rest for the second straight time.  He could explode next out with more time between starts.

            4^th-finishing No Easy Answer was competitive despite being a pure router.  His two-turn debut, somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic region, is awaited anxiously, but – come to think of it – an extended one-turn at Belmont might not be so bad, either.

Race 7 – Hanging, 4^th-finishing Lil Bit O’ Fun is tactical and explosive, but the brevity of his brush implies that seven turf furlongs at Belmont could prove his best game.

Race 8 – Offspring of the sire Toccet generally are as game and genuine as their father.  Ventana won yet another photo after fighting off tag-team pressure and being pinned to a dull rail during the stretch drive.

Race 9 – Off turf, eight-and-a-half furlongs, making early moves, and slow-paced contests are not runner-up Desert Sage’s optimum circumstances.  Give her more pace and/or more distance and she’s Grade 2 caliber at the very least.

Race 10 – New York-bred, 3^rd-finishing returnee Icabad Crane learned how to win over the winter and is ready to score against the open-level, graded-caliber big boys.  Unfortunately, here he conceded recency, pace, and trip to his key rivals, but still managed to finish best of all by far.  He shouldn’t be afraid of a less-weighty and longer-distance Belmont spot.  Do they still run the Suburban?

Race 11 – Promising Slews Answer disappointed with his poor 5^th-place showing in a weak Grade 2, but deserves a chance to make amends negotiating firmer ground around Belmont’s forgiving bends.

Race 13 – 5^th-finishing Count To Seven took his obligatory turf shot and should be well set up for a return to dirt.  His sweeping stride is ideally suited by Colonial’s Belmont-style main track.

There are no “good losses.”  The phrase “you tried your best” should never be said to anyone over the age of five.  And “well, at least you went down fighting” just covers up the fact that you lost.

HOWEVER, in the rarest of occasions, during the fullest of moons, and when every single planet aligns, positive can come from negative.

Maybe the predicted end of the world had something to do with it, but the runner-up finish by Animal Kingdom in the Preakness was one of the best losing performances I have ever seen.  Only Zenyatta’s Breeders’ Cup Classic comes to mind as more impressive.

Around Pimlico’s far turn, Animal Kingdom was screwed.  Racing way out of it early, he had an equine New York City traffic jam in front of him.  How “The King of the Animals Jr.” and jockey John Velazquez were able to even get up for second still amazes me. 

Along with a few others in the MP Publicity office, I’ve been steering the Animal Kingdom bandwagon for a long time now.  I cashed on him in the Spiral at Turfway.  I made a decent score with him beneath the Twin Spires.  I cashed no ticket on the race yesterday, but Animal Kingdom’s race in the Preakness impressed me way more than any of his previous wins.

Yesterday in defeat Animal Kingdom moved from a beast to a deity.  Future competition – dirt, turf or synthetic – beware.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Saturday

Race 1 – 7-1 winner Our Concerto was a colt in both my sets of past performances, but apparently was gelded before his first start of 2011 because that’s how he’s described in the result chart I’m now glancing at.  He got away with soft fractions on a speed-biased track, but has a pedigree screaming upside.  Still, Our Concerto might need a race or two in faster-paced winners’ races before he’s ready to move forward.

Race 3 – Filly Green’s Hard Ten had no chance against the bias versus some speedy males.  Her big, wide move into the turn, however, bodes well for a return to filly competition on a more even surface.

Race 5 – Rockport Picture showed some serious physical development since when last she raced and made two serious moves against a strong grain and into live splits.  An inner-more post, please!

Race 7 – The performance of the day was turned in by Perfect Embrace, a recent Bob DiBona claim for $30,000.  She overcame the bias and received no pace help at all, yet still blew two well-bred Pletcher trainees off the track.  Onward and upward!

Race 8 – David K fought hard on the dirt against pace and bias.  Watch out when he gets back on grass because his Florida turf efforts were getting sharper and sharper.

Race 9 – Returnees Believe In Dancing and Double Desert got just what they needed.  The former is a sprinter while the latter likely prefers routing and could benefit from some additional sharpening.

I’m getting so sick of:

Handicapping dilettantes attempting to apply deep trade craftsmanship to the Triple Crown races.  Their problem is they lack the expertise and instinctual wisdom that comes from experience gained in actually doing that kind of work every single day.  Witness how some folks have denied the clear conclusion that there was an outside closing bias at Chiurchill on Derby day.  Nearly as absurd was the outcry about the so-called “ridiculously slow” early pace of the Derby when, in reality, it was only moderately below par based on how ALL the Churchill two-turn fractions came up on both Oaks Friday (The Oaks pace actually was blazing!) and Derby Saturday.  I didn’t have Shackleford at 12-1 in the Preakness – I didn’t think he could put away Flashpoint and still win – but I’m sure plenty of professionals and SKILLED, HARD-WORKING amateurs scored out betting against the half-baked misperceptions of handicapping pretenders.

Listening to people who only run their horses with at least five or six weeks between starts talking about what’s wrong with the game or complaining about what others have to say on the subject.

Listening to people describing a horse’s absence as related to “a little problem”, “an undisclosed injury” or some other arrogantly non-specific or condescendingly non-forthcoming reason.  How dare they!  Betting dollars fund every aspect of this industry and the folks doing the wagering have every right and expectation of knowing EXACTLY what the physical status is of high profile horses who never will run for a claiming tag.

“Around 6 pm” is way to vague for me.  How are we supposed to work that into our schedules?  If, for say, we knew the world was definitely ending at 6:08 pm on Saturday, Pimlico could speed up post times to run the Preakness – just as many tracks do with a thunderstorm baring down.  I mean could “around 6 pm” be as late as 6:45 pm?  That means a lot in term of dinner.  With a $50 handicapping contest here on Saturday, I probably won’t be eating dinner until late.  There’s no way my world is ending on an empty stomach and I’d love to know exactly what time I have to have dinner by on Saturday.  The vagueness of this end of the world stuff is just so inconsiderate of other people.

Anyway, I’m going on the assumption that the world will not end of Saturday – or at least that we’ll get through the entire Pimlico card before the shaking begins.  Here are a couple of thoughts as I look through the late 50-cent Pick 4:

Race 9 – The Grade 3 Gallorette – If you read the blog on Sunday, you know I like #7 Desert Sage.  She absolutely blew me away in her win two back at Gulfstream and her most recent win was also impressive as she rallied from well back vs. a crawl of a pace.  I would have liked to see jockey Jose Lezcano make the trip south to ride, however.

Race 10 – The Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Memorial – #5 Icabad Crane interests me here.  I was going to actually bet on him at a much bigger price in the Grade 3 Alysheba at Churchill on the KY Oaks undercard two weeks ago but he scratched.  He’s won two in a row, has a win over the track, and is trained by Graham Motion.  For a huge longshot underneath how about #4 No Advantage?  He’s run in this race twice, winning it two years ago and finishing second last year behind Blame – yeah, the same Blame who beat Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  He was 24-1 last year and should be about the same Saturday.

Race 11 – The Grade 2 Dixie – Question: Where are all the good turf horses? Answer: It better be Europe because there aren’t too many in America.  With the reported scratch of #3 Grand Rapport (and even if he wasn’t scratching), how does #4 Paddy O’Prado not win this race?  The only answer: If he’s only ready to run to 80% of his ability and #6 Slews Answer jumps up and runs to 120% of his.  It’s a sure-fire jinx, but Paddy O’Prado should win this race in his sleep.

Race 12 – The Grade 1 Preakness – #11 Animal Kingdom and #9 Mucho Macho Man are must uses for me (as they were in the Derby).  #8 Dance City is my new shooter.  If he can relax, I think he can sit a perfect trip right in behind #4 Flashpoint and #5 Shackleford, and his last race – the Arkansas Derby has come up really strong in hindsight.  The big question mark for me is what to do with #10 Dialed In.  He’s eligible for a $5.5 million bonus if he wins this race – so, does that mean his 8^th-place Derby finish was some sort of prep or does that 8^th-place finish mean he’s just not fast enough?  My gut tells me the latter, but my brain reads Nicholas P. Zito as the trainer and can’t totally throw him out.  As of now, my plan is to try to be alive in the late Pick 4 to Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man, Dance City and Dialed In and then I’ll box the first three in an exacta box. 

Best of luck on Preakness Day!!  We’ll be back on Sunday provided our planet is still in existence. 

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories

Opening Day’s inside bias evolved into a full-blown inside-speed bias on Sunday.

Horses who were compromised included: Asylum (Race 1), Smoke ‘N Review (Race 2), All In No Outs and Freight Forward (Race 3), Quincy Lee (Race 5), Themanintheglass (Race 6), Joey Whispers and grass-bred Ravello Storm (Race 7), Reprieve (Race 10) and Gold Bargain (Race 12).

With the Preakness coming up this Saturday, let’s ruminate about the Triple Crown and the possibility of A Triple Crown. 

• He’s no Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Big Brown or Smarty Jones.  No, he’s Animal Kingdom and at a comparable point in the trilogy, he has a more legitimate chance – based on talent, stamina and competition – than all of the above did combined.  Astrology and Mr. Commons await him in Baltimore and, perhaps more concerning to him and his connections, Alternation and, hopefully, Brilliant Speed will have dates with him in New York.  But Animal Kingdom is a world-class talent and while he still ultimately might be better on turf or synthetic, make no mistake – he will continue to improve on dirt with more racing and added distance.  His biggest issue will be handling the two-week turnaround for the Preakness and, if applicable, the subsequent three-week respite leading into the Belmont – all while facing fresher, albeit less talented, rivals who’ve specifically targeted his chance at history.  Both Animal Kingdom and trainer H. Graham Motion have formulized spacing races relatively far apart.  How both equines and humans deal with the pressure and stress of being knocked out of their comfort zone is a prime test of greatness.  Bring it on!
• Speaking of Alternation, what a difference a big, sweeping track can make for a big, long-striding colt.  In the recent Peter Pan, he was handier and more tactical than ever before (both traits are underrated keys in a race like the Belmont) while inexorably gobbling up ground though the long Big Sandy stretch.  Alternation is primed to fire the best shot of his life on the second Saturday in June and is bred better than the vast majority of his potential rivals to stay 12 furlongs.
• And speaking of Brilliant Speed, his Derby effort was absolutely super.  He angled out early and was asked to make a quick, legitimate move.  This allowed him to avoid kickback, pass some dead wood, and secure better position going into the first turn.  Still, only a very talented and long-winded colt would then have been able to sustain a longer, second move through the final five-eighths of a 10-furlong race.  Brilliant Speed clearly would have outstayed anybody but the winner had the race been another quarter mile longer.
• Nehro solidified his credentials as the second ranked 3-year-old in the country with his superb, premature-move-hindered placing in the Derby.  Personally, I wouldn’t run him in the Preakness, either, and might also be inclined to pass the Belmont as well.  He’s stepped up considerably in a short period of time and has the overall look of a colt who would benefit from a period of physical and mental re-charging. 
• Regardless of what the future holds for Nehro, his trainer, Steve Asmussen, will have a rising star for the second half of the 2011 season in a colt named Gentle Tap.  Check out the replay of his maiden victory in Race 13 at Churchill on Derby day.  Note how rapidly Gentle Tap goes from nowhere to contention (You really have to pay attention because it happens late on the second turn at an angle that makes it hard to appreciate from the perspective of the regular pan shot.) and then continues strongly to the wire.  Remember him at Saratoga!
• Why all this shock and amazement about how far back early Dialed In was in the Derby?  That’s how he runs all his races.  When the field’s twice the size, the margin he’s behind early is going to be twice as large (Remember Zenyatta in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic?).  This is just common sense – or Handicapping 101.  Oh, but I forgot.  Many of those wondering about this also were of the belief that Animal Kingdom was trainer Motion’s second string behind Toby’s Corner.  Hopefully, they still believe that one and are planning to back ALL their opinions at future pari-mutuel windows.
• The Churchill rail was a bit dull on Oaks Friday and duller still, if not downright dead, on Derby day.  Similar conditions existed for both Breeders’ Cup cards last November.  In all these instances, the larger than usual fields and often-aggressive early scenarios accentuated the prevailing conditions.  There’s nothing wrong with this – variables in horse racing are a beautiful thing – as long as biases are created by the ebb-and-flow of natural conditions in an outdoor game.  However, there is a problem if human over-reaction and over-compensation creates a polar-opposite playing field next time around.
• There’s been plenty of talk about the so-called “very slow” early pace of the Derby.  Check out the fractions in all the two-turn Churchill routes on Oaks Friday and Derby Saturday.  Relatively speaking, the Oaks pace was extremely quick and the Derby pace, while certainly not fast, was soft by just a couple of notches.  (Incidentally, Churcill route paces were similarly deflated on 2010 Breeders’ Cup weekend as well.)
• Finally, I don’t get why so many folks have a problem with what Barry Irwin said post Derby when asked a very good, but totally unexpected question.  In the flush of the biggest score of his life, Irwin told the truth as he saw it.  In fact, in recent weeks, I’ve had two other horse owners basically tell me the exact same thing.  The good of the game isn’t – and never has been – served by happy talk and pointless platitudes.  Frank discourse on the industry’s biggest stage is the first step towards actually solving problems.  (And racing does have a few of them, doesn’t it?)  So far, I’ve heard plenty of folks decrying Irwin’s candor, but precious little give and take about the actual merits of his statements.  The guy breeds and buys the kind of classic racehorses – with the emphasis on RACE – that we see all too little of in the United Stakes’ world of market-driven commercial breeding and 2-year-old in training sales.  He’s doing something right and deserves a fair hearing on substance rather that knee-jerk attacks on his style.

I discovered a lot during my time in Hallandale Beach this winter.  I found one of the best fish markets probably in world.  I found the driving range used in the movie “There’s Something About Mary.”  And I learned not all #1 attachments for haircut buzzers are made the same – sorry no pictures available.

I also added to my Equibase Virtual Stable on many occasions.  Racing at Gulfstream Park is home to the best of the best, and below are some horses that really caught my eye this winter:

Beachcombing – On January 23, I walked out to take a look at the turf runners for the eighth race.  I was interested in the race favorite – a horse named Beachcombing.  It would be an understatement to say the Chad Brown-trainee came into the walking ring on his toes.  He was majestic looking and strutted his stuff for the crowd to see.  Beachcombing ran a tremendous race to finish second that day behind Data Link (I’ll get to him later).  In two subsequent synthetic tries, Beachcombing finished fourth behind Animal Kingdom (I think I’ve heard of him) and was second at Keeneland in a race rained off the grass.  When this 3-year-old gets back on turf, watch out!

Caixa Eletronica – It’s not very often you hear trainer Todd Pletcher’s names on the “claimed by” end of a transaction.  So when Pletcher and owner Mike Repole decided to put up $62,500 for 6-year-old Caixa Eletronica on March 9 at Gulfstream, that was a pretty big deal.  The move has already paid dividends as the horse won Belmont’s Grade 3 Westchester at 10-1 in his first start for new connections.  Look for Caixa Eletronica to be equally competitive in the Met Mile and those seven furlong graded stakes races at Saratoga.

Christmas for Liam – This guy might be a little on the fragile side (note four layoff lines in his 6-race career), but when he’s healthy, he’s a seriously-talented animal.  His two races at Gulfstream this winter were monstrous, but was done in last out when dueling through wicked fractions with Grade 1 winner Haynesfield in the Westchester.  If he remains healthy, he’ll be a graded stakes winner by the end of the year.

Data Link – Perhaps the most-talented, under-publicized horse of the Gulfstream Park meet was Data Link.  This guy won both of his South Florida starts, defeating Beachcombing (see above) in one and Longhunter (see below) in the other.  The Shug McGaughey-trained colt was rumored to be pointing towards the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland this spring but didn’t show up in the entries.  He also shows no works since March which likely indicates some sort of injury, but if he can make it back to 100% this year, he’ll be a turf force to be reckoned with.

Desert Sage – This 4-year-old lost by 36 lengths in a four-horse race for amateur riders in her last start in native England before coming to the U.S. and switching to the barn of trainer Chad Brown.  Her American debut was nothing short of astounding.  Off a 6-month layoff, Desert Sage sat in last (of 12) early and absolutely catapulted past the field on the far turn.  It was a WOW! performace to say the least and she was an instant addition to my virtual stable.  A month later – after Keeneland opened and Brown and jockey Jose Lezcano headed north – Desert Sage rallied to win another allowance race at Gulfstream despite sitting well off dawdling fractions.  Lezcano shipped down to ride and Brown was there to saddle.  (Again, this was just an allowance race).  This horse is for real.

Hothersal – This Seth Benzel-trainee broke his maiden in ultra-impressive fashion on Feb. 6 at Gulfstream, finishing like an absolute bull.  (That’s a good thing.)  His talent is obvious (note he was second first-time out behind Data Link – see above – who went on to win two straight), however, he has not been seen on the worktab since his 2-6-11 effort.  That’s not good, even though this horse is.

Longhunter – I guess it’s no surprise to see trainer Christophe Clement with a talented turf runner in his barn.  This 3-year-old burst onto the scene this winter at Gulfstream finishing second behind Data Link (see above) off a five-month layoff before winning an overnight stakes race with the utmost of ease (over next-out graded stakes winner and Kentucky Derby participant Derby Kitten).  In his Feb. 24 start, Longhunter was saddled by Clement.  “Isn’t that obvious,” you ask.  Normally on a weekday, Clement would leave the saddling duties up to one of his assistants.  The trainer’s presence – it’s about a 90-minute drive from Clement’s Payson Park winter headquarters to Gulfstream – clearly speaks volumes about his opinion of the horse’s abilities.  I’m jumping on this bandwagon early.  With Gio Ponti beginning to age, Longhunter may be the next Grade 1 runner for Team Clement.

Mobilizer – I’m a sucker for anything running on grass, trained by Roger Attfield.  Mobilizer caught my eye this winter as a physically-imposing animal with mucho talent.  Second in the Plate Trial and favorite in the $1 million Queens Plate last year on the Woodbine synthetic, this 4-year-old might be best of all on turf.  His lone GP race was strong off a nine-month layoff and he’s been training at Keeneland for the last month or so.  Maybe he’s getting ready for the Grade 3 Louisville at Churchill?

Parting Words – Sometimes you see a filly that is just flat-out physically bigger than her competition.  Obviously, Zenyatta was an example of that on a national level.  In her Feb. 2 start at Gulfstream Park, Parting Words was just larger than her competition – and in fact, turned in a very Zenyatta-like last-to-first stretch tour-de-force.  She had a rough trip two back and last time out rallied for third in a Grade 3 behind a filly turf monster in Winter Memories.  Maybe as a 3-year-old, Parting Words needs to grow into her body a little bit, but she clearly has loads of talent to work with.  She’ll probably be rallying late in stakes races throughout the summer.

Perfect Afleet – You can read above for my thoughts on trainer Roger Attfield which is why I wasn’t surprised at all to see this 5-year-old nearly break his maiden at first asking back in February.  There’s absolutely nothing wrong with the company he kept in those GP maiden turf events, although I think this horse needs more than the mile he ran last out.  Perhaps a 1 1/8 miles or more on that huge Woodbine turf course will do him some good.

Rattlesnake Bridge – His maiden-breaking score on Feb. 12 was far from a clinic on how to handle kickback or how to change leads in the stretch, but he got the job done anyway.  A month later, he made a nice run at Uncle Mo before settling for second.  It didn’t appear he was loving the slop last out in the Grade 2 Jerome, and as only a three-time starter he probably has some growing up to do anyway.  He’ll be a horse to keep an eye on in those 3-year-old stakes races later in the year, such as…I don’t know…The Haskell.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Every Monmouth racing season develops a character all its own, so here are some streaming musings on what’s been seen so far:

- In sharp contrast to 2010, the inside paths on Opening Day were good and outside-all-the-way movers were hard-pressed to be competitive.

- Some who were comprised include: Barely Nothing (Race 3), Kathleen’s Halo (Race 5), Primary Witness (Race 8) and Smooth Sailing (Race 9).

- Livin Large, 4^th in Race 6, made a big middle move against pace, bias and trip.  He was 38-1, will now be third off a layoff and second-time route this form cycle, and is better on turf.

- Taperrific, 3^rd at 45-1 in Race 7, continued gamely off the bench despite being hung wide and against the grain.  His sire-line and even-style say route and his career best speed figure was earned in his lone two-turn try when hard-used behind a stakes-quality winner.

- Delaware’s Own, 3^rd at 29-1 in Race 9, showed vastly improved speed and overall ability in his first start at age three.  If the dirt continues to play as it did opening weekend, he can have a big meeting.

- Candy Mine, 3^rd at 30-1 in Race 11, also has moved well forward, with lasix, as a sophomore.  He’s bred to route and can’t wait for the first New Jersey-bred maiden race around two turns.

- On Opening Day, six of a possible 22 exacta slots (no pun intended) were taken by horses who last raced at Parx Racing.  Included in that is a 29-1 winner.  On Sunday, another Parx horse scored at 8-1.

- On Saturday, two winners were second off a layoff and going turf-to-dirt after last competing at Atlantic City.  They went off at odds of 5-1 and 8-1.

- As of the completion of three races on Sunday, exacta-finishing trainers include: Ron Abrams, Andrew Amonte, Skip Einhorn, Kevin Fields, Charlie Harvatt, Rory Huston and Frank Poalucci.  Don’t be afraid to back capable horses in the hands of competent, low-profile conditioners.

Can you believe we’re just two days away from Opening Day of the 2011 Monmouth Park meet?

I know I can’t.

For those of you who spent the majority of the winter in New Jersey (sorry about all that snow by the way), I’m sure Opening Day has been a long time coming.  As someone who spent his entire winter in South Florida, I’m actually waiting for it to warm up.

While many things have remained the same since the end of the 2010 season, we do have a few different happenings.  Let’s bring everyone up to speed:

REMAINS THE SAME – Larry Collmus will call the races at Monmouth Park, except now he does it as the voice of the Triple Crown.

NEW FOR 2011 – Beginning in Race 4 everyday, Monmouth Park will offer the 50-cent Place Pick 6.  Ever wanted to rip your hair out because you were nosed out at 60-1 in the Pick 6.  Worry no more.

REMAINS THE SAME – Mud City Crab Cakes will be back in their 2010 location.  So much for the weight I lost in Florida.

NEW FOR 2011 – The free grass lot out by the train station is closed.  Just a heads up for those of you who usually park out there.

REMAINS THE SAME – The two-day BBQ & Craft Beer Festival is back and scheduled for Sept. 3 & 4.  Nothing else needs to be said!

NEW FOR 2011 – Monmouth Park’s Pick 4 is now a 50-cent wager.  This means it will cost you a combined $1.50 to play the Pick 4, Pick 5 (still a 50-cent wager) and the Place Pick 6.  Not too shabby.

REMAINS THE SAME – Let’s be honest.  Is there a better spot to spend a Saturday afternoon with friends?

NEW FOR 2011 – The Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Invitational is now a Breeders’ Cup Win & You’re In race.  Just making it official for what in past years has been one of the races of the year. 

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

I’m a big believer in letting the racing game come to you.  Some folks want to know now – right now! – before a meeting even starts: Who are the live trainers going to be?  What are the strongest jockey/trainer combos?  How’s the track going to play?  Which out-of-town circuit will be feeding in the strongest horses?

I, however, like to watch some races and digest some cards.  Track surface and human trends tend to change – at least a bit – from year-to-year and many times those changes can be picked up fairly quickly if you’re devoted to paying attention rather than married to pre-conceived notions.  And of course, just as the dynamics of New Jersey Thoroughbred racing were unique in 2010, they will be unique again in 2011.  So, I’m not setting anything on the table, but am hoping to feast on whatever I’m served!

Brian Skirka’s Derby Day Thoughts

Before I get to the handicapping, I just wanted to say a quick congratulations and good luck to Monmouth Park track announcer Larry Collmus in his first year of calling the Kentucky Derby (and the rest of the Triple Crown) for NBC.  No one is more deserving and it’ll be great to hear a close friend on racing’s biggest stage.

I’ll start out taking a look at the seventh race on the Derby Day card – the Grade 1 Humana Distaff.  Having spent the winter at Gulfstream Park, I can’t argue with #7 Hilda’s Passion being the 6-5 morning line favorite as she exits a track record performance.  However, the Churchill Downs surface is much different than that of Gulfstream Park and #3 Evening Jewel has an experience edge beneath the Twin Spires.  The multiple graded stakes winner finished a nose behind Blind Luck in last year’s Kentucky Oaks and returned six months later to run third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.  With apparently plenty of speed signed on for this race (even though Hilda’s Passion is ideally drawn to the outside) Evening Jewel merits a slight edge from off the pace.

Churchill’s ninth race on Saturday – the Grade 2 Churchill Downs – is absolutely loaded.  I was able to see #3 Apriority on two occasions this winter and was blown away both times.  His win going a mile four races back was a true test of stamina going what I feel is a little too long.  Two races back he nearly fell on his face coming out of the gate and still ran 6 ½ furlongs in 1:14 2/5.  He was second to a good one last out and gets a rider switch to reigning Eclipse Award winner Ramon Dominguez for this assignment – nothing wrong with that.  The problem for Apriority in this race, however, is that there are a lot of other ways to go.  #1 Aikenite looks like a new horse in 2011, #2 Smiling Tiger is a multiple Grade 1 winner, #6 Capt. Candyman is 5-for-5 at seven furlongs and is a multiple graded stakes winner, I really liked the race from #7 Ibboyee last out, and #12 Here Comes Ben is a Grade 1 winner at the distance and has three wins over the track. 

Speaking of evenly-matched fields, let’s take a look at Race 10 – the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic.  Starting from the rail, it’s impossible to not like #1 Little Mike as a horse.  (Doesn’t he remind you of Get Serious?)  I just feel the nine-furlong distance might be a little too much for him against top-class competition.  #5 Prince Will I Am is a horse I really like and will probably end up being my top choice.  The main question with him is the cutback in distance.  After a week-long deluge, the Churchill turf should remain somewhat soggy which will help the Prince’s chances.  A wet turf will also move #7 Get Stormy up.  I’ve always been a big fan of his and there’s no way I’m leaving him off my tickets after missing him last out at Keeneland.  #8 Doubles Partner is 2-for-2 on the CD turf but faces top-class competition for the first time.  I’ve always considered #9 Al Khali better on firm turf, although he’s run well over good going in the past.  Any additional rain in the next few days will hinder his chances as far as I’m concerned.  Give in the grass will help #12 Court Vision in his second race of 2011, but that one has some trouble finding the winner’s circle. 

On to the main event:

Skirka’s uses on top - #16 Animal Kingdom has been on my radar since he broke his maiden last October.  I love the name (AK’s sire’s name means “King of the Animals” in French), and he is just absolutely loaded with talent.  Breeding says turf/synthetic all the way, but I’m encouraged by his work over the local strip.  In a race lacking any sort of standout, I’ll make my stand with an immensely-talented animal trying dirt for the first time.  Animal Kingdom to win for me. 

#13 Mucho Macho Man is a huge root for for me – and a skilled individual in his own right. MMM seemingly has all the stars in alignment in terms of news angles and stories.  His trainer, Kathy Ritvo, is a heart-transplant recipient and one of the nicest people you will ever meet.  Mucho Macho Man used to be ridden by Eibar Coa who is currently rehabbing (and actually progressing amazing well) from a serious spinal injury suffered this winter.  New rider Rajiv Maragh was regular rider for my favorite horse of all time Hotstufanthensome.  Lastest, I worked for Tim Ritvo – who like his wife is beyond nice – at Gulfstream this winter.  I’m sure the #13 post has its place in there somewhere too.      

Skirka’s uses underneath - #1 Archarcharch seems to alternate good races with bad, but has reportedly been training lights out and should have the correct running style to capitalize on what I think will be a solid early pace.

#8 Dialed In has to be used just solely based on his trainer and the overall wide-openness of the Derby field.  Coming from last in a 20-horse field concerns me, but Ice Box finished second last year for these connections and Dialed In is better than Dialed In.  I would not take a short price on him to win but feel he has to be used for spots 2-4.

Skirka’s “Stretch” Uses (maybe on one ticket) - #17 Soldat if he can bounce back from a disappointing Florida Derby effort.  Maybe the outside draw will actually help him after being stuck on the rail in the Fla. Derby.

#14 Shackleford gave Dialed In all he could handle last out despite the time coming up rather slow.  If I’m using Dialed In, I guess I have to give this one consideration at five times the price.

Skirka’s not using - #18 Uncle Mo was my single in this race leading up to the Wood Memorial.  He was my savior in a race that I really didn’t like anybody else in.  After his shocking third-place finish that day and all that has unfolded since, the number 18 will not appear on any of my tickets.

Skirka’s rooting for if my selections are all out of the picture - #7 Pants of Fire is trained by locally-based Kelly Breen and ridden by Rosie Napravnik.  The latter is in perhaps the nicest person I’ve ever talked to in my six years of working at the racetrack.  (For the record, Kelly Breen is extremely nice as well.)  I loved the story CBS news did on Rosie’s attempt to become the first female jockey to win the Kentucky Derby.  If Pants on Fire is on the lead in the stretch (provided Animal Kingdom or Mucho Macho Man isn’t charging from behind) I’ll be rooting for Rosie.

Brad Thomas’ Horse-by-Horse Derby Analysis

1 - ARCHARCHARCH has been prepared superbly while utilizing the perfectly-spaced, distance-progressing Oaklawn 3-year-old program.  He’s versatile and adaptable when he gets an outside trip, but perhaps less so when he does not receive the clearance required to settle into his long, smooth, and efficient stride.  Archarcharch wins his races with sharp acceleration into the stretch and enough stamina to hold off the final closers.  His loss of ground late in his last two victories is more a function of price paid for blowing the races open rather than inherent lack of stamina.  More Derbies are won at the quarter and eighth poles than are lost in the shadow of the wire.  In a wide-open race, he seems like the likeliest winner and won’t be close to being the favorite.  The rail draw is dicey, but I’ll still key Archarcharch in all slots on my prime tickets.

2 – BRILLIANT SPEED runs in the Derby as an after-thought subsequent to taking a shot on synthetic and exceeding expectations in the Blue Grass.  Taking way back and finishing wildly worked (as it often does) in a bunched pack at Keeneland, but the same tactic in a strung-out field at Churchill will yield a steady diet of stinging dirt for a colt who’s yet to prove he can digest such a meal.  Still, given his improvement and the weak but pacey nature of the field, I’ll use Brilliant Speed deep underneath in some superfectas and trifectas.

3 - TWICE THE APPEAL advanced steadily upon switching to both dirt and distance when well set up in each of his last three.  Still, a true Derby horse should have been more dominant than he was in the Sunland Derby given the pace scenario and competition.  A toss for me, but likely live fractions can justify his use deep in exotics on big tickets.

4 - STAY THIRSTY lacks quality performances versus quality fields, speed figures, 2011 foundation, consistently forward training, and overall, near-term potential.  I’ll only use him deep on a few saver superfectas and trifectas.

5 - DECISIVE MOMENT was game despite extreme hard use in the synthetic Spiral behind a high-quality rival.  Still, he must move way forward and that is extremely unlikely given his precocious and speed-oriented pedigree.  I’m not including him.

6 - COMMA TO THE TOP is a wonderfully game, genuine, and over-achieving real racehorse who performs on any surface and possesses the seasoning and foundation lacking in so many of this race’s under-trained, under-raced, and overly-coddled pretenders.  Unfortunately, distance, pace, and level of competition all conspire against him.  I’m not using him – but with regret.

7 - PANTS ON FIRE has plenty of foundation and gameness, but could be short on room for improvement – especially stretching out to 10 furlongs.  He runs best setting or pressing the pace and will be further stressed by expected brisk splits.  I’m excluding him.

8 - DIALED IN has been tutored brilliantly by one of the all-time great Triple Crown trainers.  Nick Zito is an intuitive master unbeholden to cookie-cutter formulas or color-by-numbers blueprints.  He regards each athlete as an individual and conditions accordingly.  Well set-up in his first two starts, Dialed In was compromised badly by pace and bias two-back versus older horses, but got necessary seasoning and nine-furlong foundation when Zito courageously called an audible that defied modern convention about how to spot a Derby hopeful.  While his pace-aided but bias-hindered Florida Derby win was workmanlike, Dialed In still has weaknesses.  He’s been finessed a bit rather than worked or raced aggressively.  He’s unhandy and likely to by plagued by traffic.  He can lug in and be late changing leads.  His speed figures are static.  He’s no superstar.  I’ll use Dialed In everywhere but on top.

9 - DERBY KITTEN is an improving, strong finisher whose lone dirt start was horrendous.  Very well set up in the Lexington and lacking the company lines to be considered an exacta threat even with a dirt epiphany, his style and form still make him a saver use in some superfectas and trifectas.

10 - TWINSPIRED took legitimate steps forward in his last two, but gives clear indicators of being a synthetic/turf specialist.  Even if he now can handle dirt, he’d still need to improve another six lengths – at least – in a mere three weeks to be competitive.  I’m tossing him.

11 - MASTER OF HOUNDS has but one 2011 start (though it was longer than any race ever contested by any other Derby entrant), a miler’s pedigree, tepid company lines, and will be making his dirt debut.  However, the weakness of this field and the strength of his connections make this curious commodity impossible to toss completely out of exotics.

12 - SANTIVA could have been a key contender, but his fractured and at times nearly incoherent racing schedule indicate brittleness and/or overly conservative handling.  Boxed into a corner with no margin for error – both literally and figuratively – in the Blue Grass, he failed to take a needed forward step.  Still, I might remain sufficiently smitten with Santiva’s late-developing pedigree and potential to use him deep on some superfecta and trifecta tickets.

13 - MUCHO MACHO MAN’s seasoning, distance foundation, and old-school, very long gallops perhaps will negate any undesired effects emanating from a six-week layoff.  Still, he’s never beaten a truly first-rate foe and the blend of his frequently losing ground late with a middle-distance pedigree are troubling.  I won’t use Mucho Macho Man on top, but will have him plenty in all other positions.

14 - SHACKLEFORD has the body and maternal pedigree of a colt with serious upside.  While the distance and likely pace scenario of the Derby don’t do him any favors, his even stride-rhythm does suggest that Shackleford can track embattled leaders – if he’s able to get the clear, outside room to maneuver his size and unfamiliarity with kickback might require.  I will use him liberally for fourth and third, a bit for second, but not on the win end.

15 - MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE advanced markedly in speed-figures and versatility, but was forced into an all-out effort to get up over a distance-challenged runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby.  Out-quicked on the far turn, he relished the straightaway grind and did pull up well.  Whether the rapidly-improving (to this point) colt goes forward or back will be a function of his true class.  Midnight Interlude will be hurt by his pedigree, but helped by his tremendous Triple Crown trainer and, perhaps, a more aggressive pace scenario.  I’ll employ him plenty for fourth and third, somewhat for second, but very little on top.

16 - ANIMAL KINGDOM is a phenomenal, world-class talent on synthetic and turf, but he is the great unknown making his dirt debut in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  The pace-figure and speed-figure blend in his maiden score was extraordinary for an October juvenile going nine furlongs, his finishing kick off the bench on turf two back was excellent, and the gears and final surge he displayed last time in the Spiral were exceptional.  Animal Kingdom’s lone workout on Churchill dirt was promising, but a controlled practice run can’t in any serious way truly mimic a traffic-congested and kickback-laced Derby.  Still, his uncommon potential, the weakness of the field, and expected double digit odds merit Animal Kingdom’s serious inclusion in all exotics slots and a win saver – at the very least.

17 - SOLDAT was aided by strong biases in his two front-end dirt scores, but reacted badly to inside position and kickback when rated in his dull Florida Derby.  Likely will be hindered here by pace, distance, field size, and the scope his less precocious rivals might have for major physical improvement by Derby day.  I’m only using him deep underneath.

18 - UNCLE MO was a true superstar at age two, but has not trained or competed like a champion at age three.  His pedigree and lack of workout and racing foundation make him highly vulnerable in a race as mentally and physically demanding as the Derby – even if his raw speed-figure potential suddenly returns.  Past winners have stumbled on their way to the Roses, but their overall 3-year-old campaign has not been as sparse or spotty as Uncle Mo’s has been.  With his poor draw, he won’t be in any of my exactas and few, if any, of my superfectas or trifectas.

19 - NEHRO has improved a lot in a short period of time and now must do it again while coming back on only three weeks of rest for the second straight time.  Pace and bias-assisted in the Arkansas Derby, he once again raced a bit awkwardly on the turns, but finished powerfully and pulled up strongly on the straightaway.  Nehro must demonstrate the class to raise his game one more time on short rest and the courage to tough it out on the far turn and get in range for the stretch run.  At 6-1 or less, I see him as a win underlay, but will use him somewhat in all other spots.

20 - WATCH ME GO never has run a race that remotely suggests he could be competitive in the Kentucky Derby.

Selections: Archarcharch, Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man, Dialed In

Best of luck to everyone playing the Derby on Saturday!!  Brad and I will be back next week to go over the Derby and look ahead to the start of the 2011 Monmouth Park meet.  As always, we’d love to hear your thoughts on the big race.  Feel free to leave us a comment and I’ll try to respond if I can remember how.  It’s great to be back!

2010 Monmouth Park Blog Finale - Part 2

From the time Brad and I started this things two years ago, the goal has always been to inform as well as entertain.  This year especially, I’ve tried to put in the blog exactly what I feel in my head and my heart.  Whatever I wrote in the blog was exactly the same thing I went home and talked to my brother or any of my friends about.  I truly hope our material accomplished both of our goals, because I had an awesome time writing it.  I guess we’re just a little over five months away from being back here talking about the Derby.

My winter plans take me south this winter for the first time.  My first day of work at Gulfstream Park is December 13.  After a few stressful days, I stumbled upon a great place to live right in Hallandale the other day, and I hear they have relatively good golfing and fishing down there!

Looking back on this summer, I honestly can’t think of one negative.  I work with great people at a track I’ve been coming to my entire life.  What could be better than that?  In my last written piece of 2010, I want to thank a couple people that made this summer so great:

First off, I want to thank everyone at NYRA.  For six months last winter, I worked with Dan, Jenny and Ashley in the publicity office and it was awesome.  I arrived at NYRA confident that I could handle doing barn notes, but with no proof.  When I came back to Monmouth, my time at NYRA gave me so much added confidence for my switch to the MP publicity office.  (I guess I had to “grow up” quick in NY.  On my first day I stood in Todd Pletcher’s office and met Summer Bird.)  I learned so much in my six months in New York, and those lessons will be with me the rest of my life.

Next up, I want to thank my “team” here at Monmouth.  I couldn’t ask for a nicer person to work with than Sophia Mangalee.  If I had to count on my hands the number of times she helped me out over the years…well, let’s just say I’d need to borrow a lot of fingers.  This winter, I’m heading to Florida, she’s preparing for the longest horse race in the world.  (Really puts things in perspective when I start to get a little nervous.)  This was my first year working in the publicity office with the one-of-a-kind John F. Heims.  Let’s just say I laughed more this year than in my previous four MP seasons combined.  Pete Verdee also provided his usual humor – albeit a slightly different style than Mr. Heims – especially during those late nights playing Charles Town.  Larry Collmus, in addition to being the best track announcer in the country, was an enormous help with everything Gulfstream Park related.  Here’s hoping I don’t end up paying him back in dollars on the golf course this winter!  Brad Thomas, as he has the last four years, helped me in so many ways.  I definitely wouldn’t be who I am today if it wasn’t for Brad.  There’s also been George, Tom, Caitlin, Billy, Barbara, Ginger and many others who have helped me in some way this summer.  For that I say thank you.

The final thanks goes to all of you.  Thank you for reading the blog, and thank you for supporting our meet this year.  Brad and I will be back in May, and we hope all of you are as well. 

THE FINAL EDITION OF THE 2010 MONMOUTH PARK BLOG WILL BE POSTED ON SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 21.  TRUST ME, YOU DON’T WANT TO MISS THIS! 

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

The racing season at Monmouth might be winding down, but horses competing here will continue to run at other venues.  Sometimes the best insights for handicapping are ones gained at a familiar track that common sense says will translate well to a new circuit.  In that vein, here are some horses to watch:

November 7 

Race 3 – Sassy City, usually better second-time form cycle, came off the bench, was off slowly, and middle-moved decently versus a tough field for the optional level at which she competed.  She likes Tampa Bay and now is mature enough to handle seven furlongs or longer.

Race 5 – Bombardo again finished steadily but well in his second lifetime start while showing some tactical improvement.  He could advance big-time next year at age three – especially stretching out and/or on turf.

November 13 

Race 6 – Intensivist showed a very limited drill schedule for his debut but was full of run thereafter.  Too far back on the backstretch to be a real factor late, he’s a work in progress with considerable raw talent.

Race 8 – Paulsbourbonbaby continued her improvement despite stepping way up in class and has the pedigree to do well stretching out next season at age three.

Race 9 – Cryin Out Loud is green and all about distance in terms of both pedigree and style.  He’ll be much, much improved with maturity as a 3-year-old.

November 14 

Race 1 – Dance Quietly got some excellent schooling in her maiden victory making several start-stop-start runs while pinned inside a tenacious pacesetter and then gamely held off a well-bred, perfect-trip closer in the stretch.  She has a tremendous pedigree herself as well as a super-athletic build that she will fill out more fully with maturity.  Dance Quietly defeated three next-out winners and two subsequent runner-ups two-back at Delaware and only was beaten a neck by one who came back to finish third in the Grade 1 Frizette and a very decent fifth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.  With so much pedigree and physical room to improve, Dance Quietly could be able to play on the graded level herself next year.

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* Just watched the Breeders’ Cup Classic about five or six times while trying to explore different angles and really think that if jockey Mile Smith went back to a left-handed (And he does have a tremendous left hand!) stick in the final yards, Zenyatta had a chance to get up.  It appeared to me that Smith actually contemplated the switch, but probably figured the mare already had so much momentum at that point, he didn’t want to risk losing it.

* I’m tired of reading racing writers and chartmen who don’t know the proper definitions of trade lexicon.  To “check” means momentum was broken sharply and the jockey had to snatch up relatively severely.  It doesn’t happen that often.  Yet some folks use the term to describe even the slightest steadying.  It’s just another reason to do your own work and make your own notes as much as possible.

* Yes, the way the Churchill track was playing and a fast pace set things up nicely for winning, Nick Zito-trained firster Dialed In in the 7^th race on November 12.  But still, the classically-bred colt showed sharp acceleration AND the ability to sustain it despite racing very greenly and virtually lugging in throughout while being cautiously handled for much of the race.  The effort might be downgraded since it was the slower of two such juvenile maiden specials run that day at seven furlongs, but this powerful animal has huge physical and mental upside and is in the hands of a Triple Crown master.

* Check out the replay of the 3^rd race at Monmouth on November 14 to see a graphic example of Paco Lopez’s growth as a jockey.  He nurses Ronnies Footnotes along during a controlled pace duel, opens up at the perfect time turning into the lane, and only gets to the bottom of his mount after glancing back over his right shoulder in upper stretch and seeing a fresh challenge materialize.  Lopez’s powerful and varied stick-work carried Ronnies Footnotes home in the final sixteenth.  The rider always has been a good finisher and a strong, slashing off-the-pace performer, but this season he’s stepped up his front-running game and taken his stretch-urging to a new level.  With some additional fine-tuning and polish, Lopez is on the cusp of becoming a truly elite jockey.

* It’s sickening to keep reading about stud fee increases for some stallions.  In the current economic climate for both the country and the industry, no such fees should be increased and the vast majority should be lowered.  Racing desperately needs more horses and raising stud fees is no way to achieve that.  As for the stallions who’ve been cut, many of them were absurdly over-priced in the first place and only now are being offered at levels remotely fair to the customer.  And speaking of price levels and the perception of how they affect business, I’d love to do a poll of commercial breeders and stallion owners and get their opinions about tax increases! 

