Handicapper Blog

Posted by Brian Skirka on Thursday, June 07, 2012 5:56 PM

“Will I’ll Have Another Win the Belmont Stakes and the Triple Crown?”


Really, isn’t that pretty much the only question we have to address this week?


We’ve had that exact poll question up on www.monmouthpark.com for about a week now and it seems pretty even – 53% yes, 47% no.


A week ago, I was in the current majority.  But with only two days until the big event, I’ve switched over to Team No.


I DO NOT think I’ll Have Another will win the Belmont Stakes.


I also don’t, however, know who WILL win the Belmont.  But I think it comes down to Union Rags or Dullahan.  Anyone other than one of those three winning would be a colossal upset.


Originally, I had thought I’ll Have Another would do it solely based on my psychic abilities.  You see, I’ll be in Montreal this weekend and therefore (based on the laws of fate) I predicted long ago that a horse would be alive for the Triple Crown and that personal favorite Get Stormy would be run in the Monmouth Stakes on Sunday. 


As it turns out, both are scheduled to come true. 


In my prophecy, however, I never said that a horse WOULD win the Triple Crown.  That recollection had me second-guessing my earlier believes about I’ll Have Another.  Additionally, my original feelings were that Union Rags would be the horse on the verge of immortality.  As it stands now, that feeling (and the laws of fate) lead me to believe that Union Rags may win the Belmont.


In a strict handicapping sense, I would select Dullahan over Union Rags solely because, due to traffic issues, Union Rags hasn’t run a real, full race since February – and that was his first start of the year.  Will he be fit enough and battle-tested enough to go a mile and a half?


While I probably won’t be able to watch the races (at least the undercard) until I get back from Montreal, I hope I am alive into the fourth and final leg on the $1 million guaranteed Pick 4 with Union Rags, Dullahan and I’ll Have Another.  


And while I haven’t looked at the PPs for the Monmouth Stakes yet, just the fact that Get Stormy, Presious Passion and Get Serious are in the field will most likely have me leaving money with my brother to bet on Data Link.


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Brian Skirka graduated from Rutgers University in 2007 with a degree in journalism. He currently works for Monmouth Park’s marketing and publicity departments and is in his fifth year working at the track. In the past, Brian’s work has also been published on www.thebigm.com and www.ntra.com.