We’ll be discussing a number of the major stories from this year’s Monmouth Park meet and the national racing scene as a whole.  It’s been such a long year, and so much has happened, so we’d love to get some more suggestions from you guys as far as what you want to hear us talk about on the last edition of the blog.  Here are a few ideas that Brad and I came up with off the top of our heads:

- The introduction of the Elite Summer Meet

- Rachel Alexandra returns to Monmouth Park

- Lookin at Lucky wins the Haskell

- Zenyatta’s quest for Horse of the Year

- The “Wives” become a worldwide sensation

- Get Serious dominates Monmouth’s turf stakes

- Goldikova wins her third-straight Breeders’ Cup Mile

- Uncle Mo solidifies himself as an early Kentucky Derby favorite

- Rachel Alexandra retires

- Europeans dominate American turf stakes during summer and fall

- Lebron James joins the Heat

- The Yankees fail to make the World Series

- Eskenderaya dominates the Derby preps

Like I said, these are some of the topics that Brad and I thought up off the top of our heads.  If you have any addition suggestions, please leave a comment and let us know.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

The world changes.  Get used to it.  Things that were fun and interesting once upon a time no longer exist today.  Even chronically slow-reacting horse racing isn’t immune.  Here are some favorite memories of racetracks past:

Monmouth 

Decades ago, when late afternoon arrived and only a couple races were left on the card, the newsstands would be reversed to face the Grandstand and late day editions of New York newspapers were sold.  In the dark ages before cell phones, cable, and computers, this was the first time in many hours that trackgoers were able to check in with what was happening in the outside world.  Was the president indicted?  Did Martin still manage the Yankees?  Who won today’s 2^nd race at Belmont?  On one surreal afternoon, a prominent trainer’s ongoing legal troubles were the front-page story.  The newsies hawked his name for all it was worth.  Minutes later, his very close relative won the last race at Monmouth Park.  Amazingly, the animal paid a big price.  Whoever said that horseplayers bet hunches?

Belmont 

Many days ay Belmont used to be like a contemporary Travers Day at Saratoga times 10 in terms of super well-bred and high-quality racing stock on display.  Way back when, most of the best horses were home-bred products cultivated over many generations by aristocratic-like families of old-time wealth.  These titans and icons had to mingle with the vulgar in their trips to the walking ring pre-race and trackside post-contest.  One day, a very famous fellow with a sparkling reputation for reserved gentility was obviously disappointed with his horse’s performance and was in earnest conversation with the jockey.  As I passed by, I heard the old gentleman mutter, “If I knew you were goin’ to bleepin’ ride him like that, I would have bleepin’ ridden him myself!”  He had a gold-plated cane, wore a school tie, and was over 80 years old.

Saratoga 

In the last 20 years, the Saratoga meeting has exploded and the once Mayberry-like upstate New York culture has gotten a bit more like what exists downstate.  Success and growth have eroded some charm and naivety.  In the 1980’s, a friend of mine who dressed stylishly also had a vague resemblance to movie star Al Pacino and we would banter about it.  One day, I kiddingly told some Saratoga acquaintances that my breakfast companion was a “real star.”  Within 20 minutes, dozens of people were on the sidewalk outside the café.  They were peaking through the windows, waving shyly, clicking cameras, and clutching autograph books.  When we went outside, there were shrieks of: “It’s really him!”  “He’s even better looking in person!”  “I actually touched him!”  “Al” graciously posed for pictures and signed autographs.  Years later, people would come up to me and ask how my friend “Al” was doing.  Now, as I said, there was a resemblance.  But if he truly did look like Al Pacino, then I’m a dead ringer for Alfred E. Neuman.  And if you want to stay logged on here, you better watch how you respond!

Aqueduct 

When the crowds were bigger, subway trains stopped at a station especially built just for the track.  It was elevated and riders had to walk down a rather high and steep incline to get to the admission gates.  When a train arrived within five minutes of the first post, its doors would open and a frenzied mob of eccentric and eclectic-looking men would charge down the hill.  Think of a battle scene in “Braveheart” with Daily Racing Form’s and cigars replacing shields and broad swords.  Every once in a while, somebody would take a tumble.  He’d roll, and roll, and then roll some more.  Never was a helping hand offered.  (You are, after all, betting against the guy next to you!)  I never saw anyone badly hurt and each and every time a fellow hit the ground, he’d pop right up with bloody money in hand, use the distance and momentum gained to shoot through the turnstyles on the lead, and then be first in line at the windows to make the double.  My, how healthy the game once was!

After last season, I thought I might never see her again, but as fate would have it, I was wrong.  This summer, I truly began to understand how I felt about her.  And the last couple days – with the realization setting in that she may be taken away from me again this winter – she’s been the only thing on my mind.  Maybe it’s not appropriate to talk about on the blog – and it’s surely a little corny – but I don’t really care.

This girl has done so much for other people.  She is so incredible at her job that she’s left an everlasting impression on everyone who has ever been lucky enough to spend any amount of time around her.  If I were starting a team, she would undoubtedly be my first pick.  I don’t even want to think about what my life would be like without her in it.

Her name is Zenyatta.  She’s majestic.  She’s heroic.  And what she’s done for the sport of horse racing over the past four seasons cannot be understated.  She won her first 19 races including 13 Grade I’s, two Breeders’ Cup events, and $6.4 million in earnings.  But undoubtedly her greatest performance came in what could end up being her final start.

The pressure on Zenyatta heading into this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic was immense.  For one of the few times in her life, she was on someone else’s home turf.  She had supposed “experts” saying there was no way she could win.  And she was going for 20 consecutive wins on national television in the biggest race of the year.

If ESPN had 500 cameras at the Breeders’ Cup, 499 of them were on Zenyatta in the minutes leading up to the Classic.  But despite being followed by a paparazzi-like swarm, Queen Z’s personality shined through.  She danced all the way from her stall to the paddock.  And once she broke from the gate, boy did she put on a show.

As someone who played competitive sports for the better part of the first 20 years of his life, I fully understand the importance and difference between winning and losing.  In black and white terms, Blame won the Classic and Zenyatta lost.  But I’m having trouble thinking of an occasion when a runner-up has received such great accolades – in most corners, Zenyatta is being praised even more than Blame.

On Monday’s episode of “Around the Horn” on ESPN, J.A. Adande of the L.A. Times said the Classic was one of the best sporting events he has ever watched.  That’s coming from a professional sportswriter who has the Los Angeles Lakers in his town.  A half-hour later, Michael Wilbon – someone who usually is mocking our sport – said on ESPN’s “Pardon the Interruption” that he loved everything about the Classic.  They weren’t talking about Blame.  Zenyatta mesmerized them just like she has mesmerized thousands of fans.

Ever since Saturday, I’ve been mesmerized, too.  I guess I’m caught in her aura.  I can’t stop thinking about her.  Any time I hear someone talk behind her back or speak one negative word about her – which unfortunately happens a lot – it gets my adrenaline pumping and my protective juices start flowing.  I just want to spend every second of every day thinking about her, but it hurts that I can never tell her how I truly feel. 

Over the years, one of the most important things I’ve learned is to always either tell or show someone your appreciation – let them know how important they are to you and how much their help means.  It’s amazing how just the two words “thank” and “you” can mean so much. 

So, if the Classic truly was Zenyatta’s last race – and I guess even if it wasn’t – I want to say thank you on behalf of racing fans across the country for putting on one of the best shows I’ve ever seen.  Thank you for always giving 120% no matter the scenario.  Thank you for helping to introduce thousands of new fans to our great game.  And thank you for showing up with the best performance of your life when the lights were the brightest and everyone had their eyes on you.  Thank you on behalf of your fans and even on behalf of your doubters.  It’s not their fault they can’t see past their own arrogance to admit that they were wrong and that you are actually one of the all-time greats.  Thank you.

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I’ll end my part of today’s blog with an idea I had last night while reading on drf.com about Zenyatta’s return to California and her upcoming schedule.  Maybe – whether she deserves it or not – we should root for Zenyatta not to win Horse of the Year.  If she falls short to Blame, or Blind Luck, or Goldikova, maybe her connections will bring her back for another year in search on that HOTY crown – just like they did this year.  And maybe, just maybe, since she no longer boasts an undefeated record, her connections will be more open to shipping her out of California.

Brad Thomas’ Breeders’ Cup Spin 

Marathon – Eldaafer was a worthy winner.  He sat close and tactically early and blew the race open late with an uncommonly strong turn of foot for a 14^th furlong.  Prince Will I Am, the runner-up across the wire, is a horse with a big kick himself and tested the winner in a manner that verified the strength of the former’s performance.  Prince Will I Am was superb as a 3-year-old competing against veteran stayers.  He’s even better on turf and can be a start on that surface in 2011.

Juvenile Fillies Turf – Both winner More Than Real and Juvenile Turf victor Pluck (both trained by Todd Pletcher) last raced about seven weeks ago at Woodbine.  In a copycat industry, both those Woodbine stakes next year likely will be overflowing with entrants while other 2-year-old added money events are left to divide up the remains – especially the ones closer to the Breeders’ Cup.  Until something is done to encourage and/or force people to run their horses more often, this situation will only get worse.  In 10 years, the definitive juvenile BC grass preps could be maiden races at Saratoga in mid-August.

            The mile distance was too short for third-finishing Kathmanblu, but she’s an absolute monster – who does have to get more professional mentally to reach her ample potential next year. 

Filly & Mare Sprint – Runner-up Switch deserves huge credit for maintaining her form throughout a long, substantial, varied, and well-traveled campaign – and after taking Zenyatta to the limit in her previous start.  She’s a clear choice for second on my (unofficial) ballot for top 3-year-old filly.

Juvenile Fillies – Despite her recent exorbitant sales price, my feeling is that winner Awesome Feather already has reached the pinnacle of her career.  Of the mediocre rest, third-finishing Delightful Mary ran like she’ll improve with maturity, but her pedigree might not concur.

Filly & Mare Turf – The decrepit final time (even accounting for a slow pace), mere 2 ¼ lengths separating the first eight finishers, and strong performances by three seemingly outclassed longshots, all point to this being yet another weak race.  Classy Euros Midday and Plumania clearly were over the top.

Distaff – A tremendous job by trainer Bill Mott and jockey Kent Desourmeaux getting heretofore headstrong Unrivaled Belle to rate off the pace much farther than usual and dole out her resources in measured doses.

Juvenile Turf – Pluck completed a double for respected but still underrated turf sire More Than Ready.  Fifth-finishing Banned was rushed a bit early and again mid-race while being asked to stay in the mix through faster fractions than he was used to pressing.  Growthy, powerful, and long-striding, he has a huge future with maturity and in slow-tempoed turf races going farther.

Sprint – An absolutely awesome ride by Eibar Coa, the most underrated, top, top tier jockey in the game.  He got Big Drama out of the gate as quickly  as possible from his virtually no-hope rail draw, cleared, got off the inside and onto the best part of the track, and aggressively laid down fast fractions throughout rather than attempting a foolish slow down of the pace.  It was a textbook example or seizing the grail rather than waiting for it to fall out of the sky and into your lap.

            As the second BC dirt winner who lived and trained at Calder, Big Drama provided ample proof of the value of preparing for top-class tests on a deep, demanding and natural surface.

Turf Sprint – Relatively deep closers finished first and third.  Perhaps astute European connections will begin to understand that the frenetic pace of five-furlong turf races in the United States actually gives their big finishers live chances when this race is run at that distance.

Juvenile – The European 2-year-old crop has been hailed as uncommonly strong this season.  Maybe it is, but this Breeders’ Cup provided no such positive evidence.  Biondetti, a badly-beaten fourth, was the best-finishing Euro from a plethora of entrants in the four juvenile races.

Mile – This race was as formful as one can be if you really examine the past company lines and final performances of virtually all of the entrants.  Goldikova’s greatness was verified and third-finishing, still improving, and not distance-limited The Usual Q.T.’s future promise was, too.

Dirt Mile – Many, myself included, mocked the decision to run seeming two-turn specialist Morning Line in this race.  Well, he laughed at us with his fantastic second.  He disputed insane fractions, put away three or four separate challenges, and only just failed to last to a deep closer.  The multi-dimensional colt is of Grade 1 quality around one turn or two and – don’t tell his connections or they might retire him right now – has the quality, character, speed, stamina and pedigree to be one potentially great sire.

Turf – The scratch of Workforce out of this race was inexplicable.  The Churchill turf course was in no way “hard” or “jarring.”  Indeed, it was more giving than the grass was the last two Breeders’ Cup years at Santa Anita.  When complaints are shrill and unjustified and a lightly-raced horse who was badly beaten at .70-1 two starts ago is scratched, it’s not the condition of the course that I’m wondering about.

Classic – The connections of Blame have been steadfast in asserting that their horse’s desperate, better-trip, mere inches victory over Zenyatta makes him a clear-cut, no-doubt-about-it Horse of the Year.  Okay, they have to sell a big stallion price on a horse with only average, at best, precocity, sprint speed, and commercial pedigree appeal.  But maybe if they had shared their wonderful colt with the racing public more than a paltry five times in 2010, Blame actually would have been able to state his case definitively all by himself.

The excellent betting totals in this year’s BC can be credited somewhat to the interest aroused by Zenyatta’s quest for perfection, but even more so to the combination of fuller, more competitive fields and the sage decision to drop minimums of many wagers to $0.50.  A BC run in a climate with seasons and on real dirt gave a fair shake to more horses and the lower minimums gave a fighting chance to more players.  The fact that it has taken so long for the industry to accept, however haltingly, lower base prices for some wagers is yet another example of how out of touch much of racing’s leadership has been with its customers who actually play the game.  Let’s see how long it takes to knock the standard down to a quarter!

It took me a long time to finally hitch my car to the Zenyatta bandwagon.  Regretfully now, I initially agreed with the many anti-Zenyatta fans that she was way over-hyped because she “never left California” and “never beat anyone.”  Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, however, changed my mind about Zenyatta for good.  I was at Santa Anita last year, and at the beginning of the day, I didn’t think Queen Z had a chance in the world to win the Classic.  In fact I was told to “bite my tongue” by an elderly woman sitting in front of me when I said – apparently too loud – that I didn’t like Zenyatta.  (For the record, I didn’t mean it literally.  We were discussing who to use in the Pick 4.)  

After her Classic win to conclude 2009, I was a Zenyatta fan.  She obviously already was one, but that performance transformed her to a superstar in my mind.  You don’t remain undefeated by accident.  She was a star.

This year, Zenyatta cut it close a couple of times in California, but was always able to get the job done.  As for me, I rooted her home every time for what I think was “in the best interest of the sport.”  I know there are many people out there who disagree with that, but I truly believe the more Zenyatta won, the more fans she brought in and the better it was for the sport of Thoroughbred racing.  That’s why – despite picking against her – I screamed my lungs out for her to get up yesterday in the Classic. 

Gambling winnings and losings aside, I’ve never left the track saddened by the outcome of a race before.  I did yesterday.  I didn’t really want to talk to anyone.  I didn’t really want to do anything.  I didn’t even really want to watch the replay.  When I finally did re-watch the race, it was like watching a sad movie for the second time and hoping somehow the ending would be different. 

This morning I watched jockey Mike Smith’s post-race press conference.  How sad was that.  While gallantly holding back tears for the majority of it, Smith proved what kind of person he was and took the blame for the loss.  It absolutely wasn’t his fault, but he didn’t want anyone criticizing the horse that brought him so much.

I felt so bad on my drive home last night.  I felt bad that I picked against Zenyatta.  I felt even worse that I was right.  I felt bad that this may be her last start.  I felt bad that people might criticize her for failing to beat the best in the world.  I felt bad for Mike Smith, John Sheriffs, Jerry & Ann Moss, and everyone else associated with one of the best horses I’ve ever seen.

After a while, that bad feeling transformed a little bit into a proud feeling.  A lot of people out there thought Zenyatta had no chance in this race.  Many of those same people thought she had no chance last year, and the year before.  Once the initial sadness went away, I became really proud of Zenyatta for running such an incredible race and giving it absolutely everything she had – just like she always does. 

With her retirement likely on the horizon, I’m back to feeling bad.  Feeling bad that I missed out on rooting for Zenyatta during the first two years of her career.  There is no doubt Zenyatta is one of the three best horses I have ever seen.  If Saturday’s Classic was in fact her last race, I’m really going to miss her.  Thank you Zenyatta for always giving 110% and for all the excitement you brought to our great sport!!

And as for the “Zen-Notta” headline on the back page of Sunday’s New York Post.  All I’ll say is that’s why – despite being a journalism major – I could never work for a newspaper.  Real classy.  

Brad Thomas’ Breeders’ Cup Thoughts 

The fight between Calvin Borel and Javier Castellano probably brought more attention, awareness, and public-at-large buzz for racing than all the video, print and electronic advertising in the last 10 years combined.  An old P.R. maxim is that “Any press is good press” and the unfortunate realities of the modern world now make that truer than ever.  Additionally, the masses are conditioned to seeing all smiles (usually semi-fake, at least), glad-handing, and “awe, shucks” attitudes on big race days.  A show of competitive fire, really caring, and nerves-on-edge in a very dangerous game actually provides a more true-to-life feel to an event that all too often has a manufactured, too-good-to-be-true tone – and surely one very different from a race day anywhere in the country on the other 360 or so days of the year.  Racing needs to get the stick out of its reality-meter and portray itself – flaws and all – in all its dimensions.  That richness is a strength rather than a weakness.  Let’s stop pretending that every day is like Breeders’ Cup Day and that Breeders’ Cup Day is a perfect fantasy-land.  The intricacies and opportunities of the wagering game are there every day.  They are phenomenally interesting, challenging and variable.  They are the one true constant in the business and the ultimate reality game.  Let’s not be afraid to limit the pyrite, feel-good schlock and push what really provides the gold to pay the bills!

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The situation surrounding Life At Ten, distanced at 3.80-1 in the Distaff, was horrendous.  All the humans involved seem more concerned with assigning blame – to someone else – than they do with the betting dollars of supposedly valued customers that were cavalierly flushed away.  Every person in the chain apparently knew that something was amiss pre-race with the mare, but rather than standing up and taking responsibility, seemed to look to someone else to do something.  You want to scratch her?  I don’t know.  What do you think?  Pitiful!

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Uncle Mo took his already strong game to a new level.  He’s super athletic and his stride is absolutely huge for a horse of his size while also being extremely efficient.  He’s the real deal.  That said, I still think To Honor And Serve, winner of Saturday’s Grade 3 Nashua at Aqueduct, will be a better classic candidate at age three.

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Godikova is no worse than tied for being the best horse in the world.  She went from being beaten at the quarter pole to winning on cruise control just past the eighth pole.  The acceleration she showed against a top-class group was of a once-every-couple-decades type.  She beat Gio Ponti’s A-Game with ease, right?  Didn’t Zenyatta have to work just a bit harder to beat that one last year?

*          *            *            *

Zenyatta was greater in defeat than she ever was in victory.  Her legacy was in no way diminished – in fact it was enhanced.  The way she exploded in upper stretch when she extricated herself from traffic (And that extrication was awesome by itself!) was one of the most breathtaking sights I’ve ever witnessed.  In a literal sense, I don’t believe Mike Smith did anything wrong, but if I was riding her I would have felt I got my golden trip in 2009, and now, in 2010, it was time to commit to a wide sweep once the great mare was in gear.

*          *            *            *

Horse of the Year?  Not Blame.  He hand-picked his spots all year, ran but five times, and was second-best as the Classic was run.  Goldikova?  No, not on one race.  Zenyatta?  Maybe.  You can put her in a tie with Blame.  He beat her, but she was best.  The deadlock could be broken on career achievement.  I could live with that.  But in these tough times, racing needs to make statements.  So, in that vein, my Horse of the Year is Blind Luck.  She ran nine times, maintained absolute top-class form all year, criss-crossed the country on multiple occasions, and took on all comers on both non-turf surfaces at Santa Anita, Oaklawn, Churchill, Hollywood, Delaware, Saratoga, Parx and Churchill again.  She raced and competed repeatedly – like champions are supposed to do.  The industry must find a way to encourage and/or cajole horses of all levels to run much more often.  Making an aggressive and full campaign part of championship criteria and reward is a good way to get the pendulum moving in the right direction.

After basically 24 consecutive hours of handicapping and typing, my head is throbbing just a little, but I’m a trooper, so let’s blog it up.  I’ll mix a little hodge podge in with my Breeders’ Cup thoughts to spice things up a little.  (Similar to the cayenne pepper they put in horse’s bandages to keep them from biting at them – just learned that today; kinda cool.) 

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This Tuesday was one of my off days.  However I spent the majority of the day on my laptop tying up comments for the supplemental program Monmouth Park and the Meadowlands will be giving out for Breeders’ Cup Friday.  After seven hours, I have a new-found respect for program handicapper Tom Cassidy.  I don’t know how he made it through the summers back in the day doing comments five days a week.  (Is the phrase ‘back in the day’ still used?)  Along the same lines, thank you to the Thoroughbred Times for having the only website containing printable entries for all the Breeders’ Cup races.  After three hours of looking at every racing publication I know – including the website for the event itself – and finding nothing, you were a lifesaver.

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Talk about ying and yang.  Sunday was Halloween and let’s just say thankfully there weren’t that many pictures taken, because I looked like a complete idiot.  (Many people said I looked like the old guy from the Six Flags Great Adventure commercials, even though that was not the intent.)  Anyway, 24 hours after not looking very tough-guy-like, I was fishing on a boat in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean in 40-degree temperatures and 20-mph winds.  I felt just a little manlier than the day before.   

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In my last blog entry, I wrote that I had this guy feeling that Quality Road was going to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic to complete the story started last year when he flipped out and was scratched at the gate.  Well, after QR drew the rail at Tuesday’s post position draw, that feeling is gone.  Now the only feeling I have in my gut is one of hunger.

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I’ve said it many times before, and I’m sure I’ll say it again and again.  Pitching and defense wins.  Just ask the Texas Rangers.  I wish I lived a little closer to Las Vegas so I could have cashed in on that one!

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We were reminiscing about past Breeders’ Cups today in the office and I had a fond memory of my favorite-named BC participant of all time:  2004 Breeders’ Cup Mile runner-up Antonius Pius.  The combination of the name and Tom Durkin’s voice equaled a great late surge in that race at Lone Star.  And after watching the replay today for the first time in years, Antonius Pius should have won that race.

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Over the last two days I – along with Brad Thomas, Tom Cassidy, and publicity director John F. Heims, Esq. – landed on my top four selections in each Breeders’ Cup race for our two free Breeders’ Cup program supplements.  It physically hurt me, but I picked Blame over Zenyatta.  The racing fan in me wants her to win by 10 lengths.  But the horseplayer in me had trouble picking a horse likely to go off at around 6-5 and a horse who has never faced this kind of competition on conventional dirt.  My goal for Breeders’ Cup Saturday: be alive in the late Pick 4 to Blame and Zenyatta (and maybe Musket Man just in case) in the Classic so I can root for Big Z.  (Sorry ex-Cavalier and current Miami Heat center Zydrunas Ilgauskas, I think Zenyatta deserves the nickname more.)

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I don’t want to go through all the races, because it’s getting late and dinner is calling, but some of my stronger opinions for the two-day Breeders’ Cup include:

Life At Ten in the Ladies Classic – Took some heat for this one from the earlier-mentioned Heims, Esq., but I think she has a great chance in here.  I don’t even mind her drawing the rail.  Blind Luck has had an incredibly-tough campaign of both races and travel and has never faced her elders.  With that said, I would be surprised if Blind Luck wasn’t rallying into contention in the stretch, but Life At Ten is my top pick to hold her off.

Warrior’s Reward flying late in Sprint – Drawing the rail really hurts what would have been my second choice Big Drama, so I guess all my eggs are in Warrior’s Reward’s basket.  I’ve been on his Breeders’ Cup bandwagon for a long time, as he gets to face the world’s best on his home track.  ATTENTION:  In my program picks, I DID NOT pick Warrior’s Reward to win.  Six furlongs just doesn’t sit right with me for him, so I picked him second – but I will be really surprised if he doesn’t come flying at the end.  The distance might predicate him ending up just a little bit short.

Tizway and Here Comes Ben in the Dirt Mile – I don’t know why Morning Line is the favorite on the morning…ok, that was lame…and second choice Crown of Thorns has never been on dirt and hasn’t won in a very long time.  That opens this race up for some prices to me, and Tizway and Here Comes Ben are where I’m looking.  The former loves the distance and track configuration, the latter just loves the track.

A huge longhot in the Juvenile – There looks to be a ton of speed in this race.  Boys at Tosconova and Uncle Mo are really the only two horses seriously being talked about and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go head-to-head early.  Even if that doesn’t happen, there are still multiple other speed rivals to burn out one or both of the above-mentioned likely favorites.  My top two selections are both 30-1 on the line and I’m looking for an exacta in the $783.50 range.  Murjan is an undefeated invader from Peru.  He beat 3-year-olds last time.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he won.  Honestly, I wouldn’t really be surprised if he came in last.  I put him right on top.  For second, I took Rogue Romance – picked to win by Brad Thomas and Tom Cassidy (talk about the kiss of death trio).  RR is a deep closer who would benefit from fast fractions.  He’s never run on dirt before, however.  They call it gambling for a reason, and I’ll be gambling on this race.  The only thing I don’t want to see is Boys at Tosconova and Uncle Mo run 1-2 all the way around!

Euros in the Turf – Al Khali has been getting a lot of publicity lately after his tough trip last out at Woodbine, but I’ve been saying it all year – if a European horse doesn’t win the Breeders’ Cup Turf, I will be absolutely stunned.  In fact, there are four Euros in the Turf, I picked them to run 1-2-3-4.

I’ll be rooting hard during the Classic – Hopefully I’ll be alive for some sort of financial profit, but the lock of the weekend is that I’ll be rooting the heck out of Zenyatta in the Classic.  Sometimes single horses or races are overshadowed by something more important.  To me, I want Zenyatta to win the Classic for the good of the sport.  I know a lot of people disagree, so here’s my simple argument:  If Zenyatta wins the Classic, it will be one of the top stories on SportsCenter and probably on the majority of sportscasts, and in newspapers around the country.  What happens if Musket Man wins?  (For my brother’s sake, Musket Man will be the second horse I am rooting for on Saturday.)  But if he wins, or Haynesfield, or Paddy O’Prado, or First Dude?  Nothing against those horses and their connections, but will a Lookin at Lucky Breeders’ Cup Classic victory make the Fox 5 sports broadcast?  I don’t think so.  The more good publicity this sport can get, the better.  And a Zenyatta win will be by far the best publicity for our sport.  So that’s what I’ll be rooting for.  (And it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if Musket Man came in second at 28-1!!)

On behalf of Brad and myself, have a phenomenal Breeders’ Cup and make a ton of money.  Hopefully you can use some of the things Brad and I have mentioned this year to land on some big bucks.  Just make sure you avoid that wammy!! 

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Daily Racing Form handicapper Kenny Peck is one of the absolute best in the business on a daily basis, but over the last two weekends has done an especially superb job pointing out live horses at huge prices.  On October 24, Peck placed Hobbitontherocks second in his analysis while strongly suggesting that the gelding had a big upset chance.  The Mario Serey trainee won at 32-1 and Peck had the reverse exacta that paid $216.60.  Last Sunday, Peck did the exact same thing with Deacon Dan.  That gelding upset at 19-1 and the DRF handicapper had the reverse exacta that paid $113.80.  And Peck also selected winning Valentine Daisy on top at 16-1.  This game requires method, preparation and imagination.  Recently, Peck has blended those three things into fine art.

October 31 

Race 1 – Third-finishing firster Asylum was off tepidly from an inside post, rushed up, dueled a bit with the winning 3/5 favorite, dropped back a little on the turn, held evenly thereafter, and pulled up well.  Seven furlongs at Parx could be his game.

Race 2 – Winner Bai Bai Dubai should have been favored off his strong middle distance figures, but instead was dismissed as the 7/2 third choice – perhaps due to his low-profile connections.  He regressed last time stepping well up in class and returning in only seven days, but bounced back here with 29 days between starts.  The additional rest angle can be very effective at the end of a long season.

Race 4 – Deacon Dan had 13 days between starts for his last race, but upset here at 19-1 coming off a 29-day respite.

Race 5 – Firster Voodoo Charm made several runs after breaking slowly, took plenty of dirt, hit a bit of traffic, and still was getting to a more experienced winner at the wire.  He has a versatile pedigree, but don’t be surprised if he matures into a two-turn specialist for a trainer, Greg Sacco, outstanding at stretching out horses.

Race 9 – Dubai Dancer, possessing a strong but late developing pedigree, was workmanlike defeating an average field for her first stakes victory.  Steady rather than brilliant, she should get better with age, appreciate more distance, and be especially effective on the roomier New York tracks.

Breeders’ Cup  

Friday 

Marathon – I didn’t pick him on top or even second, but I just have a nagging suspicion that #1 Atoned is going to run well at a price.  No matter the distance, he’s a horse who needs to be bottled up in traffic for as long as possible before making his run.  The distance, pace and post here could allow that trip.  (I picked #2 Prince Will I Am.)

Juvenile Fillies Turf - #2 Tale Untold has the kind of improving, second-tier Euro profile that fits in Breeders’ Cup races.  #4 Kathmanblu has a huge, sustained finishing kick, but might need longer.  #7 Winter Memories is a super talent, but will be way over bet.

Filly and Mare Sprint - #2 Sara Louise needs a trip, but adores Churchill and has come in this year fresh after being over the top for the same event in 2009.

Juvenile Fillies – The reported scratch of #1 Indian Gracey will slow down the early pace dramatically.  #9 Delightful Mary is on a positive developmental pattern and is in ideal tactical position to grind down #4 Awesome Feather, who’s the horse to beat.

Filly and Mare Turf - #1 Plumania stacks up nicely with the other Euros here on the basis of her strong improvement over the course of the season.  Toss the Arc – it was just a prep for this.  #5 Shared Account will be a big overlay with a chance to get loose and control a dawdling pace.

Distaff (Yes Distaff!) - #9 Acoma loves Churchill dirt and could make the last run in a race that could have multiple lead changes.  If I was starting a broodmare band, her versatility, stamina and pedigree would put her first on my list.

Saturday 

Juvenile Turf - #3 Manitoba supplemented with his Euro connections having first-hand knowledge about the abilities of the other shippers.  Post, distance and ground all should work for him.

Sprint - #11 Atta Boy Roy has super position to sit off an inside duel and beat the deep closers to the punch.

Turf Sprint - #7 Bridgetown will appreciate the shorter distance, firmer ground, and expected less-stressful, middle-moving trip.  He’s still relatively fresh, too.  #13 Tropical Storm can run well at a price if he can secure early tuck.

Juvenile - #9 Rogue Romance has big-time talent on turf, a very acceptable dirt pedigree, and doesn’t have to be as far back as he was last time.  Pace horses predominate in this match-up and he’ll be flying late – if he accepts dirt in his face.

Mile - #5 Delegator has room to improve and has pointed for this race all year.  Jockey Dettori could have a huge Breeders’ Cup.  #7 The Usual Q.T. has a brilliant turn of foot that fits better on firmer ground.

Dirt Mile - #6 Gayego’s victory at Presque Isle last time has held up formwise, he handles dirt, is a natural one-turn miler, and is a real fighter.  He’ll have to run down uncoupled stablemate #12 Vineyard Haven, who looms dominant speed from his perfect draw.

Turf - #8 Dangerous Midge will love the ground, the three turns, and a soft pace he might be able to control.

Classic - #6 Fly Down was tons the best with everything against him at this distance in the Travers.  He must move forward, but will be a big price and ALL the top guns here are vulnerable.

I was at the Breeders’ Cup last year at Santa Anita to see Quality Road (my uncle’s top pick) flip out behind the gate resulting in a late scratch.  In the days after the $5 million scratch, that was the big story in racing – besides Zenyatta winning of course.  First he was scratched behind the gate in the biggest race of the year.  Then he refused to board a plane and had to be vanned cross-country back to New York.  Then he was put through a number of early-morning gate seminars to get his head back.

Wouldn’t it be the perfect storyline if Quality Road were to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2010?  (Again, besides Zenyatta PERFECT 20 for 20 storyline.)  On paper, I don’t think Quality Road is going to love going 1 ¼ miles, and he hasn’t run in a very long time, but it’s hard to argue with his natural talent.  And wouldn’t that “revenge” story just be fitting?

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There are so many racing publications with “expert” selections or “workout reports” that it gets hard to take.  One publication LOVES how a horse is training, another HATES how that same horse has been working.  Basically, the rule of thumb should be to go with your own instincts.  However, one thing that I have heard is that Breeders’ Cup Mile contender Proviso has been training out of her mind recently.  Obviously Goldikova is the one to beat in there, but Proviso has run against her before (finished 4 ½ lengths behind on August 2009), and owns a four-race winning streak.

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Brad and I will be back on Thursday for our last blog before the Breeders’ Cup.  That should be a doozy!

“Dressed up like a million-dollar trooper.  Trying hard to look like Gary Cooper.  (Super Duper!)”

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

On July 20, 1977 my favorite horse who ever lived full-time at Monmouth Park would have lost his debut at even-money if runaway leader Jelly Apple hadn’t bolted on the turn in the 5 ½-furlong maiden special weight race for juveniles.

As it was, Regal and Royal, a sleek son of 1968 Arc winner Vaguely Noble out of 1966 Kentucky Oaks victress and top broodmare Native Street (herself a daughter of once-beaten Native Dancer), ground out a 1 ¼-length graduation.

The experience clearly lit the fuse to brilliance, however, because nine days later the Jimmy Croll trainee sat second early and then blitzed home to a 10-length score over a non-winners of one allowance field.  He ran 5 ½ furlongs in 1:03 4/5 while sizzling the last sixteenth in six seconds flat before August of his 2-year-old season. 

Fifteen days later, Regal And Royal was 9/5 to Alydar’s 3/5 in the Sapling Stakes, but failed to handle the sloppy, sealed surface and finished fourth of five.

But in two weeks, the brown colt showed he could play a top-class game in Saratoga’s Hopeful.  Affirmed and Alydar battled through the stretch with the former triumphing by a half-length.  Finishing boldly, 2 ½ lengths behind Alydar, was Regal And Royal.  The latter had gained more than a length in the final sixteenth of a 6 ½-furlong race (with a final time of 1:15 2/5) run in a rapid 6 1/5 seconds.

Behind the New Jerseyan was Tilt Up, who had made Affirmed work to beat him earlier in the Saratoga meeting in the Sanford, and Darby Creek Road, who later that year in the Champagne would become the only horse to finish closer to Affirmed and Alydar when third behind those super colts in one of their epic juvenile duels.

In three weeks, on September 17, Regal And Royal was even-money in the Dragoon at Keystone (eventually Philadelphia Park and now Parx Racing).  But once again, he failed to fire on wet, sealed dirt and wound up sixth of 11.

Rested until mid-January, Regal And Royal debuted at age three in a non-winners of three lifetime allowance going six furlongs at Hialeah.  He repeated his pattern of perhaps needing one off the bench and finished eighth.

Two weeks later, in his turf debut, Regal And Royal finished last of eight at 4/5 – on a sloppy, sealed racing strip.  Another layoff followed.

His pedigree and early flashes of raw talent made Regal And Royal intriguing to me.  But would he ever mature beyond the limitations of his negative patterns?

On August 23, Regal And Royal returned to action in a non-winners of two allowance going five furlongs on turf at Monmouth Park.  The favorite was older, New York invader First Ambassador.

Sitting mid-pack, Regal And Royal was stopped cold three different times: late on the turn, in upper stretch, and again in mid-lane while raging with run.  Still two lengths back past the eighth pole, he somehow regained momentum and, finally with clearance, absolutely exploded to catch a not-stopping First Ambassador and somehow win by a half-length in 56 4/5.  The track record – in an era when they held up on the Monmouth grass course for more than two weeks at a time – was 56 3/5.  Without traffic, he easily could have run 56-flat.  In the flesh, I’d never seen a horse accelerate like that in my life.  There was more to come.

At Monmouth 12 days later, Regal And Royal was entered in an overnight handicap for 3-year-olds going six furlongs on dirt.  He was the 3/2 favorite against a stellar field that easily was of modern day graded stakes status.  Lined up against him was the gelding North Course – who in 1979 would out-finish champion sprinter Dr. Patches when placed first in a Belmont listed stakes and was a multiple stakes winner going long and short and on dirt and turf, Horatius – a local star and shortly to be the sire of champion sprinter Safely Kept, and high-quality, multiple sprint stakes winners Shelter Half and Tanthem (who would finish 2^nd in the 1980 Carter.)

The ancient chart books of the time don’t carry lines of call for the first quarter miles of the race they record, so my admittedly faulty memory will have to suffice by way of full description.  As I recall, Regal And Royal was at least four or five lengths off the pace after two furlongs, accelerated like a rocket while on the rail on the turn, was in-front by 2 ½ lengths at the half, and continued to draw off through the stretch to win by 6 ½ lengths.  I guess he didn’t bounce.

Three weeks later, Regal And Royal made his Belmont debut in a non-winners of four allowance race while stretching out to 1 1/16 miles.  He repeated his electrifying second quarter move, only going longer, opened up a huge lead, and lasted by one-half length.

Eleven days afterwards Regal And Royal moved up into a money allowance race at Belmont and faced his nemesis – a sloppy, sealed track.  Could he handle it better with added maturity?  Even if he did, could he hold on against quality horses going 1 1/16 miles?

His natural speed allowed Regal And Royal to clear early, and he relaxed better in his second recent route.  He romped.  Nemesis quashed!

Only nine days later, Regal And Royal returned to Belmont for the Jamaica, then run at one mile on dirt.  The day before, Exceller – another son of Vaguely Noble – had beaten Seattle Slew in an epic Jockey Club Gold Cup run in a sea of slop.  The track was still drying out, but was harrowed and wet-fast by post time.

Arrayed against him were hard-hitting closers Squire Ambler, Roman Reasoning, and Dewan Keys; graded stakes winning sprinters Sorry Looking and Moleolus; and similarly rapid-accelerating alter-ego and old friend Darby Creek Road.  The latter, in his last start in the Jerome, had been a fast-closing second – losing by just a neck – to Sensitive Prince, who nearly had beaten Affirmed in his previous start in the Jim Dandy.  Indeed, two starts back, Darby Creek Road had broken the Saratoga track record for seven furlongs by an amazing 3/5ths of a second and his clocking of 1:20 2/5 still stands today.  (And in 1979, Darby Creek Road would beat runner-up John Henry going 1 1/16 miles on turf at level weights in the Sword Dancer.)  Needless to say, the competition was strong and deep.

Regal And Royal battled Moleolus in a cut-throat duel going 22 3/5, 45 2/5, and 1:09 1/5, put him away, and drew clear into Belmont’s long stretch.  However, the pace was extremely fast for how the track played that day and the closers were coming.  But Regal And Royal, despite being in the first real bare-knuckles brawl of his life, showed that he had the inner class to match his shiny veneer.  He held off Squire Ambler by a neck and I cashed the biggest bet I ever had made in my life.

October 30 

Race 1 – First-timer Cherokee Native battled with and put away two more experienced speed horses before succumbing in mid-stretch to two well-seasoned closers.

Race 2 – Alcatraz was hard-used following a troubled start in his first try against winners and can continue to improve with an outside draw.

Race 3 – Anchorsawaymydear was a decisive winner at an overlayed 9/2 price.  The second-timer was well-rested but working strongly following a middle-moving effort against better in her debut and was switching to jockey Paco Lopez.  This was classic trainer Ed Plesa management. 

Race 4 – Also-ran Talking Flirt flashed much-improved speed and staying power at 122-1.  She could be a deep exotics factor, at least, in a weak race or two before the meet ends.  Her trainer, Charlie Harvatt, won the 11^th race at “only” 120-1.

Race 5 – Relatively new journeyman Angel Serpa continues to impress.  Yes, the rail post C Street drew here helped facilitate a perfect inside trip, but Serpa’s cool handling negotiating traffic made prime use of his built-in advantage.

Race 6 – Also-ran Vallizzie had yet another off-slow, hustle up, hit traffic, and then finish evenly journey from a relative inside post.  She can make a big forward move when a well-outside draw allows her to make one run.

Race 7 – Last-finishing Max’s First battled through intense fractions against tough open horses off a layoff.  He can be very dangerous off that tightener if he drops into New Jersey-bred optional company.

Race 8 – Y To Kat was a dull last at 4/5 versus similar last time coming off a series of very good but closely-clustered performances.  More rest (four weeks) and three works, however, had her primed for her best.  Credit trainer Lloyd Kromann with adjusting to the situation and putting his filly in position to win a big state-bred purse before the season winds down.

Race 9 – Teaks North is all athlete and truly as versatile as trainer Justin Sallusto always has maintained.  The gelding handles turf or dirt, runs inside and outside, and blends good cruising speed, decent acceleration, and legitimate stamina.  He can continue to improve.

            Runner-up Cactus Charlie loves to be outside, but his extremely wide journey here bordered on the absurd.  He’s probably one of the top three non-winners of one eligible routers in the country – along with …

            …Third-finishing Southern Ridge, who was rated into submission on or near the lead for the third-straight time in a race lacking real pace.  The colt’s strength is his multiple bursts and gears.  Grinding slugfests squander his assets without producing benefit.  Sending him would put his gears in play from the start, taking him way back would allow his acceleration to be uncorked without any early drainage, but hedging merely cramps his style.

Race 10 – Smart Tori meshed her already once successful turf-to-dirt more with a meaningful drop in class for underrated trainer Kathy Mongeon.  Third-finishing Tani’s Dixie Tune, first-time conditioner Bruce Alexander, ran too good to loose dueling the favorite into submission in fast fractions while also racing against a strong grain.

Race 11 – A much-improved pace figure routing last time for Believe In West signaled that this 120-1 winner was moving forward.  As the low-level ranks continue to thin late in the year, ‘tis the season to believe in longshots if they’re fit and show even a glimmer of life.

• Definitely a fan of the new 50-cent minimum wager on Pick 3’s and Pick 4’s.  I know a lot of horseplayers disagree with this change, but for someone like me – with a relatively small bankroll – this makes the difference between playing the Pick 4 and not. 

• According to the Daily Racing Form, Informed Decision is the 5-1 second choice to win the Filly & Mare Sprint.  After watching her run this year, I would be shocked to see her in the Churchill Downs winner’s circle on Friday, Nov. 6.  She clearly has lost a step or three.

• I’m a little down on Warrior’s Rewards connection’s decision to run in the BC Sprint over the Dirt Mile.  The horse would prefer seven furlongs, and I would have preferred eight over six given the choice.  Hopefully – and assumingly – his connections know more than I do.  I imagine it’s going to be tough to win the Sprint from last, however.  If it’s not Warrior’s Reward, how about Big Drama?

• Musket Man is listed at 20-1 in the Classic field by Daily Racing Form.  The notes beside him say, “Can run, but has lots of layoffs; distance looks too far.”  First off, he has lots of layoffs because he doesn’t like to run in the heat and took the summer off.  Secondly, he was a closing third in last year’s Kentucky Derby over that track and distance.  And thirdly, yes he can run.  (Hey, second or third at 30-1 will pay nicely!)

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This is the last Monmouth Park Blog before Halloween.  What a brilliant holiday.  Everyone has the right to look completely ridiculous, knock on strange people’s doors, and have those people give you free candy.  Only in America I guess!  (Is Halloween celebrated in other countries?)  Anyway, there will be plenty of festivities here at the track for those of you who want to bring the kids out for a fun day.  But whether you’re reading the blog from near or far, all of you should celebrate All Hallows Eve (or something like that) with the top five Halloween songs of all time:

5) She Blinded Me With Science by Thomas Dolby – Is it a Halloween song?  Debatable.  But it’s weird sounding, the guy in the music video just looks strange, and I find it hilarious.  She blinded me …WITH SCIENCE!

4) Puttin On the Ritz by Taco – This version was a remake of the original and is much more Halloween sounding.  Again, maybe not a Halloween song per say, but creepy…oh, I think so!!

3) Somebody’s Watching Me by Rockwell featuring Michael Jackson – Another creepy one.  The guy is standing in the shower in this music video.  I’d say that qualifies it as the third best Halloween song of all-time.

2) Thriller by Michael Jackson – Do I really need to explain this one?  It’s only on every Halloween CD ever made.

1) The Monster Mash by Bobby Picket – This one is also obvious, but has to top the list. 

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Saturday, October 23 

Race 1 – A classic break well, ease back to press, let others fight, and then attack ride by Chuck C. Lopez on Brahman, who had squandered his speed previously when winging on a loose lead at Belmont.  The colt’s good gate skills and ability to relax bode well for possible over-achievement on the stretch out.  Conversely, runner-up Value Added Tax only just missed by a nose, but he hung badly after making the lead and his pedigree slants to the precocious and speedy.

Race 2 – Miss Tallahassee, the 5-1 winner, dropped significantly to the main track basement with turf speed figures that fit if she could replicate them on dirt.  Both her previous career wins had come on the latter surface, however, thus it was no surprise that she was able to make the transition successfully.  Pay attention to her profile – with the turf season over locally and the meet’s closing day within sight, other very live horses will be looking to imitate her.

Race 3 – Third-finishing Red Vow continued his strong improving pattern, especially pace figurewise, despite stepping up in class.  He dueled with dropdowns while stepping up in class himself and only yielded for second in the closing strides.

Race 4 – Jockey Paco Lopez probably expected to be closer early on 1.30-1 favorite Gramdstander, but the colt was bumped out of the gate and well back early.  Lopez allowed the long-strider to gather himself and build momentum on his own before asking hard in the final 3/16ths.  It was a clinic on how to ride a low-end horse to victory when things don’t go according to plan.

Race 6 – Popular gelding Goodness Greycious was claimed for the fifth time since July 2 – and re-claimed for the second time.  He’s an earner and a tryer, but I bet he has some personality to him as well!

            The abrupt change of pace despite cutting well back in distance by 4^th-finishing, second-time blinkers Tappintovictory was intriguing.  The gelding gunned to the lead despite breaking tepidly from the rail and dueled hard through live splits while on a dull inside.  Historically, his barn had been adept at changing distances, but not necessarily in the first start following the switch.  An outside post next time would allow Tappintovictory to use his newly-discovered foot in a more controlled way.

Race 7 – Bert B Don’s big experience edge over his rivals showed in a workmanlike maiden breaker.  Fourth-finishing New Jersey-bred second-timer Silent Appeal dueled on the worst part of the track and only gave way grudgingly late for the place.  In his debut versus state-breds, the colt battled with two of the top New Jersey-bred juveniles of the season in Uncle Otto, who subsequently won a Delaware restricted stakes, and Porcini Prince, who graduated last week at 1/5 odds.  In the hands of ultra-patient trainer John Tammaro, III, don’t be surprised if Silent Appeal has significant room to improve third-time out in the New Jersey Juvenile on November 13.

Race 8 – Cass, the runner-up at 12-1, improved sharply on her previous dirt form when returning to state-bred company after four open turf routes.  This was a variation of the late-season pattern discussed for the second race.  After a very long year, many turf-raced horses, while competing on a less stressful surface, still have the benefit of good foundation and can prove fresher and even fitter than their primarily dirt-raced competition.  This often compensates for lesser raw dirt talent when they return to that surface as the year winds down.

Race 9 – Another stellar job developing a young horse by trainer Kelly Breen.  Sweet Ducky moved way forward in his second route start and was the only pure, front-end winner on the 11-race card.  A lithe athlete who’s pliable mentally and highly rateable despite also being speedy, Sweet Ducky is perfectly suited by the tight turns at Delta Downs as he points to that track’s Jackpot Stakes.  On the other hand, runner-up Curlinello spun his wheels yet again as he tried to negotiate Monmouth’s medium-sized oval.  (Interestingly, Curlin – also a son of Smart Strike and apparently the inspiration for this colt’s name – also had trouble with the local layout in the Haskell before successfully adjusting to it in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  So Curlinello is no Curlin.  So what!  He’s still pretty nice!)  Curlinello showed gears and decent acceleration going seven furlongs in his debut at Saratoga and just might need a bigger track, more distance, and possibly an equipment change or two to show his best at the stakes level.  Don’t give up on him yet!

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While the strength of some of this year’s Breeders’ Cup races seems to be coming up a bit light by world championship standards, the return of the contests to real dirt, turf likely with some true give to it, both main and grass courses of larger dimensions, and a climate with actual seasons more than mitigates any qualitative concerns.  Horseplayers should point to the Breeders’ Cup weekend like a Roger Attfield-trained horse to a New York stakes race!

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The often inaccurate, inconsistent, and handicapping unfriendly official designations for dirt racing surfaces are bad enough, but wet weather at times this year also has called attention to similar problems with turf course listings at some venues.  A big part of it is the differences between what track superintendents look for in making designations and what horseplayers are concerned about.  As a bettor, I care about moisture level and whether the surface is harrowed or sealed on dirt and extent of give in the ground on turf.  I want consistent evaluations from one day to another, one season to another, and from one track to another.  I don’t want to be told that what currently can pass for “firm” in the fall is the same as sun-baked in the summer or that a bit wet in August will have as much give as a drying out lawn in October.  If handicappers want the job done right, they should do it themselves.  Keep your own records, be skeptical, see how much dirt clings to trailing horses, or how many big clods of grass are kicked back, and use a blend of gut feeling and common sense.  In the long run, you’ll find a little bit of work can pave the way to big rewards.

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The parallels relating the recent disputes between regular television networks and cable providers to horse racing issues between host tracks and simulcast sites are a bit eerie.  In each case, the originator of the product incurs most of the production expenses, but has found its share of the profits being squeezed by perceived low fees and the general economic climate.  Both regular television channels and host tracks would like to raise the rates they charge to their distributors to make up for this.  However, a big stumbling block is that the original pricing model in each case was set too low.  Year ago, cable and simulcast fees were seen as “found” money.  The rapid expansion of cable and simulcast business, as well as how fragmented the respective audiences would become when exposed to increased choices, came as a big surprise.  Since regular TV and host tracks likely valued their product too cheaply at the beginning, it has become very difficult to raise rates dramatically to get – in the eyes of the providers – fair value.  The lesson for horseplayers is not to devalue their wagering dollars by squandering them on short-term, seemingly sure-thing underlays when there’s so many opportunities to find properly-priced overlays in the long term.

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Read someone the other day who implied that, maybe, in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Zenyatta could go off at odds around 8/5 or more and Quality Road at 8-1.  Personally, I don’t think there’s a chance either winds up near those prices.  Zenyatta has developed such a cult following among both regular players and casual fans, I doubt very much she’ll be any higher than 6/5.  And while many handicappers might doubt Quality Road at 1 ¼ miles, his consistency, high speed figures, top-shelf connections, and obvious first-rate quality are unlikely to allow his odds to exceed 5-1.  If anyone in the Classic is dismissed at a hugely overlayed price, it just might be Haynesfield, who’ll be perceived as a one-shot wonder and Belmont specialist.  He also could be lone speed.

We apologize to all of you out there who set your alarms by the MP Blog, but we're spent.  Brad and I will be back on Thursday to - among other things - start the countdown to the Breeders' Cup.

Blind Luck will not win the Ladies Classic.  (First off, I told you these predictions would be bold…get it bold…as in darker…oh well, I tried.)  Let’s start on Breeders’ Cup Friday where 3-year-old filly Blind Luck is the likely favorite in the Classic.  Currently, she’s one of the leading candidates for Horse of the Year, and that actually may turn out to be her downfall in this race.  She’s been running her little heart out in every race this year – in California, in Kentucky, and back and forth.  Other than the two months following last year’s Breeders’ Cup, Blind Luck really hasn’t that much “off” time.  She’ll need another one of her A+ efforts at Churchill Downs to take down the Ladies Classic field (which will include older fillies and mares).  That might turn out to be too much to ask after such a tough campaign.

Warrior’s Reward win will either the Sprint or the Dirt Mile.  I haven’t heard either way which race he is running in yet, but I believe whichever it is, Warrior’s Reward – currently 12-1 on the Daily Racing Form’s line for both races – will win.  (I’ll admit, I would have more confidence if he ran in the Dirt Mile.)  The basis of this prediction: Churchill Downs is Warrior’s Reward’s home track.  I believe Warrior’s Reward is vastly underrated.  And, well, I guess that’s it.  In either race he’ll be last early, but mowing them down late.  

Neither Uncle Mo nor Boys at Tosconova will win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  They’ll be far and away the two favorites, and I don’t think either will win.  It is the Breeders’ Cup after all!  How many times have we seen a big favorite come into a race and end up with minor awards at best?  I can think of Dylan Thomas.  I can think of Bernardini.  I can think of Henny Hughes.  Uncle Mo will likely be a heavy favorite.  He’s run only twice in his life – never around two turns.  Boys as Tosconova has never gone two bends and will not have raced since September 6.  I don’t have any predictions on who will win – I’m just saying I don’t think it will be either of these two.

European horses will sweep the superfecta in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.  Provided that at least four Europeans enter the Turf, I believe it will be some combination of across-the-pond talent that will take the top four spots.  The closest American turf horse will finish fifth, beaten about 10 lengths.  All summer/fall, we’ve seen Europeans come over to North America and dominate turf races.  And not even the classiest Euros.  Chincon won the United Nations.  Gio Ponti was no match in the Arlington Million.  And this past weekend at Woodbine was just a joke.  The Euros are just too good right now.       

The Yankees will win Game 7 of the ALCS if it gets that far.  I hate the Yankees and Cliff Lee is a god.  But I’ve seen this one too many times to dismiss them.  All the talk has been that the Yankees are done.  Cliff Lee was unreal in Game 3 and there’s no way the Yankees can beat him in Game 7.  Come on.  As much as I would love to see them lose, they’re still the Yankees.  They will have some guy named Andy Pettite on the mound.  Baseball is a crazy game, and if the Rangers get too complacent with Cliff Lee pitching in Game 7, they’ll be fishing before they know it.  Hopefully the Rangers can wrap it up in Game 6 and we won’t have to worry about it.    

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Monmouth Park – October 17 

Race 1 – Fourth-finishing Sounds Appealing (57-1) continued his subtle improvement off an equally subtle drop to the absolute basement.  Staying closer to the pace than ever before, he held his ground throughout behind three rivals who had sharp recent form against much better.  Sounds Appealing’s barn has come alive at huge prices in recent weeks and he just needs the conditioned ranks to thin a bit more to have an upset chance himself.

Race 3 – Fifth-finishing Say It With A Kiss was compromised by inside position (not her favorite place in general and not the best part of the track if you were pinned there throughout) in her needed last against a strong field for the level.  She needs a drop and a field with more pace, but also note whether her shrewd barn, which often changes jockeys, keeps Marquez, a perfect fit for her style, on board.

Race 4 – Fifth-finishing John’s Pic bounced back to his A-Game, but had little to show for it after dueling with a big dropdown till upper stretch.  Pace match-ups are everything for the veteran gelding so pay attention for the time when his potential early rivals are other habitual, bottom-rung denizens.

Race 5 – Fifth-finishing Bombardo has plenty of pedigree for a New Jersey-bred, but raced greenly in his debut.  Still, he finished decently and pulled up strongly.  Perhaps he takes after his sire and will prefer routing.

            Sixth-finishing In Free now has been off slowly in both starts before launching strong moves on the backstretch into the turn.  He has more talent than his running line shows literally.  An outer more post could help his break while a drop to open maiden claimers could give him weaker finishers to attack.

Race 7 – Third-finishing Green’s Hard Ten stayed in maiden specials off the bench, but changed her style by dropping well off the pace and finishing well.  It was a good prelude to stretching out on turf – a surface for which she has a live pedigree on both sides.

            Fourth-finishing Salary Drive showed more early foot in her debut than one might have expected given her pedigree and patient connections.  A longer one turn – at a different venue – and/or two turns could be in her future.

Sometimes you’ve gone a long time between big scores and really need a good bang for your buck.  That’s where I was at in October of 1992, but I knew I’d soon be able to relieve the pressure.  The Canadian International was being run that day at Woodbine and I knew – really, truly knew – that there was a home run in my immediate future.

In those days, little information about European racing generally was available to North American horseplayers.  Whereas now a classy European usually will be bet appropriately in the American pari-mutuels, in the 1990’s, huge, real value was to be had if you had the knowledge to distinguish top-shelf imports from the generic brands.

I made it a point to learn all I could – all year-round – about European racing because I already had discovered that the time and effort could reap big dividends.  And I was sure that they would again.

The Canadian International favorite was a horse named Snurge.  He was a decent enough animal, but he wasn’t an athlete who loved to win and he certainly wasn’t on the improve.  On the other hand, an underrated United States threat was a blossoming 3-year-old named Ghazi.  But neither one of them was going to be the winner.  That honor would go to Wiorno.

The latter was trained by Frenchman Andre Fabre, who was a relative unknown at the time in North America.  It wouldn’t be until the next year (1993) when Fabre would gain much-deserved international acclaim with Arcangues – “He’s 99-1!” – in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  But I knew how good Fabre was.  How he had specifically pointed the steadily improving Wiorno for this very race all year long.  How the horse had endured a series of tough set-ups and trips against very strong company while using his adversities as building blocks for a toughened, hardened, fully-finished equine product.  Wiorno could not lose against this comparatively moderate field – especially on a Woodbine turf course as soft, deep and demanding as a peat bog.  He was 13-1.

I played him to win and keyed him first and second in exactas and trifectas that also used Ghazi and Snurge heavily.  If Wiorno won and Ghazi, at similar odds, was in the triple, I would need a suitcase.

Ghazi led into the stretch fighting hard as Snurge ranged up on the outside and Wiorno’s seemingly perfect, inside pocket trip threatened to evolve into a boxed-in nightmare.  Past the eighth pole, all three horses were in very close quarters struggling and straining through the quagmire with huge divots flying amongst them.  Wiorno still couldn’t get out.

Jockey Thierry Jarnet had to do something.  Passing the sixteenth pole, Jarnet wedged his way through a tight hole.  There was contact.  Jarnet and Wiorno simply made their own room in a survival-of-the-fittest situation that should have been the embodiment of what championship horse racing is all about.  Nobody was impeded or even knocked off stride.  It was three guys going for a rebound and one coming down with the ball.  No harm, no foul.  At the wire the result was Wiorno first, Snurge second, and Ghazi third.

Nothing happened for minutes.  Then the lights began to blink.  They flashed for at least a quarter of an hour.

In those early years of simulcasting, before full-card transmissions became the norm, tracks would take other venue’s big races as part of their own card and actually post the finish numbers on the tote board.  As the tension mounted during the interminable wait, I paced around the television monitors to the front of the Grandstand and looked out toward the infield.  Suddenly, the tote board stopped blinking.  The numbers stayed in place.  For a minute.  One full, solid, entire minute.  Then all the numbers disapperard.  For a minute.  Torture!  Finally, a new set appeared.  Snurge first, Ghazi second, and Wiorno a useless third.

Why is this a tough game?  Great research.  Sharp insight.  Aggressive playing.  The right result.  What did it all add up to?  Nothing!  No, not nothing.  A big, reeking financial and emotional hit!

I left the track in a daze.  Maybe I shouldn’t come back for a while.  A long while.  Take a break.  Monmouth Battlefield State Park looks awfully nice at this time of year.  But I did sneak a look at the next day’s racing.  Believe it or not, Fabre and Jarnet had the distaff version of under-the-radar monster Wiorno running in the Long Island at Belmont.  Her name was Villandry.

I went.  She won.  At 5 or 6-1.  No blinking lights.  Not Wiorno’s price, but when you take a hit, it’s good to come up swinging.

Horseplaying is a merry-go-round.  Get on or get off.  But if you choose to mount up, you better be prepared to ride hard through thorny brush, peaks and valleys, and a finishing wire extended over a hole in the ground.

Saturday Notes 

Race 2 - Trainer Jennie Mesenbrink had Belle Dorada in fine form recently, but the mare had been plagued by tough pace match-ups.  Here, new jockey Chuck C. Lopez did a superb job changing her style for the better.  Anchored out of the gate, Belle Dorada rated and then rallied with an enthusiasm suggesting more sharp races are on the way for the suddenly and dangerously versatile gray.  And who ever said Lopez is just a speed jockey?  He’s always been very underrated as a middle-mover.

Race 3 – Runner-up Miami Hammer and jockey Paco Lopez were disqualified and placed third on a very marginal foul.  The two finished a decisive 3 ¾ lengths ahead of alleged victim Brimstone And Fire.  Karma can be an interesting thing.  If Lopez had served his accumulated suspension days in a timely and contrite fashion instead of appealing and delaying, would a close call have gone differently?  I don’t think ANYONE really knows.

Race 5 – Trainer Paul Kopaj continued his outstanding work with New Jersey-bred firster Tricky Change scoring at 5-1 while racing on the lead against a stiff backstretch headwind and over a surface unkind to that style.  The filly has speed, a degree of class, and, with her pedigree, perhaps a turf sprint option in her future.

Race 7 – Kelly Breen trainee I Love It was professional in overcoming traffic to wear down a moderate field for his maiden victory.  Grass is his game – the longer the better – but Belmont-based To Honor And Serve’s 8 ¾-length defeat of him on dirt previously is yet another indicator of that Bill Mott charge’s quality.

Brian Skirka’s Sunday Sum-Up 

I figured I’d let Brad take the lead today and follow his samplings with a tough beat of my own that happened…um, YESTERDAY!!

In the third leg of the late Pick 4 at Charles Town Saturday night, I had the 1-5 entry (including Charles Town monster Russell Road) singled.  The race was a lock.  I was alive to the final leg. 

For the first six furlongs of the nine-furlong race, Russell Road sat in second just outside the speed.  Before the field entered the far turn, Russell Road’s stablemate made a premature move to the lead – forcing Russell Road’s hand.  The stablemate then cut off Russell Road as the field entered the stretch.  Awesome!  About two strides before the wire, a 56-1 shot ran down the stablemate.  Really awesome!  Heaven forbid a 1-5 shot wins for me.  Oh well, that’s what makes horse racing so exciting.  Did I say exciting – I meant frustrating.

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By the way, how about those European turf horses at Woodbine?  The Americans might as well not even show up to the Breeders’ Cup Turf.  Just save your entry fee money and move on.   

5) That Hour Between the Scratches Being Announced and the First Race – This was always the time when I did my main handicapping for the day.  Back then, I would look at the card the day before to get an idea of who was running, but not really handicap the races until the day of.  I remember sitting in the Grandstand with my pen listening to Larry Collmus call out the day’s scratches.  And from that time until 12:50 pm it was ‘go time’ in terms of handicapping.  No talking, no sightseeing, just work.

4) The Paddock Trip – Whether it was for the Haskell itself or another race in which we liked a horse, the trip to the paddock was always fun.  There’s so much going on there.  You get to see how your horse looks.  You get to see how the trainer looks (I always preferred suits).  You get to see what odds your horse opens at.  And I always found it fun in the paddock to kind of whisper about your horse or keep it a secret knowing that the people standing around you are your opposition and you don’t want them stealing your information.

3) The First Winner, aka Lunch – Following the Skirka family rules at the track, you didn’t eat until you picked a winner.  (Hey, no one likes to celebrate a loss!)  If you had a good day, it was a nice Italian feast on the way home.  If you had a bad day, it was ice cream sandwiches and Doritos at a local gas station.  Following these rules, it was always fun to get that first winner of the day and run right to the hot dog stand.

2) The Crowd Rises as One – For any big race, the most exciting part – to me – is when the horses come around the far turn and the whole crowd rises in unison.  Maybe the favorite is making a big run from behind.  Maybe a key contender is stuck in traffic.  On the far turn, usually most of the horses still have a shot at winning and everyone still has something to cheer about.  To sit in those stands all day waiting for your one big play, and then to see him catapulting past horses on the turn, with the crowd standing and screaming – that part always gave me goosebumps.

1) Ladies and Gentlemen, Please Rise – For some reason, my favorite part of the day came before most people were even at the track.  Before the horses come to the paddock, before the handicapping seminars, and sometimes before you could even buy a program, everyone rises and the gentlemen remove their caps for the singing of our national anthem.  There’s just something about the playing of the Star Spangled Banner that gets my juices flowing on a big day.  It did when I played baseball, it did when I went to the track for a big day as a fan, and it still does on Saturdays when I do the handicapping seminar.  If I wanted to I could sit in my office now and head out for the seminar after the anthem is over.  But I always try to get out there for that little bit of added adrenaline.  And it was always the perfect start to a big day at the track.

Horses to Watch this Weekend 

Each week we get closer and closer to Breeders’ Cup time, but the major stakes races around the country seemingly keep coming.  A bunch more this weekend, so here a some horses to keep an eye out for:

Valid Sum (Saturday, 8^th race, Monmouth) – We’ll start out at home in Saturday’s Eillo Stakes here at Monmouth.  With Jersey legend Joey P. in the field (but coming off a long layoff), you might be able to get a decent price on this 4-year-old who has two wins at Monmouth this year and has been facing considerably tougher recently.

Tottie (Saturday, 8^th race, Belmont) – She can be close up, she can be far back.  Either way she comes running.  Cuts back in distance Saturday, but should be right there at the wire.

Check the Label (Saturday, 9^th race, Keeneland) – I’ve been on this filly for a while now and she hasn’t lost for me yet.  Saturday might be the day to get a decent price on her with top Cali shipper Evening Jewel and Euro import Zagora in the field.  (That would be a European in an American turf race – watch out.)

Grand Adventure (Saturday, 8^th race, Woodbine) – He started his year just missing behind Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint main contender Silver Timber.  He then won two graded stakes in a row at Woodbine.  He then lost at 1 1/8 miles (too long) and in the Woodbine Mile (from post 13).  He’s 10-1 on the morning line and much better posted here.  (There’s three Euros in this American turf race – watch out.)

Akarlina (Saturday, 10^th race, Woodbine) – She’s a European in an American turf race (watch out), she’s improving, and she’s won her last two “comfortably” and “handily” according to her past performances.

"Box the Four Euros" (Saturday, 11^th race, Woodbine) – They’re Europeans in an…oh, you get the idea.  Maybe (a big maybe) Marsh Side can get second or third (and that’s only if the track comes up wet), but the quartet of Euros in this race seem dominant compared to the Americans. 

Lighthouse Sound (Sunday, 10^th race, Monmouth) – He’s been running against much better recently and has shown good versatility in the past.  He also has an Elite Summer Meet win over this turf course on his resume.

Violon Sacre (Sunday, 8^th race, Belmont) – Presious Passion will likely be running early, Violon Sacre will likely be running late.  Who knows how good he could be if he ever learns to pay attention early in races instead of throwing his head every which way.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

A couple weeks ago, I wrote about some things I liked.  Well, now that gives me license to talk about some stuff I don’t!

• People whining about confusing regulations and uncertain time frames for testing clean on drugs legal for training but not on race day.  Years ago, I was a proponent for legalizing Lasix.  I was wrong.  Now it appears that at least 95% of all United States-raced Thoroughbreds are considered legitimate bleeders.  Either the standard is way too low, or the breed is even further decayed and diluted than even the most ardent pessimist believes.  For-training-only drugs similarly are used at astronomical levels.  Are they really, truly necessary on such an every day basis?  If they were virtually eliminated, trainers wouldn’t have to worry about regulations and time frames.  Sure, veterinarians’ earnings would take a hit.  But then owners – free of huge medication expenses – might actually be in a position to acquire – and maintain – more horses.  And isn’t that in everybody’s best interests?

• Connections of horses saying some form of, “He has to win this race to go to the Breeders’ Cup.”  Suppose he runs great and finishes second, third or even fourth?  You’re still not going to go?  Get a grip!  And sometimes a horse wins and shouldn’t go.  It’s just plain silly to put subjectively objective, unbreakably breakable parameters on a decision concerning a game with so many variables.  Let the dust settle, think a little, and make the call based on a full-color mural rather than a black and white sketch.

• The many good handicappers who sheepishly and apologetically refer to a selection that’s not among the favorites as  a “value-based” pick.  Folks, grow a set of vocal chords!  Virtually saying you’re sorry for not selecting the likeliest winner is like apologizing for winning the Belmont Stakes while thwarting someone else’s Triple Crown bid.  A pick, any pick, that isn’t value is worthless in the long term – as is a Triple Crown that didn’t stand up to everybody’s best shot.  Any selection or bet anybody ever makes SHOULD be value in the eyes of the handicapper whether 4-5 or 100-1.  And many times, 100-1’s are not value while 4-5’s are.  The trick to successful horseplaying is integrating chances of winning with potential pari-mutuel returns rather than distinguishing between the two. 

Grade II Monmouth Cup – I’ll be honest.  I thought Musket Man would win easily and couldn’t envision him not hitting the wire first.  Well, I was wrong.  Talking to jockey Eibar Coa after the race, he said Musket Man has always been the type of horse that can’t get to the front too soon.  Coa said, even in workouts, Musket Man gets confused when he strikes the front.  According to his rider, Musket Man displayed a very strong turn of foot (he was motoring past horses on the far turn), but actually reached the front too soon, and didn’t really know what to do when he got there.  Coa said he recommended to Musket Man’s connections that the horse still be pointed to the Breeders’ Cup.  With the likes of Quality Road and Haynesfield in the Classic, Musket Man will definitely have a target to run at.  For $5 million, I think it’s worth a shot.

Grade III Woodford (Keeneland) – I decided against betting this race because it was simply too hard.  I didn’t even watch.  But I did notice that Silver Timber, who would have been my top pick, won at 4-1.  That stung a little.  I at least would have watched if I knew he was going to go off at 4-1.  I will definitely be watching when he runs in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – I just hope I didn’t miss my wagering opportunity.  This horse is good.

Grade I First Lady (Keeneland) – Speaking of good horses, where did Proviso come from to win this race.  She’s clearly a woman amongst girls (does that even make any sense?) and may be pointed to the BC Mile against males.  While Goldikova and the other Euros will likely to tough to beat in there, Proviso (if she can stay out of traffic trouble) may be the best hope the American’s have along with…

Grade I Shadwell Turf Mile – It was hard to see because he was inside of Society’s Chairman, but could Gio Ponti have won this race any easier?  Two things from this race – obviously Gio Ponti is the best turf horse in America (but could be a victim of traffic rallying from well back in the BC Mile), and Society’s Chairman moves WAY up around two turns.  Too bad he spends the summers at Woodbine.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

I didn’t pick Etched first, second or third for the Grade II Monmouth Cup and obviously I was badly wrong.  However, I did make him the 5-2 second choice in the morning line.  While I also was mistaken in the morning line’s primary function of guess-timating what prices horses actually will be, I do think I was dead-on in evaluating what odds Etched SHOULD have been.  His only defeats in eight previous starts were off a layoff in the UAE and in a very deep 14-horse field in last year’s Grade II Clark – a race that should have been a Grade I.  Heck, Etched even won the 2009 version of the Monmouth Cup, which was run at the Meadowlands.  The fact that he went off at better than 7-1 was amazing, but even more amazing was the opportunity afforded to alert and flexible players to get way more than double of what was fair value on a top-class, fully viable contender.  When I’m working, job constraints prevent me from wagering late in the day and I’m stuck with whatever I’ve done in advance.  But the next time I’m in the real world of horseplaying, I sure hope I’m able to adjust my preconceived notions the next time such a potentially lucrative windfall comes along.  Long-term, successful horseplaying demands that one theoretically is willing to key virtually any horse in any race – as long as the prices are right.  It’s not about the likeliest possibilities, but it’s all about the greatest disparities between rates of returns and actual chances!

And by the way, maybe his pedigree doesn’t cry marathon, but stylistically Etched is all about rhythm and long distances.  He lacks gears and acceleration, but he out-galloped quality rivals Chirac and Duke of Mischief and was grinding away from near top-class Musket Man in the final yards.  He’s a Breeders’ Cup horse to me – just not a Classic.

Trip Notes 

October 3 

Race 6 – Red Vow was hung wide again when too much speed drew to his inside, but held well despite working hard to stay in range.  The colt will be third off a layoff next time.

October 9 

Race 2 – Fivecarrotsparkle improved cutting back with blinkers back on and was the best finisher of those involved in a contentious early pace.  A wet surface would give her an edge at this current level.

Race 5 – Sinatra’s Dancer moved forward on the stretch-out for his new barn despite hard use on a dullish rail.  Gelding has a late-developing pedigree and plenty of room to improve.

Last Weekend’s Leftovers 

Havre De Grace held off Blind Luck in the Grade II Cotillion in receipt of 10 pounds while going 1 1/16 miles over a standard mile strip.  In the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, the weights will be level or nearly so, the distance will be 1 1/8 miles, and the Churchill stretch will be seriously long.  Oh, and 5-year-old Life At Ten will apply far sterner late second-turn pressure on Havre De Grace than did the hopelessly overmatched Bonnie Blue Flag and Absinthe Minded at Parx.

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Wasn’t inspired by Belmont’s Grade III Pilgrim for 2-year-old turf males, but Grade III Miss Grillo victress Winter Memories could be on the road to freakdom.  Still, respect (as an exotics factor, at least) third-finishing Fancy Point, who had pace and bias against her and likely will appreciate firmer ground and two real turns in Kentucky.  Still, watch the bandwagon fill to underplayed overflow on Winter Memories!

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Grade I Norfolk winner Jaycito has the straight-on bouncy action of a pure synthetic specialist.  Maybe he’ll turf, but dirt…?

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Grade I Oak Leaf upsetter Rigoletta is a steady, middle distance oriented bulldog who reminds me of over-achieving sire Concerto.  Runner-up Tell A Kelly has the build and style of a stretch-running, one-turn filly.

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The finishing run of Grade I Clement L. Hirsch victor Champ Pegasus looks quite decent – until you check the past performances of runner-up Where’s the Remote, who kicked even stronger and would have beaten the former if the race had been at the Breeders’ Cup Turf distance of 1 ½ miles.

This Weekend’s First Impressions 

Uncle Mo moved way forward from his over-hyped, no-straw-in-his-path debut with a dominant score in the Grade I Champagne.  The only inside-all-the-way winner from five Belmont dirt races, he withstood some pace pressure and a somewhat legitimate middle-mover while finishing genuinely strong.  Just as importantly, he appeared to have progressed physically from August.  His stride says longer is okay, but it’s so bouncy one wonders if he might even be better on synthetic.  He’s a legit Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favorite – but still not the best long-term true distance prospect I’ve seen this year.

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Sure, the giving Belmont turf has been extremely closer friendly this week, but Prince Will I Am’s last-to-first rally in the Grade I Jamaica truly was sick, crazy and ridiculous.  He is a very serious BC Turf candidate for 2011.

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Gio Ponti was professional in his Grade I Shadwell Turf Mile score at Keeneland, but returnee, third-finishing Courageous Cat got what he needed.  The latter is a heavy horse who’s hard to get fully fit off works alone.  He made a quality run to spurt away from Grade II caliber Get Stormy before coming up short late.  Expect a big forward move at Churchill.

In terms of racing fans (and I distinguish between ‘fans’ and ‘players’ because there is a difference), Zenyatta has done more for our sport than any marketing initiative I’ve ever heard of.  Would Hollywood have gotten 20,000 fans this Saturday for a hat giveaway?  Would the crowd reaction to last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic have been as raucous if it was another horse in front?  Would Oprah ever mention horse racing on her show because of a buy-one, get-one-free coupon to Del Mar?  The answer to all of those questions is a resounding no – and the only reason those things took place is because of Zenyatta. 

Would I have liked to see the big mare race on the East Coast?  Of course I would have.  But I’m not going to degrade her abilities because she never ran at Belmont Park.  She’s undefeated in 19 career starts.  She’s won 13 Grade I races.  And she is the best thing about our sport right now.  For that, I will root for her in every race she ever runs – because right now, our sport needs all the help it can get!

As has been well documented on this blog, I became a serious fan of horse racing because of one horse (Hotstufanthensome).  My brother has grown to become a fan of racing because of two horses (Curlin and Musket Man).  Maybe that’s why I feel more connected to the animal athletes as opposed to those who see them as a set of numbers on a past performance sheet.  Horse racing is a game based on gambling – that is obviously true.  But horse racing also has stars.  No one celebrates the oranges on a slot machine or the dice at a craps table.  But in horse racing, you can root for who you’re gambling on, as opposed to just hoping your number comes in. 

Zenyatta is a champion.  She’s never lost.  I honestly believe that she has evolved to the point where she is smart enough to only run as hard as she has to to win.  If she weren’t a tremendous animal, she would have lost once by now.  19-for-19 doesn’t happen by accident.  And in terms of storylines and publicity for our sport (putting gambling aside), everyone out there should be rooting for her to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.           

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While it’s not exactly the onslaught of Grade I action that October 2 was, this Saturday’s national stakes schedule is another strong one.  In a special treat for live fans, Monmouth Park will host the biggest race of our fall meet – the Grade II, $300,000 Monmouth Cup – which is scheduled to feature possible Breeders’ Cup Classic contender #1 Musket Man, 2010 Kentucky Derby runner-up #3 Ice Box, and this year’s Iselin winner #2 Duke of Mischief.   

The morning line favorite for the race – and my selection – is Musket Man.  (Maybe a single in the last leg of the 50-cent Pick 5 with a carryover of $44,661!!!)  It was published in the Monmouth Park barn notes this morning that Musket Man’s trainer Derek Ryan will only enter his horse in November’s Breeders’ Cup Classic if he wins Saturday.  I had originally planned on rooting for Musket Man because he’s my brother’s favorite horse.  Now I hope he wins even more, because I think he can be competitive in that race at Churchill!

While a quick look at Musket Man’s past performances makes it look like the 4-year-old doesn’t win very often, a closer look shows he’s never been off the board in 13 races – the majority of those Grade I or Grade II races.  If you throw out his two third-place finishes in the slop, Musket Man is 6-2-3 in 11 fast track races.  That’s a very respectable batting average of .545. 

Off his last couple races, Musket Man is clearly the horse to beat.  Two back he lost by 1 ½ lengths to Quality Road in the Met Mile.  A mile is Quality Road’s wheelhouse and might be a little short for Musket Man – second there is a “quality” effort (no pun intended).  Last out in the Whitney, Musket Man was stretching out to two turns for the first time in over a year and was coming off a two-month layoff.  He was too close to the pace that day, but only finished 1 ¾ lengths behind Blame and Quality Road.  No shame their either.  He’s already proven at 1 ¼ miles at Churchill (third in last year’s Kentucky Derby) and would only need some racing luck, I think, to be a major BC Classic factor. 

He has to win Saturday’s Monmouth Cup first.

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Keeneland’s Saturday card is surely a doozey.  Six graded races including three Grade I’s a Grade II, a Grade III, and…oh, a Grade I Arabian race.  Since Sand Witchh and his perfect 9-for-9 record look tough in the Arabian race (yeah, like I know what I’m talking about), let’s focus more on the graded Thoroughbred events…

Race 6 – The Grade III Woodford appears to have plenty of early speed.  Likely contenders who appear to employ a come-from-behind running style include #4 California Flag (who was able to rate last time, but can he do it again?), #6 Chamberlain Bridge, #7 Awakino Cat, and #9 Silver Timber.  To me, the winner – and maybe exacta – comes from this quartet.   

Race 7 – The 50-cent Pick 4 begins here and #6 Informed Decision looks like a standout.  She has 10 wins in 11 career starts on synthetics and won last out at Presque Isle with a dynamic stretch run.  She’s clearly the one to beat and all others must pull an upset to get their picture taken.

Race 8 – Still no big prices for me in Leg 2 of the Pick 4.  #4 Dynaslew is a nice horse, but it’s clearly #7 Proviso and #8 Wasted Tears to the house for me.  (I don’t know why, but I’ve started using the phrase “to the house” a lot lately.)

Race 9 – In terms of the Pick 4, the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity look a lot like an ALL button race.  I mean, this is the definition of a wide-open event.  I don’t even think I could pick one is you forced me to.  A-L-L.

Race 10 – The final leg of the Pick 4 is the Grade I Shadwell Turf Mile.  The top two choices on the morning line look tough to me.  #3 Courageous Cat hasn’t run in a long time, but is proven at the distance and is clearly a very talented animal.  #4 Gio Ponti needs no introduction as he is the reigning turf champion.  He does, however, cut back from a mile and a quarter to a flat mile.  I think it’s between these two for win honors.  #1 Get Stormy is a very good horse who’ve I’ve liked in all of his races this year, but I just don’t think he’s the caliber of the top two.  #5 Society’s Chairman might be a sneaky play underneath.  He’s most likely not good enough to win, but relishes two turns and has won twice at Keeneland in the past.

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A quick non-racing word about Roy Halladay if I may.  I only caught the last five innings of his no-hitter last night, but (as someone who used to pitch) I have to say that was the most dominant pitching performance I have ever seen.  How five fingers can make a ball move that much I will never know.  He didn’t even bother wasting a pitch.  Strike one, strike two, strike three, see ya later.  Complete mastery, and a treat to watch!  Anyone who thinks Roy Halladay is not the best pitcher is the Major Leagues needs their head examined.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Navin Mangalee is one of the more underrated jockeys in the local colony.  He does everything well and is capable on all types of horses.  With the end of the Elite meeting, many of the leading riders are following stakes mounts to out-of-town engagements and that’s allowing greater opportunities for others.  On Saturday, Mangalee won at 3-1 and 9-1.  On Sunday, he scored at 9-1 and finished second at 32-1.

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Jockey Francisco Maysonett continues to produce results at big, overlayed prices.  His two victories Sunday, at 6-1 and 18-1, were for main-man trainer Tim Kelly.  Maysonett’s 4^th race ride on Raise The Code truly was a thing of beauty and worthy of a look on head-on replay.  The gelding broke from the rail and Maysonett allowed the inside posts to clear him, angled well outside to the better footing, but then executed a brilliant move on the turn when he cut back towards the inside and sliced through a tight hole between horses rather than going extremely wide into the stretch. Raise The Code probably would have won no matter where Maysonett orchestrated his run, but you seldom know for sure and you never know before they hit the wire.

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Sometimes it feels like I have schizophrenia.  The morning line is supposed to reflect what prices horses will be rather than what odds I think they should be.  Thus the morning line part of my job requires me to close off my personal opinions and think like the massed betting public.  But then the selection part of my work demands that I allow my personal opinions and imagination to run wild.  The two thought processes are entirely different, so I try to do each function as far apart in time from the other as possible (I do the morning line first).  Still, no matter how hard I try, some of my opinions always will drift into the line and some of my line always will drift into my opinions.  It’s just a fact of imperfect life.

I feel the same way about some things in modern handicapping.  Given the national horse shortage and the betting public’s need for full fields, the racing industry would be well-served by the available stock running as often as possible.  I care passionately about horse racing and know full well how the trend of giving animals more rest between starts has impacted the business.  However, as a handicapper, I also believe that one of the game’s great angles is expecting a horse to improve with more time between contests subsequent to a dullish effort off a relatively quick turnaround.  I frequently pick and talk about horses who now are getting more time between starts even as I know in my heart that racing as a whole would benefit if the same animals competed more frequently.  It’s a metaphor for a crazy world and the complexity of racing issues.

Trip Notes 

October 2 

Race 1 – A Little At A Time met a tough field for the level, but finished decently and pulled up strongly.  A thin group of New Jersey-breds, preferably around two turns, could be what the improving filly needs.

Race 2 – Tappinintovictory was hung impossibly wide when stepping up off the claim and with blinkers on.  He suffered both ground loss and bias hindrance trying to attack two dropdown pace horses and could be a dominant presence with a slight reduction in selling price.

Race 4 – No Mo Magic broke well, rated, then moved prematurely to challenge a speedy stretch-out before weakening late.  It was a much-improved effort and it could be a prelude to a winning drop.

If any of you have ever had any interaction with Sophia either directly or indirectly, you know that she is one of the nicest, most considerate people you could ever meet.  As someone who gets (I originally had typed ‘has’ but on second thought, ‘gets’ is the correct word) to work with Sophia five days a week, I can also add that she is probably the hardest working person I’ve ever known.

That work ethic will I’m sure come in handy as Sophia trains for her quarter-mile-around-the-world adventure.  She’s already a marathon runner and skilled horsewoman, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say she’s never ridden in Asia before.  (And has never ridden for a week straight.)

As if riding for 630 miles on random Mongolian horses, in a country most have never heard of, far away from friends and family wasn’t enough, Sophia also is writing a blog, posting videos and (of course) training.  Oh, and she has to raise close to $15,000 for entry fees, travel expenses, etc. 

I’ve worked with Sophia for five years and consider her one of my best friends.  While I’m obviously a little scared for her safety, I’m really proud of her and impressed with her guts to tackle a challenge like this.  I like to consider myself a pretty tough guy, but there is no way in the world I would ever take on something like this!

If there is anyone out there would be interested in donating to Sophia’s Mongol Derby fund, please leave a comment at the end of this blog and we can figure out how to make that happen.  As Sophia has said, every little bit helps.  For those of you who don’t know who Sophia is, trust me, your money would be going to a very good cause.

To read Sophia’s extremely well written blog (said 100% objectively by someone who likes to think he is pretty good at blogging), you can go to http://mongolderby11.theadventurists.com/index.php?mode=teamwebsites&name=spirit.

And of course, if you’re local and see Sophia around the track, be sure to wish her luck!!

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Vosburgh winner Girolamo is a middle distance horse with a cruising speed high enough to make him a Grade I sprinter on a big, roomy track like Belmont.  Going to tighter Churchill for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, he’ll likely need an outer-more post than he drew on Saturday to achieve tenable early position.  Still, Girolamo is a major talent, and if stablemate Regal Ransom falters in the Kelso, the former could be re-directed to the BC Dirt Mile, which is where he truly fits around Churchill’s single turn.

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The especially soft ground made all Saturday turf races at Belmont dubious for BC clues if taken literally, but super-game, prematurely-moving, wide-grinding Flower Bowl runner-up Changing Skies handles any grass condition (and the grass is likely to be “off” to some degree in Kentucky in November).  She’s tactical, versatile and capable of acceleration when given even the hint of pace.  Changing Skies is made to order for three turns on the deepish Churchill lawn.

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Saw nothing in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational to scare even a third-string Euro.

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I’m a little low on sleep, but not to worry.  The non-winning jockeys in the ironically-named Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational did enough slumbering to catch up on a lifetime of insomnia.  Haynesfield was allowed to lope along unpressured with no one else showing even the slightest urgency until the race virtually was over.  While the winner ran well regardless of the race-shape, Blame, a true stayer, still showed an alarming lack of acceleration while stretching out to a distance that should have helped his burst.  Even in down years, BC Classic winners must fire some degree of brilliance.  Fly Down ran respectably, but must learn to change leads to play competitively with his elders.

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It was only an off-the-turf maiden race, but Belmont’s Race 5 on Saturday produced the best distance-meant 2-year-old I’ve seen this year.  To Honor And Serve did have a perfect trip, but his pace figure, finishing split, and final figure blended together to spell “excellence.”  A lanky long-strider, he showed significant physical development from his September 4 sprint debut at Saratoga.  In the latter race, To Honor And Serve was rushed off his feet early breaking from the rail and showed more speed than a horse with his pedigree and size has a right to have.  Folks will knock him for the poor subsequent performance of the horse who beat him that day, but negative key races are over-simplistically overrated.  To Honor And Serve’s connections tend to be patient and maybe the Remsen is the actual goal, but if he runs at Churchill, his biggest problem might be working out a trip going two turns.

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I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again.  Maybe she is bored by pedestrian competition, but I just don’t like the way Zenyatta now has to be whipped and briskly urged to do the same things she did last year almost entirely on her own.  Regardless of the reason for this, when athletes get in the habit of playing on the edge, they often find it difficult to reach the next level of proficiency when tested by truly top-class rivals.

The first memory I have of Rachel Alexandra was her race in the 2009 Fair Grounds Oaks.  It came during a timeout of a ping-pong match between me and Meadowlands track announcer Sam McKee, and all I remember is jockey Calvin Borel celebrating about a sixteenth of a mile before the finish.  (I also remember kicking Sam’s butt in ping-pong that day.  Actually I don’t remember that, I’m just playing the odds and assuming I’m right!)  I believe, “Wow!” was the word I used to describe Rachel’s performance.

In the months to come, Rachel would win the Kentucky Oaks by 20 lengths, get a new trainer, win the Preakness, win the Mother Goose (by almost 20 lengths), win the Haskell, and so on and so forth.  She was deservedly named 2009 Horse of the Year.  This year, Rachel came back strong – just not 2009 strong.  She was never worse than second in five starts (including a Grade II win), but definitely had lost a little something from her unprecedented 3-year-old season.

I don’t know if Rachel Alexandra is the best horse I’ve ever seen.  (Remember, I’m only 25, and been following racing for less than 10 years so the likes of Seattle Slew, Forego, etc. are well before me!).  I do know that I will talk about Rachel in the same breath as Curlin, Ghostzapper, and, yes, even Zenyatta.  And I also know that what she did as a 3-year-old filly (beating boys on three occasions – once on two weeks rest and once against older boys) was without a doubt the most impressive 12-month show I’ve ever seen a horse put on.

On a semi-related note, I cannot wait for those Rachel Alexandra-Curlin babies!!

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On to Saturday’s surplus of stakes from across the country.  Because there’s only 24 hours in a day – and I don’t feel like writing a novel – I’ll limit today’s analysis to Belmont and Oak Tree.  (There are also graded races on Saturday from Parx Racing, Hawthorne and Hoosier).

Belmont 

Race 6 – Grade I Vosburgh – Whoever wins this race is going to be a first-time Grade I winner as the field of nine has combined to have zero GI success.  #2 Girolamo is second race off a lengthy layoff and should have gotten a lot out of the GI Forego last out – an impossible comeback race off that kind of layoff.  #6 Snapshot has never won a stakes race, but was second in the GII True North two back and his two best races (in terms of Beyer Speed Figures) have come at Belmont.  #7 Wall Street Wonder needed his last and should be in a great tactical spot assuming he doesn’t duel himself into the ground.  #9 Wildcat Brief should be rallying late and will love his far outside draw.  (He does not like to be inside.)

Race 7 – Grade I Flower Bowl – I’ll handicap this race on Thursday expecting soggy turf and firm-loving animals to struggle.  (That might be a mistake; check out Jim Cantore on the Weather Channel for more info.)  #2 Red Desire has never raced on a sub-firm turf course.  She might like it, she might not.  She’ll be a use in the Pick 4 (just in case), but she’s no lock.  #3 Changing Skies has done her best running on off turf both in the U.S. and Europe and already has a win on a yielding Belmont lawn.  #7 Shared Account has plenty of yielding/soft turf experience and finished no worse than third in all five of those races.  She’s a must use.  #8 Keertana has also run well on wet grass before and was dominant in victory last out. 

Race 8 – Grade I Beldame – I wouldn’t be completely stunned if #3 Queen Martha raced back to her second-behind-Rachel-Alexandra form, but this looks like #1 Life at Ten vs. #4 Unrivaled Belle.  The former beat the latter at Belmont in June, but Unrivaled Belle comes into this race rested while Life at Ten was dueled into submission by Rachel five weeks ago.  A deeper inspection of this race is needed to make a definitive selection.  (It is only Thursday after all!)

Race 9 – Grade I Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational – Might be the same conditions on Saturday as last’s year Turf Classic which saw #11 Interpatation win at 43.75-1.  It’s tough to see him winning again this year, but isn’t that why he was 43.75-1 last year?  #2 Never on Sunday has a Group I win in Europe on soft ground on his resume and – despite two races this spring at Gulfstream – can fit my “bet the Euros in GI turf races” strategy.  Trainer Bill Mott says the filly #4 Treat Gently prefers longer races.  I’m going to take his word for it – I think he earned it.  She has fine good/soft European form to her credit.  #6 Bearpath is just fine over the footing and at the distance.  #10 Winchester prefers give in the ground, but only has one win at the distance from eight tries.

Race 10 – Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup – If he fires his B+ or higher shot, #2 Blame will win.  (Remember, the Breeders’ Cup Classic is right around the corner and you would hate to do too much, too soon.)  #1 Fly Down won the GII Dwyer and was second in the GI Belmont over this surface.  #6 Haynesfield owns four wins at the track, but has never beaten this type of competition.  #8 Rail Trip is a huge question mark.  Could win, could be fourth. 

Oak Tree 

Race 6 – Grade I Norfolk – #1 J P’s Gusto is obviously the horse to beat, but #3 Boxuer des Rues brings back memories.  I was handicapping the 2008 Breeders’ Futurity from Keeneland and the owner/trainer/jockey combo of J. Paul Reddam, Doug O’Neill and Rafael Bejarano sent out a 2-year-old European import named Square Eddie.  The son of Smart Strike ran off the screen.  A quick look at Boxuer des Rues and a lot looks the same as that day back in 2008.  I’m not saying he’s going to win, I’m just saying it brings back memories.  (And saying he might win!)

Race 7 – Grade I Lady’s Secret – #5 Zenyatta is running.  That’s all the analysis you need.

Race 8 – Grade I Yellow Ribbon – #1 Lilly Fa Pootz has had success over the Hollywood turf before and was second to a good one two back.  #3 Gypsy’s Warning seemingly was sent of a firm-turf-finding mission and ends up here.  Was very impressive when winning at Monmouth earlier this year.  #8 Turning Top is undefeated at Hollywood and one-for-one at the distance.  That qualifies her as a contender.  #9 Hibaayeb apparently needs firm turf and fits the previously mentioned “bet the Euros” strategy.

Race 9 – Grade I Goodwood – #1 Informed beat Rail Trip over this surface last year.  #2 Crown of Thorns is too good to ignore – even stretching out in distance.  #5 Twirling Candy has never lost – that’s pretty impressive.  #6 Awesome Gem won the Hollywood Gold Cup this year at…um…Hollywood.  #7 Richard’s Kid won the Pacific Classic…again.  Tough to settle on one in here.

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Best of luck this weekend!  Be sure to post a comment bragging about your big wins – or blaming me for your big losses.  I’m cool either way!

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Saturday is the biggest weekend of the racing year so far in terms of overall quality.  A multitude of horses on both coasts are getting their final starts before the Breeders’ Cup and there is much to be learned and – possibly – to gain.

Belmont 

Race 7 – Grade I Flower Bowl – Japanese shipper #2 Red Desire is the one to beat on overall form, but the extremely soft ground she likely will encounter for the first time in her life could cause culture shock.  This race is wide open, but #7 Shared Account will handle the ground and could have a tactical edge in a field lacking pace.  Never having competed beyond nine furlongs, however, she’ll likely need the wire to last over improving #8 Keertana.

Race 8 – Grade I Beldame – What #3 Queen Martha does early could be the key here.  If she goes with #1 Life At Ten, well-rested #4 Unrivaled Belle could be the main beneficiary.  The latter loves Belmont and looks to be cycling back to a top effort.  Given her possibly advantageous style in a pacey contest, it’s hard to toss #6 Persistently, but her Personal Ensign upset could have been a function of distance, pace, weight and Saratoga.

Race 9 – Grade I Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational – I’m tossing #5 Al Khali and #9 Paddy O’Prado on the basis of ground and distance.  #7 Telling gets the route but prefers firm going.  #10 Winchester handles both, but is no standout – especially when there’s no pace.  Improving #6 Bearpath is the horse to beat – especially if Borel reverts to his ground-saving norm.  #2 Never on Sunday has defeated Goldikova, Twice Over and Winchester during his career and took his only Grade I on very soft turf at Longchamp.  He’s the kind of solid, Euro second-rater who’s dominated North American competition on grass this year.

Race 10 – Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup - #2 Blame already has won Grade I’s and legitimately has the BC Classic in his sights.  It’s hard to believe he’s wound as tight as he’ll be in November.  Conversely, #8 Rail Trip likely is because that’s what his new trainer does with new horses off the bench.  However, Rail Trip probably isn’t a top-notcher going 1 ¼ miles against genuine competition, but #1 Fly Down probably is.  The latter was much the best in the Travers due to ground-loss and racing against a severe inside bias.  He gets weight off in his debut against older and is in the hands of a master developer of late-season 3-year-olds. 

Oak Tree 

Race 6 – Grade I Norfolk – It’s hard to regard #1 J.P.’s Gusto as a true BC Juvenile threat, but he could have his last dominant hurrah here on the basis of pace and experience.  #5 Acaffella and #7 Jaycito are the obvious upset candidates and the preference is for the former due to clarity of style.

Race 7 – Grade I Lady’s Secret – Still have the nagging feeling that #2 Zenyatta hasn’t been quite as good in 2010 as she was last season.  #4 Satans Quick Chick has exploded with big-time ferocity whenever given a real pace scenario to attack and the ship and aggressive spot by underrated connections signal true intent.  Would not be surprised if she tests the champ at an overlayed price of 15-1 or more.

Race 8 – Grade I Yellow Ribbon – Well-connected shipper #9 Hibaayeb might love firm going, but it’s hard to hang your hat on her off recent poor performances.  #6 Princess Haya has been rounding to form slowly and will appreciate the added distance more than much of her competition.  I’m using her everywhere in every wager I’m employing.  #3 Gypsy’s Warning has been brought along patiently by experts – note the small, incremental increases in distance with every start this season – and has been facing tougher than what she meets here.  Expect her to have much better tactical position off the jockey change.

Parx 

Race 10 – Grade II Fitx Dixon Cotillion – The tremendous #1 Blind Luck has many, many racing and travel miles on her frame and I never have been a big fan of the extreme cut-back she, along with #5 Havre De Grace, is facing.  #2 Awesome Maria was better than Devil May Care at age two (and that one has at least as much raw talent as the two favorites here) and has plenty of room to improve second off a long layoff. 

However, next Saturday is shaping up to be a big one:  At Belmont Park, five Grade I races will feature dozens of horses pointing towards early November’s Breeders’ Cup; four Grade I’s at Oak Tree at Hollywood Park will showcase the “Best of the West”  (That would include Zenyatta, by the way.); Blind Luck, one of the leading contenders for Horse of the Year, is expected to return to action in the Grade II Cotillion at Parx Racing; Hawthorne hosts a pair of graded stakes, including their Grade II Gold Cup; and Haskell winner Lookin at Lucky is likely to headline the Indiana Derby at Hoosier Park.  Now that’s a serious afternoon/evening of racing.

In the upcoming Thursday edition of the MP Blog, we’ll be taking a stroll around the country and hopefully picking some winners.  There’s a lot to choose from, but with top-level competition in nearly every race, there are sure to be some big prices along the way.

As a horseplayer, days like next Saturday are days to dream about.  Over the next six days, I’ll be doing a lot of dreaming.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Talking about things you don’t like is about as easy as betting on a loser in a 12-horse field.  Being human, the challenge is to be positive.  Well, here goes…

Things I Like 

- Deeper, damper fall turf courses.  It gets real fun at Belmont and Woodbine when the ground turns from summer highway to autumn marsh.  The livest horses actually like turf!

- Quirky tracks with uniqueness and personality – Kentucky Downs’ curves and undulations, Belmont’s three-quarters of a first turn going 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf, and three tight turns in routes at Charles Town, Fairplex and Timonium.  Anything requiring a player to think more in today’s age of slam-bang simulcasting gives an edge to those willing to pause and ponder.  (I just wish there were many more races actually run under the above conditions!)

- Tracks that put quality stakes and allowance fields with limited size but without an apparent odds-on favorite in Pick 4, Pick 5 and Pick 6 sequences – even on “guaranteed” days.  It gives the vast swath of simulcast players a fairer chance by incorporating better-known horses while also placing an overall premium on betting strategy over guesswork since the usual alternative races often are cheap claimers or unexposed maidens.  Short-term handle might suffer a bit, but long term customer development and cultivation flourishes.

- Skilled trainers who “only” win about 15% of their races because they are willing to let horses round into form with building-block races.  So many of the 25% conditioners only run every 5, 6, 7 or even 8 weeks, but their horses still don’t seem to last any longer than anybody else’s.  What’s harder on horses?  Racing every two or three weeks while doing little in-between starts or drilling and galloping like crazy to get ready for a “peak” performance every five-to-eight weeks?  I’m not really sure, but I do know that when the former was the rule rather than the exception, horses were more durable.  Of course, other factors are involved, but it is hay, oats and water for thought.

- Playing Maryland and Virginia racing.  Yes, the purses are moderate, but I think that actually feeds some of the positives.  Small outfits, modest homebreds and old-school horsemen seem to have better chances there than in other venues.  Handicapping can get a bit retro, too, and that’s not a bad thing either.  Too often the modern game on more-lucrative circuits distances itself from condition book understanding, real and long-term form cycles, and in-depth trainer patterns.  Maryland and Virginia take you back in time and also help you hone skills that still are necessary though frequently neglected.

- Reading stuff about toney horse sales in which high-priced purchases of the past are trumpeted triumphantly without mention of their often hugely unsuccessful racing careers.  It’s amusing – unless, of course, you bought one.

- The “Question And Answer” with trainer Richard Mandella conducted by Jay Privman in Saturday’s Daily Racing Form Weekend section.  Mandella is intelligent, thoughtful and visionary in attempting to deal with racing issues in his home state of California.  I liked it, but would have loved it if Mandella actually had mentioned horseplayers and wagering as factors that need to be addressed in the whole dirt versus synthetic debate.  The failure to take into account the interest of bettors – which should be the paramount interest of everybody, everywhere in the horse racing industry – is the primary cause of the current synthetic mess in the first place.  (And also the primary cause of so many other of racing’s other problems!)

- But I did love Ryan Goldberg’s feature article “Mocking The System” in the same DRF Weekend section on September 25.  Goldberg’s coldly efficient prose smoothly slices to the core of the bad-faith, all-about-me, modern-day appeals philosophy and then scrapes it cleaner than a writ served by an ethics professor wearing surgical gloves.  Goldberg is refreshingly knowledgeable about racing and cares deeply for it.  Still, he shows restraint beyond his sparse years by keeping his passion gurgling softly beneath the surface even as he doles out its energy in targeted thrusts at important issues.  Already possessing a top-notch resume as an investigative journalist, Goldberg is a much-needed, fresh voice (and soon to be force) in the industry.

Trip Notes 

September 19 

Race 2 – Callipygian Dream and Vallizzie, uncoupled stablemates, both showed improved stamina on the drop.  They fit the profile of horses who should continue to progress as the competition in the combination conditioned claiming ranks thins.  The latter pulled up very strongly.

Race 3 – Paper Back Saint had behavioral issues pre-race and traffic issues during the running.  He made some moves, however, before flattening out suddenly and could be a candidate for first-time lasix.

Race 4 – Silver Smoke was competitive in a needed race while facing a tough field for the level.

Race 7 – Lucky Lewis delivered a subtle but decent middle move in a loaded, juvenile maiden route while making only his second career start and coming off a 43-day respite.  He can move way forward vs. a weaker group.

Race 10 – Nicksappealinglady moved into the fastest part of the pace while on the dullest part of the track in her needed last.  She can improve big-time in a slightly softer spot.

September 25 

Race 6 – Firster Madame Defarge ran deceptively well behind three better-bred and/or much more expensive rivals.  She should be live dropping to maiden claimers.

Race 8 – Triple Tap broke sharply off the improved blow-out, stayed close early, and had traffic issues when weakening late.  Will be suited by lesser and/or longer.

*          *          *          *

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago after the Arlington Million that my handicapping strategy in graded turf stakes for the rest of the year was going to be “bet the Euros.”  Once Gio Ponti went down in the Million at the hands of an import from across the pond, it became clear to me that in terms of the American turf runners – especially in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Division – we got nothing.  Case in point was Sunday’s Northern Dancer.  Marsh Side and Expansion – the top-two Americans on the morning line – ran second to last and last respectively, and Euro-invader Redwood won.  I’m sure they’re all not reading the Monmouth Park Blog, but Redwood’s 9-5 odds indicate many handicappers are starting to catch on to the “bet the Euros” strategy. 

*          *          *          *

The biggest race of Monmouth Park’s fall meeting is quickly approaching on Saturday, October 9.  While we’re a little too far away to know for sure, the Monmouth Cup could draw Breeders’ Cup-bound, and Skirka family favorite, Musket Man.  With apparently only the Monmouth Cup or Jockey Club Gold Cup as options, let’s hope Musket Man stays here and puts on a show in front of the home fans (he’s stabled at Monmouth Park after all) en route to being a major force in either the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile or Breeders’ Cup Classic.

*          *          *          *

It was really nice to see Monmouth Park legend Presious Passion back on the turf yesterday.  Unfortunately, it came at Delaware Park, and unfortunately he only came in fourth.  I actually didn’t think he ran that bad, however, and he should obviously improve off that race.  Hopefully we’ll see the big guy back in the winner’s circle in the not-so-far-off future.

*          *          *          *

Ok, I can’t take it anymore.  It has absolutely nothing to do with horse racing, but I have to say something.  Can we PLEASE stop mentioning Lindsey Lohan on every newscast!!  Why do they (the news) do it?  Well, they do it to make money.  Unfortunately, in the world we live in, more people will watch the news if features arrested “celebrities” than if it’s about real news.  More people watching means more money.  Therefore, news organizations will cater to the masses instead of doing their job – which is of course to inform the public of what is going on.  While the news shouldn’t be showing this garbage, it’s also on us as the public to stop caring about people like Lindsey Lohan.  Who cares?  If everyone refused to watch this garbage, then news organizations would stop putting it on every newscast.   

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

In the last 13 racing days, low-profile trainer Paul Kopaj has six wins and two second-place finishes.  The victories have been at odds of 3-1, 3-1, 5-1, 5-1, 8-1, and 10-1.  The runner-ups have gone off at 8-1 and 9-1.  Chances are that even a high volume conditioner’s hot streak will have a short shelf life and Kopaj’s string is so relatively small it’s doubtful he’ll be able to keep things sizzling much longer as his charges move to tougher levels.  However, in recent years on this circuit, Kopaj’s overall performance has withstood the test of time.  He can train any kind of horse and clearly understands how to manage and spot his stock.  File away whatever can be gleaned from Kopaj’s conditioning style because in coming years those who pay him close attention will continue to reap dividends.  Let’s take a look at some of his exploits in 2009 and 2010.

2009 

July 3 – Emily Allstar scored at 46-1 off a 234-day layoff.  Her published worktab was spotty and possibly missing some drills, but a May 24 gate work was in 1:00 handily and the final blow-out of :48 2/5 breezing on June 26 was sharp as well.

August 12 – Mike’s Bet broke his maiden at 7-2.  With 20 days between starts, he was coming off a longer respite than at any previous time in an extensive form cycle.  Mike’s Bet also was switching from a seven-pound apprentice to a journeyman. 

August 20 – Firster Slovan took a state-bred maiden $20,000 claimer at 12-1.  Again, the work cycle appeared to be missing some drills, but the seven that were recorded were very decent for the classification level and the final blow-out on August 15 was a solid :49 breezing. 

October 2 – Kelly’s Pic broke her maiden at 4-1 in her fourth-career start.  She was improving steadily, dropping to the lowest level of her career, and cutting back from a two-turn route to a one-turn sprint.

2010 

June 4 – Mike’s Bet triumphed at 8-1 off a 35-day break – again coming off the longest respite between starts he had been given in the current form cycle.  His lone workout showing was a sharp :36 4/5 breezing blow-out on May 30.

July 16 – Firster Uncle Phil was placed first via disqualification at 6-1 in a state-bred maiden $10,000 claimer.  He only had two works showing – :36 3/5 breezing from the gate on June 3 and :49 breezing on July 2.  There was no blow-out on top of the race, but the two visible drills were quite live for the class level.

July 17 – Pasta Lover broke his maiden at 10-1 while returning in only 12 days, fourth race off a layoff, and stretching out.

August 21 – Firster Vision of Noah scored at 5-1 in a state-bred maiden special.  He showed a string of 10 drills going back to May 3 with the best four being the four from the gate – including a :36 4/5 breezing from the gate blow-out on August 15.

August 27 – Third-timer Oakridge Red dropped from state-bred maiden specials to a state-bred maiden $10,000 claimer, put blinkers on, and finished second at 9-1.  He blew-out in :37 breezing from the gate on August 22.

September 4 – Firster Jean’s Hope placed at 8-1 in a state-bred maiden $10,000 claimer.  She showed six fairly steady works, but they were a bit slower than usual for the barn and there was no blow-out close to the race.

September 11 – Emily Allstar won at 8-1 third race off a layoff and cutting back (see Kelly’s Pic) from a two-turn turf route to a one-turn dirt sprint.

September 11 – Uncle Phil scored at 10-1 third-time out while dropping in class with more rest than he had for his second start and switching back to win jockey Omar Figueroa.  (Figueroa had ridden another, better-finishing starter for Kopaj in the same race in which Uncle Phil had competed.)

September 18 – Emily Allstar repeated stretching out fourth race off the bench and returning in only seven days.  (Note the relatively quick turnaround for Pasta Lover’s stretch-out victory.) 

September 19 – Bible Belt won at 3-1 first start off the claim.  She blew-out in :37 breezing on September 11.

September 19 – Dbl Nvisabl George, who repeatedly had middle-moved nicely from tactical position before flattening out late going one mile on turf at Monmouth, shipped to Belmont, cut-back to six furlongs on grass (a distance not available in New Jersey) and finished second at 10-1.

More than most horseplayers, I would say, I am a fan of – and get attached to – individual horses.  When I look at the past performances for a race, I don’t just see 10 random horses with some small numbers.  A lot of times – especially in bigger stakes races – I’ll see a horse that I’ve always really liked, or a horse that I bet on last time, or a horse who I think is really underrated.  And whatever it is that my heart likes about those given horses often times clouds my brain from being able to handicap properly.  Just because I like a horse, bet on him/her last time, or think he/she is really underrated obviously doesn’t mean he/she is suited to the conditions of the race I’m looking at on that given day. 

Especially when talking about some of my all-time favorite horses – Hotstufanthensome, Einstein, Any Given Saturday, etc. – no matter what my brain said, my heart said I would rather bet on the horse and lose than not bet and have him/her win.  A good example of this is when Any Given Saturday ran in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  I had liked AGS that year ever since he lost by a nose to Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby.  I liked him when he lost the Kentucky Derby, I liked him when he won the Haskell, and I bet on him in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  He ran terribly that day – it was later noted that he was sick.  If my brain were in charge, I probably wouldn’t have liked Any Given Saturday.  But sometimes the heart is too powerful to be ignored.

Is this an example of absolutely pathetic handicapping?  It probably is, yes.  I would like to think all horseplayers have flaws, and my flaw is my heart is too much involved.  For whatever reason, I can never bet against a horse that’s one of my favorites.  Just like I would never root against my favorite sports teams.  Sometimes that loses me money.  Those times I just accept it and move on. 

I think it’s fair to say that most of us – or at least many of few – love horse racing because it is not easy.  It’s not sitting down at a machine, pulling a handle, having some fruit spin around and having coins fall into a bucket.  Handicapping rewards you for your hard work.  (As does one of my other passions – fishing.)  If you work/study/pay attention harder than the person sitting next to you, the odds are in the long run you will be better off. 

I guess the moral of this story is while handicapping horses is extremely hard, that’s why we love it.  And while we all have our flaws, the best we can do it try to limit them from popping up.      

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Horse racing handicapping information has undergone incredible development in the last 30 years.  Speed figures, performance figures, detailed trainer stats, key races, pedigree profiles, and trip notes are among the things that used to be the exclusive province of privileged insiders or professional horseplayers, but now are relatively easy, and inexpensive, for anybody to acquire. 

One school of thought holds that the technology-driven mainstreaming of information has hurt people who actually do their own background work and made things too easy for those who simply pay a fee and/or click a mouse.  Indeed, I’ll admit to uttering an oath or two when a key race that would have been completely hidden a decade ago is trumpeted in print by someone reciting from a computer screen or when a low-profile trainer skilled with stretch outs has his prowess flashing like a beacon at the bottom of a past performance line.  But you know what?  There can be such a thing as too much information.

Just look at the amount of data available in modern past performances and the written exposition that often accompanies them. It can be mind-numbingly overwhelming on the analytical senses and frequently conflicting in the directions it points.  Handicapping has become a game of picking out the needles in the haystack that matter most in a specific instance and then using them properly to pinpoint key factors.

Which figure pattern is better?

A) 55   60            64

B) 30   40             68

Trainer A wins 12% of the time overall and 17%, from a good-sized sample, stretching out.  Trainer B wins 24% overall and 20%, from a good-sized sample, stretching out.  Which set of stats are most significant?

Horse A was beaten at least 10 lengths by two next-out winners at the same level.  Horse B beat, by at least one length, two horses who subsequently finished second next out at the same level.  Which horse has more company class?

First-timer A is the second foal of a mare whose first foal finished second twice in two starts at age two.  First-timer B is out of a mare who produced four multiple winners, some of whom won as firsters, early in her breeding career, but nothing of any account in the last seven years.  All other things being equal, which firster do you prefer?

Sprinters A and B earned the same  raw figure last time.  Horse A’s short comment reads: “Steadied early, rallied wide.”  Horse B’s short comment reads: “Rallied inside, hung.”  Horse B’s running line and video replay indicate he was off slowly and moved mid-pack early before rallying into the stretch and fighting inside rivals before flattening out in deep stretch.  Horse A moves today to an inside post while Horse B has an outside draw.  Who might have more room to improve?

Ask yourself these and other questions.  Be careful how you answer them.  Your Pick 5 could depend on it!

Trip Notes 

September 18 

Race 1 – Easy Virtue endured a troubled start in her debut, but moved well late despite traffic and pulled up nicely looking for more to do.  She’s a work in progress and should improve steadily with continued experience.

Race 2 – Silent Appeal battled a much more seasoned rival in his debut for a barn that is seldom at its best first time out.  Subsequent six or seven furlong foundation works could signal a strong move forward.

            Mo’s Red Diamond, another firster, made a good move to mid-pack after a bumpy and slow start before fading.  His shrewd barn is excellent at classifying its stock in maiden claimers.

Race 12 – Cecilia’s Song has been involved in difficult pace scenarios in her two dirt efforts.  The cut-back here sharpened her off the two-turn turf foundation builder on September 5 and she should now be primed for a drop to state-bred maiden claimers.

For someone who works at a racetrack, there were no real surprises in the plot.  But the movie was presented in a nice way and even had the entire theater laughing on multiple occasions – which was a little unexpected.  Is Secretariat going to win an Academy Award?  Unlikely.  Is it the best horse racing movie ever made?  Probably not.  Would I have liked to see a little more about the horse?  Yes.  But, in the end, Secretariat was definitely worth a night in the theater. 

One thing that I really did miss in the movie was a mention of my favorite Secretariat fact of all time.  Apparently, after he passed away, an autopsy revealed that Big Red’s heart was nearly three times the size of an average horse.  For such a gutsy champion to have a huge heart (literally) I think is pretty cool.  While it would have been a neat addition to the movie, I guess I could see why Disney chose to exclude facts about enlarged organs discovered in post-mortem operations!

*          *          *          *

Maybe it was fate – or maybe, and more likely, a coincidence – but I saw Secretariat the day before my friend’s horse (who currently goes by the nickname Peewee) had his first-ever breeze.  

Only time will tell if Peewee will become a Triple Crown winner (somehow I think the odds are against him), but the reason I enjoy going back to see him, and one thing the Secretariat movie did portray, was the relationship between a horse’s connections and their prized animals. 

Everything in this world is relative.  Will Peewee be the next Secretariat?  I’m going to go out on a limb and say no.  But can he bring his connections (all one of them) the same kind of happiness?  Absolutely.     

While I’ve never owned a horse, I sort of experienced that kind of relationship with Hotstufanthensome.  (Sorry for those of you tired of seeing his name in the blog – it’s been a while.)  I obviously always rooted for him, and would shake with nerves in the minutes leading up to post time of his races.  Win or lose, I was always so proud of him and he always brought a smile to my face.

I was reminded of the good ‘ol days of Hotstuf last night in the theater watching Penny Chenery (Diane Lane) cheer on Secretariat.  And even more so this morning when my friend – who wasn’t atop Peewee on the track for the first time today – was shaking waiting for him to work.  I really enjoy seeing that relationship between my friend and her horse.  She loves him.  She’ll love him if he wins the Triple Crown.  She’ll love him if it turns out he’s not that fast.  For her sake, I really hope he turns out to be a good horse.  I assume it’s not the easiest thing in the world to own, train, walk, bathe, feed, and do everything else for a horse all by oneself.  I just hope at some point Peewee can pay her back for all that hard work.  For someone who has a very nice smile, that would be one great winner’s circle picture. 

*          *          *          *

On the way home from seeing Secretariat, I was poking around through my top six radio stations on my speed dial thingy when I came across 106.3 FM.  Except something didn’t sound right.  What usually would have been Usher or Jason DeRulo was a country song.  I had heard that Thunder 98.5 FM (an Ocean County only station) was moving to Monmouth County, but I had forgot what day.  As of Wednesday, we finally have a country music station to listen to instead of Lady Gaga, and Usher, and Eminem, and more Usher, and Justin Beaver (wait, it’s not Beaver?), and more Lady Gaga…Thank heavens. 

*          *          *          *

For those of you looking for “expert” handicapping selections, a certain Brian Skirka will be joining Mike Curci for Monmouth Park’s paddock show/handicapping seminar every Saturday morning between now and the end of the meet.  I would advise all of you to watch because you never know what you’ll see.  One week I could pick 12-straight winners (unlikely), the next I could pick zero winners (more likely), then the next week I could forget what to say and make a complete fool of myself (even more likely).  I guarantee one thing – it’ll be entertaining.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

The biggest changes in Monmouth racing with the end of the Elite Meet could come in the conditioned claiming and state-bred ranks.

Many of the best local horses eligible for conditioned claimers already have triumphed while there now is a bit less monetary incentive to ship a sharp entrant from another venue.  Consequently, animals who may have gained good fitness while overmatched in July and August will find themselves fitting much better with September and October fields.

In the state-bred ranks, optional races will allow a mixing of up-and-comers with veteran who already have won the allowance side of the condition.  This will make for more dynamic races that mix and match horses who never have competed with each other.  Players with a knowledge of the circuit from following the earlier season action should have an advantage.

*          *          *          *

With young horses, it’s all about room to improve.  Winter Memories, about as well-bred as a horse can be on both sides, won as a first-time starter going 1 1/16 miles on turf at Saratoga on September 3.  She wasn’t the fastest or the most dominant-looking of the meeting’s 2-year-olds this year, but she might just have the biggest future of any of them.

Winter Memories raced extremely greenly throughout, weaved her way over multiple parts of the course, showed push-button and explosive acceleration whenever necessary, displayed a long but classic turf daisy-cutting stride, switched leads twice more than ideal in the stretch, and gave the strong impression that she only way performing at a fraction of her physical ability.  Sometimes, the light bulb never comes on all the way.  However, given Winter Memories’ pedigree, chances are she’ll be shining brightly before very long.

*          *          *          *

There was a number of juvenile stakes run at Calder on August 28, but the best long-term prospect might have been maiden special graduate Ribo Bobo.  The distance-bred son of Preakness victor Louis Quatorze out of a mare sired by Wood Memorial winner Private Terms has good size and scope, but also a low-slung and very smooth racing action.

Ribo Bobo debuted at seven furlongs, broke his maiden 15 days later at six furlongs, and then, for some reason, returned only 14 days after that and cut back to an unsuitable 5 ½ furlongs.  A long one turn and intermediate two-turn distances should work for him and, hopefully, he gets some additional time off before his next try in a longer race.

*          *          *          *

No question, .75-1 favorite Devil May Care threw in a clunker when she finished a fading fourth in the Grade I Alabama, but the stuff I’m hearing that she didn’t “stay” the 1 ¼ mile distance makes little sense given her strong finish in the 1 1/8 mile Grade I Coaching Club.  The filly’s poor trip and position throughout the Alabama are what eventually forced her to throw in the towel rather than any limitations of stamina – at least relative to the rest of the 2010 crop of 3-year-old fillies.

*          *          *          *

Todd Pletcher-trained 2-year-old Uncle Mo now is all the rage following his big figure, 14 ¼-length Saratoga maiden win.  Sure, he’s good, but he beat a field full of fellow first-time starters while aided by a powerful double bias and a soft, uncontested pace scenario.  Let’s see him handle even a hint of adversity before anointing him the game’s next superstar.

I call him a “friend” now despite our many confrontations in the past.  When he first became a star, he was definitely my “foe.”  I never could handicap him correctly.  When I thought he’d win, he lost.  When I didn’t think he had a chance in the world, he won – usually in dramatic fashion.  However, over the years, I’ve grown to respect this speedster for his heart and talent.

It’s been awhile since his name has been mentioned around here, but it was a pleasant sight to see Presious Passion back at Monmouth Park.  He was pulling his exercise rider out of the saddle and really looked to be enjoying himself.  Hopefully we’ll get to see him on the track (or should I say turf) sometime soon.

*          *            *            *

It’s official.  There is now absolutely no reason to watch one second of the remainder of the New York Mets season.  With the announcement that Johan Santana has elected to undergo shoulder surgery, the final watchable piece of the New York Mets is done for the year. 

*          *            *            *

The NFL season began in earnest today, and a quick peak at the favorites to win the Superbowl (found in Sunday’s Daily Racing Form) popped a couple questions into my head:

Why does everyone like the Green Bay Packers this year?  They’re the co-7/1 favorite to win the Superbowl despite winning…um…nothing the last couple of years.  Don’t they have to prove themselves somewhat before being praised by Vegas (and many ESPN analysts) as the Super Bowl champs?

Sharing the 7/1 Superbowl favoritism with the Packers is the Indianapolis Colts.  Now, I need to admit that I do not like the Colts at all.  (In fact I had to delete a stronger-worded derogatory comment expressing my distaste for them.)  However, the Colts are proven in big games – even though they lose most of them.  They have won a Super Bowl in recent memory and played in the big game last year.  I hope they go 0-16 this year, but objectively, isn’t 7/1 a little high for them?  They’re almost a lock to be in the AFC Championship Game.  

The Jets are 12/1 to win the Super Bowl.  Ugh.  Based on how much they talk they should be 3/5. 

For the record, my Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the longest shot on the board to win the Super Bowl at 2000/1.  (But as of a few minutes ago are 1-0!!)

*          *            *            *

I received word this week that a family favorite is being pointed to the upcoming Grade II Monmouth Cup.  Check back next week for more details.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

On Saturday, the Monmouth feature was the Revidere Stakes.  (It was on turf and she never ran on grass in her entire career!).  Most people watching and wagering on the contest probably never had heard of Revidere.  Well, I did.  She was one of the gamest, toughest, and best 3-year-old fillies I ever saw.

A sophomore in 1976, her legacy has been overshadowed by that of another daughter of Reviewer named Ruffian, whose career and life were so tragically cut short a year earlier in 1975.  A late developer who was a product of the same Nasrullah/Princequillo cross as Secretariat, Revidere’s first stakes win was the Cotillion at Keystone – soon to be Philadelphia Park and now Parx Racing – on June 12.

Two weeks later, the lightly-raced, undefeated filly with limited foundation stretched out to 1 ½ miles and challenged 1975 2-year-old champ Optimistic Gal in the Coaching Club American Oaks.  Optimistic Gal went by Revidere in deep stretch, but the David Whitely trainee battled back with hidden reserves and got up at the wire.  The clocking was 2:28 2/5.  Imagine the absurdity of 3-year-old fillies today running within even two seconds of that time!  Optimistic Gal came back to win the Alabama by 16 lengths running the 1 ¼ miles in 2:01 3/5.

On July 5, a mere nine days after the Coaching Club, Revidere came to New Jersey for the Monmouth Oaks.  She was passed late by Javamine, a hugely-talented, dual-surface filly by English Derby winner Nijinsky II out of a mare by Kentucky Derby and Preakness victor Tim Tam. 

Despite giving nine pounds to Javamine, Revidere dug in and came again to prevail.  Javamine came back to be a troubled fourth on turf versus older fillies and mares in the Sheepshead Bay and then won a non-winners of two grass allowance at Saratoga by 11 lengths.

Revidere’s next start was the Gazelle on September 4.  She gave 12 pounds to the top-class Pacific Princess and looked hopelessly beaten past the eighth pole.  Somehow, Revidere switched into overdrive and actually scored going away.

On September 25, Revidere took on older for the first time in the Beldame.  Proud Delta, who was really good when she had things her own way, got loose and comfortable on the lead and couldn’t be caught on that day.  Still, Revidere beat West Coast division leader Bastonera II and Optimistic Gal.  And having to move early attempting to stay close to Proud Delta sharpened her up for the stretch out in the 1 ¼ mile Ruffian on October 9.  Revidere exploded to a 14-length romp in 2:01 flat.  Wallowing in her wake were Bastonera II, Optimistic Gal and Proud Delta.

Revidere’s final start of 1976 came against males in the 1 ½-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup.  On the lead, she battled tag-team pressure from multiple sprint and route graded quality winner El Pitirre and then Father Hogan, who’d been a close third in his previous start, the Marlboro Cup, behind Forego and Honest Pleasure.  Revidere put away the two challenges, but couldn’t handle marathon specialist and perfect-trip closer Great Contractor, who had been third in the Belmont that year and who would in 1977 beat Forego by many in the 1 ½-mile Brooklyn.

Revidere raced a couple times at four, but wasn’t the same.  In fact, she probably lost a step or two more than Rachel Alexandra did from 2009 to 2010.  At nine furlongs, a race between those two as 3-year-olds probably would go to Rachel, but for every half furlong beyond 1 1/8 miles, Revidere’s margin of victory would only get bigger and bigger.

*          *            *            *

Trip Notes 

September 11 

Race 1 – Kid London found his niche as a two-turn speed horse.  He held well on the worse part of the track behind three tough rivals for the level and might still be a decent price against a weaker field.

Race 5 – Dream Waltz had traffic and bias issues on the drop, but continued gamely and looks to have found his level.  An outside draw would help him sprinting, but don’t give up on his route potential, either.

Race 6 – Scavezzato sustained his sharp burst better than ever, but used it prematurely once again.  He can explode if he ever finds a turf maiden claimer with real pace.

*          *            *            *

Great non-call by the stewards in the 5^th race on September 11.  Winner Fayoum came out in very deep stretch and bumped runner-up Fivethirteen right before the two hit the wire, with the former a neck in front.  The incident clearly happened so late in the race that it had no effect on the outcome.  Stewards all over the country might be feeling some pressure after last week’s controversial, but correct, non-call in the Del Mar Derby.  Human nature all too often sways to the direction of the wind, but good judges, in any endeavor, stand firm on principle and consistency. 

Even though it seems like it just started, the Elite Summer Meet is over.  The 100-degree days are gone and 50-degree nights are here to stay.  It seems like opening night of Major League Baseball was just the other day, but tonight is actually the first game of the NFL regular season.  I guess now would be a good time to take a look back at my Elite Summer Meet (top ten list style):

10) As a journalism major, I’m much more confident in front of a computer screen than in front of a television monitor.  On two occasions during the Elite Meet, however, I was able to take a shot at our morning paddock show.  The results – I actually impressed myself, which is not easy to do.  Besides the fact that I picked a decent amount of winners, I wasn’t nervous, I didn’t say anything too stupid, and I didn’t embarrass myself.  I guess that’s mission accomplished.   

9) It didn’t have the greatest effect on the number I see when I step on the scale, but the BBQ & Craft Beer Festival has to make the list.  I mean, two days of pulled pork, ribs and…come on, it’s pulled pork.  I ate enough for an entire week and loved every second of it.  Can’t wait until next year.

8) In my five years at Monmouth Park, I’ve been lucky enough to see some very talented horses win the Haskell.  Among the most memorable are Any Given Saturday, Big Brown, and of course Rachel Alexandra.  But this year, I got to witness one of the best Haskell fields of all-time.  We had a Kentucky Derby winner, a Preakness winner, the runners-up from both of those races, and a star in the making.  The Haskell will make the top ten list every year, but this year’s event was particularly Elite.

7) In case you haven’t heard, Monmouth Park’s track announcer Larry Collmus received some national recognition this summer for some race call about a couple of wives with varying degrees of knowledge.  Not every track gets worldwide coverage like that.  (And it was worldwide as Larry was lucky enough to do an interview with a news station in New Zealand.)  The following days in the office were kind of hectic, but in the end it was worth it.  But our great track and great announcer deserve that kind of recognition.

6) One race before Lookin at Lucky dominated the Haskell field, a local hero strutted his stuff on the Monmouth grass in front of a national TV audience.  Get Serious – who won three graded stakes during the Elite Summer Meet – was passed in the stretch of the Grade III Oceanport by Violin Sacre.  He was passed, but he never gave up.  And as quickly as his rival passed him, Get Serious was back in front where it counted – at the wire.  What a gutsy win by a gutsy horse.

5) On July 24, Monmouth Park welcomed 2009 Haskell winner and reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra for an “Encore at the Shore.”  Her presence transformed what otherwise would have been a relatively quiet day into “Rachel Mania.”  There were signs, there were t-shirts, and there were thousands of Rachel Alexandra fans cheering on their heroine.  She didn’t dominate the Lady’s Secret field as most thought she would, but she got the job done.  It was a great day for all involved. 

4) Before the announcement of the plan for the new Monmouth Park summer meet, I had never used the word “Elite” in a sentence.  By the time opening day came around, I had used it several times.  Heading into that first Saturday, I wasn’t exactly sure what to expect.  Would the Elite Meet be any different than our previous normal meets?  Well, as it turned out, the answer was a resounding yes.  Not only did we have a full house, but handle was through the roof.  (It also helped that I won the opening day office pool for handle and attendance predictions!!)  Some old friends who never really cared for the track made an appearance, as did some new ones who combined to make the day extra memorable.  All in all, a great start to an Elite summer.

3) Prior to 2010, I had been to the Monmouth Park backside a total of (carry the one) two times.  (Well, ok, three if you count the time I had to track down Rick Dutrow for his autograph after the Haskell a couple years back.)  The time I spent in New York in the winter was really my first experience of life on the backside.  This year, with my move to the publicity office, I was able to head back to the barns more often for notes, etc.  As someone who didn’t grow up on a farm, being able to be back there with the trainers and horses is pretty cool.  Even cooler was being given the chance to actually help take care of one of my friend’s horses in the mornings (walk, graze, bathe – that kind of stuff).  That’s not the kind of things I expect to be able to do, so getting that chance was something special.  (I still can’t believe somebody trusted me with an animal that has about a 1 in 30,000 chance – based on foal numbers – of winning the Kentucky Derby next year!)     

2) My favorite racing personality is Matt Carothers.  It’s not even close.  He’s smart, he’s hilarious, and he hosts the best racing show on TV.  When I heard Matt was flying east for Rachel Alexandra Day, I immediately began thinking of a way to use his brilliance for our advantage.  The idea – a guest appearance on Shades Off with old friend Brad Thomas.  The resulting video was some of the funniest material I have ever heard.  (As evidenced by me laughing out loud in the background.)

1) For me, the best thing about the Elite Summer Meet wasn’t in the marketing brochure that lists the season’s events.  It wasn’t posted anywhere on our website.  It wasn’t written about in any publication.  The best part of my summer at Monmouth Park isn’t something that I can email, fax or even show someone.  It was the feeling I got when I walked into the Admin building every day.  The feeling I got from working with some of my best friends in the world.  The feeling I got when I sat back and thought, ‘hey, I’m working at the biggest meet in the country.’  I made a couple new friends this summer, and was reunited with some old ones.  There were high times and low times with both, but at the end of the day everything was perfect.  I woke up every one of those 49 Elite days looking forward to coming to work.  Each day I rolled out of bed smiling knowing that I got to spend my day at a historic meet, at a beautiful racetrack, with people that I absolutely love being around.  I couldn’t ask to be on a better team. 

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

September 3 and 4 featured a strong closers bias going two turns and two of the dullest dirt rails of the entire season.  The following horses were among those compromised:

September 3 

Race 1 – No Goal, who also had a tough trip between horses while coming off a layoff.

Race 3 – Timmy Funshine, who now has two races of two-turn conditioning.

Race 6 – No Fret, who has a sneaky-strong distance pedigree and might be new and improved as a router.

Race 7 – Saucy Sixer, who might be primed for a drop to maiden claimers.

Race 9 – Dalliance and Many Crows.  The latter is in dire need of an outside draw.

September 4 

Race 1 – Tomica’s Spirit, who has high speed, but wants to run as short as possible.

Race 2 – Chanterelle Belle, who improved significantly dropping and cutting back when second-time blinkers.

Race 4 – Belle Dorada, who seemingly prefers cooler weather and who now is in the best form of her life.

Race 7 – Jersey Pearl, who could step it up big-time if she ever catches a wet strip.

Race 9 – Rapid Redux, who moved way up in class first-time for ultra-live, low-profile trainer Kevin Fields.

            Smoke ‘N Review, who’s in fine fettle, but still needs a serious drop in class.

Race 11 – Chipshot, who also was victimized by a poorly-judged ride when tons the best in the Grade III Sapling.

Race 13 – Summiting, who was super-primed off a brief respite and tried his guts out under impossible circumstances.

Things that bother me… 

Jockeys appealing suspensions just for the sake of taking the time off when it best suits them.  It makes a mockery of the system and those who so abuse it should be required to donate 50% of all riding earnings during the appeals process to the Don MacBeth Memorial Jockey Fund for disabled jockeys.

Race results that are altered on appeal long after the contest is official parimutuelly.  Once the bettors – the folks who support everybody and everything in this game – get paid or debited, the debate should be over.  Any owner who gains purse money appealing a disqualification should be required to donate 50% to a legitimate horse retirement facility or foundation.

More than one disqualification at a given track on a given day.  You see it all too often.  One marginal take down boxes stewards into a corner and makes them feel compelled to disqualify another iffy offender in a misjudged desire for consistency.  The solution?  Take downs should only come in the most egregious, clear-cut cases and should be as frequent as six-figure payoffs – maybe even high six-figure ones.  Control on the track can be maintained through meaningful fines and strictly enforced suspensions for jockeys.  Innocent owners, trainers, and – most importantly – bettors should be spared yet another uncontrolled variable in an extremely difficult game. 

People knocking Rachel Alexandra.  Yeah, she’s lost a step or two.  So what?  If you did what she did last year, you wouldn’t even be able to get your head off the pillow.  Fillies and mares throughout racing history haven’t been the same after hard campaigns.  The reality is that Rachel still is pretty darn good.  In fact, she was tons the best horse in the Personal Ensign.  She absolutely wasted the talented and super-sharp Life At Ten after a pace fight and, despite competing at a 10-furlong distance that was a bit beyond her best even in the glory days, kept trying to the bitter end against a perfect-trip winner who was responding to at least 21 whip strokes from the 5/16ths pole to the wire.  As a handicapper, one must evaluate the 2010 Rachel with unvarnished realism.  But as a racetracker, one only can regard her with unadulterated awe.

Decision making on synthetics and takeout in California.  If those are the calls made by racing’s friends, then its enemies needn’t bother even showing up.

Mine That Bird wearing his new blinkers and moving into the early pace in the Woodward because his connections felt he needed to be closer to the leaders.  Actually, the main reason the gelding won the Kentucky Derby and placed in the Preakness was because he rallied from far back in races with fast fractions.  Mine That Bird is a decent horse, but he’s limited and entirely pace dependant.  Use him early, or squander his middle move prematurely, and he won’t finish.  Witness his pre-Derby performances against moderate competition.  If only horses could talk or people would pay attention to their history.

Only four horses running in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga, the first Grade I for 2-year-old males contested this season.  Pitiful, just pitiful.  Yes, the Grade III Sapling was run at Monmouth just two days earlier, but so what?  A large chunk of the commercial breeding industry in the United States is geared towards producing precocious horses ready to earn early for pinhooking middlemen and impatient, noveau-rich end users.  If anything, races like the Hopeful should have overflowing fields while the Triple Crown contests, which routinely are chock full of already over the hill and/or overmatched pretenders incapable or running classic distances, should contain smaller groups of legitimate candidates. 

In the last 40 years, pinhookers and commercial breeders have driven profound changes in the nature of Thoroughbred racing in this country.  Unfortunately, their state of the art product is no faster than past racehorses, but far less durable, much more fragile, and possessed of embarrassingly low levels of stamina.  The whole aim of a big piece of the breeding industry is to get horses to run fast early in their careers, yet only four make it to the first Grade I of the season?  Think maybe those 10-second furlongs by babies with toothpick-thin legs at the 2-year-old sales have hidden, additional price tags attached?

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Also this weekend, the entire northeastern United States put on their weather caps to predict where Hurricane Earl was going to go.  This is a major pet peeve of mine.  How come nobody really cares or talks about the weather 360 days a year, but the five days a year when a big storm is approaching, the average person suddenly starts talking like they have multi-million dollar satellites in their basement?  It drives me crazy to hear someone say, “Oh, I think we’re going to get hit pretty bad.”  (Unless that person is Al Roker or Jim Cantore.)  The only information we as the general public gets concerning the weather comes from what we see on TV.  Why, then, do some people talk like they work for The Weather Channel?  “We won’t get hit.  I won’t be that bad.”  How in the world do you know?  Just wait and find out how bad it’s going to be like the rest of us. 

And while I’m on the theme of weather pet peeves, when I stopped by my secret fishing beach in Sea Bright Friday night to check on the surf, I suddenly found myself thinking it was the Fourth of July.  Seemingly half the town was walking around, people had beach chairs set up on the sea wall, and it was almost a party atmosphere.  The reason – everyone was out to see the “huge” waves.  As a fisherman, I have a large interest in the ocean and often find myself wandering down to take a peak at the conditions.  My only question is where are all of these people during some of our winter storms when the waves were three times as big as they were on Friday.  I’m not saying fair-weather fans, but…

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The NFL season starts in a couple weeks (I think) so let’s have our first football discussion on the MP Blog.  During the pre-game for one of the recent Jets pre-season games, the question posed was is Tom Brady to Randy Moss the best quarterback-wide receiver combination in the AFC East.  Some of the panelists actually said that they weren’t.  Uh, hello!!  Why are so many people in the sports media so short-sighted?  Maybe it was a down year for the Patriots last year, but the Brady-Moss combo is still far-and-away the most lethal in the division.  And not only are they number one, but Brady to Welker is number two.  Mark Sanchez is nothing special yet (despite all the talk), Miami’s Chad Henne has never played a full NFL season and…who plays for the Bills again? 

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To end this fired-up Sunday blog is another major pet peeve of mine.  Have you ever asked somebody to change something or asked a question about why something is, and they respond with, “Well, that’s just the way it is” or “That’s the way it’s always been”?  Kiss my pork butt with that nonsense.  “That’s the way it’s always been” is the dumbest comment I think a person can make (depending on the situation of course).  If “that’s the way it’s always been” was the world’s motto, we wouldn’t have freedom of speech, every dispute would end in a duel, and I would have been married 10 years ago (at age 15).  How about going out on a limb and taking a stand?  How about fighting for the right cause?  How about doing something that people might look back at in 20 years and say, “Wow, so and so made the right choice changing that from the way it used to be.”  Laziness is not the greatest quality to have.  Don’t be afraid to try something different.  And definitely don’t not do something because it’s not “the way it’s always been done.”

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Monmouth Pork/Kiss my pork butt…too corny…Yeah, I think so too!

Brad Thomas’ Why I Like Horse Racing 

Trainers tend to be a strange lot when it comes to communicating about their horses.  I once knew one who honest and truly almost always thought his horses would win.

“Well Bill, what about Oscar Barrera’s horse?  The guy has won 10 races this week.”

“I know nothin’ about that horse.  I care nothin’ about that horse.  MY horse is ready.  He’ll win by five.”

Another trainer NEVER believed his horse could win.

“Oh, I need one more work.”

“Why did Frankel have to enter here?”

“If only they’d just write me a non-winners of three races at 7 ½ furlongs or less in the last 16 ½ months going 5 ¾ furlongs.”

Both conditioners won with about 15% of their starters career-wise.  Obviously, the optimist had a horrendous opinion because even when his horses did win, they seldom scored by five lengths.  On the other hand, the pessimist proved himself a veritable seer of near Biblical genius since he was correct about 85% of the time.

Then there was the conditioner introduced to me in the racetrack restaurant by a mutual friend.  My new acquaintance quickly volunteered – VOLUNTEERED! – that the horse he was dropping way down in the 9^th race that day was precariously unsound.

“He’s a complete dead piece.  I’m praying someone claims him.”

Well, of course the gelding rose like Lazarus, scored easily, escaped unclaimed, and went on to win three in a row while steadily stepping up in class.  If that guy told me that Friday followed Thursday, I wouldn’t believe him.

I never ask trainers about what they think of their horses’ chances.  It’s unprofessional, but even if it wasn’t, too many are biased – in one way or another – or unwilling to be candid even if the questioner was their own mother.  Still, there are some trainers who’ll avoid me like the plague when they’re running a live horse.  They won’t say hello.  Won’t hold the door.  Won’t even look at me.  One fellow literally will do a pirouette when he sees me and walk – quickly – in the other direction.  It’s a dead tell and his next entrant invariably runs well – usually at good odds.

On the flip side, years ago there was the chronically low percentage conditioner who would chase me around the track as if I was Damascus’ rabbit and he was Dr. Fager.  He’d yell out the excuses for his latest, low-odds loser.

“His favorite goat died.”

“The night watchman’s flashlight spooked’em.”

I forgot the tongue tie.”

Recently, I ran into a trainer at the sink in the men’s room of the Administration building.  We said hello.  But then, completely unprompted, he said, “I’m dead this meet.  I got nothing.” 

I offered sympathy.  Then, in the next six racing days, he had five winners and has continued winning in clusters for weeks now.  Never believe anything you hear in a men’s room. 

However, there’s always the exception that belies the rule.  Once I was doing a television segment in which I was selecting a 20-1 shot for a variety of well-founded but subtle reasons.  As I was talking, the horse’s trainer strolled from the saddling enclosure to the walking ring.  As he came into the line of my vision, we locked eyes even as I continued speaking.  With a dead-pan, blank stare he slowly nodded his head up and down twice.  The horse won by five.

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Brian Skirka’s Thursday blog inspired some spirited and healthy debate.  I myself disagree with some of Brian’s points.

I don’t think horse racing is a sport.  Admission fees, personal seat licenses, advertising revenues, and merchandise sales don’t drive it.  Betting does.  To me, racing is gambling entertainment with sports aspects.

Stars never have and never will save horse racing.  Better betting (Oh, say 8% takeout on every wager on ever race in the country!) will.  Giving people a realistic chance of wining would be the most powerful marketing vehicle possible.  In the Seabiscuit era, racing had a virtual monopoly on gambling.  Part of the reason people adored Seabiscuit was they loved betting on him.  Today, they wouldn’t wait for his next race.  They’d play the lottery.  In the modern era, the monopoly is gone.  Racing’s pricing model should be adjusted to address the reduced demand that’s the natural result of increased competition.  That’ll attract new customers and keep established ones involved and playing more. 

There’s nothing wrong with rooting against Rachel Alexandra or any other horse if that’s what makes you happy.  The game is a big Grandstand with something for every taste.  For far too long, the industry has run and hid from debate and controversy.  Too bad.  Debate and controversy have spurred huge interest in other entertainment areas – movies, sports, politics, etc.

As for the responses to Brian’s blog, I found great irony in Bomass10’s comments.  He assailed Rachel Alexandra for running in soft spots in 2010.  But gave her no credit for her unprecedentedly aggressive 2009 campaign as a 3-year-old, while touting the deserved virtues of Zenyatta who, save for one race on home ground as a fully mature 5-year-old, has been handled like fine china throughout her career.  One can take either or neither side in the debate between the two great distaffers, but Rachel Alexandra surely isn’t the inferior of the two when it comes to overall quality of competition. 

Stevil rightly took a business approach to racing’s issues, but limited his vision to a short-term desire to downsize.  While consolidation can work at the right time and in the right place – witness the Monmouth Park Elite Meet – there also needs to be a long-term, national plan for growth.  Yes, I said growth.  Without it, a national industry in downsizing mode could find itself in five years – having so reduced demand for product, breeders, horses, and owners – needing to downsize again.  The net result might be a downward spiral to demise.  The best way to prevent this is by growing overall handle – not merely redistributing a finite national pool among have and have-not wagering platforms.  Lowering takout – on every race, on every bet, and at every track – is where the growth process can begin.

Players who bet on horses other than Rachel Alexandra aside, why would you want Rachel Alexandra to lose unless, of course, you’re a rival owner, trainer, etc?  In the eyes of the public, horse racing is a dying sport.  Right now, we have two superstars in Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra.  Wouldn’t it be the best thing for our sport for those two to keep on winning?  What positives come from Rachel losing?

About an hour after Persistently hit the wire ahead of RA, I received a call from my uncle who was in California for the Pacific Classic.  He said he was at an Indian Casino in San Diego where he watched Rachel run.  My uncle said he was really surprised by the uproar he heard when Rachel Alexandra was defeated.  Obviously, he was in the middle of Zenyatta country.  My question is, does Rachel losing make Zenyatta look better?  Does Rachel losing benefit all of those people in some way?  For a sport that needs all the positive attention it can possible get, I just don’t understand the joy that a Rachel Alexandra loss brought to so many people.

I’ll be the first to admit that I root against many professional sports teams and even specific players.  I go into each baseball year hoping the Yankees go 0-162.  For a variety of reasons (mostly their overall cockiness) I’ll go into this football season hoping the Jets miss the playoffs.  And I pray each night that Alex Rodriguez goes 0-5 with five strikeouts the next day.

The difference is baseball doesn’t need the Yankees or Alex Rodriguez to be a successful sport.  The NFL doesn’t need the Jets to go 12-4 in order to make money.  They’ll both be fine either way.  Horse racing needs superstars to help attract new fans.  It might sound weird to those of us die-hard racing fans, but I bet there are many people who drove the bus of the Rachel Alexandra fan club last year who don’t care about her this year because she finished second three times. 

With that said, why is it that people cheer for Rachel to lose more?  Doesn’t make too much sense to me.

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To say the last couple of weeks haven’t been the smoothest of my life would be a slight understatement.  There’s been a lot of blood, sweat, almost a few tears, and not many smiles over that time.  But while counting coupons last week (um, yes, that’s a lot of fun), I tried a tactic that always seems to cheer me up.  Country music.  For some reason, there’s something about country music that is just plain fun.  It seems like I can hear any song and become happier than I was.  During coupon counting on Sunday (isn’t that what all of you do on Sundays?), I stumbled across a nugget from the past.  The artist is Brad Paisley and the song is titled “Online.”  Check it out on Youtube and you tell me how you can’t watch that music video and smile.  Believe it or not, but a couple of hours of counting coupons actually de-funkified me thanks to those southern tunes.  And hoping to keep the good luck streak alive, I watched the CMA Music Festival on ABC.  

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During commercials of the CMA Music Festival last night, I switched over to watch the Mets lose again. (Did they actually end up losing?  I was just playing the odds.)  I saw that the Atlanta Braves had signed Rick Ankiel – that deal probably happened a year ago, but I only realized it now.  It made me think – how perfect of an Atlanta Brave is Rick Ankiel?  On a team forever based on pitching and defense, that never has any superstars (not counting the pitchers), and is relatively quite in the terms of media coverage (compared to the Yankees and Red Sox), the Braves are always good.  Why?  Because, year-in and year-out, they’re a team with gritty, hard working, blue collar players.  Add Rick Ankiel – who when he was younger, was a dominant left-handed pitcher who completely lost it mentally and couldn’t throw a strike.  He literally would throw pitches into the screen behind the catcher.  Instead of giving up, he worked to turn himself into an outfielder and is back in the major leagues.  Now he’s with the Braves, having a solid year, and right in the middle of the playoff hunt.  Just like the Braves always are.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Saratoga’s Travers Day card always produces dozens of horses destined for future success.  This year, the strong competition was very much influenced by a powerful inside speed bias on dirt.  In seven races, not a single winner moved wide all the way, all six sprints were taken by pace horses, and the single rallying winner was inside all the way in the mile and a quarter Travers, a contest featuring a fast pace and a field of modestly talented horses ill-suited for the classic distance.

In Race 9, returnee My Jen was pace-stung moving wide against the inside grain and should appreciate the more spacious Belmont oval.

In Race 10, First Passage improved against the double bias and with no pace help.  She, too, can move forward at Belmont. 

In Race 11, returnee Hurricane Ike verified his early season improvement going a distance too short off the bench.  He was off slow from an inside post, was used hard trying to move into a sizzling pace, and held very decently despite being in tough position.  A mile around one-turn is perfect and a middle distance two-bends likely would work as well.

Monmouth Park Trip Notes 

August 28 

Race 1 – Whodat Say Whodat was overmatched off a mini-layoff, set a fast pace against a strong double bias, and still finished far in front of all his early foes.  Dropping in both claiming price and into the state-bred ranks would help him immensely.

Race 4 – Sinner’s Repent moved decently late on a dull rail in a cycle-forward try off the claim by an underrated barn and A Bit of Madness set extremely fast fractions while racing against the profound grain.

Race 5 – Max Hazard improved on the drop racing against the bias and still managing to put away the contest favorite in a pace fight.  He still has room for another drop.

Race 9 – My Lily Lane was too far back early to make a dent with her grinding run.  She needs a better draw and more pace.

Proponents and opponents of dirt and synthetic surfaces have hardened, uncompromising attitudes – much like those on the extremes of our national political discourse.  However, the honest truths that seem self-evident are:

A) Dirt produces the truest racing results from the perspective of most horseplayers and the more than a century of Thoroughbred breeding in this country.

B) Many horses with genuine dirt prowess, but who have trained and legged up competitively on synthetic surfaces, tend to run lights-out going artificial to real.

Perhaps the bold, new racetrack of the future has a legitimate synthetic training facility and a hyper-modern dirt course for actual racing. 

A couple of weeks ago, my brother and I were watching Del Mar on TVG and decided to play a game involving the Daily Racing Form that we were looking at.  On the inside of the Form’s front cover, it lists the top 25 money earnings for horses in 2010.  My brother would ask me, “Who is 18^th on the list,” and then give me clues until I got the right answer and so on and so forth.  (Yeah, we’re really cool, I know.)

Anyway, once I guessed a couple, I took the Form and found a good one for him to guess.  I passed on the obvious ones and landed on a tricky horse that I thought was gettable because he had run in the Kentucky Derby and at Monmouth Park later in the year.  Clue after clue after clue and my brother still had no idea.  Finally, I gave in and told him the horse was Discreetly Mine.

His answer, “I have never heard of Discreetly Mine.”

About a month later – now fully aware of Discreetly Mine solely based upon that night of boredom – my brother singled the King’s Bishop winner in the double along with Travers winner Afleet Express.  The winning double was half solid handicapping (Afleet Express) and half dumb (literally) luck.

By the way, at 3:51 pm on Friday, August 27, TheLeopard (that would be my brother) posted a comment proclaiming his selection of Afleet Express and the pending double with Discreetly Mine.  Finally, a good reason to read the Monmouth Park Blog.

Brad Thomas’ Monmouth Park Diary 

August 27 

Trainer Paul Kopaj nearly stole the first race with runner-up Oakridge Red.  The 9-1 third-time starter was putting blinkers on, dropping to state-bred maiden claimers for the first time, and was switching to jockey Omar Figueroa – who already had won a race this meet for the low-profile outfit.  Every Kopaj entrant provides a lesson in past performance reading for striving horseplayers.  The guy really, really knows the game.

Loved Barely Nothing’s blinkers on return from a two-month layoff in the second race.  He broke alertly, was taken back behind a couple of superior pace horses, but continued trying to the wire in a fast final quarter.  His dam, Paisley Park, was as game as they come and I suspect this guy will be too when dropped into the right spot.

Hottentot Sunday’s coat shone with radiant good health in the post parade before Race 3 and the gelding delivered a 10-1 score in his first try around two turns.  Pace rival Ontothenextone seemingly put him away with an upper-stretch burst, but the Ed Broome trainee came again to get up at the wire.  The winner’s performance was the definition of a horse outstaying a foe.  Conditioner Broome’s horses are running superbly and frequently tout themselves with their pre-race appearance.

In the fourth race, Five Mill gamely held on as the only inside-all-the-way dirt winner of the day.  Low-profile trainer Dan Bielak (who enjoyed success a few years ago with a similar veteran claimer named The Midnight Skier) was winning here third race off the claim.  Five Mill was second in his two previous starts for the conditioner.  Bielak clearly knows what he’s doing.  Also note the improved performance of Broome’s 77-1 Mi Cugat.

The program scratch of potential dominant speed Humble Song turned the fifth race’s shape upside down.  Improving pace-presence Dream Louise appreciated the soft scenario at 5-1.  Handicapping the night before is great, but pay attention to how scratches may adjust your thinking.  Be alert, take the time to re-analyze, and, most of all, don’t get married to a horse or a concept.  Flexibility is the mother of some of the biggest scores!

In Race 6, firster Jersey Nugget flashed excellent early speed outfooting early a couple of maiden special drop downs with solid pace figures.  He faltered into the lane, but can improve with the foundation and in a softer matchup.

Poor Corredor’s Song.  In Race 7, the veteran turf specialist looked to be in perfect, inside pocket position early, but then got shuffled repeatedly in the final six furlongs.  He finished next-to-last, but would have been right there with any clearance or aggression.  Wide pace-fighter Pointing Home ran deceptively well losing ground and also racing against the inside grain of the course.  He wound up far in front of his pace rivals. 

Wetzel, the 1-2 favorite in the 8^th race, was fourth in a Grade III stakes in April.  The 2-year-old next showed up 119 days later in this $40,000 claimer.  It wasn’t a positive sign even for connections who play aggressively and frequently drop live horses.  Wetzel was a dull fourth and went unclaimed.  Winner Bravo Romeo drifted up from 5-2 to 9-2 in the final moments when the lemmings packed the cliff in pursuit of Wetzel.  If you don’t like a short-priced favorite, the way that late money from simulcast sites drives final odds on other horses upwards demands that shrewd players wait for the final minutes to fully leverage their opinions.

Jockey Eibar Coa culminated a typically brilliant day at Monmouth with a front-running score in the 9^th race on 13-1 Tactical Weapon.  In four other mounts on the card, Coa also won at 9-2 and 5-1 while finishing second at 13-1.  Coa’s overall skill set is strong in every area, but his greatest strengths are his ability to think ahead and execute adjustments.  But by the way, watch a replay of this race and tell me how Tactical Weapon held on.  It’s all about bobs and camera angles, but Waltzing Blue sure looked like he got up to my naked eyes!

In the 10^th race, rested trainer Bruce Alexander claim Easy Gallop made a good backstretch burst on a dull rail against a strong field.  An outside post on the drop would suit him just fine.

Speed-popping Great Gray in Race 11 earned a towering pace figure on a slowish strip for a $7,500 combination conditioned claiming 3-year-old filly.  She shouldn’t be afraid of cutting back to 5 ½ furlongs or less.  It’s hard to see because she’s wearing light silks and is in the back of the pack for much of the race, but check out the sustained, race-long move by Amazing Ariel.  It commenced in a first quarter that was blazing as the dirt played on the day.

In the 12^th race, the first two finishers both were on the comeback trail following layoffs of more than a year.  The difference was that winner Philotimo had early foot and a return effort under his belt while runner-up Miami Hammer was a deep closer in his first start back.

The rail was a priceless mix of gold and platinum at Saratoga on Travers Day and being on or near it throughout made all the difference in the world for Afleet Express, the winner by the narrowest of margins.  Credit the erstwhile rail-hater with gaining on-the-inside seasoning in the Jim Dandy, learning from it, and becoming a better, more versatile colt as a result.  But make no mistake, runner-up Fly Down was tons the best losing considerable ground and also rallying into the teeth of a profound inside speed bias.  If he had changed leads, the masterfully-prepped Nick Zito trainee would have won easily.  He’s handily the second best 3-year-old dirt horse in the country behind Lookin at Lucky.  A Little Warm had no chance with his outside journey and Friend or Foe actually performed amazingly well considering his absolutely impossible trip.  The latter has rushed to make humungous strides in a very short period of time.  With about six to eight weeks of rest, he can come back as a truly prime-time player.  And as a 4-year-old, they all might have to look out for Friend or Foe when he finally gets his crack at Churchill Downs!

In Brad Thomas’ contribution to last Sunday’s blog, he pointed out the importance of picking non-winners.  Unfortunately, I’ve been doing a good job of that in my actual wagers recently, but let’s take a look at this weekend’s major races and try to find some likely short-priced horses that it might be worth playing against:

Grade II Bernard Baruch (Friday, Saratoga) – Whatsthescript is the second choice on the morning line despite having not won a race since August 24, 2008.  (Since his last win he was injured, retired, and then un-retired.)  A win in this race, makes this 6-year-old a millionaire, but he won’t be a use for me if he stays near his 4-1 morning line.  Speedy favorite Get Stormy, strong closer Baletti and the improving Rogue Victory are the three for me in the Baruch.

Grade II Ballston Spa (Saturday, Saratoga) – The morning line favorite at odds of 7-2 is Miss Keller.  This 4-year-old filly exits a win in a restricted stakes race at Saratoga and has never won a graded event (been second twice and third once).  She draws the rail in a 10-horse field which doesn’t appear to have a ton of speed to help set up her late kick.  Compared to some of the others in here, she just hasn’t been facing top-class competition.  I’ll lean towards Phola, who exits a pair of Grade I races; Dynaslew, who was extremely game in defeat last out in the Grade I Diana; Cherokee Queen, who has run well in every race (where the jockey stayed on) since being switched to trainer Marty Wolfson; and Maram, who runs well every time.

Grade III Victory Ride (Saturday, Saratoga) – It’s probably not the best of ideas to underestimate speedy Bob Baffert trainees, but 3-1 morning line favorite Rapport has never won – or even hit the board – on conventional dirt (0-4 lifetime).  Last out at Calder, this 3-year-old filly ran off early and had absolutely nothing left for the stretch drive.  It appears pretty clear that Rapport has some talent, but as the likely shortest-priced horse in the race, and having drawn inside of all other possible speed rivals, she may be a play-against on Saturday.

Grade I Ballerina (Saturday, Saratoga) – The top two on the morning line in here each have major question marks.  If you look at likely-favorite Informed Decision’s career record, she is 9-0-1 from 10 starts on synthetic (with a high Beyer of 105) and 8-4-0-3 on dirt (with a high Beyer of 96).  She’s a very solid mare no matter what, but clearly better on synthetic.  That’s a major concern at around 5-2.  Jessica is Back has been a play against for me for a long time.  In her life, she’s 15-8-1-1 on a wet track and just 28-4-12-2 on fast dirt.  Now that didn’t stop her from winning the Grade I Princess Rooney last out at Calder at 8.50-1, but she did have the home-course advantage that day.  Unless it rains between today at Saturday, I’ll be playing against a horse with four wins from 28 lifetime starts over a fast track – this being a Grade I race and all.  Warbling looks like the one for me in there. 

Grade I King’s Bishop (Saturday, Saratoga) – The problem with morning line favorite Discreetly Mine is, um, well…Yeah, I don’t see any problems.  Longshots can’t win every race and while Discreetly Mine could get upset, I would be stunned if anyone other than the top three – DM, D’Funnybone, and Bulldogger – won this race.

Grade I Travers (Saturday, Saratoga) – To me, this race just smells like a longshot is going to win it.  The distance is a question mark for morning line fav A Little Warm and second-choice Trappe Shot – the latter was still on the fence for this race a few hours before the draw.  There appears to be plenty of speed in the 10-furlong event, which could set things up for closers like Ice Box, Afleet Express, Fly Down and even 30-1 ML bomb Afleet Again.

Grade I Pacific Classic (Saturday, Del Mar) – In my opinion, a very vulnerable morning line favorite is The Usual Q.T.  A proven turf commodity, Mr. Q.T. has never won on the “main track” and is 10-8-1-0 on the grass.  When favored at 1.10-1 earlier this year in the Sunshine Millions Classic (on synthetic), The Usual Q.T. checked in ninth of nine.  I’ll pass on him in the Classic.  I actually was planning on liking ML second choice Richard’s Kid to repeat until the race was drawn and I saw the jockey assignments.  Maybe I’m reading too much into it (and nothing at all against Mike Smith), but why is Martin Garcia scheduled to ride for Baffert at Saratoga instead of in the $1 million Pacific Classic.  He’s been working bullets all month, but something has me scratching my head now about Richard’s Kid.  Like I said, maybe I’m reading too much into it.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

The nationwide jockey colony is in a state of flux.  Many of the top-class veterans have retired in recent years and the new wave of younger riders is still sorting itself out.  However, I’ve completed my evaluation.  Eibar Coa is the best jockey in the United States.  He’s consistent, versatile and adaptable.  He’s good out of the gate, has soft but strong hands and finishes well.  Coa has strategic vision and also can adjust tactically on the fly.  He has imagination, creativity, a sense of precisely how to ride every type of race, and a seemingly intuitive sense of when to send and when to sit.  Witness his ride on 16-1 Grade III Iselin upsetter Duke of Mischief.  Coa thrust the colt into the mix, ahead of deep closers but just off those pace-involved – a semi-aggressive, semi-patient positioning tactic that is one of his specialties – saved as much ground as possible while staying off the dullish true rail, and swung out on the second turn at the perfect moment to pounce on the leaders while beating the deeper ralliers to the punch.  The performance was one of routine excellence, but Coa’s 2002 triumph on Molly Pitcher winner Atelier might have been the best ride I’ve ever seen at Monmouth Park.  The filly broke last from an outside draw on a day when the inside was gold and speed was super.  While the other jockeys dawdled early waiting for somebody to take the lead and inexplicably avoiding the rail, Coa angled sharply to the fence and gunned past his sleeping rivals to the lead.  It was a fast-thinking, tactically-flexible, and operationally-brilliant masterpiece.  Coa’s skills might play better on smaller racetracks rather than the more spacious New York ovals.

Trip Notes 

August 20 

Race 1 – Wildcat Kid improved second time out behind two quality foes.  He’s still green and ran with his head high and unfocused through the stretch.  The gelding could be a candidate for blinkers.

Race 6 – Indy’s Alexandra was rated into absolute submission while stretching out in her turf debut for a new barn.  The filly’s best weapon is her speed and she will make a far better showing by employing it in a return to dirt.

Race 9 – King Red set a live pace on a dull rail vs. a sharp early foe first time two-turns and held deceptively well.  It was a race he can improve on when third off a layoff and possibly encountering more even conditions.

Race 11 – Straightfromtheheart re-discovered his erstwhile speed dueling with and ultimately dispatching two very tough pace foes for the level.  The New Jersey-bred should have multiple condition book options to compete against weaker in September.

August 21 

Race 3 – Both Dubai Gold and Jake’s Bandaid are closers who were severely compromised by tepid fractions.  The former wants more distance while the latter can bounce back at the same one-mile route when the pace is stronger. 

Race 5 – Smooth Sailing battled more-seasoned foes on a dullish rail in a needed effort and craves an outside draw.

             Jax Maxx was run off his feet early by quicker splits, but kept coming throughout.  His active motor is best suited by two turns. 

Race 8 – Miner’s Tune again was hurt by an outside post and the presence of sharp speed foes to her inside.  Still, she made multiple moves despite relative hard use and ground loss.  The filly has a deceptively strong grass pedigree, but needs to find a field whose pace scenario she can control.

August 22 

Race 5 – Scavezzato continued his subtle improvement making a mid-race burst on a surface he didn’t especially like.  He’s eligible for an underneath piece – at least – at a big price when he returns to turf.

Recently, two long-time horseplayers approached me after a heavy favorite lost and mused about how much money the track must have made as a result.  Well, as anybody who’s bet on more than two races in their life should know, a standard percentage is taken out of all pari-mutuel pools regardless of outcome.  The track doesn’t care who wins.

And all season, other experienced bettors, most of whom are well informed about current events in general, have made comments to me reflecting scant knowledge concerning the goings-on of the business side of racing at this critical time for the industry.

It boggles my mind that people who love something so much, still fail to take the time and effort to learn its basic mechanics and issues.

Yes, to many folks, racing is a relaxing recreational vehicle used to relieve the stresses of the modern world.  But if you’re playing this game in the first place, you’ve already chosen to exercise you’re mind even while having fun.  Why not exercise it just a tiny bit more?  Being informed is the best way to get – and to continue to get – the most out of horse racing. 

If you want to witness a true work of genius, pull up the race replay for the 11^th race on Friday, August 20 and just watch and listen.  Beginning as the field reaches the top of the stretch, track announcer Larry Collmus fires off about five reasons why he is the best in the country at his profession.  After already calling ten races on the day, Collmus was still in A+ form for this $5,000 claimer as he realized a rallying threat was a “huge longshot.”  He was also right on top of a handful of horses getting stuck in traffic simultaneously – some on the inside, some on the outside, some surrounded by horses – all the while mentioning every contender in the ever-changing stretch-run.  It seemed like every stride a new horse took the lead, or a new horse was stuck in traffic – and the premier track announcer in the business was all over it. 

Leading up to Saturday’s Arlington Million, there was no doubt in my mind that Gio Ponti was the best turf horse in America – by far.  The day after the Arlington Million, there is still no doubt that Gio Ponti is – by far – the best turf horse in our country.  HOWEVER, last year’s turf champion is clearly not even in the upper echelon of turf horses in the world.  The horse that blew past him in the stretch of the Million was not even a highly-ranked grass animal in his home country.  Apparently, the top two Europeans expected for the Million didn’t even come for the race.  After watching Debussy run past Gio Ponti pretty easily in deep stretch on Saturday, it’s obvious the European imports are clearly the ones to beat in EVERY major turf stakes the remainder of the year in North America – whether that be in the U.S. or Canada.  In 2005, the Euros swept the superfecta in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.  With Gio Ponti a possibility for the fourth spot, look for an encore in 2010.

After work yesterday, I went home and found the replay of NYRA’s Alabama broadcast on MSG while channel surfing.  Leading up to the race, the show featured stories on this year’s participants and past Alabama winners.  Trainer Shug McGaughey was interviewed about his win in the 1994 Alabama with Heavenly Prize.  He spoke about how that win was ultra-sweet because it came over heavy favorite Lakeway – a filly who previously defeated one of McGaughey’s other top fillies in a major Saratoga stakes.  According to McGaughey, Lakeway’s winning trainer and owners were very exuberant that day – making Shug hungry for revenge.  He entered Heavenly Prize in the Alabama in search of redemption against Lakeway and the connections that celebrated so energetically earlier that year – and you know what, she won. 

I loved every word of what I heard from McGaughey.  I wish racing had more of this rivalry kind of stuff as opposed to the “oh, I don’t want to run my horse, the field is too tough” attitude many trainers and owners have now.  Where I come from, you’re not going to win every battle in sports.  Sometimes, the best part is getting revenge – even if it takes two, three or ten tries.  After listening to McGaughey, it was fitting that Blind Luck – a horse who has run in every big race, against all comers, no matter the venue – won the Alabama.  Too bad she’ll probably face small fields the rest of her life because of everyone not wanting to run against her.  (“Hey, there has to be an easier spot somewhere.”)  When I played sports, I always wanted to be the best.  Most of the time that means you have to beat the best.  Too bad current-day connections in this sport are more conservative and concerned about other things.  

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

I didn’t think Blind Luck had a prayer against Devil May Care in the Alabama.  I was wrong, but I’ve seen the light.  At this point in the season, Blind Luck is the front-runner for Horse of the Year honors – and no one else is even close.  HOY is about blending talent with achievement.  Blind Luck is the best 3-year-old in the country by a significant margin and she’s far and away the most accomplished horse in 2010.  In the modern era of abbreviated campaigns selfishly micro-managed for perceived benefits only to specific connections rather than the enjoyment of the racing public, the development of more durability for the Thoroughbred gene pool, and the overall good of the industry at large, we need to reward horses who continually compete throughout the year at classic distances.  Blind Luck has won major races on dirt and synthetic, wet track and dry, and in California, Arkansas, Kentucky, Delaware, and New York.  In winning the Alabama, she took what is, sadly, the only Grade I race on dirt for 3-year-old fillies.  She’s consistent, super-game, highly durable, willing to travel and take on all comers, and extremely good.  Blind Luck is everything a HOY should be and no one else so far this year has proven themselves on anything near a comparable level.

Many handicappers try to pick winners.  But sometimes it’s more important to pick losers – especially ones who are favorites.  If a horse is taking way too much money, chances area virtually every other horse in the race is higher odds than he should be.  Ultimately, the game isn’t about picking winners – it’s about finding value.  The surest way to do that is to understand vulnerable favorites.

August 20 

Race 5 – Wildly Lana (5-2) hadn’t really moved forward in her four starts, even with the addition of blinkers two-back, and her inability to close the deal in abbreviated sprints surely did not bode well for her stretch out to 5 ½ furlongs.

Race 6 – Kiawah Cat (7-5) was multiple graded stakes placed yet chose this unaggressive optional allowance spot while cutting back to 1 1/16 miles (on a tight-turned, short-stretch turf course) from a series of races at 1 1/4 , 1 ½, and 1 7/16 miles.  Such extreme cut-backs are extremely difficult even for top class competitors. 

Race 10 – Royal Fortune (4-5) was a New York shipper who never even had competed in a five-furlong race and also was saddled with the extreme outside draw.  New York turf sprinters with lofty speed figures at slightly longer distances are routine plays against on this circuit.  It’s a matter of pace – the shippers are run off their feet by the breakneck fractions laid down by the locals who are comfortable with the frenetic scenario.  Royal Fortune wasn’t even anywhere near the early lead in NY races at more relaxed distances of 5 ½ and six furlongs.  She did very well to finish fourth after a wide trip. 

August 21 

Race 2 – Raybern’s Gold (3-5) was a $7,500 claimer from an inside post in a 12-horse field.  No further explanation is necessary.

Race 11 – Just about every horse in the Grade III Iselin was overbet.  Racehorse by scheduled-well-in-advance appointment only Redding Colliery was the 1.10-1 favorite despite a marked step up in class.  I Want Revenge was 1.50-1 based on his 2009 reputation and record.  Gone Astray (6.40-1) and Sir Whimsey (7.10-1) took action speculating on what they might become.  But Duke of Mischief – an absurd overlay at 16-1 after being only 6.50-1 two starts ago in the Grade I, 11-horse Stephen Foster against the best classic dirt horse in the world – showed a major league speed figure three-back and was better rested than he was when a tepid 2^nd last out in the Grade III Salvator.  He wasn’t the likeliest winner, but he certainly proved to be the best bet! 

Alabama (Saratoga) – Well, looky what we have here.  It’s a match-up between Kentucky Oaks winner Blind Luck and three-time Grade I winner – and my Kentucky Derby pick – Devil May Care.  (Yeah, I guess that didn’t work out to well for me.)  In 2008, a pair of standout fillies – Music Note (2-5) and Proud Spell (9-5) – put on a stretch-long show in the Alabama.  This year, the two best 3-year-old fillies in the country appear to be headed for a similar confrontation in the lane.  Devil May Care (7-5 morning line) has a career record of 8-5-0-0.  If you excuse all three of her losses (synthetic surface in BC Juvenile Fillies, extreme rankness at Fair Grounds, and, well, the Kentucky Derby), Devil May Care would be undefeated.  If you take Blind Luck’s four dirt races, she IS undefeated.  (She’s not too bad on synthetic either.)  For handicapping purposes, I’ve believed that Devil May Care is the best 3-year-old filly in the country for a while now.  Blind Luck is obviously a formidable foe, but I’m not changing my mind for this race.

Secretariat (Arlington) – It’s another stop in the Let’s See if Paddy O’Prado is the Second Best Turf Horse in the Country Tour.  Behind Gio Ponti – who we’ll get to later – there’s really not that much depth in the American turf ranks, so maybe this 3-year-old can surprise some of his older rivals later in the year.  The Colonial Turf Cup and Virginia Derby winner is even-money on the morning line to win the Secretariat in a field of seven.  Paddy O’Prado towers over or has already beaten five of his competitors leaving just European-import Wigmore Hall as the main challenge.  With a lifetime record of 9-4-2-1, Mr. Hall appears to have some talent, but he’s never run in a Group race.  With a repeat of his last couple efforts, I’ll look for Paddy O’Prado to kick off Arlington’s All-Grade I Stakes Pick 3 in short-priced fashion.

Beverly D. (Arlington) – Now, this is one wide-open race.  The morning line favorite is 4-1, seven horses in the race have spent the majority of their respective careers in a foreign country, and who in the world is going to set the pace?  I’ll take a shot with Euro Pachattack – at least in terms of who will set the pace – and from there, who knows, it could be anyone.  Every horse in this race seems to have the same credentials.  One thing that seems clear is the lack of pace on paper.  That leads me to want to shy away from deep closers such as Acoma and (ML fav) Rainbow View.  Treat Gently might be worth taking a shot with off back-to-back graded stakes wins.  It is Bill Mott after all – toss all your own peril.

Arlington Million (Arlington) – As mentioned above – and in weeks prior on this blog – Gio Ponti is clearly the best turf horse in America.  It’s not even that close.  With that said, he is not the best turf horse in the world, and the Million does feature three European imports.  It appears on paper, and the morning line agrees, that Tazeez is the best of the Euros.  His overseas form seems to indicate improved performance on firm turf and two back he finished three-quarters of a length behind multiple Group I winner and 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic third-place finisher Twice Over.  This race doesn’t appear to have a ton of early look either, and according to his running lines this 6-year-old does his running early.  He’ll definitely be on the ticket with Gio Ponti.  Marsh Side has a chance at a price, but if it happens to rain in Chicago between now and Million post time on Saturday, those chances improve drastically.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

Looks Can Be Deceiving…

On the surface, Afleet Express, winner of Monmouth’s Grade III Pegasus and the 5-2 second choice in the Grade II Jim Dandy, ran a tepid third at Saratoga.  Actually, he performed deceptively well – especially for a horse very sensitive to trip.

Afleet Express was off slowly from an inside draw, forced to move up quickly to get position, was stuck inside where he doesn’t want to be, got in rhythm (which is what he wants to do), but then had to be hustled to attack earlier than he prefers, experienced some upper-stretch traffic issues, and finally settled to finish stronger than anybody.

He’s very dangerous with an outer-more draw allowing him to stake out easier attack position going a furlong farther in the Grade I Travers. 

Wickedly Perfect will be underrated until she runs a fast speed figure.  Hopefully, that day won’t come before she exposes how good she can be going two-turns.

In Del Mar’s Grade III Sorrento, she pace-pressed sizzling fractions (especially for 2-year-old fillies going 6 ½ furlongs in early August), wasted her early rivals, moved to the lead into the lane with her ears buzzing playfully, and easily repulsed two well set-up closers.  She pulled up strongly and sustained her long, smooth stride throughout the experience.  Yes, she needs to learn to slow down a bit early, but nothing in her pedigree suggests that will be a long-term problem.  Wickedly Perfect might even be better on real dirt and has the physical scope to reach full potential at ages three and four.

Crown Me Wicked might not have a super-fashionable pedigree or lofty speed figures, but her race on the stretch out as a second-timer in Monmouth’s August 14 opener was a harbinger of stakes success. 

She never had a breather, battled tag-team like pressure, and was allowed to float to the dull rail in the stretch drive by an out-of-town jockey not familiar with the local nuances.  Worn down late by a much more experienced foe with a top-class pedigree, Crown Me Wicked will move may forward off the seasoning.

Crab & Seafood Chili – This option from Bahrs Landing in Highlands caught my eye right off the bat.  I mean, what could be better?  Crab, good.  Seafood, good.  Chili, GOOD.  This one looks like an interesting contender.

Clam Hut Po’ Boy – I’ve never actually had a Po’ Boy, but doesn’t it sound cool?  I might have to have one of those just to say I’ve experienced a Po’ Boy.

Grilled Grouper Sandwich – This offering from Ike’s Famous Crabcakes had me at grouper.  One of greatest things I’ve ever eaten was a grouper sandwich at a sports bar in Florida.  If this sandwich is 75% as good as that one, you’re all going to be in for quite a treat.

Crab Cake with Horseradish Remoulade served with Corn and Black Bean Salsa:  Is it just me or does every single word of that sound delicious?  This item will be served up by The Lake House and is only $5.  Like I said, doesn’t every word of that sound delicious? 

Mud City Crab Cake Company Crab Cake Sandwich – They’ve been here all summer and let’s just say the publicity office has ventured out to their stand on more than one occasion.  Enough said.

Hungry Yet??  We’ll see you next weekend.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Trip Notes 

Monmouth Park 

August 13 

Race 1 – Second-timer Amazing Mary dropped to the local basement and ran a much improved race from both a pace and final figure standpoint.  She pulled up well and has more room to move forward, but likely needs another race or two and maybe even weaker still.

Race 2 – Pinfree looked very sharp pre-race and ran deceptively well behind three very strong rivals for the level.  She’s very dangerous dropping back to conditioned company here or elsewhere.

Race 6 – Firster Beach Badge failed to change leads and was very green overall.  She’ll improve with racing experience and stretching out to a longer sprint. 

               Paulsbourbonbaby made up a large amount of ground in her second start (1^st-time Lasix) following a tardy break.  She’s hard to evaluate right now from class and distance-preference standpoints, but clearly is better than her high odds. 

August 14 

Race 2 – Baba Lilly was able to stay a bit closer early on the drop to claimers and could fit nicely vs. tagged state-breds in September.

Race 7 – Twisted Heart’s low percentage career record is largely a function of being in tough spots and preferring wet tracks.  He made several moves here and is deceptively sharp for a drop and/or sealed strip.

Race 8 – New Jersey-bred Chocolate Blush showed she can run a bit on turf while also gaining useful conditioning for a drop to claimers.  Might need one more for a shrewd barn best when it closely clusters races.

Saratoga 

July 31 

Race 10 – Friend or Foe was hung wide and pace-stung making a big leap into top company, but still fought hard throughout and managed to pull up strongly looking for even more to do.  The Travers could be too much too soon, but this colt competed like he has a major win in him at some point.

August 8 

Race 9 – Bribon made a huge middle move against pace, bias and trip in an elite 6-furlong field.  Going seven panels – and maybe even getting a touch more pace – he can wait longer AND make a move controlled run. 

Del Mar 

July 24 

Race 7 – Red Star Humor made multiple moves but was stopped multiple times in his debut.  The long-strider needs a bit more distance and an outer-more draw.

Laurel 

August 14 

Race 6 – Shining Punch finished well in his needed last when compromised by pace and a dull rail.  He likely prefers two turns at this point in his career.

That’s why I’ve never liked the Dallas Cowboys.  That’s why I’ve never rooted for the New York Yankees.  And that’s why I was happy when Holli won Hell’s Kitchen on Tuesday. 

Over the past few years in horse racing, there have been some heavy favorites that I’ve rooted for – Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta to name a few – but overall, I prefer to root along animals I find underrated.  Some of my “underrated favorites” from the past couple of years are Baletti, Parading, Rogue Victory, Dynamoor and Congressional Page.

With only three months until the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs – and with dozens of Grade 1 races still to come this summer/fall – here are some of my underrated/not really talked about horses for the remainder of the year.

Musket Man – If you’ve been reading the blog this past month, I’m sure you don’t find him not really talked about, but I think a lot of people in the mainstream racing media are overlooking this guy.  His skeptics will say that he’s never won a big race – which is true if you don’t consider the Tampa Bay or Illinois Derbies big races – but there has to be something said about a horse who shows up in Grade 1 races and HAS NEVER FINISHED OFF THE BOARD.  Whether it’s seven furlongs at Aqueduct or 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs, Musket Man ALWAYS runs his race.  He’s been a little unlucky this year with traffic and race set-ups, but on his best day, he’s more than capable of capturing Grade 1 glory.  Look for him in the Woodward at Saratoga, Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont and the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile/Classic at Churchill Downs.

Warrior’s Reward – What percentage of racing fans do you think know that this guy is a Grade 1 winner?  Another horse who has proven to be ultra-consistent (has hit the board in 10 of 14 starts), this 4-year-old has turned into a powerhouse late-running sprinter in 2010 – highlighted by a nose victory over Musket Man in the Grade 1 Carter in April.  He hasn’t raced since Memorial Day (by the way, throw out that race in the Met Mile as he was WAY too close to the pace), so he should be regrouped and rested for a strong last half of the year.  Look for him in the Forego at Saratoga and the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile/Sprint at (his home track) Churchill Downs.

Devil May Care – Ok, this three-time Grade 1 winner is not underrated or not really talked about AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FILLY, but I don’t hear much about her as one of the best female horses in the country.  Now, before you start screaming, let me explain my thinking.  Let’s assume Zenyatta continues her undefeated streak.  Won’t she defend her crown in the Breeders’ Cup Classic?  And let’s assume Rachel Alexandra wins her next couple of starts.  Won’t she finally take on Zenyatta in the Classic?  That leaves a wide-open filly and mare division for Devil May Care to pounce on in the Distaff…um, Lady’s Classic.  Next up is a battle with Kentucky Oaks winner Blind Luck in the Alabama at Saratoga, but I’m anxious to see what she can do against her elders beneath the Twin Spires.

Vineyard Haven – He’s only not really talked about because he’s run just once this year, but this 4-year-old is a Grade 1 winner and proven top-class sprinter.  His first start of 2010 came less than a month ago, so it’s almost a given that his best races are still to come.  Throw out his fourth-place finish in Dubai last winter and he’s never been off the board in eight U.S. starts.  He’s won at distances from 5 ½ furlongs to a mile so he’s a candidate for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint or Dirt Mile and the Forego at Saratoga is supposedly his next scheduled event.  

Paddy O’Prado – In a turf division that seemingly is Gio Ponti and, well, everyone else, why not take a look at a 3-year-old to make some noise at the end of the year?  Obviously, the European contingent for races like the Breeders’ Cup Turf is surely going to be strong, but there’s nothing wrong with Mr. O’Prado’s turf resume.  He’s won three graded stakes on the lawn in 2010 and is set to try Grade 1 company next Saturday in the Secretariat at Arlington.  As mentioned above, the turf division is not going to blow anyone’s socks off this year, so don’t be surprised to see Paddy O’Prado finishing strongly in races like the Turf Classic at Belmont and the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Check the Label – I mentioned this filly a couple weeks ago on the blog and she’s still right on the tip of my brain in terms of horses for the future.  She’s on a three-race winning streak and was pretty dominant in all of those events.  She’s not proven around three turns or at the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Distance of 11 furlongs, but at the very least she seems like a prime contender for the QEII Cup at Keeneland.

Silver Timber – He’s only underrated because the turf sprint division is not the most glamorous, but this guy has to be one of the best in the country at what he does.  I was standing about 10 feet away after he won the Wolf Hill at Monmouth Park when jockey Joe Bravo jumped off and told trainer Chad Brown that “no horse in the country can beat him.”  Now, unfortunately, he did lose next out in the McSorley, but that was to an alone-on-the-lead frontrunner.  Now that the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint is not down a hill, look for Silver Timber to come knocking on November 7.  And be sure to check him out in the winner’s circle of one of those turf sprints at Saratoga or Belmont this fall.

Treat Gently – She’s raced exclusively in graded stakes company since arriving in the U.S. from France and has only recently put everything together.  She was dominant in her American debut, but then tailed off a little before winning back-to-back graded stakes at Belmont and Delware.  Both of those recent wins came at 11 furlongs, and she does have experience running against premier European fillies and mares.  She’ll be a factor in the Flower Bowl at Belmont and I wouldn’t suggest disregarding any horse trainer Bill Mott sends to the Breeders’ Cup.

Gone Astray – After nearly going down while clipping heels in the Charles Town Classic and then finishing third in the Skip Away, this 4-year-old was completely forgotten about (dismissed at 7-1) in the five-horse Salvator Mile.  All he did that day was win by five lengths.  Gone Astray is a two-time Grade II winner and has experience at a one-turn mile – which may come in handy during the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

Secret Gypsy – Was an up-and-coming filly and mare sprinter at the beginning of last year, but hit a pretty big speed bump on the way to stardom.  Nearly 18 months later, this 5-year-old has won two in a row – including a Grade II at Saratoga this past weekend – and seems to have her court back in order.  She has experience over the Churchill strip and could be a price play in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. 

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories

Quality Road, beaten last Saturday in the Grade 1 Whitney at odds of 1-2, had not raced in 68 days since his Grade 1 Metropolitan victory.  Instead, he worked at least six times – with four of the drills being sharp and testing.  However, in the distant past, top handicap horses with championship aspirations – especially ones who never actually had been champions before – actually would run in real races during the months of June and July.  Frequently, the competition made them fitter, tougher and more focused.  There even was an old adage that one race was worth many works from a conditioning standpoint.  In the hands of old school trainers unafraid to race their horses, contest-toughened top athletes seemed less physically stressed from an active campaign than many modern horses seem to be from the contemporary cycle of a series of screw-tightening works building up to a supposedly peak performance.  Wonder if the connections of Quality Road have second-guessed their pre-Whitney strategy?  Nah – racing more often could increase your chances of losing.  Oh, but didn’t Quality Road lose anyway despite his sheltered, micro-managed racing schedule?

Trip Notes 

August 6 

Race 4 – Ponzi Scheme ran against a double bias behind a two-speed number when breaking from an outside post.  He’s still improving and has the tactical dimension to strongly utilize a better draw on turf.

Race 8 – Three Emeralds verified her turf prowess and sharp accelerating win two-back despite racing against the grain and getting no pace help.

August 7 

Race 4 – A Bit of Madness dueled hard on a dull rail against a quality rival and only finished behind closers.

Race 6 – No Three Words outran her all-stamina pedigree and regular but one-paced works in her 5 ½-furlong debut.  Two turns, on dirt or even turf, will be her game.

Race 7 – Centre Arena had no chance when overmatched and also racing against strong pace and bias situations.  He finished extremely well, nonetheless, and fits beautifully going longer vs. weaker.

Race 12 – Kaufman has rounded to peak form after putting away an underrated speed rival and only failing to last behind two extremely sharp rallying rivals for the level.  One mile on turf is his best race by far.

Sure, if you’re as good as Zenyatta is you might get bored facing inferior competition.  And Del Mar is not her favorite racing surface.  And she was very wide throughout behind excruciatingly slow fractions.  But in last Saturday’s Grade 1 Clement Hirsch, the great mare charged the gate right before the start (if the latch had been sprung a second or two earlier she would have been off very slowly and likely beaten), had to be asked a bit to clear a trailer into the first turn and again to keep up on the backstretch, did make a huge middle move, but then hung in the last eighth forcing jockey Mike Smith to ride her hard and, horrors of horrors, actually use the whip.  It was a Grade 1 performance for a filly or mare.  But it wasn’t a top caliber effort for a horse expecting to compete at the highest handicap or Breeders’ Cup Classic levels.  Perhaps Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra are at the same stages of their careers.  That doesn’t mean they are average horses by any stretch and could even make their eventual match-up (perhaps in the BC Distaff) more interesting, competitive and compelling.  Remember Ali-Frazier III?  Nothing was better than that!

What a crock!

Now, I’m not a lawyer, but I find the “he/she is not a really good horse because he/she hasn’t beaten anyone” argument to be laughable.  In baseball, do only the homeruns Albert Pujols hits off “good” pitchers count?  Is he not one of the best players ever because 50% of his hits were off of sub-par pitching?  When the Yankees beat the Royals, do we hold it against them?  Should they not be allowed to win their division because they play Orioles a lot during the season?  (For non-baseball fans, the Orioles are not very good.) 

In Zenyatta’s case, she has now won 18 consecutive races against mostly Grade I competition.  Now that obviously doesn’t mean that every horse in every one of her races has been Grade I quality, but shouldn’t she get some credit for NEVER FINISHING BEHIND A HORSE!?!?!?  And just because she doesn’t win each race by 10 lengths doesn’t mean she’s struggling to get up.  Horses are some of the smartest animals in the animal kingdom and could it just be that Zenyatta has learned where the finish line is.  Or maybe she knows from experience that when all of the horses are behind her, she really doesn’t have to run as fast anymore.  Saturday’s race wasn’t very visually impressive, but I think Zenyatta has learned to do only what she has to.  If she would have needed to make up a significant amount of ground in the stretch – like she did in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic – she would have exuded that much more energy to get her nose in front.  Bottom line: she’s a winner – and winner’s don’t like to lose!!

Speaking about Quality Road, is it his fault that there are no good older horses to run against?  If you throw out his wet-track races – until Saturday – Quality Road was dominant in victory.  He ran incredibly fast times, including multiple track records.  It shouldn’t be held against him that his competition hasn’t been that flattering.  Now he did lose on Saturday, but Blame is a very, very good horse and is currently the leading American hope in the Breeders’ Cup Classic – that’s not exactly a horrible loss.  (I will admit, though, it was a sub-par effort for Mr. Road.) 

Now, I’m not saying that Zenyatta and Quality Road are two of the best horses that have ever run.  I am saying that they should not be downgraded for beating inferior talent.  If Zenyatta wasn’t incredible, she would have lost at least once by now.  If Quality Road wasn’t extremely talented, he would never have set a single track record.  Why can’t we just celebrate these two horses as two of the best we have in the sport right now, instead of putting them down for beating inferior competition?      

Seemingly lost in the storyline of Quality Road losing to Blame in Saturday’s Whitney was the gutsy performance by third-place finisher Musket Man.  Usually one who likes to settle off the pace, Musket Man was a little sharp early and took it to heavy favorite Quality Road.  He came under a ride around the far turn – when seeing this I thought he was done – but fought back to take another run at Mr. Road before hanging on for third.  While he doesn’t win many races, Musket Man has danced all the dances and has never finished off the board in his life.  He was third in last year’s Kentucky Derby, third in the Preakness, second behind Quality Road in this year’s Met Mile and most recently third on Saturday.  He’ll likely have one or two races between now and then, but I’m looking for Musket Man to find the winner’s circle again at Churchill Downs on Saturday, November 6 – in a little race called the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

Life Lesson/Cliché of the Week – Worry about yourself and don’t fret about what other people say or think.  The way I look at life, there’s only one person’s opinion that matters and that’s yours.  No matter where you are, what you do, or who you hang out with, there’s always going to be someone or a group of people that think/say you’re not good enough, you’re not cool enough, or you shouldn’t be doing something.  Who cares?  Do things because you want to do them, and don’t worry about it when other people don’t like it.  If someone – or someone else’s friends – looks down at you, talks behind your back, or acts like they’re better than you, so be it.  As long as you’re happy with the way you live your life, that’s all that matters.   

Manners/Leadership Lesson of the Week – In life, some of the littlest things can make the most difference.  To me, a simple “thank you” can go a very long way.  I’m one of those people who will work my butt off, go well out of my way, or help out in any way pretty much regardless of who it is or what they ask me to do.  It’s just who I am and how I was raised.  I don’t expect anything in return – I just enjoy helping people and seeing them do well.  Whether it’s after a long day at work, or a morning helping out a friend, to hear someone say “thank you” – at least to me – makes it all worth it.  Unfortunately, not everyone out there says “thank you.”  A boss or friend that acknowledges my help makes me want to wake up earlier and/or work harder for them.  It’s minor in the grand scheme of things, but I really think saying “thank you” is the sign of a good leader.  A good leader appreciates his/her helpers as opposed to taking them for granted.  The moral of the story: “thank you” to the people out there who actually do say “thank you.”

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Many horseplayers don’t like to look back at past handicapping mistakes and search for what they missed.  They call it “redboarding” and disparage it with close-minded contempt.  Actually, they’re rationalizing their own laziness because there’s no better self-educative tool than the analyzation of past races.

August 6 

Race 1 – 10-1 winner Best Jazz was making his second start in the same class after a drop (an underrated angle made even more potent in his case since the plunge was into the basement), was cycling forward speed figurewise, and had a recent big number for the level to which to run back.

Race 3 – 27-1 runner-up Ontothenextone was stretching out 3^rd time form cycle, showed improved early speed last time, was switching to a 10-pound apprentice AND had FOUR long, stamina-building workouts in preparation for his first route try.  How often do you see that type of work pattern for a $10,000 maiden claimer?

Race 10 – Bling Bling Girl, 2^nd at 31-1 in her turf debut, had a sneaky, very good grass pedigree.  Thomas Cassidy’s Race Review in the track program noted the mare’s green female side of her pedigree, while those with decent memories (and memory is AN underrated but vital skill in this game!) should have remembered her sire, Texas Glitter, as a dominant turf sprinter on this circuit a few years ago.

August 7 

Race 3 – Turf-to-dirt frequently is a highly overrated, catch-all explanation for any horse who runs well off a surface switch that often is short-term experimentation without long-term meaning.  However, when it can be combined with other logical and inter-related factors, the angle can be lethally effective.  13-1 winner Take a Vow’s trainer, David Jacobson, clicks at a 22% rate overall, but wins 29% of the time, from a good sized sample, when he goes turf-to-dirt.  Clearly, Jacobson employs the move coherently.  Additionally, the filly herself, who was cycling forward generally, had improved her speed figure in the past when competing off that pattern.

August 8 

4^th Race – 45-1 winner Waking Up last raced on one of the dullest rails of the entire season on July 18.  An in-and-outer speed-figure-wise, he also was due to fire his A-game number – especially with less time between starts because most of his best efforts have come on relatively short rest.  Dropping a notch in class while still about the price of his February 23 claim, the colt was sent out by Philly Park-based trainer Ron Abrams, who had been in-the-money with four of his five previous Monmouth runners this season, and was ridden by Philadelphia jockey Roberto Alvarado. 

There were three incredibly impressive performances on IZOD Haskell Day.  One made me say WOW!!!!!  One made me say wow!!  And one made me say wow.

I had a pretty good feeling that Lookin at Lucky was going to run a big race, so his Haskell performance made me say wow.  When Afleet Again forced Lucky’s hand on the backside, I thought he might be in a little trouble.  But when I saw him still traveling in hand around the far turn, I thought things were about to get ugly for the rest of the field.  Going into the IZOD Haskell, I thought Lookin at Lucky was the horse to beat.  Therefore, his dominant win only made me say wow.

One race prior to the IZOD Haskell, Get Serious refused to lose when momentarily collared in mid-stretch by Violin Sacre.  It was definitely a wow!! performance.  I love human athletes with huge hearts – the ones that play hurt, thrive in the face of adversity, and/or play their best when the lights are shining the brightest.  It’s so cool to me when equine athletes show the same “refuse to lose” qualities.  Despite the fact that he was insanely rank in the early parts of the race, I was positive Violin Sacre was going to run right by Get Serious – that it, of course, until he refused to lose.

(With all due respect to the winner, if Violin Sacre can ever learn to settle early instead of throwing his head every which way, he could become a very serious – no pun intended – turf horse.)

I like to consider myself a pretty low-key person.  There’s not much that gets me really down and not much that really gets me excited.  With that being said, Sunday’s sixth race winner left me saying WOW!!!!!  Erin Rose, a first-time starter for renowned turf trainer Christophe Clement, dominated a six-furlong dirt race by ten lengths.  Around the far turn, this 3-year-old filly put in one of the most eye-catching turns of foot I’ve ever seen.  And then she continued on powerfully while in hand.  Erin Rose’s final time of 1:10.17 was only .58 seconds slower than Roaring Lion in the Teddy Drone Stakes.  This is one promising filly!

Just a few more interesting tidbits from recently that I’d like to touch on:        

On the Friday before the Haskell, the guys from the Shore Sports Report on 1310AM radio were on-site broadcasting live.  Normally on Friday’s I go on this show for 5-10 minutes to promote the upcoming weekend at Monmouth Park.  On Friday, I was on for about 30 minutes chatting about anything and everything.  During my time on air, a horse named Thewifedoesn’tknow won a race.  This prompted the radio host to ask me if I’ve ever bet on a horse just because of his/her name.  I spent the next 10 minutes fulfilling a lifelong mission – getting Hotstufanthensome’s name onto a public medium.  Too bad they don’t get 1310AM on his farm in Kentucky.  I bet he would have enjoyed that.  I know I did!

Usually when I’m fishing, the only thing that makes me smile is the sight of a large specimen attached to my line heading into the net.  On Monday’s trip, however, I had a different reason to smile.  Fishing a few people away from me were two best friends.  They spent all day in their own little world – catching fish, laughing, ribbing on each other.  As I stood their fishing by myself, it was really nice to see two seemingly lifelong friends enjoying a day together.  The topper though – one of the guys was completely blind.  And the other looked out for him all day.  Whether it was taking fish off the hook, baiting up, or walking around the boat – he was always there to lend a helping hand.  How could you not watch that and smile?

This Saturday, the Grade I Whitney highlights the card at Saratoga.  My parents and brother will be in attendance and the latter received a special treat when his favorite horse Musket Man was entered.  Unfortunately, trainer Todd Pletcher has spent the majority of the past few weeks talking about how phenomenally Whitney favorite Quality Road is doing.  When Pletcher says one of his allowance horses in doing very well, I take note.  When Pletcher says that his best horse is doing freakishly well, I start to worry for his competition.     

While watching Pardon the Interruption the other day, I saw “Five Good Minutes” with Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Madden.  Tony and Mike asked Joe how his – for the most part no-name – Rays can compete with the – all big-name – New York Yankees.  Having played baseball the majority of my life, and watched intently ever since my retirement, I could have answered that one.  The Rays are a team.  They get along, they don’t care about statistics, and all they want to do is win.  When they hit a home run, they don’t throw their hands up in the air and celebrate – as if to say, “hey look what I just did.  I’m so special.” – like a certain member of the Yankees did recently when hitting home run number 600.  They’re not 25 all-stars thrown together in a locker room.  They’re a cohesive unit that has grown together from the minor leagues until now.  The Yankees are obviously the most talented team in the Major Leagues – they have 10 all-stars on their team.  That superstar talent almost guarantees an occasional World Series ring.  But what the Rays have is the reason they’ll be good for a long time.  It’s why the Twins and Angels are always good.  It’s amazing what a cohesive team who plays for each other can accomplish.  Since the Mets are clearly not going anywhere this year – again – I’ll be rooting for the Rays from here on out.      

As I said before, because I’m pretty low-key – and by the way, there’s a big difference between low-key and boring – it’s not very often that I see something or do something that I find REALLY cool – something that gets me TRULY excited.  Over the years, I’ve been lucky enough to talk to Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert and Saeed bin Suroor.  I’ve petted Summer Bird, Any Given Saturday and English Channel.  With all due respect to those humans and horses, none of that left me thinking “Oh my god, this is the coolest day of my life!”  Maybe I’m a nerd, but when Hotstufanthensome defeated three Grade I winners in the Mac Diarmida Stakes at Gulfstream a few years back at 18-1, I got really excited.  When I was able to play an actual baseball game at Shea Stadium – including warming up in the bullpen and taking that jog from the pen to the mound – that was pretty darn cool.  Wednesday morning, I got to add another one to the list.  One of my friends from the backside recently brought her own 2-year-old to Monmouth Park to begin his racing career.  Other than some help from her friends who also work back there, this friend is all on her own.  She’s the owner, she’s the trainer, she cleans the stall, she cleans the horse, and she even gallops the horse.  On my way to work on Wednesday, I figured I’d stop by and say hi to both her and her new acquisition.  Little did I know, however, I would wind up working (for free of course).  Since my friend only has two hands, she let me hold the horse while she bathed him.  She even – probably unwisely – let me walk him around the barn to cool off.  To anyone who has ever worked on a farm, these are probably the simplest tasks you could possibly do.  I’m sure my friend thought I was completely insane each time I walked past her with the horse with a huge smile on my face.  But as I’ve said many times before, I’m just a racing fan.  I don’t expect to be doing these types of things.  To me, doing this was the equivalent of working at Citi Field and having Johan Santana ask me if I wanted to have a catch.  Obviously, not every racing fan gets to interact with the horses the way I was able to Wednesday morning.  Again, maybe I’m a nerd, but I thought that was pretty darn cool.  Imagine going to see your favorite band in concert and having them take you backstage to hang out and help get ready for the show.  Imagine going to a game and having your favorite athlete invite you onto to the field.  That’s kind of what this experience was like for me.  One thing I did make my friend guarantee me was that when this horse makes it to the Kentucky Derby, she refuses to talk to Daily Racing Form, ESPN or the NBC Nightly News about her story.  She comes to me first.  Maybe I didn’t work for free after all!!  All this horse has to do is make it to the Kentucky Derby and I’ll have exclusive rights to one of the best stories of the year.  Hey, it can happen!!     

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

He hasn’t been lucky – post position and trip-wise – for much of his career, but he’s lookin more and more like the best 3-year-old of his generation not named Eskendereya.

But IZOD Haskell winner Lookin at Lucky handles synthetic footing just fine and has lasted for far more than two top races against first-rate competition.  Eskendereya didn’t act on an artificial surface in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and burned out before fully proving himself against a field with national depth.

Enough of the debate.  Durability counts big-time in the modern Thoroughbred game played much too often in short pants.  Lookin at Lucky is far and away the best horse in the 2010 3-year-old crop.

But what does that really mean?  Well, Lookin at Lucky is consistent, professional, tough, talented and game.  What he’s not is great.  Perhaps he isn’t even extremely good.  His sophomore class is struggling merely to be average.

IZOD Haskell runner-up Trappe Shot was too far out of it early when unaggressively ridden from his outside post.  Going nine furlongs versus Grade 1 company, he needs to be in the mix so he can use all his gears and accelerative bursts rather than making one sustained, sapping and grinding run.  The Monmouth effort should toughen him up, but the next race will be key to Trappe Shot’s development.  By passing the Travers, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin would give him at least six weeks to recover and every chance to bounce forward.  If the Tapit colt does so first contest back, he truly has a chance to reach his full potential – as long as he stays at less than a mile and a quarter.

IZOD Haskell third-finishing First Dude underperformed.  Yes, he was pressured while pinned to a dullish rail.  But he yet again had great difficulty handling a tight second turn and dropped back virtually out of the race despite heavy urging.  First Dude’s coming back on again, while still on the tougher inside going, to pass Super Saver was a testament to his talent, class, heart and preference for straightaways.  Maybe he only should run at spacious Belmont.  I think First Dude has much more to give and possesses an upset shot in any fall New York Grade I that doesn’t have Quality Road competing in it.   

For the first time, I got to be involved with the IZOD Haskell press conference.  That means I got to talk to trainers Dale Romans and Bob Baffert on the phone.  That means I got to go to the backside in the mornings to see First Dude, etc.  And that means I got to write a lot of the press releases that went out this week.  For just some run-of-the-mill racing fan who happens to work at a track, that’s a pretty big deal!!

Nerd alert!  Saturday night – Haskell Eve – is one of my favorite nights of the year.  A nice dinner, a Daily Racing Form, race replays on 4njbets.com, some music, and Matrix Revolutions in the background.  To me, that’s a pretty fun night!  N-E-R….

Another one of my favorite parts of the year is Haskell morning.  Getting to the track at 8 am, setting things up in shorts and a t-shirt before changing to the uniform, just feeling the buzz that pretty soon something special is going to happen.  Haskell morning always feels to me like the morning of a big game.  The excitement is palpable and everyone is ready to put on a show.  I DO NOT like to wake up early, but I was up at 7 am and at the track by 8 am today, just to take everything in.

And then there is Haskell Day.  I want to let everything soak in a little bit and talk about it in more detail on Thursday, but just off the top of my head – Lookin at Lucky is really, really good.  That was one heck of an impressive Haskell performance.  In Race 6 on Haskell Day, a first-time starter from trainer Christophe Clement was insanely impressive.  Erin Rose looked like he was riding in the Bat Mobile around the far turn and demolished the maiden field in hand.  Keep both eyes on this one in the future.

Lastly, Haskell Day is great because it’s our chance to show off here at Monmouth Park – not only the employees, but the fans.  It was really great to see everyone – both friends and co-workers alike – dressed up, looking unbelievable and having a great time.  (Now let’s just hope they all read this to get the compliment.)   

Brad Thomas’ Trip Notes 

July 30 

Race 1 – Hula Party rallied against pace and grain in her debut.  She has the style, stride and pedigree to enjoy two turns.

Race 8 – No Mo Magic was hung too wide and rated too much in her second career turf start.  A better post would allow for more aggressive handling.

Race 11 – Silver Smoke was pace-stung and hard-used against a double bias while also overmatched.  He might be capable of stretching out in his current form.

July 31 

Race 9 – Note seven-pound apprentice jockey Ramon Moya’s cool, calm and patient handling on Red Elephant.  The two were pocketed in traffic much of the way, but didn’t panic.  Even when clear, Moya allowed the gelding to settle into full stride before asking for the winning rally.  Contrast that to the wildly premature move (dictated somewhat by post position) made by Drink At Last Call and his veteran rider.  Moya is superb from off-the-pace for such an inexperienced jockey.

Race 12 – Scavezzuto continued his steady improvement with blinkers back on.  The colt was full of run most of the way, but was simply forced to make too many moves.  He needs nurturing handling.

1)Lookin at Lucky – Bob Baffert was definitely the most animated trainer we talked to during Thursday’s press conference – and it wasn’t exactly a good animated.  Perhaps it’s his name, but Lookin at Lucky seems like he just can’t catch a break – and that continued today as he drew the IZOD Haskell rail.  Whether it’s drawing post 1 or mid-race traffic issues, the reigning 2-year-old champ does seem a little snake bit.  HANDICAPPING:  He may have the worst luck, but I think Lookin at Lucky is the best horse in the IZOD Haskell.  Assuming no traffic issues – which isn’t a given from the one hole – I make LAL strictly the one to beat and he’ll be atop my tickets.

2)Afleet Again – Trainer “Butch” Reid downplayed it, jockey Joe Bravo did not, but it has to be at least a moderately big deal that this guy is the only horse stabled at Monmouth Park.  Bravo made the point at the press conference Thursday – if you were running on Sunday, would you rather wake up at 3 am, and ride south from Saratoga (including a trip on the NJ Turnpike), or would you rather roll out of your own bed in the morning and go through a normal pre-race routine?  HANDICAPPING: Afleet Again is taking a big step up in class, but has Monmouth Park’s leading rider Joe Bravo and the home-field advantage.  Will that be enough to win?  I don’t think so.  But it could be enough to hit the board at a big price.

3)Ice Box – According to trainer Nick Zito, the tough-luck Derby runner-up looks absolutely phenomenal.  Zito said in the days following the Belmont Stakes that Ice Box’s bad showing could be chalked up to the heat.  In his final workout on Monday, Ice Box finished ahead of workmate Cool Coal Man, who is a multiple stakes winner and is entered on the Haskell undercard.  HANDICAPPING:  You don’t see many horses win from last in the Haskell, and with that in mind, I hadn’t given Ice Box too much consideration under earlier this week when I read he out-worked “The Coal Man.”  Zito sounded extremely pleased with how the horse looks (which has to be a positive sign), and he was probably the best horse in the Derby, so who knows.  Probably won’t be on the ticket, but definitely wouldn’t be surprised if he won.

4)First Dude – I talked to trainer Dale Romans earlier this week and the quote was, “He was doing great going into the Belmont, and he’s doing just as well heading into this race.”  The Preakness runner-up had a little bit of bad luck Thursday as he drew just inside Our Dark Knight – the other likely speed horse – but Romans does seem confident.  “To be the best, you have to beat the best,” he said.  HANDICAPPING:  Of all the horses in this year’s IZOD Haskell, he is the one I most want to see.  Why?  Supposedly, he is enormous!  I think First Dude has a great chance of winning the Haskell with his gutsy, front-running style.  If he goes down, he’ll go down fighting.

5)Our Dark Knight – Trainer Nick Zito also spoke highly of this recent allowance winner, saying he’s definitely an up-and-coming 3-year-old.  He’s never been worse than second in his career, but also has never run against Grade 1-caliber animals.  HANDICAPPING: What a tough race!  Our Dark Knight is 15-1 on the morning line and he actually has a decent shot in this race.  You have to respect anything Nick Zito sends to the gate, especially in big races, but he won’t be a use for me.

6)Super Saver – One thing I’ve learned over the years is to believe Todd Pletcher when he says something in the media.  According to Pletcher, the Kentucky Derby winner has put on weight since the Triple Crown and has been training very well.  In fact, his work two Sunday’s ago, was the best Pletcher has ever seen from this horse.  Those are the types of comments I like to hear coming into a big race.  HANDICAPPING:  All that being said, I’m not going to be using Super Saver in this race.  Unfortunately, you can’t use every horse, and for better or worse, I’m leaving him off my tickets.  If my recent results are any indications, everyone reading this should run to the windows and bet Super Saver.

7)Uptowncharlybrown – Despite being 15-1 on the morning line, there is one person who is extremely confident in Uptowncharlybrown and that is owner Bob Hutt of Fantasy Lane Stable.  Before being sent to McLaughlin’s barn, Uptowncharlybrown did train at Monmouth Park so it won’t be his first taste of the Shore oval.  HANDICAPPING: Can I just pick all eight of them?  I haven’t been around long enough to know all of racing’s history, but other than the Breeders’ Cup, this might be the toughest handicapping race I’ve ever seen.  I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see Uptowncharlybrown hit the board.

8)   Trappe Shot – Over the past couple weeks, I don’t think I’ve heard a more confident trainer than Kiaran McLaughlin talking about Trappe Shot.  He was confident going into the Long Branch, confident during the race, and very confident after the race and leading upto the IZOD Haskell.  HANDICAPPING: For me, listening to your gut instinct is a big part of handicapping.  During and after the Long Branch, I think sensed an enormous confidence from trainer Kiaran McLaughlin toward Trappe Shot.  He’s never faced this deep of a field, but he’ll be my second choice behind Mr. [Un]Lucky.  

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories

This season’s 3-year-old Thoroughbred crop feels disrespected.  Nobody gets great press exaltation or currently is regarded as a serious Breeders’ Cup Classic candidate.  Maybe the IZOD Haskell will change all of that.  So, let’s play What’s My Whine?

The panelists are:

• A)Afleet Again
• B)First Dude
• C)Ice Box
• D)Lookin at Lucky
• E)Our Dark Knight
• F)Super Saver
• G)Trappe Shot
• H)Uptowncharlybrown

The whines are:

1 – I’m game and versatile and getting better with every race.  I live in Saratoga Springs, but I really like Monmouth.  I’m not afraid of the bigshots.  But something tells me I’m the one who’s going to be mixing it up with them early when they’re fresh and strong.  Then my buddy is going to be charging hard in support when things slow down.  Support.  Yeah.  Support.

2 – Sure, some of my rivals might have more raw talent, scope for improvement, and sexier veneers.  But my mind and personality are in leagues of their own.  I do the little things right and have the mental toughness of a commando.  And hey, it’s not like I need plastic surgery either.  I know I’m not unbeatable, but anyone who does take me will have to run a true, Grade 1 race – something very few of my peers so far have been able to do.

3 – I just love to run.  That song they’ll play before the race is really about me.  Wish the thing was two miles.  But it ain’t.  At one mile and an eighth, I’ll have to behave at the gate and try – even though it’s against my nature – to save some ground and stay straight in the lane.  Yeah, I’ll admit it.  Bad behavior has cost me races.  But I’m better than people think I am and I will be passing some expended hotshots in the homestretch money run.

4 – I’ve been treated like I’m special for my entire racing life and as a result some folks think I’m a little soft.  But I’ve put on a super show every time this year – just not in the big time.  The locals tried ganging up on me last race.  Pinned me to a dull rail.  Ha!  How dare they challenge me with their inferior skills!  I showed ‘em.  Won for fun and could have opened up even more.  Now’s my time.  The naysayers will have eggs dripping down their face on Sunday!

5 – I’m bigger and better-looking than my namesake, but maybe not as versatile.  I don’t turn well or focus when dirt is getting kicked in my face – like you would!? – but put me on the lead or pressing the pace on the outside and I’m as tough and tenacious as a Bostonian in Mohawk garb.  Question is, can I get over the top in this party?

6 – I mean, I just don’t know what happened last time.  I was galloping smoothly along and – whoosh!  Lucky no one got hit.  Anyway, now I’m refreshed and looking to develop a consistent running style.  Mid-pack grinder sounds about right and the pace scenario could play to my strength.  And remember, I’ve played with Trappe Shot on many a morning.  I know I can run with him!

7 – I’m really not sure why I’m coming to Jersey.  But I just follow orders.  I love roomier tracks and longer stretches.  But I also adore pace meltdowns and maybe they’ll be more speed here than in the Jim Dandy.  Now don’t get me wrong, I want my bud to run well at Saratoga, but this is a competition for the 3-year-old championship.  I gotta trust my people.  They tell me the Shore’s been kinder than usual to my style.  Sure hope so – keep the tractors in the barn!

8 – I like my rest.  Easy trips are great.  Shiny, sealed surfaces are my rose garden.  So what!  I’m athletic, adaptable, and pretty darn good on just about any day.  And nine furlongs, I’ll let you in on a little secret, truly is my best game on a clear afternoon.  And, even better, I’m really, really suited by the tight contours of Monmouth Park.  Just hope I’m not so fresh that I pull and tug instead of relaxing and rating!

Match up the panelists with their whines and win valuable prizes of handicapping information and insight.  And, by Sunday evening, respect for someone will materialize in the form of a big check and a leg up on a championship.

Ex-Monmouth Park employee and current TVG talent Matt Carothers made the trip from California this week for Rachel Alexandra’s return and it was great to meet him and see him in action.  Matt is one of the few people I’ve ever met who makes everything he says entertaining.  He could be selling jewelry on QVC and I would watch because of his personality.  Not to mention, he is an extremely good handicapper.  Those of you who saw Brad Thomas’ “Shades Off” videos on Saturday and Sunday morning could probably imagine, but not laughing out loud (for the most part) while holding the camera for those segments was one of the hardest things I’ve ever had to do.  Here’s hoping Mr. Carothers is back at Monmouth Park very soon.

As for Rachel Alexandra, her Lady’s Secret win was a “TCB” kind of effort – “takin’ care of business.”  Did I honestly think she would win by more?  Yes.  But it wasn’t like she was tooth and nail to get her nose down on the wire.  Not that I expected them to say anything different, but the connections after the race were very happy with Rachel’s effort.  I talked to jockey Calvin Borel, who said “Rachel is back.”  I don’t think it’s fair to say that Rachel is back to her dominant 2009 form, but it was nice to see her in the winner’s circle again – and judging from the ovation, the crowd surely enjoyed her return.      

This upcoming week should also be a doozy as we’re getting close to a little race we here at Monmouth Park like to call the IZOD Haskell.  With a field likely to include Kentucky Derby 1-2 finishers Super Saver and Ice Box AND Preakness 1-2 finishers Lookin at Lucky and First Dude AND the up-and-coming Trappe Shot, this is setting up to be one heck of a race.  By the time Haskell Day roles around, I will have worked 12 straight days, but I have a feeling it’s going to be worth it!!

Brad and I will return on Thursday with more Haskell happenings.  We should have some pretty good info as Thursday is the Haskell Press Conference.  As always, please feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts on Rachel’s performance and anything related to the upcoming IZOD Haskell.  

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Rachel Alexandra was professional in her Lady’s Secret victory, but hardly spectacular.  Giving only five pounds to a runner-up she would have been conceding at least 15 pounds to if the race was an old-school handicap, the camp lacked her A+ Game turn-of-foot.  Frankly, I was expecting just a bit more.  She reminded me of Spectacular Bid’s win in the Iselin at the tail of his career.  Runner-up Queen Martha obviously is a filly of graded quality with future options on both dirt and turf.  Third-finishing Ask The Moon wan her heart out while out-classed, but showed she truly can rate and also is back in peak form.

The Haskell Invitational originated as a handicap and many years was the first race ever contested by top members of a 3-year-old crop under such conditions.  Here are my theoretical weights for 2010’s edition:

Lookin at Lucky            123

Super Saver                121

Ice Box                      120

Trappe Shot                120     

First Dude                   119

Afleet Again                 116

Our Dark Knight            115

Uptowncharlybrown       114

Scale weight is 126, so top-weight Lookin at Lucky’s substantially below par assignment, and the tight-spread among the top five, is indicative of the 2010 3-year-old crop’s present standing against past generations.

Trip Notes 

July 23 

Race 8 – Beautiful Life finally improved 4^th time out in 2010 despite backstretch traffic and racing on a dull rail.  She finished decently, too, despite being a better fit going a shorter, one-mile distance.

Race 10 – Beyondallboundrys took the Dearly Precious Stakes with a sharp display of light-footedness, high cruising speed, and multiple runs.  Her pedigree says two turns and she likely has graded ability going a middle distance.

July 24 

Race 9 – Quepos made a couple moves despite post and traffic issues.  Could be best stretching back out at this stage of his career.

Race 9 – Ready to Dazzle was run off his feet early while stepping way up in class and would be well-suited by a drop to combination conditioned claiming company.  Even overmatched here, he managed to finish with an honest late run. 

Race 10 – Led Advantage was rank, unruly, and on the worst part of the track off the stretch-out, yet still held amazingly well in the stretch.  She needs to get off the rail.

Ask those athletes what it’s like to perform in front of a packed house of adoring fans – what it’s like to look into the stands and see hundreds of signs with their names on them.

It’s a rare athlete who can make an impact on an audience – a rare athlete who can elicit such emotion from a group of people.

Derek Jeter does it every night in the Bronx.  Mark Messier did it for 10 years in front of the Rangers faithful.  And Rachel Alexandra overcame an afternoon thunderstorm and the eventual 3-year-old champion to do it last year on Haskell Day.   

If you had to label a “home track” for superstar filly and Reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, it would probably be Churchill Downs – the site of her 20 ¼-length Kentucky Oaks triumph last season. 

But it’s hard to envision a bigger home track advantage or a more thunderous ovation than the one given to Rachel last year on Haskell Day.

Signs read, “I run like a girl…try to keep up.”  T-shirts read, “Girls rule, guys drool.  Go Rachel.”

The crowd that attended the 2009 Haskell came to cheer on royalty.  Rachel Alexandra had won three consecutive Grade 1 races, including becoming the first filly in over 80 years to win the Preakness. 

Maybe it was the fact that she beat the Kentucky Derby winner on national television.  Maybe it was the filly versus the boys angle.  Maybe it was charismatic jockey Calvin Borel. 

Whatever it was, the Steve Asmussen-trained filly packed Monmouth Park with racing fans and Rachel fans alike.

There were lines for “Run Like a Girl” t-shirts.  After every race, there were people asking Borel for autographs, which he graciously signed.  And when Rachel won the Haskell – soundly defeating eventual Champion 3-Year-Old Summer Bird – the crowd reaction was simply electrifying. 

The second Rachel crossed the wire, she became a Haskell legend.  She joined Hall of Fame member Serena’s Song as the only fillies to win Monmouth’s biggest race.  And the Monmouth Park fans were sure to convey their gratitude.

Spurred on by an exhilarated Borel, the loyal Monmouth Park fans – not at all hampered by earlier torrential downpours – serenaded Rachel Alexandra into the winner’s circle with a heroine’s welcome. 

Saturday, Rachel Alexandra returns to Monmouth Park for the $400,000 Lady’s Secret Stakes.  She returns a Haskell Champion and a Horse of the Year.    

There will inevitably be catchy t-shirts and flashy signs.  There will be autograph seekers and picture requesters.  There might even be a celebrity or two.

Maybe it’s because Rachel’s a filly.  Maybe it’s her personable jockey.

Or maybe Rachel Alexandra is one of those rare athletes who can impact an audience – an athlete who can entertain, energize and inspire all at the same time.

One thing Monmouth Park fans know for sure: she’s back.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

While the Haskell Invitational has been renowned for its importance in helping to define the 3-year-old crop since its first running in 1968, its history also provides hard examples of the evolution of handicapping theory.

In 1981, the notion of track bias was just beginning to creep into mainstream horseplaying.  The Haskell had a 6-horse field, but the race really boiled down to a battle between 1980 Juvenile champion Lord Avie, a true stretch-runner, and up-and-coming speedster Five Star Flight, who figured to make a clear early lead and then pray for the wire.

After morning training had ended and the gates were opened that August day, the dirt surface was manicured with far greater intensity than for a normal racing card.  The tractors just went around and around.  Later in the day, the competitive action verified any speculation the course was super speed-favoring.  If you believed in biases, Five Star Flight simply could not lose.  He didn’t – as an 8/5 overlay in essentially a two-horse race.

In 1982, late-developing Midwesterner Wavering Monarch shipped in to challenge established East Coast stars Aloma’s Ruler and Linkage, who had finished first and second respectively in the Preakness.  A few years earlier, his one-mile workout in something like 1:35 and change notwithstanding, Wavering Monarch would have been dismissed at 4-1 or 5-1 in the face of such name-brand recognition.

But the age of speed figures had arrived and enough people now used them to make the colt a close, 5-2 third choice on the basis of his big numbers versus average fields.  Wavering Monarch was monstrous in overcoming a tepid pace and very wide trip to wear down Aloma’s Ruler and jockey Angel Cordero, Jr.

By 1985, historical trends were becoming popular tools for handicapping human sports, but not so much horse racing.  That soon would change.

In 1974, Little Current ran in the Haskell off a 56-day layoff following his Belmont Stakes score.  He lost (2^nd) at even-money.

In 1983, Slew O’ Gold competed in the Haskell off a 49-day respite following his second-place finish in the Belmont.  He finished 6^th at even-money.

This was an era in which recency was a positive and top trainers honed their horses to a sharp point through intense racing action.  Brief layoffs were something that had to be overcame, rather than being the building-up advantage they are to today’s super trainers.  

In 1983, old-school conditioner Sonny Hine’s Bet Big raced at Bowie two weeks before the Haskell and finished second at 55-1, by a diminishing neck, to Preakness winner Deputed Testamony.

In 1985, Spend a Buck was the .70-1 Haskell favorite despite a 61-day layoff following his gut-wrenching Jersey Derby triumph. The second longest shot on the board at 35-1 was the Hine-trained Skip Trial, who had last competed two weeks previously at Bowie.  The confluence of two trends yielded a $73 upset.

In 1982, trainer Woody Stephens took the Belmont Stakes with the physically brittle (By 1980’s standards – today he’d be called an iron horse!) Conquistador Cielo a mere five days after the colt romped against older horses in the Metropolitan Mile.  Indeed, running back even top-level horses super quickly was a common practice back in the day.  Many live Belmont Stakes contenders “prepped” in the Met, and the Derby Trial, once upon a time contested on the Monday before the Derby, was routinely used as a final sharpener by Calumet-owned stars.

In the early years of the Haskell, four victories had been running back on 10 days or less of rest.  The last such Haskell champion was 11-1 Wise Times (eight days), who was conditioned by Phil Gleaves – then a young Woody Stephens protégé.  After 1986, no other Haskell winner would ever be returning in 10 days or less.  Ah, modern racing – less apparently isn’t always best.

Word around the press office is that Rachel Alexandra will arrive from Saratoga on Tuesday and school in the Monmouth Park paddock at an undetermined time on Friday.

I had the pleasure of talking to a pair of the nicest horsemen in the industry on Saturday.  In the morning, I asked Calvin Borel all about his upcoming mounts on Rachel Alexandra and Super Saver.  Borel is one of the nicest jockeys I’ve ever talked to – even though it’s a little weird to be called sir at such a young age.  Saturday afternoon I had trainer Patrick Biancone after he took the day’s second stakes race.  Maybe it’s the French accent that adds something to it, but Patrick was one of the nicest people I’ve ever talked to. 

A horse to watch in the future: Check the Label.  This filly won a Grade III stakes at Colonial Saturday in extremely impressive fashion and has a bright future in Grade II or Grade I events.  Keep an eye out. 

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

I was watching a re-broadcast of the British Open on ESPN at about 9:30 last night when one of the categories on the news crawl at the bottom of the screen flashed “Horse.”  My immediate thought was wondering what ESPN-worthy race was run on Saturday.  Nothing came to mind.  Then anxiety hit.  What happened to Rachel Alexandra?  Is Zenyatta okay?  Did someone big die?  Fortunately, all was well.  It had just slipped my mind that a Breeders’ Cup Win & You’re In race had taken place at Philadelphia Park.  The crawl reported that A.U. Miner (who was beaten 8 ¾ lengths at 83-1 five weeks ago in the Grade I Stephen Foster) had won the (ungraded) Greenwood Cup and thus now was Breeders’ Cup eligible (no mention of which Breeders’ Cup race of division. 

Nothing beats the modern media at grasping disinterested newsworthiness, a sense of proportion, and precise context.  There was no mention of a slew of better horses who captured stronger, more important races all across the country yesterday.

Check out jockey Garrett Gomez winning Saturday’s 7^th race with Soda Pop Kid.  The easy control he had slipping the gelding outside and back inside in upper to mid-stretch, and then his wide array of holds, rein crosses, and whipping styles – all delivered in rapid-fire and ultra-smooth fashion – reeked of world class talent and skill.

Trainer Paul Kopaj is low-profile, but highly skilled with all kinds of horses.  His three victories this meet have been with a built-up claimer off a five-week respite, an aggressive (basement) spotted first timer, and a raced-into-peak-form maiden stretch-out.

Trip Notes 

July 16 

3^rd Race – Souma battled tag-team pressure on a dull rail and held better than she had been recently.  An outside draw would help.

6^th Race – Concorde’s Pastry was compromised by impossible outside draws in recent routes and while she appreciated the drop here, the six-furlongs was too short.  A two-turn claimer with a decent post gives her a speed-popping chance.

12^th Race – Masqued Tsaar raced against biases in his last two and here he also sharpened up with an improved pace figure.  He needs a weak field, but he could be ready to stretch back out.

July 17 

6^th Race – First-timer Pishogue was green and in need of schooling, but was able to finish decently after making a couple of bursts.  Overmatched Arise Sir Knight raced gamely, likely moved well forward, and should be toughened up nicely for a return to Colonial.

12^th Race – Hard-used routing (again) Wild Doone gamely passed his pace-involved rivals while well-beaten by the closers.  He’s dangerous with a real class drop.

Famous birthdays on July 16 include comedian Will Ferrell, Michael Flatley (Lord of the Dance), and popcorn-hero Orville Redenbacher.

Songs that reached #1 on July 16 include Bette Davis Eyes (1981), by Kim Carnes; Bye Bye Love (1957), by The Everly Brothers; and Bad, Bad Leroy Brown (1973), by Jim Croce.

With all of those brilliantly-researched nuggets of history notwithstanding, July 16, 2010 is a pretty special day in my life: It’s the 25^th anniversary of something that we’re not going to talk about.  And it’s the fifth anniversary of one of the biggest reasons why I’m at where I’m at today:

On Saturday, July 16, 2005, I turned 20 years old.  Being extremely superstitious, I was really looking forward to that year because the number 20 has always been good to me.  It was my baseball number from the time I was 10 until I graduated high school.  It continues to be my lucky number to this day.  And it was even the number of the plane that single-handedly destroyed the alien spaceship at the end of Independence Day – one of my favorite movies of all time.

I knew something good was going to happen that year.  I just didn’t know it would happen so quickly. 

First the first time ever on a non-Haskell Day, I had advanced plans to spend Saturday, July 16, 2005 at Monmouth Park.  The reason: Hotstufanthensome was running in the Elkwood Stakes.  I had bet on him (purely because of his name) when he won an allowance race on Haskell Day 2004.  I then made a spur-of-the-moment decision to go to the track on June 26, 2005 when I saw his name in the Monmouth Park entries in that morning’s Asbury Park Press.

Following his win on June 26, I tried to find out where Hotstufanthensome was running next – that was the first time I ever did any sort of racing research.  Through a combination of Monmouth Park barn notes and Daily Racing Form articles, I learned that the Elkwood was the expected next target.  Passing on a day of fishing – which is no small feat in the Skirka household – my dad and I decided to instead spend the day at Monmouth Park.  And what a day it turned out to be. 

I vividly remember standing by the paddock waiting for Hotstufanthensome to come into the saddling area.  At that point in time, I wasn’t the most knowledgeable person in the world about racing – in fact, far from it.  But what I saw next remains to this day one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen. 

Hotstufanthensome entered the walking ring with the swagger of Muhammad Ali before a big fight.  He wasn’t “on his toes,” he was dancing.  Just by looking at him and the way he was acting, I knew he was going to win.  What happened next, didn’t help to change my opinion.

Hotstufanthensome was saddled and return to parade around the walking ring while his trainer Norman Pointer gave directions to jockey Rajiv Maragh.  As the horses waited to be mounted, Pointer’s assistant walked to the rail of the walking ring – I’m assuming to one of his friends – pointed to Hotstufanthensome, and actually said the phrase, “Bet on this horse.”  It was like I was watching some sort of bad Disney movie.  Here I am, at the track for the first “real” time – all for one specific horse – and that horse comes in looking like synch winner with assistant trainers begging friends to go to the windows.  I was planning on betting anyway, but after witnessing those turn of events, I pulled an extra ten out of my wallet, and off we went to watch the race.

I didn’t know it when I went home that night and had a piece of ice cream cake, or even a month later, but July 16, 2005 was a pretty important date in my life.  I think it was the first time that I realized horse racing is more than just beautiful animals running in circles.  I realized that – just like baseball, football, etc. – horse racing is filled with athletes who I could follow closely and become a fan of.  Just like I cheered for Warrick Dunn, Grant Hill and Mike Mussina in their respective sports, I started cheering for Hotstufanthensome.

In the beginning, I cheered for Hotstuf because of his name.  But eventually I fell in love – not because he won me money, but because I saw in him some of the things that I liked most about myself.  Despite his name, Hotstufanthensome wasn’t the prettiest horse stabled at Monmouth Park.  He wasn’t bulging with muscles.  And he didn’t sell for $1 million at auction.  But he was blue-collar through and through.  He did give absolutely everything he had every single time.  And he hated to lose.  I remember a trainer once telling me that after a narrow loss, Hotstuf returned to his barn kicking and squealing because he didn’t get his picture taken after the race.  Let’s just say I can relate to that.       

As has been well-documented on this blog, my passion for Hotstufanthensome eventually transformed into a passion for the entire sport of horse racing.  Tomorrow, exactly five years after that historic day, I’ll be working at Monmouth Park Racetrack during a twilight Friday card of the $50 million Elite Summer Meet – who woulda thunk it?  As for Hotstufanthensome, he was retired earlier this year and is enjoying life on a farm somewhere.  He never even knew I existed, but I owe so much that I have to him.  

On Friday, July 16, 2010, I’ll celebrate a couple things, most important being Hotstufanthensome’s win in the 2005 Elkwood Stakes.  It was the second time I had ever been to Monmouth Park on a non-Haskell Day.  It was probably one of the biggest reasons why I am where I am today.  And it was one of the best birthday presents I’ve ever gotten.

Brad Thomas’ Why I Like Horse Racing Part III 

One of the beauties of horse racing is that things have a way of evening out.  You just have to hang around long enough to give the worm a chance to turn.

Years ago, I would take a back staircase up to the top floor of a racetrack after watching the horses in the paddock before each race.  Every once in a while, I would cross paths with the bugler as he was going out to or returning from playing the call to post.

He’d ask who I liked.  I would give him the winner.  EVERY SINGLE TIME!  At 50-1.  At 5-1.  At 20-1.  At 2-1.  Sometimes the double.  At other times the exacta.  It didn’t matter if I bet it myself or passed the race, whatever I told him was golden.

The guy never said thank you.  Never bought me a ticket.  Never sent me a fruit basket for Christmas.  Oh, but when he’d see me turning the corner, he would unconsciously genuflect.  But then, like any self-respecting racetracker, he’d catch himself and merely drool with anticipation and shake with greed.

I knew another track worker.  The nicest guy in the world.  We’d buy each other coffee and exchange small favors.  I really liked him.  But I couldn’t give him a winner if both our lives depended on it.  It was absolutely brutal.  Sometimes the horses managed to finish the race.  Sometimes they didn’t.  I apologized profusely and repeatedly.  I spent extra time handicapping and went out of my way to find him when I thought I had something good.  It just didn’t matter.  Any other horse first, my pick for him – nowhere!

The fellow bore the barren burden like a prince.  He never complained.  Never mocked me.  Never ran away when he saw me.  Indeed, he always was uncommonly pleasant.  What a great guy.

Then one day he told me he was leaving for a new job.  We reminisced a bit and I again apologized for my pitiful picks.  He chuckled a little, smiled sweetly, and gave me a slight wink.

“Ah, don’t sweat it,” he soothed.  “I’m best friends with the bugler.”

A lot has already been said – and I’m sure will continue to be said – about Saturday’s Long Branch Stakes winner Trappe Shot.  I figured I might as well add my two cents.  After watching the race live, seeing trainer Kiaran McLaughlin’s reactions both during and after the race, and watching the replay, I offer this analysis:

I think no matter the outcome of the Long Branch, Trappe Shot was going to run in the IZOD Haskell.  After being able to sit back and analyze Saturday’s happenings, I think McLaughlin has known all along that Trappe Shot is a serious animal.  I base this on his very scientific in-race body language and extremely confident post-race quotes.  I had half an eye on McLaughlin throughout the entire running of the Long Branch and he was the exact opposite of most trainers who win stakes races.  He wasn’t standing up banging his program; he was sitting close to the television watching every move Trappe Shot made.  And he was on his way to the winner’s circle before Trappe Shot even hit the wire.  After the race, McLaughlin said if it wasn’t for some early physical issues, Trappe Shot would have been a major Kentucky Derby contender.  When I watched the replay of the Long Branch, it seemed to me that jockey Alan Garcia gave Trappe Shot an absolutely perfect “schooling” ride.  Garcia kept Trappe Shot behind horses, held him inside of rivals instead of opening up, and left something in the tank in the stretch.  He’s likely to take a lot of money in the IZOD Haskell, but Trappe Shot has a serious chance to upset Super Saver, First Dude, Lookin at Lucky and the rest of the field come August 1.

It seemed like the whole world was on edge Thursday night as Lebron James kidnapped ESPN to make his worldly-important announcement about playing for the Miami Heat.  While there’s no arguing that James is one of the three most talented players in the NBA, I will argue that Saturday’s news from Miami could have more of an impact on them winning an NBA title: free agent Derek Fisher was in town to meet with Heat management.  Fisher is the prototypical blue-collar, winning player and his addition to Miami would guarantee an NBA title.  I honestly think the starting five of Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Derek Fisher and Brian Skirka could win a championship.   

Does anyone out there have any advice about how to get out of a handicapping slump?  It’s been a rough couple weeks for the Skirka selections, culminating with yesterday’s failed Pick 4 attempt at Calder, where I got knocked out by D’Funnybone losing at odds of 1-9.  You know it’s going bad when you can’t even rest assured singling a 1-9 shot in a four-horse field.  I’ve tried using different betting machines, I’ve tried watching the races on different TVs, and I’ve even tried a necklace made entirely of garlic.  I’m running out of ideas on how to actually cash a ticket!

After a recent Mets game, I left the SNY post-game show on in the background as I worked on the computer.  The question posed by the host was “which Mets pitcher do you have the most confidence in right now?”  Everyone who answered said either Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey or Jon Niese.  Excuse me, but when did the Mets get rid of Johan Santana?  The short sidedness of the media drives me absolutely insane.  I don’t care if Santana loses his next 20 starts – he is far and away the Mets ace and one of the top 5 pitchers in the National League. 

I missed the Grade I Man o’War yesterday when it was run live, but tuned in just in time to see Gio Ponti in the winner’s circle.  When I got home, I watched the replay and was extremely impressed with what I saw.  Last behind absolutely dawdling fractions, Gio Ponti eased out in the stretch and exploded past the Naipal Chatterpaul-trained frontrunner with minimal encouragement.  (I knew I would get Naipal Chatterpaul into a blog at some point!!)  Make no mistake, despite only one win in his last six starts, Gio Ponti is BY FAR the best American-based turf horse in training right now.

If you’re a regular reader of the Monmouth Park blog, you’ve noticed I’ve changed things up a little bit the last couple of weeks.  I personally enjoy the shorter, hodgepodge blogs where I can touch on some different material.  However, I want this blog to be what YOU want to read, so please let me know if you don’t like the new style and would prefer if I return to more hardcore handicapping.  Brad and I have noticed a drop in the amount of comments we’ve been receiving recently, too.  We’d love to hear from you guys about any and all topics!!  I think the back and forth makes it more fun for all involved.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

It’s not only the bountiful betting product that’s different at Monmouth Park this year, it’s the people wagering on it as well.  When you combine multiple viable options in a given race with simulcast and account bettors unfamiliar with the circuit, the number of potential overlays increases exponentially.  There’s no telling where or when they might appear, but a player should be prepared and aware.

Take, for example, the card of July 9.  In the 1^st race, the strong 2.30-1 second choice was a first-time starter trained by J. Willard Thompson, who wins with a debut horse about once every three years.  His Porchini Prince ran well, but was beaten a neck by Saratoga Louie, the 4.80-1 third choice.  The latter was the only experienced member of the 2-year-old New Jersey-bred field and was dropping from open company – which was the exact pattern of the 7-1 filly winner of this state-bred race’s counterpart on July 2.  Additionally, Saratoga Louie was working in sharply improved fashion, probably with his new blinkers, and clearly was listed in the short comments of the past performances as having raced on the rail at a time early in the meet when the inside was dull virtually every day.  Basic Handicapping 101 rules do apply even in baby races full of firsters!

In Race 3, Very Sweet deserved to be the heavy favorite, but Classofsixtythree should have been second choice and/or no more than 7-2.  Instead, she was the 6.60-1 third choice.  Debonair Darling, the 3.80-1 second choice, is a speed filly who would have had to duel and put away the .70-1 fave and also hold off the closers in order to win.  Conversely, Classofsixtythree is a closer who figured to benefit from two sharp rivals sharing a style that could lead to their mutual destruction.  Styles, and how they interact with each other, are key in determining what prices horses truly are worth!

In Race 5, A Unique Treasure, a three-time winner at the highly specialized conditions of five furlongs on turf, was the 5.30-1 fourth choice.  The 3.70-1 second choice was Pointing North, who never even had raced before at five furlongs on turf much less ever had won at it.  Experience competing in such a unique contest almost always trumps perceived class on this circuit!

Potential Stakes Horses to Watch

Simmstown (Churchill, June 26, Race 5) showed boundless reserves of energy while fighting through repeated episodes of race traffic and personal inexperience.  Will really get a chance to shine going long later in the year.

Z Appeal (Churchill, July 2, Race 5) won’t be running for a claiming tag anytime soon after taking dirt, accelerating like a motorcycle, and running through the wire in his debut.  Moves like a turf horse and has much sneaky grass in his pedigree.

Wickedly Perfect (Hollywood, June 27, Race 2) has an unlikely pedigree for one who showed such speed going five furlongs in her debut.  She moves with uncommon fluidity for a horse so quick and is heads and shoulders the best synthetic filly prospect I’ve seen so far this year in California.

Trappe Shot (Monmouth Park, July 10, Race 11, the Long Branch Stakes) was able to continue his schooling, out-gear a very talented albeit inexperienced Southern Ridge, and still have a burst (or, more likely, two) left to pull away from well-seasoned Nacho Friend.  Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin’s ultra-patient handling was validated by a colt now possessing a huge chance in the Grade I IZOD Haskell Invitational!

First off, and obviously most importantly, why are “Lebron,” “James,” and “King” the three most spoken words in all of news this week?  When he finally makes a decision (I guess that would be Thursday at 9 pm) then it will be news.  Does ESPN really have to have a reporter in every possible landing place for the “King?”  (And by the way, Lebron is obviously a great player, but shouldn’t you have to win, I don’t know, at least a game in the NBA Finals to earn that nickname?  If Lebron is the King, what is two-time NBA Champion Adam Morrison?  Czar Morrison?)  How many “experts” can sports news shows put on to guess where Lebron will end up?  That’s really must-not watch television – people offering their opinions on what Lebron James is thinking!!  Really!?!?  I’d rather watch qualifying for the Nathan’s hot dog eating contest than those weenies.

On Tuesday, I went out fishing on my favorite party boat out of Point Pleasant for the first time this year.  It was at least 100 degrees and the combination of sweat, clam juice, and conger eel slime (that’s the real winner right there) made for a very slippery afternoon.  But one thing I didn’t mind was the heat.  I’ll admit it was very hot – but would you prefer it was 38 degrees, raining, and dark at 4:18 pm.  I’ll take the heat over the winter any day.

I was a little disappointed to look at the field for the Grade I Man o’War Stakes at Belmont on Saturday.  Gio Ponti is on the morning line at 1-2 – that .5 to 1.  It’s a shame that there aren’t enough solid turf horses around right now to spice up the division’s top races.  I miss the Einstein’s, English Channel’s and even Presious Passion’s of the world.  With all due respect to his seven competitors, but as soon as Gio Ponti breaks cleanly from the gate, that race is pretty much over.

Don’t blame the heat on Friday if you go online at 1:10 pm to check the results of Monmouth’s first race and you don’t see anything.  The twilight racing experiment begins tomorrow at Monmouth Park.  First race 2:10 pm.

Pretty close to every week, I find a new favorite song.  This week’s tune is “Misery” by Maroon 5.  One word: wow.

I was told I could make it official today.  The giveaway for Rachel Alexandra’s return to Monmouth Park will be a T-shirt. 

If you, or anyone you know, are from the Seattle area, have them turn on the Emerald Downs Fox Sports Radio show on Saturday morning around 11 am eastern.  A certain Monmouth Park Blogging “celebrity” may or may not be making an appearance (well, you won’t see me, but you’ll hear me) to talk about the day’s Pick 5 sequence and stakes action.  Should be fun. 

Pretty much a lock to be mentioned on the radio show is Battlefield morning line favorite Banrock.  He’s one of my favorite horses, and I’m looking forward to seeing him again this weekend.

Either before or after the Battlefield, I need to find Banrock’s trainer Tom Bush to see if he is wearing a cape and/or utility belt.  Last weekend, I said hello to Bush in the paddock before the Salvator Mile.  I then walked directly to the administration building where who other than Tom Bush was walking out the door.  How did that happen?  Tom Bush may in fact be Batman!!

Life lesson/cliché of the week:  you only live once.  Unless you’re a character from ABC’s Flashforward, none of us know how long we have left.  Make sure you live life to the fullest, do what you want to do, and don’t get sucked in to having other people waste your time.  Sometimes you have to cut certain things or certain people loose and focus on what makes your life more enjoyable.  Some things or people just aren’t worth wasting your time with.  Sometimes it takes a little while to realize you should pull the cord, but when you do, yank it like you’re starting a mower and spend more time with the things or people that make you happy.  All of our time is too precious to be wasted on minutia.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Trip Notes 

July 2 

Race 2 – Go Perfect was much improved, finished decently, and pulled up well.  He’ll be rounding to form as the conditioned claiming fields thin.

Race 3 – Bestcasescenario, a first-time starting juvenile, was slow to settle, but showed good acceleration when middle-moving.

Race 7 – Jersey-bred, 2-year-old firster Mo Sunny Day showed promise on a dull rail for a barn lethal when dropping to maiden claimers.

July 3 

Race 2 – Dahliatrickdecat was very green in her debut, but displayed real ability for her low-profile outfit.

Race 5 – Sandinershoes, surprisingly nimble for a mare of her size, can both accelerate mid-race and finish well.  She can develop into a top New Jersey-bred.

Race 8 – Fore Pals made multiple moves and still finished decently in his needed last when second off a long layoff.

Race 9 – Cactus Charlie prematurely middle-moved wide into the fastest part of the pace behind two stakes quality rivals.

Race 11 – Gone Astray pulverized the field at a mile distance well short of his best and should develop into a Grade I force at nine furlongs or more.

July 4 

Race 2 – New claim Backbackgone finished vigorously going too short and should fit well on the drop and/or stretch.

Race 6 – Somalia had no chance given her trip and the lack of pace.  An additional furlong would be a big help.

Race 6 – Firster Desert Witch had a lot of run and showed grit fighting through multiple adverse situations. 

Race 10 – Mystic Miracle had no room while full of run in deep stretch, but continued her improvement.

July 5 

Race 3 – National Kid might have had an easy trip, but he was playing around all race and moves super fluidly.  He has Grade II potential, or higher, on firm ground.

Race 6 – Vengeful Wildcat showed athleticism, quickness, stamina and a relatively-lengthy stride.  Dead on the board at 20-1 for a barn that normally is well-bet, he has tons of room to improve – especially if he learns to turn a tad better.  Legit futures factor for long, one-turn Belmont races.

Race 6 – Meistersinger was green, but good-finishing in his debut and wants two turns – like his dam. 

Race 10 – Erstwhile grinder Fantistico Roberto sure learned to quicken second-time blinkers and first-time stretching to nine furlongs!

Did You See of Hear That? 

In the 3^rd race on July 3, jockey Elvis Trujillo and 9-1 Destinedtobemine – despite breaking a bit slowly – beating Eibar Coa and 1.10-1 favorite Peace Talker to prime, pace-pressing position just off the flank of a 24-1 early leader?  The former has a perfect trip while the latter was hung wide to out-of-the-trifecta oblivion.

In the 4^th race on July 4, jockey John Velazquez – knowing he had a long run to the first turn – coolly allowing slow-breaking Austintatious to creep up into super striking position without hard use or excessive ground loss?  Velazquez also smoothly settled his fresh mount on the backstretch when the classy horse threatened to get rank.

In the 5^th race on July 4, jockey Roberto Alvarado using a strong combination of right-handed whipping, left-handed striking, reins crossing, and hand urging to cajole weakening Our Eponene into holding on for a dead-heat victory?  Alvarado always has been a hugely underrated finisher who wins much more than his fair share of photos.  (Jose Lezcano was on the co-winner.)

In the 11^th race on July 4, announcer Larry Collmus calling Machismo the winner just past the sixteenth pole?  Runner-up closer Lone Cypress still appeared to have momentum and at least a 40% chance (seemingly!) of getting up at that point.  A mortal announcer would not have had the machismo to make that call.  No way!

In the 12^th race on July 4, Hunters Seacret completely blowing the first turn, being hung absurdly wide throughout, and only getting beaten 23 ½ lengths?  It would be fun to see how well she can route if able to stay near, just near, the rail!

Sunday’s BetFair/TVG United Nations featured one of the most impressive closing kicks I have seen since I’ve worked at Monmouth Park.  Having a rooting interest in Straight Story, I actually thought I had a chance in mid-stretch of the U.N., but eventual winner Chinchon absolutely Midnight Luted (that’s the verb for power housed – see the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Sprint) past the field in a matter of strides.  That was one impressive performance from a horse that should have a serious say in the Breeders’ Cup Turf if his connections choose that path.

We’re less than three weeks out from July 24, which means the return of last year’s Haskell winner and reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra is right around the corner.  It’s really been an unbelievable year so far at Monmouth Park with how well the Elite Summer Meet has gone – and Rachel’s approaching appearance just makes it that much better.  I can’t wait to see a packed house and people with signs saluting the [East Coast] “Queen of Racing.”  It’s really something to witness when a horse has the ability and appeal to bring fans to the track.

Last weekend, maiden winner Justaroundmight was my selection in the Grade III Boiling Springs Stakes.  She was bottled up in traffic pretty much from her opening stride and was never able to shake free.  This Sunday, Dover Crescent – second to Justaroundmidnight in her maiden score – came back to break her maiden at second asking.  Look for Ms. Midnight to be a major player in the Filly and Mare Turf Division in the future.

Lastly, I just wanted to say a word about one of my favorite horses Trust or Bust.  As someone who has been following the races at Charles Town for a little over a year now, Trust or Bust had grown to be my favorite horse at the little West Virginia establishment.  He was a 4 1/2-furlong specialist - kind of the Charles Town version of Joey P.  He always gave his all, never backed down from a fight, and if he went down, he went down fighting.  He'll always be my first "Charles Town" horse and I'm really going to miss him!!

Brad Thomas’ Why I Like Horse Racing – Part II 

Horse racing is a game in which nothing, and nobody, is what it or they seem.

The variables are vast and subject to interpretation and the human players come from every social strata and walk of life.  Regardless, however, and with a nod to Independence Day, sheer fortune and the relentlessness of the parimutuel system render equal those not necessarily created so.

At least half of modern day horse training seems to be public relations.  Years ago, I knew a career assistant, now deceased, whose name never was printed in any program, but who was as good a hands-on horseman as you’ll ever find.  He just didn’t have the personality to be the frontman.  He told the truth.  All the time.  Frankly, hilariously, and wonderfully profanely.

One of his first jobs was with a famous trainer who got jealous and defensive when a foresighted owner began to see through the rough veneer and recognized the talent, intuition and skill of the young assistant.  The position was terminated.

The spurned aide seethed and stewed for a decade as his former boss raked in the money and accolades while his own career plodded in place.  But then something happened.  The superstar trainer began to lose a number of horses through the claim box who suddenly went on to do phenomenally well for their new, no-name connections.  It was the talk of the track.  What was up with so-and-so?  Had he lost it?

“No,” my friend said.  (Sanitized version for family blogging.)  “He’s the same half-..… hack and turf club toff he’s always been.  But I did pay him a visit for a week about a month ago.  I already had a good tan, so I grew a mustache, let my hair get long, and pretended I couldn’t speak English.  Ya’ know, no hablo Ingles? 

“He barely looked at me.  Didn’t matter anyway.  He wouldn’t remember me even if his next shady bloodstock deal depended on it.  He hired me as a hot walker.  One day, he owed me $39, gave me two twenties, and held out his hand for the dollar change.  What a spit!

“But I did get to know his horses. Rrrrrreal well.  The shyster charges the top day rate on the backstretch, but still goes cheap on feed and never looks at the feet.  I put together a little scouting report.  Complete with recommendations for how to move’em up.  Made it all nice and neat and printed it up on the copier he has in his own office.  Sold it to ten guys for $500 a piece and made five times that much betting.  Pero, yo escribo Ingles!”

Rachel Alexandra – 2009 Preakness, Haskell and Woodward winner and reigning Horse of the Year – will return to Monmouth Park on July 24, 2010 to run in the Lady’s Secret Stakes (moved from Haskell Day).  Since I do want to focus on the upcoming U.N., I’ll dive more into the specifics on Sunday, but I’ll say this…if you’re not exciting about Rachel Alexandra running during the Elite Summer Meet at Monmouth Park, there’s a problem.  I told my boss today that I thought Rachel would boost attendance on July 24 by over 5,000.  Let’s start spreading the word now so I can be right.  I want to see 20,000+.

The BetFair/TVG United Nations – in my eyes – is an underrated race.  Just look what the past two winners (both won back-to-back editions) have accomplished in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.  English Channel trounced the field in the ’07 Turf right here at Monmouth Park.  And Presious Passion gave Conduit all he could handle in the stretch while finishing second last year at Santa Anita.

Unfortunately, we received news following Wednesday’s draw that 2-time defending champion and Monmouth Park legend Presious Passion will not be going for three in a row Saturday.  Despite his absence, there’s still a chance a horse will have a “Presious Passion-like” early lead.

That horse would be California invader Acclamation who exits consecutive graded stakes scores out west including the Grade I Charles Whittingham most recently.  He may not be 20 lengths in front like Mr. Passion in last year’s tour de force, but he should have a clear early advantage.

The horse most likely to be closest to Acclamation early is Get Serious.  Like Presious Passion, Get Serious loves the Monmouth Park grass – having won eight of 10 starts on the local lawn.  The big question mark with him is the distance.  Can he get 11 furlongs?  That’s a question I can’t answer.

I’m expecting my likely selection, Straight Story, to be third in the early stages of the U.N. – even though that might mean 10-15 lengths out of it.  Last year, this 4-year-old finished a close second in a pair of Grade II’s and the Grade I Jamaica, but hasn’t had any problem finding the winner’s circle in 2010 – albeit against far weaker competition.  Straight Story should be in the perfect position to strike should Acclamation and/or Get Serious falter, and I’m thinking he’ll be the one to catch with the lead in the stretch.

With two days to tweek my opinion, I’m looking at a Straight Story/Take the Points exacta box in the U.N.

The Grade III Salvator Mile immediately follows the U.N. Saturday and features five graded stakes winners.  Early indications have me pointing towards Le Grand Cru wire-to-wire in this event.  With trainer Todd Pletcher also saddling Munnings (pace setter in last year’s Haskell) in the Salvator, I can’t envision him wanting the two going head-to-head, so hopefully he’ll have Garrett Gomez take Munnings back off the pace leaving Le Grand Cru all along up front.  At least that’s how the race looks in my head. 

For fans all across the country, remember that U.N. Day will feature a $250,000 Guaranteed Pick 5 pool presented by BetFair/TVG and a $100,000 Guaranteed late Pick 4.  For local fans, remember that U.N. Day also features a Monmouth Park umbrella giveaway.  Maybe you should get in line now!!

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Trip Notes 

June 25 

Race 1 – Returnee Cancanier broke slow from the 2-post, had to hustle on a dull rail, steadied on the turn, and continued evenly and decently.

Race 4 – Pick Off, at 137-1, improved big-time engaging in a prolonged duel with a dropping-down, stretching out sprinter.  His newfound speed will be dangerous as the conditioned claiming ranks thin.

Race 10 – Gimme Credit, a perfect stylistic fit for this turf course’s tight contours, showed open stakes quality acceleration.

June 26 

Race 4 – Elite Miss continued her positive progression in her second 2010 start for a very patient barn.  Might need a drop.

Race 5 – This state-bred maiden special came up weak and slow, but both Jax Maxx and Lucky Evening already have run for tags and they readily can take advantage of restricted maiden claimers.  The former wants two turns and the latter had traffic issues.

Race 9 – Grade III Boling Springs runner-up Bay To Bay is a big leaguer.  She ran super despite being compromised by pace, double bias and trip.  4th-finisher Martita Sangrita continued to improve and pulled up like she can advance yet another notch.  6th-finishing Justaroundmidnight was bottled up, boxed in, or lacking room throughout.  She couldn’t be ridden for the final sixteenth, but only wound up beaten 3 ¼ lengths in a fairly amazing performance.  She’s truly of graded stakes quality – especially with more time between starts.

Race 10 – Malibu Prayer is much improved over her 3-year-old alter ego now that she’s turned four.  She can win the right Grade I at 1 1/16 miles or less.

Race 11 – Taperrific kept grinding despite stretch traffic in yet another improved performance.  Two turns beckons.

June 27 

Race 1 – What other top jockey other than Joe Bravo would have won with Happy Jo here?  Bravo had to work hard every step on the dropping, 2-year-old filly maiden, 2^nd-time starter.  Many would have given up in upper stretch, but not this guy.  That’s the competitiveness and the effort that makes him Joe Bravo.

Race 3 – Morning Line is yet another excellent Nick Zito-trained 3-year-old.  This one could out gallop a relay team of 19^th-century pony express horses without breaking a sweat.

Race 6 – Great ride by the almost-always-aggressive Eibar Coa sending erstwhile pace-presser Tune Me In on a front-end mission.  Favored (2-5) Santa, a clear leader in his last, evidently failed to get the memo about how speed favoring the Monmouth turf was Sunday and rated (Rated!) his way to a tepid, 3^rd-place finish.  If only the horses were smart enough to pay attention to how a course is playing!

Race 7 – Barely Nothing is fit and tries hard, but is modestly talented.  When he drops to his proper level, he could blossom into a new horse. 

I read an article by Steve Anderson on drf.com today mentioning the Grade I United Nations as a possible next start for Grade I Californian Acclamation.  A quick look at that one’s PP’s shows that he has become an absolute speed beast – leading by as many as 10 lengths early in one of his most recent scores.  If he indeed makes the cross-county trip, that makes Presious Passion, Get Serious and Acclamation!!  Can someone say speed duel? 

Speaking of the United Nations, why does a day that features a Grade I race on turf and a Grade III race on dirt (both Breeders’ Cup Win & You’re In events) not attract a larger crowd?  I’m always astounded that United Nations and Salvator Mile Day doesn’t annually attract 20,000+.  I personally love this day and can’t wait to play the $100,000 Guaranteed Pick 4.

The Minnesota Twins were at Citi Field this weekend for a series with the Mets.  In Friday night’s game, Twins catcher Joe Mauer even further solidified his status as an absolute monster.  With runners on first and second for the Mets, manager Jerry Manuel called for a double steal.  In a play I have never seen before, Mauer threw to second and caught the trailing runner.  If he thought prior to the play to throw to second in the case of a double steal, he is an amazing player.  If he noticed during the play that the runner on first was “dogging it” and threw to second, he is a baseball god!

Being from a fishing family, I’ve had a lot of seafood in my life.  For the first time ever, however, I had line caught cod this week for dinner.  Survey says – a little underwhelming.  I say stick with the striped bass…or mahi mahi…or grouper.

To try to think up some ideas for today’s blog, I sat in the Grandstand this morning and took in the morning workouts – hoping that the activity would get the brain flowing.  What I realized is that exercise riders, gallopers and outriders are really underrated!!  When it gets busy out there in the mornings, it’s absolute chaos.  And it’s a testament to the previously mentioned that nobody gets hurt.  My only training hours wish was that there was someway to know which horse was which.  (Especially this morning when a couple Kelly Breen workers looked absolutely phenomenal!!) 

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Racing now truly is a national and global game, so let’s extend the reach of opinion.

Grade I Stephen Foster winner Blame’s seemingly soft speed figures might obscure his vast room for additional improvement, perfect suitability for Churchill Downs, and total pureness as a mile and a quarter horse.  He is the one to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

On the Foster undercard, 3-year-old filly Dynazaper ran an extremely strong 5^th in the Grade III Regret despite an impossible set-up and trip.  She can move way forward with a better post and/or on a firmer turf course. 

In Woodbine’s Queen’s Plate Trial on June 13, 3^rd-finishing Mobthewarrior continued his subtle improvement and could be a pricey exotics factor in the classic.  But it was the well-seasoned, forced-to-hustle-too-soon, 4^th-finishing Giant’s Tomb who stamped himself as a perfect fit for the Queen’s Plate’s ten-furlong distance.

Dominant Epsom Derby winner Workforce now is carrying the weight of ever-cheerleading Euro press.  As good as the colt was on the day, however, the Darby had a counterfeit feel from the favorite losing both front shoes, to the 100-1 “rabbit” holding for second.  With the help of a star-struck PR machine, Workforce will be a huge underlay next out and, on common sense, also will be vulnerable if matched with a competitive group.

A feature about racing Hall of Famers in Daily Racing Form on Saturday, June 19 was interesting reading, but placed far too much emphasis on statistics and elite race victories.  Racing is a game full of subjectivity – Thank Goodness! – and not merely about inflexible numbers (no handicapping pun intended!).  And let’s face it, Howdy Doody could win Grade I’s if he had the volume and quantity of stock so many contemporary super-trainers are given.

Additionally, I strongly take issue with late trainer Phil Johnson being listed among the so-called questionable hall members – and being described as a “raconteur,” with the clear insinuation being that his social skills influenced his election.  I’ve followed the New York racing circuit every day for 35 years and no horseman at that venue has done better work with the stock at his disposal than Johnson.  He was involved in the breeding and ownership of many of his horses – most of whom were homebreds rather than coddled, over-priced purchases.  His charges consistently improved over time, handled both dirt and turf, got better with maturity and distance, had long careers, gave horseplayers a fair chance to evaluate their form patterns, and over-achieved their sheer talent level.

All those things add up to Hall of Fame credentials by my reckoning.  Phil Johnson was an all-time great who was everything a real trainer should be, but also many things modern trainers, sadly, are not. 

Make Music For Me, a great 4^th in the Kentucky Derby before running poorly in the Belmont on a racing strip he disliked from the moment he set foot on it, is a major 3-year-old talent.  Perhaps best going a fast-paced middle distance on turf or demanding synthetic, he needs to be re-developed with coherent planning and patient courage.   

Is there anything better than the desire to be the best?  I only saw highlights of the epic, five-set Wimbledon match between John Isner and Nicolas Mahut – in which Isner won the final set 70-68 – but the passion and determination those two athletes showed was something else.  Coming into the tournament, did either of these two guys have a shot in the world of winning the whole thing?  Probably not.  But after five sets and 10+ hours, both of these players were still arguing calls, serving their guts out, and doing all-out dives.  Why?  Because it doesn’t matter if you’re the #1 player in the world or #394.  The desire to be the best is something special.

I got home a little late last night – just in time to catch the last two innings of the Mets game.  Even though we’re only two months into the season, I have to admit it still surprises me a little to see the Mets winning the majority of the time when I turn on the TV.  Before the season started – and even once the season started – I didn’t think the Mets had enough pitching to sustain a season-long run.  Trust me, I hope I’m proven wrong in September and October.  But do they really have to prove me wrong with a knuckleballer named R.A. Dickey?  A month ago, I didn’t even know R.A. Dickey existed.  What does R.A. stand for anyway?  I’m rooting for Renaldo Archibald.

I’m about 90% sure the NBA Draft is Thursday.  If so, here’s hoping both the Pistons and Nets pick a winner.  As a Pistons fan, I would obviously like to see them back in the playoffs.  As a huge Brook Lopez fan (isn’t it mandatory to use the word “huge” every time you refer to Brook Lopez), I wouldn’t mind seeing the Nets in the playoffs either.

After giving out short-priced horses for the past few weeks – usually unsuccessfully – I’m taking a shot with a 10-1 price on the morning line in Saturday’s Grade III Boiling Springs Stakes at Monmouth Park.  #1 Justaroundmidnight only won a maiden special weight last out, but that was one dominant score!  She rallied from near the back of the pack, raced strongly while caught behind rivals on the far turn, and then exploded when switched to daylight in the stretch.  Come on Joe Bravo, Brian can use some food money.

So after a long day of fishing on Monday, I had the urge for dinner at Surf Taco.  Now, I’ll preface this by saying that Surf Taco is a chain, and I’m pretty sure it won’t be voted one of the top 10 Mexican Eateries in the United States (even though in 2007, Zagat did rate it as the #2 best bargain in New Jersey behind some place called Amazing Hot Dog which currently may or may not be out of business), but I think it’s safe to say I could eat there every night.  Obviously, nothing beats my own homemade fish tacos, but Surf Taco’s Mahi Mahi or Salmon tacos are pretty darn good.

Over the course of the last few weeks, I’ve come across a couple of my biggest pet peeves.  #1 – Treat people the way you want to be treated.  Do you have any idea how selfish it is to be rude or disrespectful to someone and then expect them to help you out or ask them to do you a favor in the future?  #2 – Just because someone else does things or enjoys things differently than you, doesn’t mean that person is wrong or weird.  Every person is different.  It’s arrogant to think you’re way is the only way.

I played the best round of golf in my life on Tuesday at Rutgers Golf Course.  It was 90 degrees, probably 90% humidity and there was absolutely no wind.  I loved every second of it.  There’s just something about those kind of days that I relish.  It used to be baseball, now it’s golf, but I would say 99% of my best athletic performances came on days where the temperature was above 85 degrees and it felt like a Brazilian rainforest.  I think the fact that most people hate that kind of weather makes me like it more.

In other selfish promotion of athletic achievement… After shooting a career-best 82 Tuesday on the Rutgers University Golf Course, I filled in for a friend in a bowling league.  When I brought up to my other friend – and bowling partner for the night – that I hadn’t bowled in a few months (a nice way of saying “this could get ugly”), he responded by saying the team we were going up against was three-time defending league champs.  (That was his nice way of saying “this could get ugly.”)  When we got to the alley and the defending champs realized they were going against an alternate, they began talking about sandbagging (doing badly on purpose once a win is secured).  Four games later, my friend and I left with a 12-8 win.  Why?  Because is doesn’t matter if it’s business of bowling.  The desire to be the best is something special.

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories 

With so many two-turn turf races already having started from the chute this meeting, the trickiness of breaking from the inside two posts from that location – especially the pole position – has been accentuated.  Horses with speed and/or a tactical dimension must make a decision to send or sit quite quickly and have very little wiggle room for reacting to race developments.  Sometimes, horses wind up being used way too hard early and at other times, they are taken back into oblivion on a course coldly unkind to deep closers.  Jockeys Joe Bravo, Elvis Trujillo and Paco Lopez are particularly adept at handling the inside-post, chute dilemma.

Seven pound apprentice Alice Cartwright finished second at 16-1 last Friday and won Saturday at those same odds.  She’s getting smoother, stronger, smarter and surer.  Cartwright is ready to win a couple or more races per week.

And speaking of jockeys, Francisco Maysonett delivered the performance of the season on Sunday’s 15-1 Bernie Dowd Handicap upsetter Evenings End.  Maysonett broke well from the rail to preserve position, adroitly took back his stretching-out sprinter, eased out to the best part of the outside-biased surface, sat in a perfect tactical spot off a speed duel, and blew the race wide open with a bold middle move.  So much for Evening End being a one-dimensional, front-running sprinter!

A long-time, low-profile journeyman on this circuit, Maysonett has improved his technique and softened the edges of his style in recent years.  Every ride he provides is intelligent, well thought out, and confidently executed.  If he had the same opportunities as many of the higher-profile jockeys in the colony, Francisco Maysonett surely would be in the top five in the standings.

Jerry West’s shooting percentage was mediocre by modern standards.  Catfish Hunter sometimes had a high ERA for a top pitcher.  Jim Plunket’s ratio of completed passes barely broke the 50% barrier.  But all those guys did was win.  And in that vein, New Jersey Thoroughbred racing has last Sunday’s Race 4 victress Unbridled Essence.  Now with four scores on her tab, she’s triumphed by margins of a nose, a head, a head, and a head.  Some athletes just have an intangible competitiveness that makes them winners beyond their sheer talent level – and that quality is this filly’s unbridled essence.

Afleet Express was an impressive winner of the Pegasus in his first start going two turns.  Predicted by many to be on the lead in the early going, the Jimmy Jerkins-trained 3-year-old rated behind the speed (or lack there of) during the initial stages.  While it’s likely, Afleet Express will need to improve off his Pegasus win to compete against the likes of Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky, you have to like what you saw from him on Saturday.

Runner-up Afleet Again is also a horse that could make some noise if pointed to the Haskell.  He’s finished second in Monmouth Park stakes twice so far this year, but – like Afleet Express – will need to step his game up to compete against the “big boys.”  With such improvement, he’s a very logical Haskell factor at likely large odds.

On Sunday, Straight Story ran off to a dominant victory – signaling possible things to come with a step up in class to the Grade I U.N.  The 4-year-old is already Grade I stakes placed after finishing a close second in the Jamaica last fall at Belmont.  While he set the pace in Sunday’s race, Straight Story has rated off the pace in the past and will probably have to return to those tactics in the U.N. with both Presious Passion and Get Serious candidates for the race.  

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

That was some fired-up blog entry by my good friend Brian Skirka on Thursday.  Especially the stuff about Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, and the din of silence emanating from the national media’s stunning under-reaction to the two superstars’ breathtaking performances last week.

A spoiled, coddled, self-absorbed football player whines that he should get more millions than the other kids on the block – months before the season even starts – and it’s splashed all over the place.  Meanwhile, two of the greatest equine athletes of all time actually deliver championship performances and their exploits only are found in print so small guys my age need a microscope to read it.  What a joke!

But the modern media machine is acutely attuned to the desires of the general public.  Rachel and Zenyatta got no publicity because, quite frankly, as summer approaches, the American public (outside of the small, insular world of horse racing) has absolutely no interest in them.  Hollywood Park’s attendance of 12,232 for Zenyatta’s race says it all.  Almost three times the normal Sunday total, it’s still pitifully paltry by true big league buzz standards.

The thing is, in today’s world, it’s not about media and marketing.  It’s about product.  Look at mixed martial arts.  It didn’t become a national sensation because of any genius promoting.  No, it’s huge because the public’s taste – such as it is – drove the sport into the stratosphere.  Now, mass interest is the engine behind print and electronic exposure and not the other way around like it was decades ago.

When – and if – horse racing makes it’s core gambling product consistently good enough both locally and nationally to provide people with fair entertainment value, a low-takeout-fueled reasonable chance of winning, and a compelling incentive to invest passionate energy, the media will return.  And not one second before.

Jockey Elvis Trujillo is on the cusp of becoming a true superstar.  Witness how in Race 7 on June 19 he and No Acronyms, despite apparently having less early foot, repeatedly beat Joe Bravo and Dwelling Place to key tactical spots and inside position.  It was a part Jerry Bailey, part Angel Cordero, Jr. masterpiece of a ride.

The following horses were compromised by racing near a dull inside on dirt.

June 18

Race 3 – East to Eden

Race 4 – Thefourteenthmoon (still outdueled the 8/5 fave)

Race 10 – Blaise N Tony (Again!)

Race 11 – Balraj

Race 12 – Halloran (And was much improved in general)

June 19

Race 2 – Backhanded Jane

Race 8 – Aegean

Brad Thomas’ Trip Notes

June 18

Race 5 – Caught in Action needs the maneuverability provided by an outside draw.

June 19

Race 5 – Racketeer finished sneaky well against pace and bias.  He needs more distance and a course playing more kindly to closers.

Race 8 – Cat Mistress was pace stung and still held well in her return.  She’ll be tough stretching out.

Morning line favorite #3 Jackson Bend looks tough to beat in here – I say that based on performance and heart.  This little guy has only been off the board once in his 11-race career and should be able to sit a perfect stalking trip behind expected pacesetter #6 Afleet Express in a field with very little apparent early speed.  I’ll take fifth-choice on the morning line #2 Schoolyard Dreams to round out the exacta.  The Derek Ryan trainee should relish the return to a shorter distance after back-to-back lackluster efforts in the nine-furlong Wood Memorial and nine-and-a-half-furlong Preakness.

Elsewhere around the country on Saturday, Colonial hosts the Grade II Colonial Turf Cup and there’s actually a huge card at Charles Town! 

In the Turf Cup, #1 Paddy O’Prado is the likely favorite as he exits a third-place Kentucky Derby finish and a disappointing sixth in the Preakness.  He returns to what I think is his preferred and best surface, and will likely be a handful to beat.  With all that said, I think I’m going to try to beat him with #5 Doubles Partner – hoping the first two legs of the Triple Crown took a little something out of PO’P.  Doubles Partner is undefeated on the green including the Grade II American Turf last out at Churchill Downs.  It’s 100% chalk all the way, but I’m finding it really hard to get past the 1/5 exacta box in this one.

At Charles Town – yes, I play Charles Town, what’s wrong with that – six stakes highlight an 11-race card beginning at 6 pm eastern.   I’ll be taking a long, hard look at the 50-cent Pick 4 that begins in Race 7.  In the sequence, #4 Trust Or Bust in Race 8 is a gutsy CT spinter – and by sprinter I mean 4 ½-furlong specialist – who will definitely be on my ticket.  #9 Ju Jitsi Jax has three Charles Town wins and recently beat Trust Or Bust.  #8 Central City is a scary new shooter, but may be better sprinting on turf.      

Brian Skirka’s Thursday Thoughts 

It was really great to see Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta back in the winner’s circle this past Saturday.  Both are unbelievable athletes and both are in the top four of the best horses I’ve ever seen (along with Ghostzapper and Curlin).  I was lucky enough to be at Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year, and that was undeniably the loudest crowd reaction I’ve ever experienced.  My brother was lucky enough to be in Saratoga for the Woodward, and said that was by far the greatest thing he’s ever seen.

With Rachel’s cruise-control tour de force at Churchill and Zenyatta’s nail-biting stretch run at Hollywood, my only concern is that this will start up the “Rachel vs. Zenyatta debate” all over again.  I can hear it now – team Rachel says “When Rachel wins, she wins by 10 lengths and when Zenyatta wins, she wins by a neck.  How are they even comparable?”  And the Zenyatta people will answer with “Well, we don’t have to say ‘when’ Zenyatta wins because she wins every time.” 

For once and for all, can people stop arguing about who is better.  Can people stop downgrading the achievements of one or the other.  These are two of the best female horses of all-time and all some people can do is prop up their favorite by disparaging the other.  I find this ridiculous and actually a little offensive. 

Instead of making up negatives, we should be celebrating their joint accomplishments.  As an industry, we should be doing all we can do to get the mainstream media to pay attention.  All we hear in this industry is how we need more star power.  Well, this past Saturday, both reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and 16-for-16 Zenyatta took to the track.  How much media coverage did it receive?  I surely didn’t see any.  Unless you bought the Daily Racing Form or watched TVG, how would you know these two superstars were even running? 

For the last decade, we’ve been looking for superstars to promote.  Now we have TWO.  And they’re both girls who have beaten the boys!  Come on now, you don’t have to be Shakespeare to think of the storyline for those advertisements.  Outside of racing publications and Kentucky/California newspapers, was there any mention of Rachel or Zenyatta on Saturday?  What about Sunday after they both won? 

Shouldn’t there be people whose job it is to promote racing and get our stars in the national media?  Could you imagine the media coverage if Lebron James was on the verge of 17-straight 50-point games? Or if Alex Rodriguez was on the verge of hitting a homerun in 17-straight games?  Or if pre-controversy Tiger Woods was on the verge of winning 17-straight golf tournaments?  The entire sports section of the paper would be dedicated to that.  But Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta can’t get any of that love – not a race preview, not a photo, not even a mention. 

Not to toot our own horn, but we had a pair of, special full-page advertisements in our Saturday program this week.  One for local-legend Presious Passion in the Monmouth Stakes, and the other for defending Haskell champion Rachel Alexandra running at Churchill.  Sunday we had a full-page for Zenyatta at Hollywood.  Maybe they caught people’s attention and those people stayed to watch the race.  Maybe they didn’t.  But at least they were out there.  At least people had the opportunity to find the information if they wanted it.  It’s a shame our industry couldn’t do the same on a national level.  These two horses are exactly what bring (and keep) new fans into the game.  Unfortunately, they won’t be around forever, because right now we’re wasting a great opportunity to promote our sport. 

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Theories  

The NJ-Bred ranks have been especially volatile this season with favorites having won only seven of 25 (28%) such contests.  What is even more telling has been the odds of some of the winners – 9-1, 11-1, 13-1 twice, 28-1, 40-1 (dead heat), and 60-1.  Non-favorite winners have included first-time starters and layoff horses, as one would expect, but also horses who previously had been competing, often for low claiming tags, at alternate gambling venues like Philadelphia Park and Penn National.

As the year progresses and the state-bred maiden and allowance ranks thin, expect favorites to do better.  Often times late season value emerges when horses drop down after competing – and being well-beaten – in deep, early season races.  In such instances, pace figures can be far more meaningful than speed figures.

Like I said in Thursday’s blog, I mentioned to Brad Thomas about a month ago that I thought Dynamoor was a possible Hotstufanthensome number two.  The first time I saw Dynamoor, I happened to be working a winter handicapping contest on February 27 when he won a first-level allowance at Gulfstream.  I actually liked the eventual runner-up when I handicapped the race, but was impressed by what I saw from Dynamoor as he rallied past my selection in deep stretch. 

From there, Dynamoor jumped into Grade III competition on Derby Day at Belmont and ran a very valiant race to be second to another personal favorite – and fellow Monmouth Stakes participant – Baletti.  (That’s second behind a very solid animal in only Dynamoor’s fourth-career start.)  In career start number five, Dynamoor finished a troubled third in Saturday’s Monmouth Stakes. 

Usually a horse that likes to sit in the first half of the pack early, Dynamoor was bumped and squeezed back to last in the nine-horse field 100 yards into the Monmouth Stakes.  Over a course that has favored speed all meet – and despite a wide trip down the backside – Dynamoor rallied strongly in the lane to finish a very respectable third behind Get Serious and Roman Tiger.     

This 4-year-old has only run five races, but has shown improvement in all five.  He’s already competitive to say the least in Grade III races and all indications point towards a bright future.  With a turf division relatively weak at the time being, Dynamoor is definitely a horse to keep an eye on. 

And I guess I’ll just have to hope that he’ll be around for the next six years like Hotstufanthensome was. 

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings 

Lost in the superficial storyline of trainer Bill Mott finally winning a Triple Crown race was any meaningful discussion about the truly brilliant work the conditioner did in prepping Drosselmeyer for his Belmont Stakes victory.  Mott, likely realizing that the 1-1/2 mile race was the lumbering colt’s one chance for Grade 1 glory, asked him for his net worth with a string of unusually fast drills leading up to the contest.  While other conditioners were being babied along in the soft management style of new wave horse racing, Mott’s old-school approach gave his charge the sharpness to out-foot key rival Fly Down to important spots three times on the backstretch and then get critical, first run on the ultimate runner-up on the second turn.

In yesterday’s Grade III Monmouth Stakes, Get Serious didn’t back off from Presious Passion early and it was the latter, along with jockey Elvis Trujillo, who blinked and took off the pace.  When Presious Passion didn’t get the game he desired, he took his ball and went home a well-beaten horse.  Was he tired from a hard career and a trip to Meydan?  Is he just a bully?  Was it just a bad day?  We’ll find out next time.

And credit Get Serious, jockey Pablo Fragoso, and the training team of John Forbes and Pat McBurney for running in an aggressive spot and going all-in for the win pot.

Before I worked at Monmouth Park, I never had met recently deceased Asbury Park Press columnist Bill Handleman.  Still, we knew of each other and became instant friends without need of introduction.  With an opinionated personality outsized only by a good and great heart, Bill was that rare person who could vehemently disagree with someone while truly respecting their side.  In fact, debating with Bill only made one like him better.  A writer both visceral and skilled, he was a treat to read.  And as a man, his strong inner character drove him to better himself as a person throughout his lifetime.

In a press box many years ago, Bill would give the young attendant nearly spent betting vouchers when they dropped below $1.00 – which happened all too frequently that summer.  Soon the kid had a stack in his desk drawer and no doubt was dreaming of a wild night out at the end of the season.  Then, after another long day at the windows, Bill came running in yelling about “word” he’d just received concerning a first-time starter in the last race.  “Hey!” he bellowed.  “Ya’ know those vouchers I’ve been giving ya’?  I’m going to be needin’ them to…”

Brad Thomas’ Trip Notes

June 11

Race 3 – Firster Ratoath Special had the pedigree, build, style, and pull up of a horse looking for more distance.   

Race 5 – Enduro improved significantly against the grain while returning to one of his favorite dirt courses.

June 12

Race 2 – Matthew T C ran deceptively well despite being compromised by a slow start from the rail and racing on the dull inside.

Race 5 – Leadwithyourchin finished superbly in his needed return.

Race 7 – Dream Waltz disliked his inside position and has much room to improve with an outer-more draw.

Race 9 – Cactus Charlie had a stressful trip and can improve next time when 3^rd-off-the-bench.  A bit wet going to the gate, a more settled pre-race experience also should help.

Race 10 – Dynamoor ran a stupendous race given the impossible set-up and trip.

Asking me to select one horse to win this race is like asking me to choose between Warrick Dunn and Mike Mussina as my favorite athlete of all time.  Or asking me to choose between Cluck-U Chicken and Surf Taco as my favorite snack stop.  It can’t be done!

Choosing one horse to win the Monmouth Stakes means I have to root against three of my top ten favorite horses.  That is something I am not looking forward to in the least.

#2 Baletti is a horse that I began following last year after a very visually impressive third-place finish in his 2009 debut at Gulfstream.  His race on May 31, 2009 was incredible.  Runner-up Fluke won a Grade I at Hollywood later in the year.  Third-place finisher Dancing Forever was already a Grade I winner.  That was no allowance win for Baletti – it was at least a Grade II score.  Throw in the fact that he flew home in 28 1/5 seconds for the final 5/16ths after sitting behind a slow pace and this guy was on my top ten list.  Baletti exits a Grade III score at Belmont on Derby Day and he’s a better animal than it appears on paper.  A serious threat in this – and future – graded events.

I told Brad Thomas about a month ago that #4 Dynamoor could be the next Hotstufanthensome in the making.  For me, that is a big statement.  (For you new MP Blog readers, Hotstuf was my first and still all-time favorite horse who helped me get hooked on the sport of horse racing.)  This 4-year-old has only run four times, but is already stakes placed – he finished behind Baletti last out – and has improved his Beyer Speed Figures in all four trips to the track.  He’s never run a bad race and his connections must be respected.  Could be scary good in the future and the Monmouth Stakes may just be his coming out party.

I became a fan of #8 Blues Street after a race at Mountaineer of all places.  Just like I do every May 25, I was watching the races from Mountaineer – no seriously, every May 25 (ok not really) – and Blues Street ran a very big race at very small odds of 4-5.  For some reason, the then 5-year-old struck me as an underrated horse – so I threw him in my top ten.  This winter/spring, Blues Street actually became “rated” – wouldn’t that be somewhere in between underrated and overrated – by winning two graded events at the Fair Grounds and finishing a decent fifth in the Grade I Turf Classic at Churchill Downs on the Derby undercard.  He’s won four of his last five, goes out for trainer Todd Pletcher (no more needs to be said), and lures jockey David Cohen from Belmont Park for the mount.  In career form and dropping in class.

That leads me to #6 Presious Passion.  I’ve been a bit critical of this guy over the past couple of years, saying things like “he’s overrated,” “he can’t win on wet turf,” and “he’s just not that good.”  Loud and clear, for once and for all, to owner Patricia Generazio and trainer Mary Hartmann, I am sorry.  I’m not sure why it took so long, but I’ve finally realized that what I originally classified as “luck” was actually “heart.”  How can you not like a horse that goes out and gives 150% every time, all the while employing a running style that is unheard-of and completely opposite from the norm?  How can you not like a horse that battled back on the inside of Proudinsky to win the 2009 Monmouth Stakes after being passed on the far turn?  How can you not like a horse that won the ’09 United Nations after opening a 20-length early lead?  How can you not like a horse that opened a 10-length early lead in the Breeders’ Cup Turf and battled tooth and nail with one of the best turf horses in the world before falling just short? 

When it comes to Presious Passion, where once I had anger, I now have praise.  Where once I had disbelief (that he wasn’t any good), I now have disbelief (of the amazing things that he can do).  And where once I had doubt, I now have respect. 

I pride myself on doings things that I want to do, the way I want to do them – and not caring what some friends or the rest of society thinks.  And that’s why I’ve learned to love Presious Passion.  He has his haters, but he continues to do things his own way – and you know what, he’s pretty darn good at it.

The days of me rooting against Presious Passion are actually not that too far in the past, but those days are gone.  I used to have a negative opinion of him, and I was wrong.  I still haven’t decided who I will pick to win the Monmouth Stakes, but I know one thing – Presious Passion is most-likely to be in the lead at the top of the stretch, and no matter my official selection, I’ll be rooting for him to hold on.

Below is a 3-minute montage I put together about Presious Passion that I hope you all enjoy.  As always, please let us know what you think, and enjoy the Monmouth Stakes on Saturday.  No matter who wins, this is going to be one heck of a race!

Why do I like horse racing? – By Brad Thomas 

Part 1 

Way back before the internet, cable and reality shows, when the threat of sanitizing renewal was merely an urban legend and somewhere between a modern college book store and unisex hair parlor, there was a store-front newsstand right across from the train station in New Brunswick, New Jersey.

The compacted grit of crusty generations had been compulsively ground into its cranky, grainy, wooden flooring that strained beneath the burden of an ancient soda cooler overflowing with ice water and bottles colored like a walking ring parading 12 different sets of silks. 

The cramped shelves were perilously stacked with cheap cigars and button candy, hair grease tins and replacement flints, corn cob pipes and combs, boxing magazines and tawdry novels, chocolate cigarettes and paper party favors, and countless other sundry goods superfluous to life but easing to the living.

The joint housed the character of a simpler era, but seduced characters whose personalities played on a timeless loop.

There was the round, white-haired, droopy-jowled sage who shared the knowledge of the ages and aged through narrative monologue rather than direct conversation.

There was the youthful fast-talker, street-cool and bereft of on-the-record employment, who used the rotary pay phone to make women and book.

There was the quiet, awkwardly bespectacled fellow whose gaze burned through everything he saw until a thoughtful question animated his eyes and elicited a crisp, jocular and profane answer about why an odds-on favorite folded.

There was the small man with large, gnarled and knobby hands and a face of roughly stitched leather who moved with the stealthy grace of a fox and smiled sweetly while wagging tales of horses held and coups cashed.

And there was the mailman with his worn leather pouch full of undelivered letters mingling merrily with folded, faded, fraying and flapping racing charts encrypted with the wisdom of a sorting and sporting life.

To a man, these were dedicated cynics enslaved by eternal optimism.  They were waiting for the truck.

Shortly past ten every night it ambled east down Albany St. and slowed just enough opposite the stone railroad underpass so that a crunched, haunched specter could launch a pale bundle with reasonable chance of reaching the curb.

Upon impact, the diverse converged in a frenzied assault on the thin twine securing the parcel.  Penn Knives and nail clippers flashed and slashed through the darkness and opposite hands snatched.  The package disappeared like a school of sole dropped into a pool of piranhas.

Coins bouncing, spinning and rolling on the chapped, chipped counter clinked adjournment as the assemblage scattered to individual recesses deep in the corners of the Raritan Valley.

The next day’s Daily Racing Form now was in orbit around an energized shadow world revolving anew on its re-charged axis.

As I said, I think this topic is the most challenging in all of horse racing – unfortunately it’s also one of the most important.  My opinion is three-pronged and all based on personal experience.  The first two prongs helped get me hooked on horse racing while the third is what I try to do now to help attract fans.

As someone who didn’t grow up on the backside or have a father who was a trainer, I became a horse racing enthusiast because my family – namely my uncle – brought me to the track and taught me how the game worked.  I started off as a novice to say the least – the first couple times I handicapped a race, I thought a horse’s most recent race was listed at the bottom of the past performances.  Obviously, I didn’t pick a lot of winners that way, but I still enjoyed myself and wanted to continue to learn about the sport.  After lessons in the basics and, eventually, more sophisticated strategy, I started to learn how to play the sport more successfully.  It wasn’t any marketing strategy a certain racetrack had, and it wasn’t a pamphlet that explained how to bet the races.  I learned because my uncle taught me.  And my uncle learned because his father taught him. 

My first way to “hook” a younger demographic focuses on all the fathers, uncles, grandfathers, mothers, aunts, cousins, brothers and sisters.  If you love horse racing, share that love with friends and family.  Bring them to the track, teach them how to read the program, and then make sure they come back.  Take them to the paddock and show them what to look for.  Be sure they know, “Hey, that’s Joe Bravo.”  Just like many dads take their sons to a baseball field to have a catch at a young age, “racing dads” should bring their kids to the track.  That will accomplish two things – one, teaching a younger generation about Thoroughbred racing, and two, allowing dads and/or moms the opportunity to spend more time with their kids.

By the time I was 18, I was pretty much hooked on horse racing.  Half of the reason was because I was taught how to read the form.  The other half of the reason (which is well documented for you MP Blog readers) is Hotstufanthensome.  He was my favorite horse, and drew me to the track every time he ran.  While trying to attract new fans, the more you can get them to the track the better.

My second way to “hook” a younger demographic is to promote racing’s “stars.”  For this example, “stars” doesn’t even mean superstars like Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta.  Every track has its set of stars.  Currently, Monmouth Park’s stars would be horses like Joey P., Who’s the Cowboy, Get Serious and Presious Passion.  But also, every racing fan has his/her own set of “stars.”  Over the past few years, my “stars” have included Hotstuf, Fishy Advice, Mooji Moo, Go Deputy and Any Given Saturday.  (Notice how many of those would not be considered national “stars.”)  I feel that not only should the individual horseplayers support their personal “stars,” but each racetrack, and racing in general, should do a better job promoting their top horses.  Using Monmouth Park as an example, horses like Joey P. and Presious Passion have the power and popularity to put butts in the seats, and we as a track should do more to promote them.  (For those of you who saw, we did have a cool promo page in the program for Joey P. vs. Who’s the Cowboy XII.)  Just like basketball fans flock to a Nets game when Lebron James or Kobe Bryant are in town, I think racing fans will flock to the track to see the sport’s celebrities.  (See California racing fans and their relationship with Zenyatta!!)

My third and final way to get a younger generation hooked on the sport of horse racing is something I’m doing right now…and I literally mean right now.  When I write the blogs, I try my hardest to speak (or should I say type) in a way that is conversational and entertaining.  Nobody, not just the younger generation, wants to be lectured to in a boring way.  That’s why – whenever I can – I try to add humor and entertainment to my blogs.  In my opinion, the more laid-back approach makes it easier for people to read – which hopefully makes it easier to people to learn.

Obviously, there are more ways than the above to attract a younger crowd.  Below is a video of some younger fans’ opinions and we’d love to here what you think.

Brad Thomas’ Saturday Trip Notes

Race 2 – Kat’s Mystery made a big and much improved middle move off the bench while returning to her favorite track.  More pace and a field devoid of in-form dropdowns would help.

Race 3 – Firster Tomica’s Spirit outperformed her recent $10,000 purchase price battling two well-bred rivals while on a dull rail.  Very dangerous dropping in for a tag.

Race 4 – Maxxam Xpress has faced impossible set-ups and tough biases in his two local starts.  Watch out when he catches speed favoring conditions – especially off a drop!

Race 7 – Nicky Red has the lanky build and grinding style of a two-turn horse.  He fought hard here sprinting despite being near a dull rail at times.

Race 8 – Barely Nothing ran deceptively decently despite racing on an unfamiliar surface.  He’s ready now for wet dirt.

Race 9 – Concorde’s Pastry was ruined by her impossible post and subsequent wide trip.  Still, she finished well in front of her three speed rivals – two of whom were well bet.

Race 11 – Perfect Officer had no chance given the pace and bias conditions.  He needs more give in his grass and/or slightly longer.

Race 12 – Southern Ridge has more gears than any 3-year-old I’ve seen this year – and in this race he was brilliantly schooled by jockey Carlos Marquez, Jr., who taught the colt how to use them!

Brad Thomas’ Random Ramblings

There’s been some debate recently over Best Pal’s election to the pantheon.  So what.  Just as I’ve paid no attention to baseball since the cancellation of the fall classic, I won’t bother about racing polling until there’s a spot on the pedestal reserved for horseplayers.

I’m doing cartwheels over the recent announcement that Quality Road will race twice more before the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  Wow!  Three entire starts in the next five months.  Hope the big brute can handle it!

Been listening to the breathless ravings about over-rated turf 3-year-old Kindergarden Kid.  Well, note the power with which streaking Hoppsey readily dispatched common foe Cherokee Speed (with no pace duel help) in Race 5 at Belmont on Saturday.  Neither the Kid or Hoppsey are superstars, but the latter is big-time underrated and truly worth of some attention.

I watched an old boxing match the other night and got re-familiarized with iconic announcer Don Dunphy.  He provided all the facts and plenty of crisp, succinct and pertinent description.  He also was silent for relatively long periods.  We folks in the racing television business could learn something from him.

If I was a TV network executive, I’d do all I could do to get Matt Carothers on any major racing telecast with which I was involved.  He has a super sense of humor, self confidence balanced with humility, is cross-generational, and really, really knows his stuff.  Oops!  The latter point probably kills his chances.  Too bad.  Quality should mean something – even in the modern world.

“Stablemate The Cognac Kid fought through severe traffic at times and made several moves.  Now having learned to compete on the inside, he should be primed for a try on grass – the surface for which he’s bred on both sides.”

That was an excerpt from Brad Thomas’ analysis in the September 13, 2009 blog.  Oh by the way, The Cognac Kid won Monday’s sixth race at 99-1.  Here’s hoping it was a Monmouth Park Blog reader who took down Monday’s Pick 5.  If it was, have fun with your $35,000.

Both my past and current employers are putting on a show this weekend – and no I’m not talking about Keansburg Amusement Park.  This Saturday, my old employer, the New York Racing Association, Inc., is playing host to some race called the Belmont Stakes – yeah, I think it’s been around for a while.  My current employer, Monmouth Park Racetrack, is hosting the newly-named, two-day Jersey Shore Jazz and Blues Festival.  I’m obviously looking forward to both – but for very different reasons.  One revolves around gambling, the other around soothing relaxation – I’ll leave it up to you which one is which, but I will say that I’m thinking about betting $10 that “TJ Wheeler & the Whole Dang Fangle Youth Project” brings down the house on Sunday.

Seriously though, it’s always fun to try a new event and see how the fans react to it – especially one as popular as the formerly-named Red Bank Jazz and Blues Festival.  Hopefully the thousands of people coming solely for the music will wander over to the track and play a couple races.  If they do, they’ll have two stakes to peruse through. 

Monmouth’s 10^th race on Saturday is the $100,000 Red Cross Stakes.  #1 Christine Daae is a very speedy filly and the likely favorite.  She is, however, cutting back to six furlongs after running in consecutive 1 1/8-mile races.  If the track continues to favor outside closers as it has the first two weekends, Christine Daae may be up against it.  If that is indeed the case, #2 Strut the Canary may be able to upset.  This 4-year-old filly has hit the board in nine of 10 lifetime starts and looks to have a rallying style that the track has aided through the first five racing days.

Monmouth’s 11^th race is one of the tougher turf sprint races I’ve seen.  #9 Blue Sailor appears to be the fastest horse early and could be carried to the wire by a firm turf course favoring speed.  That is, of course, unless there is rain between today and Saturday.  #1 Heros Reward is a hard-knocking turf sprint millionaire and could take be in the right spot to pick up the pieces if the pace is too fast or the course has some give in it.

Switching gears to Belmont Park now and the biggest day of their spring meet.  Saturday is Belmont Stakes Day with six graded stakes making up a $1 million guaranteed Pick 6 and $1 million guaranteed Pick 4 – both sequences ending in the Belmont. 

I’m not a Pick 6 player, but if I was, I think I would try to take a shot against #1 Eightyfiveinafifty in the Grade II Woody Stephens (Race 6).  Could he end up wiring the field and winning by 10, yes.  But he would really scare me if I was thinking of singling him.  After a runaway win breaking his maiden this winter, he was rank and bolted in his next outing.  He came back to win the Bay Shore two months later, despite being rank in the warm up and running a majority of the race with his head turned sideways.  He failed to fire in his most recent at Churchill Downs and – like I said – I would have no confidence putting all my eggs in his basket.  Is he a use on the majority of tickets?  I would have to say yes.  But for me, he is not a single, and in fact, I would prefer #5 D’ Funnybone and even #4 Thank U Philippe.  For a horse that very few people have probably heard of, check out the running lines for Mr. Philippe – second to Jackson Bend (2^nd in Fla. Derby/Wood Memorial, 3^rd in Preakness), second to Eskenderaya (Florida Derby/Wood Memorial winner, Triple Crown winner if healthy). 

If you’re a pace handicapper, I guess you have to like #1a Speak Easy Gal in the Grade I Just a Game (Race 7).  There is NO speed in that race other than her, and it’s not like she’s a slouch – she has won four in a row.  Unless someone goes with her, Speak Easy Gal might just steal herself a Grade I.

The Pick 4 starts in Race 8 and that’s where I’ll be putting my hard-earned dollars.  The True North for sprinters starts the sequence and #3 Bribon is the interesting horse in there.  Similarly to the dilemma we faced Monday with Warrior’s Reward in the Met Mile, what are we to do with this Grade I winner trying a new distance?  On talent alone, Bribon is probably #1 or #2 in the field.  But will the cutback to six furlongs effect him negatively?  If the answer is yes – as it was with Warrior’s Reward – Bribon could be off the board.  If the answer is no, he may very well win.  My early opinion is that the distance change WILL effect Bribon – and not in a good way.  I have the right to change my opinion in the next 48 hours, but as of now, last year’s Met Mile winner is a play against for me.  It’s never fun to pick a favorite, but #2 Custom for Carlos is the horse for me IF he can avoid getting pinned down on the inside.  If he can allow #8 Checklist to clear and move outside that one to a prime stalking position, this 4-year-old will be very tough.

The Grade I Acorn (Race 9) looks like a spread race, but I’m going to take a shot on some tickets possibly singling #6 Amen Hallelujah.  I didn’t like this filly at all in her last two races, but really believe she will relish the cutback to one mile.  Hopefully she can follow in Custom for Carlos’ stalking footsteps and sit just off the lead.  On the tickets where I spread, I’ll likely to focusing on #8 Much Rejoicing, who beat multiple next-out winners last time; #9 Buckleupbuttercup, who is on the massive improve; and probably a couple others – in addition to Amen Hallelujah of course. 

The Grade I Manhattan (Race 10) is a tough race for a Pick 4 sequence because the best horse is surrounded by question marks.  #1 Gio Ponti is the best horse in the race – there’s little arguing that.  But he’s first race back from Dubai – as is probably the second-best horse in the race, Take the Points.  So in terms of the Pick 4, do you just use the top two and hope they are 100%, or do you spread big time and risk having Gio Ponti win at 7-5 after using six horses?  (These are the types of questions that make this game fun.)  I’ll say this, I’m not only using Gio Ponti and Take the Points.  They’re both first race since a trip halfway around the world, and word is Gio Ponti missed some training time due to a foot problem.  Because of the foot issues – and because the following will not be 7-5 – I will focus my Pick 4 tickets on #5 Take the Points and #9 Just as Well.  The latter was my pick in the Dixie on Preakness Day and ran valiantly despite no pace in the race.  The Manhattan will be his third 2010 race, which may have him sitting on a peak effort.  I’ll use #1 Gio Ponti just as a saver, but will be rooting more heavily for others.

The Belmont Stakes ends the sequence and despite (or maybe because of) no Derby or Preakness winner, it appears an evenly-matched race on paper.  (Pet Peeve alert – of course it’s an evenly-matched race on paper, all the horses are right next to each other.)  Anyway, depending on how many different tickets I decide to play, I’ll use different horses on different tickets.  #6 Ice Box is my top choice and will be on all tickets.  In addition, on lesser-spreading tickets, I’ll use #5 Fly Down and #11 First Dude.  In wider-spreading tickets, I’ll add #3 Uptowncharlybrown, #4 Make Music For Me and #12 Interactif.  Obviously it will be easier to Monday morning quarterback after the race, but if you’re an Interactif fan, you have to love the reason for his entry in this race.  Apparently, trainer Todd Pletcher had Interactif gearing up for a start in the 3-year-old turf race on Belmont’s Friday card, but he was training so well that he wanted to try him in the Belmont.  Even though I think Interactif will turn out to be a better turf horse, that’s the type of confidence that I want to hear from a trainer heading into a big race.

I don’t really like giving out tickets this far in advance because I admittedly haven’t handicapped that hard or watched any race replays, but the following are two possible Pick 4 tickets based on early impressions:

$1 Pick 4 – Race 8

2 with 4/6/8/9 with 1/5/9 with 5/6/11 ($36 play)

2/3/9 with 6 with 1/5/9 with 3/4/5/6/11/12 ($54 play)

Brad Thomas’ Thursday Thoughts

Two turf horses of genuine quality won races at Monmouth Park this Monday and neither was the favorite – or even the second or third choice.

In the featured Grade III Eatontown, 7-1 South African import Gypsy’s Warning, first-time lasix off a long layoff, sustained a strong, steady run, despite a wide trip, to wear down relatively hard-used, fellow returnee, and 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf winner Maram.  Gypsy’s Warning is versatile enough to be on the pace and strong enough to get at least nine furlongs – maybe even ten.  She’s good enough to win the Grade I Diana at Saratoga if she gets the right trip.

In the 6^th race, 104-1 returnee The Cognac Kid broke his maiden by making an explosive, wide middle-move of uncommon length.  Very green last year at age two, he’s athletic and nimble as a maturing 3-year-old.  If he’s versatile enough to sit close early when better posted, the Amy Tarrant-owned and trained colt could be high-grade serious in the sophomore turf division.

Incidentally, Francisco Maysonett rode The Cognac Kid to victory at a $210 mutuel and also steered home Awesome Son at 14-1 on Sunday.  The former rallied while the latter speed-popped.  Long a capable but low profile jockey on this circuit, Maysonett has improved in the last few years and consistently delivers professional, intelligent, and hard-trying rides.  Trainers are slowly discovering him, but as for bettors…well, let’s try to keep him a secret amongst our own little circle!

Brad Thomas’ Trip Notes

Sunday

Race 6 – Splendored Things had some sprint speed as a juvenile, but is bred for stamina – particularly on her dam’s side.  She was off slow, made a quick move, continued to show sporadic run while near a dull rail most of the way, and finished deceptively well in her season debut.  Distance please!

Monday

Race 1 – Cold Draft battled two former stakes winners in an open claimer.  He’s eligible for a non-winners of two lifetime race and will be third off a layoff next time.

Race 4 – Emotional Lady worked uncommonly sharply for a J. Willard Thompson trainee and continued gamely late in her needed return.  She has a very strong NJ-bred pedigree.

Race 5 – Both Elite Miss and Basic Trick improved dramatically second off the bench in 2009.  Judging by their promising 2010 debuts, the same thing is likely to happen this season.  The former was full of run early, stayed in contention until upper stretch, and kept trying while racing near a dull rail at times.  The latter was slow to settle, like the true router she is, but pulled up well after the wire.

Getting down to business, tomorrow is Memorial Day!  That means we all have racing to think about instead of pondering what time to wake up or what beach to go to.  At Monmouth, a pair of turf races highlight the card.  The feature – and first graded stakes of the year – is the Grade III Eatontown for fillies and mares on the turf.  But – with all due respect to that race – I can’t get past the day’s eighth race as the most interesting on the card.

It’s only been about six or seven years since I truly became a horse racing enthusiast, but I’m pretty certain that Monday’s eighth race is the toughest allowance race I have ever seen.  #1 Ever a Friend is a Grade I winner.  #2 Pickapocket has made $300,000 and was second this year’s Sunshine Millions Turf.  #3 Sorrentino is a 3-time Group 1 winner in Brazil.  #4 Rogue Victory has been a favorite of mine for a while and appears on the improve.  #5 Violon Sacre is a 7-time European winner and gets Joe Bravo.  #6 Get Serious won four stakes races last year at Monmouth – three on the turf.  #7 Radical Sabbatical consistently runs Beyers in the mid 90’s and is a very solid horse.  #8 Pointing North is a Group 1 winner in South Africa.  And #10 Florentino is a speedy Grade II winner.

Yamma Hamma!!  That is one loaded allowance race.  Honestly, I don’t even know where to start when it comes to handicapping.  I’ll probably just sit back and watch, but I’m really looking forward to this race.

Two races later, the Grade III Eatontown Stakes features a competitive field of seven fillies and mares.  Morning line favorite Maram is a Breeders’ Cup Champion but hasn’t run in six months and may be a victim of pace.  She’s a deep closer in a race seemingly void of early speed. 

I’ve been waiting for #4 My Princess Jess to run a big race for a while now and will back on her side tomorrow.  She reunites with Joe Bravo who guided her to a stakes score at the Shore in 2008.  My Princess Jess spent 2009 knocking heads with some of the top turf fillies and mares and could relish this drop in class for her second start of the year.

Monday’s feature race at Belmont Park is the Grade 1 Met Mile.  Despite the presence of 4-5 morning line favorite Quality Road, the race came up super tough including the likes of Warrior’s Reward and locally based (meaning Monmouth Park) Musket Man. 

Quality Road is a monster.  He’s awesome.  He’s beastlike and I guess most importantly, he is very fast.  He can set the pace or sit just off and that makes him extremely dangerous.  In my opinion, the key to the race is how much pressure the other horses put on Quality Road.  Will Tizway send from Post No. 2 or try to sit just off?  With Le Grand Cru try to take it to Quality Road?  If they both send out of the gate, Quality Road might get caught in a tough, in-between horses spot down the backstretch.  If they both take back, Quality Road might have an easy trip and run off the screen.

I’m having trouble envisioning a scenario where Quality Road doesn’t run his race, but if he fails to fire, I would side with my top three from the Grade 2 Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby undercard.  I actually think #3 Musket Man is better than he looks on paper – which is pretty darn good.  (And I’m not just saying that because he’s my brother’s favorite horse.)  People forget he finished third (should have been second) in last year’s Derby and third (could have been second) in the Preakness.  There was nothing wrong with his second in the Grade 1 Carter earlier this year and maybe he was a little too far back last out.  With his best race, I think Musket Man has a shot to be right there.  #5 Kensei will have to rebound of his disappointing effort last out, but maybe a return to a fast track will help him.  He’s run some big races in his career, though might be just a notch below the top contenders in here.

The really interesting horse for me is #4 Warrior’s Reward.  He’s proven to be a monster at 7 furlongs and he received my favorite comment of all time last out – full of run.  Will one extra panel make any difference?  If it does, the likely second choice could be off the board.  If it doesn’t – and Quality Road gets caught up in some sort of speed duel – Warrior’s Reward might just Midnite Lute (in the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Sprint) past the field in the stretch. 

As of now, I’m thinking maybe a little three-horse exacta box (Musket Man, Warrior’s Reward, Quality Road) and an exacta key with Quality Road and MM, WR and Kensei.  I would actually love to get a little risky and try a Musket Man/Warrior’s Reward exacta box, but like I said before, I just can’t wrap my brain around Quality Road – a horse exiting a 121 Beyer – not finishing in the top two.

Enjoy an awesome day of racing tomorrow and good luck on all wagers!  Be sure to BBQ it up after the races too.

Brad Thomas’ Sunday Samplings

Saturday’s 3^rd race, a maiden special for NJ Breds, featured a dead heat for win between 6-1 Cadence King and 40-1 Bombast – both of whom were coming out of open, $12,500 maiden claimers at Philadelphia Park.

The winner of the 8^th race, a state-bred NW1 allowance for fillies and mares, was 9-2 Charmingmegan – who last raced in a claiming-price restricted starter race at Philly – and the runner-up, 7-1 Iron Countess, was exiting a $25,000 maiden claiming win at that same track.

Philadelphia Park-raced NJ-Breds, at any time during the Monmouth meeting, always deserve a long look – often at long odds – when they ship over for local restricted contests.  No matter how low their opening claiming price was, they still seem to fit if in reasonable form!

Brad Thomas’ Saturday Trip Notes

Race 1 – Violator improved dramatically off the bench, despite racing near the dull rail, while competing over a strip on which he drilled very sharply before his debut last season.

Returnee Run The Line held deceptively very well while hard-used at times and overmatched.

Race 2 – Jersey-bred layoff gelding Themanmythnlegend sustained a hidden middle move and proved once again that he likes the turf.  In very shrewd and capable hands, he just needs to find a softer spot.

Race 3 – Nicely-bred NJ-Bred firster Victor’s Boy fought hard on the dull rail for a barn whose stock invariably improves exponentially with racing.

Race 4 – Famous Patriot endured a bias and trip nightmare.